Late-starting hurricane seasons

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:01 PM GMT on July 29, 2009

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Late-starting hurricane seasons--ones where the first named storm of the year doesn't occur until August--have happened in eleven of the fifty years between 1960 - 2009 (a 22% occurrence.) Only two of these eleven seasons ended up with more hurricanes than average (seven or greater). The record for the latest starting hurricane season since 1851 was set in 1914, when the only storm of the season formed on September 15. The year 1941 was also late starting, with the season's first storm arriving on September 11. Of course, we didn't have satellites back then, so it's a good bet there were storms earlier in these seasons that got missed. However, there's a good possibility that 1914 really did have only one storm. A re-analysis of the hurricane activity in the decade 1911-1920 (Landsea et al., 2008) found 1.3 missing tropical cyclones per year, thanks to the inclusion of a new database of ship weather reports called COADS. However, 1914 was not one of those years. Various authors have estimated that we missed an average of between one and three tropical cyclones per year during that time period, so it is quite possible 1914 had only one storm.


Figure 1. The hurricane season of 1914 featured only one tropical storm, and was the latest-starting hurricane season on record (September 15).

The latest dates for the first named storm of the season in the recent past, followed by the number of named storms, hurricanes, and intense hurricanes that year are:

2009 (August 15) 9,3,2
2004 (August 1) 15,9,6
2000 (August 4) 15,8,3
1988 (August 7) 12,6,3
1987 (August 9) 7,3,1
1984 (August 18) 13,5,1
1983 (August 15) 4,2,1
1977 (August 30) 6,5,1
1967 (August 30) 8,6,2
1963 (August 2) 9,6,2
1962 (August 22) 5,3,1

We can also add 1992 to the list if we ignore the unnamed subtropical storm that formed in April of that year. That year had the notorious Hurricane Andrew as its first named storm. Andrew formed on August 17 of that year, and was the only major hurricane in a year that had only seven named storms and four hurricanes. For comparison, an average Atlantic hurricane season has 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. So, it is a good bet that 2009 will be a below-average season.

References
Landsea, C. W. , D. A. Glenn, W. Bredemeyer, M. Chenoweth, R. Ellis J. Gamache, L. Hufstetler, C. Mock, R. Perez, R. Prieto, J. Sanchez-Sesma, D. Thomas, and L. Woolcock, 2008, A Reanalysis of the 1911-20 Atlantic Hurricane Database", Journal of Climate, 21, p.2138-2168.

Jeff Masters

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Jeff, try these:http://www.research.gov/rgov/anonymous.portal?_nfpb=true&_windowLabel=news_1_1&news_1_1_action Override=%2Fgov%2Fresearch%2Fcore%2Fcms%2Fnews%2Fbegin&news_1_1nodePath=%2FBEA+Repository%2Fnews%2Fi tems%2F1243954934872&_pageLabel=page_latest_news





http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/03/02/cooler-heads-at-noaa-coming-around-to-natural-variability/
http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=6609
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1009. Infowx
1949 started slowly; turned into a substancial season. 13 total storms. First storm developed on Aug 21st. 1961 had it's first storm on July 20th the next storm didn't form until Sept 2nd. 11 storms that year. That was the year of Carla. 1969 started slowly; first storm on Jul 25th. Season really got rolling on Aug 10th. Camille formed that year. 18 total storms. There was also a moderate El Nino present. At the end of Nov that year, H Martha affected Panama as a tropical storm. Very unusual to have land areas below 10 N affected. Other examples of slow starting significant seasons. Also important to note that all of those years were contained within the previous conveyor belt active period prior to the current one which started in 1995. The active period in the Atlantic tends to last about 40 years, in contrast to the inactive period (Most Recent, 1970-1994) which tends to last about 20 years. We are only 14 years into this new active phase; we could be in it for approx 24 more years. Slow periods can occur during the active period & Vice Versa.
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Also I was asked the question and the answer is iincluded in the August outlook. A downward phase in the MJO is expected for alteast the next week, not 2 weeks as all the model forecast are not in agreement in the latter. But you could say a downward motion is expected for the next 1-2 weeks. But one should not develop the misconception that TCs cannot form within the downphase of the MJO, they can and they did. For example the MJO axis is near Indonesia-W PAC but yet TD6 developed. In simple terms, it lowers not eliminate the chances TC genesis.
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1005. IKE
12Z CMC shows nothing through 144 hrs.....
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Here are some really cool high resolution Animations of hurricanes that you guys will enjoy.

