Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Late-starting hurricane seasons

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:01 PM GMT on July 29, 2009

Late-starting hurricane seasons--ones where the first named storm of the year doesn't occur until August--have happened in eleven of the fifty years between 1960 - 2009 (a 22% occurrence.) Only two of these eleven seasons ended up with more hurricanes than average (seven or greater). The record for the latest starting hurricane season since 1851 was set in 1914, when the only storm of the season formed on September 15. The year 1941 was also late starting, with the season's first storm arriving on September 11. Of course, we didn't have satellites back then, so it's a good bet there were storms earlier in these seasons that got missed. However, there's a good possibility that 1914 really did have only one storm. A re-analysis of the hurricane activity in the decade 1911-1920 (Landsea et al., 2008) found 1.3 missing tropical cyclones per year, thanks to the inclusion of a new database of ship weather reports called COADS. However, 1914 was not one of those years. Various authors have estimated that we missed an average of between one and three tropical cyclones per year during that time period, so it is quite possible 1914 had only one storm.

Figure 1. The hurricane season of 1914 featured only one tropical storm, and was the latest-starting hurricane season on record (September 15).

The latest dates for the first named storm of the season in the recent past, followed by the number of named storms, hurricanes, and intense hurricanes that year are:

2009 (August 15) 9,3,2
2004 (August 1) 15,9,6
2000 (August 4) 15,8,3
1988 (August 7) 12,6,3
1987 (August 9) 7,3,1
1984 (August 18) 13,5,1
1983 (August 15) 4,2,1
1977 (August 30) 6,5,1
1967 (August 30) 8,6,2
1963 (August 2) 9,6,2
1962 (August 22) 5,3,1

We can also add 1992 to the list if we ignore the unnamed subtropical storm that formed in April of that year. That year had the notorious Hurricane Andrew as its first named storm. Andrew formed on August 17 of that year, and was the only major hurricane in a year that had only seven named storms and four hurricanes. For comparison, an average Atlantic hurricane season has 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. So, it is a good bet that 2009 will be a below-average season.

References
Landsea, C. W. , D. A. Glenn, W. Bredemeyer, M. Chenoweth, R. Ellis J. Gamache, L. Hufstetler, C. Mock, R. Perez, R. Prieto, J. Sanchez-Sesma, D. Thomas, and L. Woolcock, 2008, A Reanalysis of the 1911-20 Atlantic Hurricane Database", Journal of Climate, 21, p.2138-2168.

Jeff Masters

Categories: Hurricane

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851. stormwatcherCI 3:47 PM GMT on July 30, 2009
Quoting AussieStorm: Hey StormW Are you still going to be on Barometer Bob show tonight? Do you have a link so I can listen? hurricanehollow.com Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8039

852. BobinTampa 3:48 PM GMT on July 30, 2009
You should have named it "Imminent Landfall", that way it would be spelled correctly. :o) Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 508

853. Chicklit 3:50 PM GMT on July 30, 2009
Good Morning! CaribbeanLoop Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 10253

855. Chicklit 3:53 PM GMT on July 30, 2009
ShearMap Looks like that Caribbean wave is headed into 30-40 knots of shear. Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 10253

856. IKE 3:53 PM GMT on July 30, 2009
Quadruplets..... Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

857. SomeRandomTexan 3:53 PM GMT on July 30, 2009
Sounds exciting OZ... wish I could access youtube here at work.. but i will check it out at 2 when i get off Member Since: August 30, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1814

859. PensacolaDoug 3:54 PM GMT on July 30, 2009
Morn Brian. Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 4827

860. IKE 3:54 PM GMT on July 30, 2009
Quoting Chicklit: ShearMap Looks like that Caribbean wave is headed into 30-40 knots of shear. It's only hope is to go WNW. Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

863. AussieStorm 3:55 PM GMT on July 30, 2009
Quoting stormwatcherCI: hurricanehollow.com yeah i found it thanx Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 5 Comments: 13321

864. WxLogic 3:55 PM GMT on July 30, 2009
Quoting IKE: Quadruplets..... Ahh they're all girls... Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4667

865. PensacolaDoug 3:55 PM GMT on July 30, 2009
Good looking storm in the CPAC! Surfs up for Hawaii for few days I reckon! Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 4827

867. hurricanejunky 3:56 PM GMT on July 30, 2009
Morning all! Still 0,0,0 I see... The video should be good Oz... Member Since: August 28, 2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 2875

869. IKE 3:57 PM GMT on July 30, 2009
Quoting WxLogic: Ahh they're all girls... Good...girls are easier to raise....boys can be b-r-a-t-s.... Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

