High wind shear ripping into 97L
A strong tropical wave (97L) a few hundred miles east of Barbados in the Lesser Antilles Islands has grown less organized today as it tracks west at 15 - 20 mph. The wave is moving underneath an upper-level trough of low pressure, which is bringing 30 knots of wind shear to 97L. While there is a respectable amount of heavy thunderstorm activity associated with 97L, there is no longer any low-level spiral banding or rotation of the cloud pattern. This morning's QuikSCAT pass at 5:35 am EDT showed sustained winds of 35 mph a few hundred miles east of Barbados, but there was no surface circulation evident. The islands of Barbados, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, St. Lucia, and Martinique can expect heavy rain and wind gusts to 50 mph as 97L moves through the Lesser Antilles Islands this afternoon and tonight, but 97L will not become a tropical depression.
Wind shear along the path of 97L is forecast to remain in the high 25 - 35 knot range for at least the next three days. This should prevent further development of 97L, and I expect the disturbance will be gradually torn apart during the next few days. The National Hurricane Center gives 97L a low (less than 30% chance) of developing into a tropical depression in the next 48 hours. None of the computer models are forecasting any tropical storm development over the next seven days.
Figure 1. Current satellite image of African wave 97L.
I'll have an update Tuesday morning. As 97L moves through the islands, you may want to follow local observations there using our wundermap for the region.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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systems find ways to develop Chicklit, it has happened many times in the past
could very well be i was just looking at the vis sat loop, sometime its very hard to pinpoint if anything is there at all.
The 'other' shear map isn't showing much difference.
That isnt matching what I have from CIMSS at all
INV/97L/XX
MARK
13.5N/58.8W
Model Performance Statistics for AL972009
Couldn't find a more recent one, but it's in the 'ballpark'. Just for some comparison.
Ed Bilicki
20 July 2009 | Oriental
Wx Update, E Caribbean, Mon20, 9am 6am gridded QuickScat: E of Leewards E25kts, W of Leewards to Puerto Rico E18-20kts Windwards E/18-20kts, W of Windwards to just N of Venezuela E10-15kts. Data NA W of 65W IMAGERY: Showers S of DomRep and N of Puerto Rico. Area of strong Squalls (35-40kts) centered near 13.5N 56W. Lighter squalls/showers just departing Windwards and just N of Venezuela. SYNOPSIS: Tropical waves are training across the South Atlantic. This morning a high amplitude wave is extending from 24N 68W S thru the DomRep near 15N 73W and continues S to 9N 73W along the Columbian coast is moving to the west at about 18kts. Strong scattered rainsqualls are associated with the wave from S of DomRep to the Columbian Coast, then trails South to the NE Colombian Coast. This high amplitude wave will continue to move west today and by Tue21 morning will stretch from the Fla. Keys over W Cuba and across the Western Caribbean to Panama. Showers/Squalls will continue with the wave expect 40kt gusts in squalls from S of Cuba to Panama. Northern Portion of Wave will interact with old stationary front in Northern Fla and produce enhanced showers along the Fla. peninsula. A second wave is moving closer to the Eastern Caribbean and should move over the Islands S of Puerto Rico tomorrow Tue21. Its current position is near 18N 54W and extends South to near the Central American Coast, this wave is moving to the W at 17kts and satellite imagery and progs indicate possible squalls to 40kts near 15N with moderate shower, squalls associated with the rest of the wave. A third wave is near 42W and extends South from 17N to 5N. This wave is tending toward a bit more amplitude by Tue21 it will extend from 19N 52W south to 8N 52W. If trend continues this wave will have an affect on the entire Eastern Caribbean from DomRep to Venezuela Wed22. Enhanced showers with Squalls are possible with this wave. Other waves appear to expected to develop in the wake of these three will advise on there position and movements as they close on the Eastern Caribbean. OUTLOOK Waves training across the South Atlantic will continue and expect stronger convective activity as the waves move thru the region. Hurricane prediction models are not indicating any of these waves to develop into a Tropical Depression and the long range progs are not forming any circulation associated with the Waves however an Area of large seas is associated with the waves and will produce large swells in the region N of the Martinigue thru most of the week.
Hey Drak,Chicklit,MLC,Press its been a while since i have talked to you all.
Sheri
Could upper level diffluence make it look bigger than it actually is?
I don't know why no one is looking at what's east of this.
Yes, imo.
Yeah KEH, I'd say it would be about those co-ordinates according to the models.
Like the guy at the gym with the huge muscles and tiny feet. LOL
While the SSD underrates it (Though I haven't seen that map in a long time on here, took a bit to dig it out).
But as both are roughly the same, maybe the Invest is just a little fighter for the moment.
I'm thinking more like 13.2n, 60.2w with the coc exposed and convection sheared off to the east.
Tortola, British Virgin Islands
Weathercam
Link
WeatherCam, enter "public" as username & "weather" as password
Hi Sheri. Good to seeya. 97L should have been dead last night but she's still here this morning. We're beatin' a dead horse here IMO. But like someone said, if it brings lots of rains to Hispaniola, they'll have big problems there, so needs to be watched. Also shear is fluctuating as are the other elements in the atmosphere that affect cyclogenesis. Waters are warm, too, and it is that time of year, so everyone's watching every beat of its weary little heart...
take the Z off the end right before the .GIF, that is the map I am using
A username and password are being requested by http://76.76.172.250:8080. The site says: "GeneralUser/Administrator"
I got that too, its because someone posted something that needs authorization to read
Hey, Sheri! Good to see you. Hope all is well in your neck of the woods! ;)
97L is gonna have a tough time being much more than it is - substantial shear; but, you're right, it is one heckuva fighter! We'll see.
Im getting the same thing!
I got the same thing too.
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