High wind shear ripping into 97L

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:49 PM GMT on July 20, 2009

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A strong tropical wave (97L) a few hundred miles east of Barbados in the Lesser Antilles Islands has grown less organized today as it tracks west at 15 - 20 mph. The wave is moving underneath an upper-level trough of low pressure, which is bringing 30 knots of wind shear to 97L. While there is a respectable amount of heavy thunderstorm activity associated with 97L, there is no longer any low-level spiral banding or rotation of the cloud pattern. This morning's QuikSCAT pass at 5:35 am EDT showed sustained winds of 35 mph a few hundred miles east of Barbados, but there was no surface circulation evident. The islands of Barbados, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, St. Lucia, and Martinique can expect heavy rain and wind gusts to 50 mph as 97L moves through the Lesser Antilles Islands this afternoon and tonight, but 97L will not become a tropical depression.

Wind shear along the path of 97L is forecast to remain in the high 25 - 35 knot range for at least the next three days. This should prevent further development of 97L, and I expect the disturbance will be gradually torn apart during the next few days. The National Hurricane Center gives 97L a low (less than 30% chance) of developing into a tropical depression in the next 48 hours. None of the computer models are forecasting any tropical storm development over the next seven days.


Figure 1. Current satellite image of African wave 97L.

I'll have an update Tuesday morning. As 97L moves through the islands, you may want to follow local observations there using our wundermap for the region.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting gator23:


Local mets here in MIA are saying it will interact with low pressure that is now over Louisiana and bring heavy rain and wind to MIA


that sounds about right, several forecast models are taking all that energy that will be by the Bahamas late in the week and developing it into a storm
2262. gator23
Quoting Orcasystems:


Ummm you have been saying it was going to be dead every day for the last 4 days....

I think the only thing that might kill it is landfall interruptis


Local mets here in MIA are saying it will interact with low pressure that is now over Louisiana and bring heavy rain and wind to MIA
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I see that many people argue about things that doesn't have any relevance, of course is a rare event for a hurricane to hit S.A. But as everything in the world there had been some exceptions. But northen S.A. specialy Venezuela/Columbia coast gets hit by rain and winds from systems thas skirts the coast hitting, Trinidad and Tobago, The Grenadines, and Curacao.
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Quoting TampaSpin:
2215. BurnedAfterPosting 11:36 PM EDT on July 20, 2009

Am i allowed to say i told you so yet......LOL....just kidding!


Ummm you have been saying it was going to be dead every day for the last 4 days....

I think the only thing that might kill it is landfall interruptis
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Quoting TampaFLUSA:

Where in Jersey? I lived in Toms River at one time.
Seaside Heights brother!
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Hi everyone, I updated my blog a few minutes ago. Take care to see it. I will try to get better at it.
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Quoting TampaSpin:


Wow...just looked at mother's temp in southern Indiana and its 66deg now...while its 81 in Tampa


We hit 39.2 here today according to my weather station... and its suppose to get hotter every day this week.


39.2 C = 102.6 F
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Quoting BenBIogger:


The Brick Wall Of Shear.


yeppers.....but, yet we don't know anything at all tho......LOL....good job Ben!
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
2255. gator23
Howdy Y'all night crowds around eh?
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2215. BurnedAfterPosting 11:36 PM EDT on July 20, 2009

Am i allowed to say i told you so yet......LOL....just kidding!
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
Good Night All! Don't let the troll bug bite
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Quoting TampaSpin:
Looks like 97L hit the break wall that i have been telling everyone it would.


The Brick Wall Of Shear.
Member Since: March 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1421
Quoting Orcasystems:


Cold front???
We are in a massive heat wave and huge forest fires. Would kill for a cold front and some rain.



Wow...just looked at mother's temp in southern Indiana and its 66deg now...while its 81 in Tampa
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
Quoting popartpete:
I live on the Jersey Shore. About every fifty years, we get a pattern like this that sets up and brings us trains of tropical storms. The the '54 and 55 years are the most recent example. I have a fear that the tropical choo-choo train that comes calling to these neck of the woods every half century or so ago is back for a northeast U.S. visit, maybe with a few friends. It's happened before. We generally get hit on the left, weaker side as a storm parallels the coast, but we could get powerful winds if we in its circulation, which the models I've seen suggest it may do. Does anyone have a thought on this? How long will this current pattern last? From my observation, he Atlantic is in full bloom of tropical heat and moisture, and Mother Nature appears determined to equal pressure to the poles, and provide for the necessary for the equilibrium, but sometimes plague to populated lands: a tropical cyclone.

Where in Jersey? I lived in Toms River at one time.
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Quoting PanhandleChuck:


Thanks Lonestar

This is the worst infestation that I've seen in my 2 years on here
For infestations img src="
you will need img src="
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2248. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)


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Quoting PanhandleChuck:
See I don't know what I'm talking about, so I sit back, shut up and learn from the ones that do know what is going on. How many ignore's can one have?


I got over 20 but, close to 10 more should be......LOL
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
2246. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin Number FIVE
DEEP DEPRESSION BOB03-2009
5:30 AM IST July 21 2009
===================================

Subject: Deep Depression over north Orissa.

At 0:00 AM UTC, Deep Depression BOB03-2009 over north Orissa moved further west-northwestwards and lays centered over north Orissa, about 50 km northeast of Jharsuguda.

The system is likely to move in a west-northwesterly direction and weaken gradually.

---
Impressive nearly 8 hrs overland and it is still a 30kts Deep Depression. Those darn cyclone that remain strong on land. XD
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Quoting TampaSpin:


Did that cold front cool you down some up there


Cold front???
We are in a massive heat wave and huge forest fires. Would kill for a cold front and some rain.