Hurricane Ike

Hurricane Andrew

Hurricane Gustav

Hurricane Hugo

Hurricane Season 2008

Enjoy
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Quoting reedzone:
The GFS keeps going back from strong highs to strong east coast troughs.. It doesn't really know what the pattern will be in 2 weeks.


I'm hoping for a favourable pattern this year. Something like 2006, as it easier to track fish storms, it takes away the argument of "where it will hit"
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This special production video from XtremeHurricanes.com and Brian Osburn is a public service message that drives home the point that when a mandatory evacuation order is given, those affected should not wait, but leave immediately. Strong Category 4 and 5 hurricanes will do incredibly serious damage not just along the coast, but well inland. Don't be fooled into thinking you can "ride it out." That very well could be your worst, and last important decision you ever make.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 3617
Goodnight all.
Stay safe, play safe,no fighting, watch out for the trolls.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932
Quoting cg2916:

Well, GFS doesn't forecast development, but it is interesting to watch what is does with the tropical waves.


It develops two of the waves
Quoting Patrap:
..."I wanna be A Featured Blog Writer"...


It's a dirty story of a dirty man...
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
Quoting Patrap:



..."I wanna be A Featured Blog Writer"...

Great song
Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 2838
Quoting Weather456:


I could of swear you were not anticipating development through the 1-2 weeks of August based on the previous long-range models. Anyways my bad, if I misunderstood.

Well, GFS doesn't forecast development, but it is interesting to watch what is does with the tropical waves.
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995. IKE
Quoting Weather456:


I could of swear you were not anticipating development through the 1-2 weeks of August based on the previous long-range models. Anyways my bad, if I misunderstood.


You're right. I said no development through Aug. 13th. I didn't base it on the GFS alone.

I did jump on the GFS bandwagon back in early/middle June when it was showing Ana developing in the western Caribbean.

I understand your point about the GFS and it showing nothing through mid-August on the last several runs up until today.

I didn't base my decision on that model alone though. I looked at other models..CMC, NOGAPS and ECMWF.

Maybe something will spin up and prove me wrong...won't be a first.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
The GFS keeps going back from strong highs to strong east coast troughs.. It doesn't really know what the pattern will be in 2 weeks.
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Behind the the first wave, the GFS develops a another wave. Twin TCs. Though this is almost 2 weeks out so it has a low chance of verifying.

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..."I wanna be A Featured Blog Writer"...
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Quoting jeffs713:
972. I have to ask... where do you get that the oceans are overall staying cooler? Everything I have seen says they are average in most areas, with a few move above average areas. (there are some below average areas, but they are outnumbered by above average areas)


Running cooler....
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Quoting IKE:


Really? How?


I could of swear you were not anticipating development through the 1-2 weeks of August based on the previous long-range models. Anyways my bad, if I misunderstood.
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Quoting StormChaser81:




This is from thirteen days ago, so it should be a little bit warmer in certain spots.

Thanks
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932
Since 1900 (and prior to 2000) there have been 3 seasons with 15 or more storms:
1933 had 21, next year, 1934 had 11 (-10)
1969 had 18, next year, 1970 had 10 (-8)
1995 had 19, next year, 1996 had 13 (-6)
The average of those three would be -8
So, 2008 had 16 minus 8 and you get 8 named storms for 2009! It's all quite scientific.
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
Who would believe the GFS when it develops a system on just one run. There needs to be consecutive runs. There's an obvious difference between when the GFS shows nothing and when it all of a sudden does.
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Quoting PanhandleChuck:
Does the blob below PR have any potential?


Its nearing the dreaded dead zone.....dry air is in place...low shear...and Vorticity has increased...it does have some upper Divergence and lower convergence going on...i would say lets see what happens in the next 24hrs.
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Quoting AussieStorm:




This is from thirteen days ago, so it should be a little bit warmer in certain spots.
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983. IKE
Quoting Weather456:


But Ike, you believed the GFS when it was forecasting nothing.


Really? How?
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
972. I have to ask... where do you get that the oceans are overall staying cooler? Everything I have seen says they are average in most areas, with a few move above average areas. (there are some below average areas, but they are outnumbered by above average areas)
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Quoting Weather456:


But Ike, you beleived the GFS when it was forecasting nothing.


ah interesting thought lol
Quoting IKE:


12Z NOGAPS shows nothing in the eastern Atlantic.
Sorry GFS...I don't believe you.

Action:
Quote
| Ignore User


But Ike, you believed the GFS when it was forecasting nothing.
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12-hr Shear mid-Atlantic:
Link
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11174
out to sea?

how does that happen with the ridge the way it is at 168 hours?
Quoting hurricaneseason2006:
Weather456, congrats on becoming a featured blogger as it wa sno surprise there.