870. hahaguy 3:57 PM GMT on July 30, 2009
Wow the rain is really coming down hard here. Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 2838

871. hurricanejunky 3:58 PM GMT on July 30, 2009
Quoting hahaguy: Wow the rain is really coming down hard here. where is here? Member Since: August 28, 2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 2875

872. IKE 3:58 PM GMT on July 30, 2009
Latest GFS and NAM put the eastern Caribbean wave into Belize/Yucatan. Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

873. WxLogic 3:59 PM GMT on July 30, 2009
Quoting IKE: Good...girls are easier to raise....boys can be b-r-a-t-s.... But boys are low maintenance!!! Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4667

875. Chicklit 3:59 PM GMT on July 30, 2009
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 10253

877. hurricanejunky 4:01 PM GMT on July 30, 2009
Oz, There are always differing opinions...this is a boring season so far so between the poems and the video at least you're doing your part to entertain everyone. Sorry about the slew of emails...had some questions... Member Since: August 28, 2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 2875

878. hahaguy 4:01 PM GMT on July 30, 2009
Quoting hurricanejunky: where is here? At my work in Jensen Beach , FL Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 2838

880. AussieStorm 4:02 PM GMT on July 30, 2009
Quoting hahaguy: Wow the rain is really coming down hard here. where about's r u? Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 5 Comments: 13321

883. Chicklit 4:03 PM GMT on July 30, 2009
I am looking forward to Dr. Master's blog tomorrow. All of this 'much ado about nothing' has me feeling like it's just too quiet. If it appears 'too good to be true' it usually is. What's with the March of the Quadbloblets out in the Atlantic? Wish I understood... Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 10253

884. hahaguy 4:03 PM GMT on July 30, 2009
Quoting AussieStorm: where about's r u? South Florida Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 2838

887. mikatnight 4:03 PM GMT on July 30, 2009
Quoting CycloneOz: 1:00 minute left. Upload to be complete! :) How exciting! Does it involve a profound revelation? Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1967

888. Chicklit 4:05 PM GMT on July 30, 2009
Quoting WxLogic: But boys are low maintenance!!! Wouldn't that be girl,boy,girl,boy? Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 10253

890. keywestdingding 4:07 PM GMT on July 30, 2009
IS IT ME OR IS THE EL NINO SETTING UP LIKE IT DID IN 2004. LOOKS LIKE THE WATERS ARE COOLING OFF ON THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST. Member Since: March 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 88

891. AussieStorm 4:08 PM GMT on July 30, 2009
Quoting sammywammybamy: Same Here.... Cellls all around floridas est coast I see what you mean Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 5 Comments: 13321

892. BenBIogger 4:10 PM GMT on July 30, 2009
Member Since: March 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1419

893. KenBaughman 4:10 PM GMT on July 30, 2009
August 1992 = Andrew.

895. GBguy88 4:12 PM GMT on July 30, 2009
Anyone really care about that new depression that looks very much like it's already a tropical storm? Models bring it awfully close to Hawaii...could really be worth watching. Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 444

897. AussieStorm 4:12 PM GMT on July 30, 2009
Quoting WeatherStudent: I get the feeling that we're all going to be paying dearly for this overly extended period of quietness in the basin, sooner rather then later that is, chicklet. Especially if something either begins in the GOM or moves into the GOM. With these temps.... omg I don't want to think about what might happen. Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 5 Comments: 13321

898. BurnedAfterPosting 4:12 PM GMT on July 30, 2009
Quoting GBguy88: Anyone really care about that new depression that looks very much like it's already a tropical storm? Models bring it awfully close to Hawaii...could really be worth watching. Its been talked about all morning on here

899. IKE 4:13 PM GMT on July 30, 2009
Quoting Chicklit: Wouldn't that be girl,boy,girl,boy? ah...that's Boy George....one of their best:) Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

900. extreme236 4:14 PM GMT on July 30, 2009
Quoting GBguy88: Anyone really care about that new depression that looks very much like it's already a tropical storm? Models bring it awfully close to Hawaii...could really be worth watching. Atmospheric conditions beyond 36 hours according to the NHC will be unfavorable. Doubt its of huge concern to Hawaii. Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234

901. AussieStorm 4:14 PM GMT on July 30, 2009
Quoting GBguy88: Anyone really care about that new depression that looks very much like it's already a tropical storm? Models bring it awfully close to Hawaii...could really be worth watching. It has been noted already. Wont come close to Hawaii. will be a fish-storm Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 5 Comments: 13321

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