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Thanks Hd
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Looks like 97L hit the break wall that i have been telling everyone it would.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
I live on the Jersey Shore. About every fifty years, we get a pattern like this that sets up and brings us trains of tropical storms. The the '54 and 55 years are the most recent example. I have a fear that the tropical choo-choo train that comes calling to these neck of the woods every half century or so ago is back for a northeast U.S. visit, maybe with a few friends. It's happened before. We generally get hit on the left, weaker side as a storm parallels the coast, but we could get powerful winds if we in its circulation, which the models I've seen suggest it may do. Does anyone have a thought on this? How long will this current pattern last? From my observation, he Atlantic is in full bloom of tropical heat and moisture, and Mother Nature appears determined to equal pressure to the poles, and provide for the necessary for the equilibrium, but sometimes plague to populated lands: a tropical cyclone.
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See I don't know what I'm talking about, so I sit back, shut up and learn from the ones that do know what is going on. How many ignore's can one have?
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Just copy the properties of the image, hit the image ...paste that and input 650 and 550 as the height and width.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
Quoting PanhandleChuck:


Thanks Lonestar

This is the worst infestation that I've seen in my 2 years on here

No problem, glad to help!
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2238. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
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Quoting Orcasystems:
ops


Did that cold front cool you down some up there
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
Quoting PanhandleChuck:
I haven't seen it all year, so I'm gonna break it out

<>imgsrc=http://thatwoman.files.wordpress.com/2008/06/troll_spray.jpg
put the ">" after "jpg"...I believe you also need a space between "img" and "src"

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2235. hydrus
Quoting TampaFLUSA:

I don't, it could be the high clouds giving the illusion.
Thanks-probably tired eyes,long day.
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Quoting PanhandleChuck:


oh well I tried, someone else break out the troll spray

The easiest way is to hit the image button, go to the page w/the image and right click and copy image url, fill in the image space when you hit the image box and click through when it asks for size. The blog will automatically resize it.
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Quoting PanhandleChuck:


Thanks Lonestar

This is the worst infestation that I've seen in my 2 years on here


I agree......even those that are not trolls that have no idea what is going on try to act like it.....its going to be a very long tropical season.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
ops
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Quoting TampaSpin:


Chuck don't tell me there has been a troll on here today.....not possible......LOL


Thanks Lonestar

This is the worst infestation that I've seen in my 2 years on here
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
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Quoting PanhandleChuck:


oh well I tried, someone else break out the troll spray


Chuck don't tell me there has been a troll on here today.....not possible......LOL
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
Quoting hydrus:
Tampa-if you have a moment,use the rgb infra red satellite loop and zoom in on that small blob off of Nicaragua.Is that a spin cranking up down there?

I don't, it could be the high clouds giving the illusion.
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Quoting hydrus:
Tampa-if you have a moment,use the rgb infra red satellite loop and zoom in on that small blob off of Nicaragua.Is that a spin cranking up down there?


Maybe something in the very upper levels but, nothing showing up on Vorticity at 850 or 550 so its way up there
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
Quoting TampaFLUSA:
Hurricane 101 Hurricanes DON'T hit S America..

One hurricane developed and hit South America back a few years ago in March, which would be their fall. They coined it Catarina. Google or Wikipedia it.
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Quoting PanhandleChuck:
I haven't seen it all year, so I'm gonna break it out

<>imgsrc=http://thatwoman.files.wordpress.com/2008/06/troll_spray.jpg


oh well I tried, someone else break out the troll spray
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I haven't seen it all year, so I'm gonna break it out

<>imgsrc=http://thatwoman.files.wordpress.com/2008/06/troll_spray.jpg
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Quoting TampaFLUSA:

Skirting the coast and a direct hit are different.
So how many miles inland defines a "hit" in your book ? Your map AND Burned's map show S. America being impacted by a tropical cyclone of some sort. Instead of trying to save face, admit you were mistaken, its no biggee. Besides, the blob is not even any category of tropical cyclone.
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2222. hydrus
Quoting TampaFLUSA:

I'm not splitting hairs or arguing...most skirt the coast or hit the islands like Curacao.
Tampa-if you have a moment,use the rgb infra red satellite loop and zoom in on that small blob off of Nicaragua.Is that a spin cranking up down there?
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Quoting TampaMishy:
Oh ok thanks!


Hi Mishy.......no Storm coming yet.....Next week will be a different story tho.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
Quoting IKE:


Type in.....

< img src=

copy and paste http

>


***note..no space between < and the img src=***


Thanks Ike
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2217. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
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Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


that is way more than 3 lol, every storm on that map I showed made landfall somewhere in S America

I'm not splitting hairs or arguing...most skirt the coast or hit the islands like Curacao.
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Quoting spinzone:
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
1117 PM EDT MON JUL 20 2009


...POSSIBLE WAVE NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST THU INTO FRI...

ACCORDING TO MOST GUIDANCE LOW PRESSURE THAT MAY EVOLVE OFF THE
SERN/FL COAST LATE IN THE FCST PERIOD ORIGINATES FROM A TROPICAL
WAVE INITIALLY OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES. NOTE THAT MID LVL
ENERGY/HIGH MID LVL RH THAT THE NAM ANALYZES OVER THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS APPEAR TO BE OVERDONE OR TOO FAR NWD COMPARED TO SATL
IMAGERY. THE NAM IS THE STRONGEST OPERATIONAL MODEL AS THE SYSTEM
CROSSES CUBA BUT THEN MIGRATES TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE SPREAD BY
F84 EARLY FRI... WITH A TRACK SOMEWHAT E OF OTHER SOLNS.



yea that is what I was pointing out earlier and what the models are showing as well.
Oh ok thanks!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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