Thanks

nrtiwlnvragn,

I didnt know they kept the name and number but I think Daniel 2006 did the same thing.
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The GFS holds onto the system and pulls it out to sea.
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975. IKE
Quoting IKE:


Also has little to no model support.


12Z NOGAPS shows nothing in the eastern Atlantic.
Sorry GFS...I don't believe you.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
looks to pretty disorganized right now, convection is on the rise, but it would really have to get it's act together pretty quick, to turn into something. I really think its just going to be isolated showers for the islands.
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Quoting
Quoting WeatherStudent:
Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential, Aussie.

I no what it is.... i mean what is the current TCHP atm
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932
Now we have a "late starting " hurricane season.I see little changing in the near future.With the oceans overall being cooler, a much cooler than average middle and eastern third of the US,(except for the nw due to stalled air mass), i feel little will change. As always though always keep watch and not to let your guard down when or if major storms develop.
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Quoting PanhandleChuck:
Does the blob below PR have any potential?


No real potential with it, but should definitely bring quite a bit of heavy rains to C America.
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4928
Quoting Chicklit:
Oz, I'm not 'blog police,' but just reviewed Rules of the Road yesterday and this rule comes to mind:
No monomania.
mon⋅o⋅ma⋅ni⋅a  /ˌmɒnəˈmeɪniə, -ˈmeɪnyə/ Show Spelled Pronunciation [mon-uh-mey-nee-uh, -meyn-yuh] Show IPA
Use monomania in a Sentence
–noun 1. (no longer in technical use) a psychosis characterized by thoughts confined to one idea or group of ideas.
2. an inordinate or obsessive zeal for or interest in a single thing, idea, subject, or the like.

Origin:
1815–25; < NL; see mono-, -mania
Related forms:
mon⋅o⋅ma⋅ni⋅ac  /ˌmɒnəˈmeɪniˌæk/ Show Spelled Pronunciation [mon-uh-mey-nee-ak] Show IPA , noun
mon⋅o⋅ma⋅ni⋅a⋅cal  /ˌmɒnəməˈnaɪəkəl/ Show Spelled Pronunciation [mon-uh-muh-nahy-uh-kuhl] Show IPA , adjective
Dictionary.com Unabridged
Based on the Random House Dictionary, © Random House, Inc. 2009.

LOL. So does that mean we can't constantly focus on the fact that 90L & 92L were not named, and the NHC is being "too conservative" this year?
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Quoting Weather456:
Tropical depression 06E will likely become tropical depression 01C later today. This is typical of El Nino years. Most recently, 2006 had the impressive long-lived Ioke, the longest lasting Central Pacific Storm. In 2004, which omost of know was not a classic El Nino, much of the warm watesr were displaced in the central Pacific, that season ended up with 7 tropical depressions



I don't think 06E will become 01C. From the National Hurricane Operations Plan (coincidence the example is the same number):

The following rules apply for tropical cyclones passing from one basin to another: Retain the name if a tropical cyclone passes from one basin into another basin as a tropical cyclone; i.e., advisories are continuous. An unnamed tropical depression will also retain its number (e.g. Tropical Depression Six-E remains Tropical Depression Six-E) if it crosses into another area of responsibility. For unnamed tropical depressions moving from west to east across 180°, CPHC will use the associated Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s (JTWC) number and indicate JTWC in parentheses following the number. For named systems, CPHC will use the associated RSMC Tokyo name and provide the associated JTWC number in parentheses.

From my understanding of the policy, if 06E becomes a tropical storm in the CPHC basin, it will have a CPHC name. Confusing part is will it still have an East Pacific (06E) number or once named be designated a CPHC number (01)?
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968. IKE
Quoting CybrTeddy:

GFS? Lol. It will drop it next run you watch. It really has an issue with storms this year compared to last


Also has little to no model support.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting StormChaser81:

Whats the current TCHP?
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932
wave that just came off last night that is SSE of the CV Islands has some very nice turning with it
963. IKE
Quoting BenBIogger:



Really, I did?



I don't remember you picking 0-0-0. I remember someone else put that on here recently.

If 4-1-0 is your pick, so be it.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting IKE:
Vorticity increased in the eastern Caribbean...



Won't be surprised that this energy gets absorbed by the Colombian Low.
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4928
Quoting IKE:
1008 mb's....looks like the 12Z GFS has latched on to...Ana?....ghost storm?


GFS? Lol. It will drop it next run you watch. It really has an issue with storms this year compared to last
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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