High wind shear ripping into 97L
A strong tropical wave (97L) a few hundred miles east of Barbados in the Lesser Antilles Islands has grown less organized today as it tracks west at 15 - 20 mph. The wave is moving underneath an upper-level trough of low pressure, which is bringing 30 knots of wind shear to 97L. While there is a respectable amount of heavy thunderstorm activity associated with 97L, there is no longer any low-level spiral banding or rotation of the cloud pattern. This morning's QuikSCAT pass at 5:35 am EDT showed sustained winds of 35 mph a few hundred miles east of Barbados, but there was no surface circulation evident. The islands of Barbados, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, St. Lucia, and Martinique can expect heavy rain and wind gusts to 50 mph as 97L moves through the Lesser Antilles Islands this afternoon and tonight, but 97L will not become a tropical depression.
Wind shear along the path of 97L is forecast to remain in the high 25 - 35 knot range for at least the next three days. This should prevent further development of 97L, and I expect the disturbance will be gradually torn apart during the next few days. The National Hurricane Center gives 97L a low (less than 30% chance) of developing into a tropical depression in the next 48 hours. None of the computer models are forecasting any tropical storm development over the next seven days.
Figure 1. Current satellite image of African wave 97L.
I'll have an update Tuesday morning. As 97L moves through the islands, you may want to follow local observations there using our wundermap for the region.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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where was 95L
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON JUL 20 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE VICINITY OF THE LESSER ANTILLES IS PRODUCING
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE WAVE MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20
MPH INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/PASCH
It was that non-tropical low pressure system SW of the Azores a couple weeks ago.
AOI
AOI
AOI
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 800 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF THE AZORES. HOWEVER...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES EASTWARD
NEAR 10 MPH TOWARD COOLER WATERS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS
THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
Copy and paste....a real yawner.....
that was 94L
90L was the area in the Gulf
91L became TD #1
92L was the subtropical system in the NE Atlantic in the beginning of June
93L was the infamous area in the SW Caribbean
94L was another non tropical system in the North Atlantic
IT DEAD,dead ,dead ,etc etc ,etc, etc
hostile enviroment
that was 94L not 95L
You are saying you think they should have designated, but they did not. There has not been a 95L this year.
Actually, it was 94L. 95L and 96L are yet to exist this season (however the carolinas wave, the bahamas wave, and the east atlantic waves could become one of them).
Hmmm you may be right...couldve sworn i remember a 95L
maybe 95E? lol
"See you in August!"
Remember the wave that was ahead of it? Look where the convection is at now...Bahamas, northward.
With another front/trough, coming down this weekend, 97L should do what the previous blob did and wind up near the Bahamas.
and that is where development is likely to happen
I think you'll be right.
Clock is ticking...11 days left in July.
A) Meat Balls
B) Chicken Croquettes with mashed potatos and cream sauce
C) Pot Pie
I agree, if it does happen it will be there. It will not be in the eastern Caribbean.
The John Hope rule applies...if it hasn't developed by the eastern Caribbean, it won't until the western Caribbean...
97L won't even make it to the western Caribbean. Bahamian area....
That is the problem, it won't die, and it won't develop, just a nuisance.
Just some flare ups from the ITCZ.
Question;
Does the speed of a system make any difference concerning the amount of shear it can take?
thanks
i agree with ya taz
its like a bad toothache
IT WONT GO AWAY!
No, that wave came off of africa
lol
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