Late-starting hurricane seasons

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:01 PM GMT on July 29, 2009

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Late-starting hurricane seasons--ones where the first named storm of the year doesn't occur until August--have happened in eleven of the fifty years between 1960 - 2009 (a 22% occurrence.) Only two of these eleven seasons ended up with more hurricanes than average (seven or greater). The record for the latest starting hurricane season since 1851 was set in 1914, when the only storm of the season formed on September 15. The year 1941 was also late starting, with the season's first storm arriving on September 11. Of course, we didn't have satellites back then, so it's a good bet there were storms earlier in these seasons that got missed. However, there's a good possibility that 1914 really did have only one storm. A re-analysis of the hurricane activity in the decade 1911-1920 (Landsea et al., 2008) found 1.3 missing tropical cyclones per year, thanks to the inclusion of a new database of ship weather reports called COADS. However, 1914 was not one of those years. Various authors have estimated that we missed an average of between one and three tropical cyclones per year during that time period, so it is quite possible 1914 had only one storm.


Figure 1. The hurricane season of 1914 featured only one tropical storm, and was the latest-starting hurricane season on record (September 15).

The latest dates for the first named storm of the season in the recent past, followed by the number of named storms, hurricanes, and intense hurricanes that year are:

2009 (August 15) 9,3,2
2004 (August 1) 15,9,6
2000 (August 4) 15,8,3
1988 (August 7) 12,6,3
1987 (August 9) 7,3,1
1984 (August 18) 13,5,1
1983 (August 15) 4,2,1
1977 (August 30) 6,5,1
1967 (August 30) 8,6,2
1963 (August 2) 9,6,2
1962 (August 22) 5,3,1

We can also add 1992 to the list if we ignore the unnamed subtropical storm that formed in April of that year. That year had the notorious Hurricane Andrew as its first named storm. Andrew formed on August 17 of that year, and was the only major hurricane in a year that had only seven named storms and four hurricanes. For comparison, an average Atlantic hurricane season has 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. So, it is a good bet that 2009 will be a below-average season.

References
Landsea, C. W. , D. A. Glenn, W. Bredemeyer, M. Chenoweth, R. Ellis J. Gamache, L. Hufstetler, C. Mock, R. Perez, R. Prieto, J. Sanchez-Sesma, D. Thomas, and L. Woolcock, 2008, A Reanalysis of the 1911-20 Atlantic Hurricane Database", Journal of Climate, 21, p.2138-2168.

Jeff Masters

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Looks like we'll get our first named CPAC storm of the year...funny how they'll get one before the Atlantic lol
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Quoting jeffs713:

No kidding. Some people might actually be getting some work done. *gasp*


haha!! wouldn't that be something!
It is dead as a nail here at my work and all my assignments are done...whew!
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Quoting btwntx08:
this has to be classified nhc is taking to long maybe they want to wait until an eye comes out lol!


Good Evening all
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TampaSpins Tropical Update
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Quoting SomeRandomTexan:
The blog is DOA this morning!

No kidding. Some people might actually be getting some work done. *gasp*
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5875
I'm guessing that the NHC wants to see visible satellite on 97E... Also, it makes sense to wait until 8AM PDT anyways for an upgrade since we're so close.

Fun finally to have something to watch...

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The blog is DOA this morning!
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592

WHXX01 KMIA 301331

CHGE77

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1331 UTC THU JUL 30 2009



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE SIX (EP062009) 20090730 1200 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

090730 1200 090731 0000 090731 1200 090801 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 11.5N 138.9W 12.2N 141.8W 12.8N 144.7W 13.5N 147.8W

BAMD 11.5N 138.9W 12.0N 142.4W 12.8N 145.6W 13.7N 148.5W

BAMM 11.5N 138.9W 12.0N 141.9W 12.7N 144.9W 13.4N 147.9W

LBAR 11.5N 138.9W 11.9N 142.0W 12.3N 145.3W 12.5N 148.6W

SHIP 30KTS 37KTS 43KTS 46KTS

DSHP 30KTS 37KTS 43KTS 46KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

090801 1200 090802 1200 090803 1200 090804 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 14.1N 150.9W 15.8N 156.8W 17.9N 162.5W 20.2N 167.7W

BAMD 14.7N 151.0W 17.7N 154.3W 20.8N 156.3W 22.7N 157.1W

BAMM 14.3N 150.8W 16.3N 155.2W 18.4N 159.1W 20.4N 162.6W

LBAR 12.4N 151.9W 12.5N 157.3W 13.5N 161.1W .0N .0W

SHIP 46KTS 41KTS 31KTS 21KTS

DSHP 46KTS 41KTS 31KTS 21KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 11.5N LONCUR = 138.9W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 16KT

