High wind shear ripping into 97L
A strong tropical wave (97L) a few hundred miles east of Barbados in the Lesser Antilles Islands has grown less organized today as it tracks west at 15 - 20 mph. The wave is moving underneath an upper-level trough of low pressure, which is bringing 30 knots of wind shear to 97L. While there is a respectable amount of heavy thunderstorm activity associated with 97L, there is no longer any low-level spiral banding or rotation of the cloud pattern. This morning's QuikSCAT pass at 5:35 am EDT showed sustained winds of 35 mph a few hundred miles east of Barbados, but there was no surface circulation evident. The islands of Barbados, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, St. Lucia, and Martinique can expect heavy rain and wind gusts to 50 mph as 97L moves through the Lesser Antilles Islands this afternoon and tonight, but 97L will not become a tropical depression.
Wind shear along the path of 97L is forecast to remain in the high 25 - 35 knot range for at least the next three days. This should prevent further development of 97L, and I expect the disturbance will be gradually torn apart during the next few days. The National Hurricane Center gives 97L a low (less than 30% chance) of developing into a tropical depression in the next 48 hours. None of the computer models are forecasting any tropical storm development over the next seven days.
Figure 1. Current satellite image of African wave 97L.
I'll have an update Tuesday morning. As 97L moves through the islands, you may want to follow local observations there using our wundermap for the region.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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One is wee, 2 why can't we, three something could be
I ask myself, will there be
I tell myself, not out of these three
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE JUL 21 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. HOWEVER...UPPER-
LEVEL WINDS REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AT
THIS TIME. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO TODAY AS THE WAVE MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN
30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE
NORTHERN BAHAMA ISLANDS THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...SURFACE PRESSURES
IN THE AREA ARE HIGH...AND THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
It wants to be IKE, lol. I hear the rocky theme in the background.
Link
Crown Weather Tropical Weather Page:
Link
Yup (gives some on here "hope" and something to discuss) but ain't nothing happening unless the sheer drops..... :)
Buoy Station 42060
East Caribbean
16.500 N 63.500 W (16°30'0" N 63°30'0" W)63%uFFFD30'0" W)
Winds from the east
Click over graphic to go to 42060
Second invest... hmmm. That is about where my dream of few nights ago put Ana. Good thing that I am not precognitive - In the dream the storm moved quite rapidly -Woke me up about the time, I realized that I did not quite have my storm supplies together.
EDITED: To correct mouse over link.
I wouldn't expect any development until it gets into the Bahamas in 2-3 days. It is maintaining it's lower level, San Juan Radar
Forgot about that Doppler location....Thanks for the link.....(we need some kind of agreement with Cuba for a readily aaccessible doppler site over there....The next adjacent ones are Miami and Key West)
(1)What is DMAX?
(2)What is DMIN?
(3)I never RIP-ed it!
(4)Convection is firing up.
(5)Convection is going away.
(6)Season is a bust.
Nice to see you looking a little "deeper" into the "whys" of what is happening which is the whole purpose of the Blog; If I recall two days ago, you were worried about a model track towards Miami and I told you to chill and have your season supplies for when/if a storm threatens in the future....Did you get your Hurricane kit ready yet?..... :)
you forgot
(7) Why did the NHC get it so wrong?
(8) How come they havent named this yet
(9) Shut up JFV
Correct... I'm still hoping the shear will be strong enough to push the majority of the deep convection south of DR or at least keep it in the coastal areas.
The problem will be if the convection gets to the mountainous area of Central DR since it is here where all the problems starts.
Cuba Radar Page
don't forget "most common things said on the blog"
Cuba radar
I see it on there.
nice blob of former 97l
It's still 97L, not former 97L.
You forgot
(10) this looks like a category 4 hurricane
(11) this will go poof tonight
(12) that's not tropical
Puerto Rican radar shows 97L at its best in quite a while.
oh gosh.. please for the sake of this blog nhc, dont declare the bahamas area 98L (or 96L, whichever direction they're going lol)
have we ever been through an entire list of invests (90L-99L) without any of them forming into named storms?
Thanks
No.
They officially have it at 14, 61.5...that's wrong. 97L has morphed to the NW.
Wundermap97L
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