High wind shear ripping into 97L
A strong tropical wave (97L) a few hundred miles east of Barbados in the Lesser Antilles Islands has grown less organized today as it tracks west at 15 - 20 mph. The wave is moving underneath an upper-level trough of low pressure, which is bringing 30 knots of wind shear to 97L. While there is a respectable amount of heavy thunderstorm activity associated with 97L, there is no longer any low-level spiral banding or rotation of the cloud pattern. This morning's QuikSCAT pass at 5:35 am EDT showed sustained winds of 35 mph a few hundred miles east of Barbados, but there was no surface circulation evident. The islands of Barbados, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, St. Lucia, and Martinique can expect heavy rain and wind gusts to 50 mph as 97L moves through the Lesser Antilles Islands this afternoon and tonight, but 97L will not become a tropical depression.
Wind shear along the path of 97L is forecast to remain in the high 25 - 35 knot range for at least the next three days. This should prevent further development of 97L, and I expect the disturbance will be gradually torn apart during the next few days. The National Hurricane Center gives 97L a low (less than 30% chance) of developing into a tropical depression in the next 48 hours. None of the computer models are forecasting any tropical storm development over the next seven days.
Figure 1. Current satellite image of African wave 97L.
I'll have an update Tuesday morning. As 97L moves through the islands, you may want to follow local observations there using our wundermap for the region.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Your not alone... I had my first hail storm in April when a very strong MCC crossed through my area. I got Quarter Sized hail for about 4 minutes. I believe VIL was around the 65-70 range when I got the hail.
not gonna develop anytime soon and prolly not at all.
Despite the fact that they make it seem common on TV, hail is actually rare. This the first time I have seen hail in my life, and have never experience winds like that in a typical thunderstorm.
What's with that initialization point?
Made me go whoa.
Never seen you before, and I will never see you again...bye, bye!
The GFS doesnt develop it in the Caribbean anyway, it develops it north of the Bahamas
all the comments say it is being sheared to pieces but it is still maintaining convection that is interesting I thought no convection would be left by now. Looks like another day of shear talk.
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browsh.html
Well, earlier today the 500mb vorticity maxima was displaced toward the northeast because of shear. Now it seems more located closer to the COC, indicating that lessening effects of shear.
Current 500mb vort max.
3hrs ago
Why do you continually ignore the ones who say that 97L is not going to undergo tropical cyclogenesis? O_O
Call me a fool if you will, but I agree with him in that 97L is not going to develop, at least in the short-term.
good.
you try to develop every little blob that pops up. if people listened to you, we'd have about 5-6 TS's already.
Futuremet....we will just have to wait and see, I guess :)
This storm has already defied odds, and has been extremely hard to forecast.
Wow, that was only the second time I've seen hail since I've lived here.
shear is 30-40 kts over most of the Caribbean now.
It is rare, especially in Southern Florida.
How strong did the wind's get? 50 Knots?
Yes, the winds were sustained 40MPH for 10 minutes with higher gusts.
Wrongoo.. Shear is slightly moving north. Currently shear is 20-25 knots over 97L. It seems to be doing a great job staying together. Don't write off a storm that quick buddy.
*To add to that, YES shear is increasing in the Carribean, but 97L is forecasted to move north into the Bahamas in a few days into lower wind shear. If it could outstand shear today, I give it at least a low chance shear won't rip it apart.
Its trying to stay south of the 30 line
Just put him on ignore, reedzone.
I doubt he'll even remember any of what he's posted tomorrow. He's got to be BUI.
actually it has been pretty civil the last few hours
I agree,
I'm not writing 97L off until it's over land. That thing has been through hell and back. 25 Knot's of shear is a normal day for this Tropical Wave.
I can tell he is a troll right away
Heck, even Dolly last year took a long time to form.
Ohh Fun...
You didn't take any video? lol
All he said was that 97L might not form at all, which is always possible.
um that would be BWI lol
He will probably bust the season next, so just got rid of him early. Plus, he did not give any facts or anything, he just wrote off 97L
IR Channel 2 Loop
Look closely and speed it up if the need be and you'll notice a low level circulation corresponding to the 850MB VORT MAX moving away (West) from the convection as the convection starts to decay. Geographically speaking... West of Martinique.
Let's see what will happen tomorrow AM after DMAX peaks out.
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