LATM12 = 11.2N LONM12 = 135.6W DIRM12 = 274DEG SPDM12 = 16KT

LATM24 = 11.0N LONM24 = 132.5W

WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT

CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Precipitable Water Vapor has increased 35W 'ish


And with SAL decreasing, SST will be increasing - does anyone know how fast we can expect the SST's to rise?
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793. jeffs713 2:19 PM GMT on July 30, 2009
Why does everyone try to second-guess the NHC based solely upon satellite presentation? Last time I checked, the NHC has more experience in actual forecasting in their left pinky finger than most of us do in our heads. Leave it to the experts. I seriously doubt there is some kind of government conspiracy to be uber-conservative and intentionally downcast storm formation. (of course, I don't own a tin foil hat, but I digress)


maybe they need to think about it over a BEER..since that's teh Gov't way of fixing things....
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06E/TD/E
MARK
11.9N/138.9W
1008MB
30 KTS
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Why does everyone try to second-guess the NHC based solely upon satellite presentation? Last time I checked, the NHC has more experience in actual forecasting in their left pinky finger than most of us do in our heads. Leave it to the experts. I seriously doubt there is some kind of government conspiracy to be uber-conservative and intentionally downcast storm formation. (of course, I don't own a tin foil hat, but I digress)
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5875
So when do you guys think we will see more development and what does wind shear and steering currents look like for the next two weeks?
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I think they gave it a Medium chance because it is crossing the 140W border, therefore not being their system to track.
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Probably only going to spend 1-2 advisories in the EPAC before moving into the CPAC.
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High pressure has set up right on top of the wave in the CATL. Conditions are as good as they are likely to get out there for a while.

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Quoting btwntx08:

ok yes i saw the link now td it is but still the nhc to a while to classified until now


At least it is not going unnoticed, well anyways I will be off to work now, but will check back in during my lunch break.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Its a tropical depression.


Finally, some tropical development in the world! Took some time off! I guess mother nature get tired too, goodbye everyone!
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Quoting IKE:


Sounds like you're ready for me to leave.....


Nah! Just seems like a perfect time to go somewhere anyways you are always welcome in Orlando! You can get into Disney free on your birthday , the weather has not been too bad here lately :)

I vacation in October/November up North to see the Fall.
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Actually an eye might appear anytime with this kind of rapid development, but wow that shear is rough so it better do it quick!!
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NHC is asleep!!
Quoting extreme236:


Yes it has developed.


Oh wow, satellite presentation looks much better than last night! It's been upped to a depression? It does look like one certainly! Last night, circulation looked pretty oblong, but I only glanced at a still, not loop just now. Alright everyone, be back tonight, off to the job. Have a great day everyone!
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Quoting btwntx08:
this has to be classified nhc is taking to long maybe they want to wait until an eye comes out lol!


Its a tropical depression.
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775. IKE 1:53 PM GMT on July 30, 2009
Quoting MrstormX:


Indeed, you would think that >50% would be more sensible.


I don't remember the NHC being this conservative in years past.

That starts another argument...best to let it go....


the Gov't being conservative?? surly you must be joking....lol
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776. IKE
Quoting extreme236:


invest_RENUMBER_ep972009_ep062009.ren Link


Okay. I thought he was posting it was going into the CPAC.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
775. IKE
Quoting MrstormX:


Indeed, you would think that >50% would be more sensible.


I don't remember the NHC being this conservative in years past.

That starts another argument...best to let it go....
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting IKE:


Is it a TD now?


invest_RENUMBER_ep972009_ep062009.ren Link
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that caribbean mess is sure starting look a little better...any thoughts??
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Quoting IKE:


And only give it a 30-50% chance of developing?


Indeed, you would think that >50% would be more sensible.
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771. IKE
Quoting extreme236:


Yeah that was odd, but at least they classified it now.


Is it a TD now?
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting IKE:


And only give it a 30-50% chance of developing?


Yeah that was odd, but at least they classified it now.
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769. IKE
Quoting MrstormX:
Well maybe I jumped to conclusions on the Hawaii thing but, I don't get how the nhc can just name this an invest, it is pretty darn obvious it is already a tropical system.


And only give it a 30-50% chance of developing?
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
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07/30/2009 01:28PM 1,127 invest_RENUMBER_ep972009_ep062009.ren
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Well maybe I jumped to conclusions on the Hawaii thing but, I don't get how the nhc can just name this an invest, it is pretty darn obvious it is already a tropical system.
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764. IKE
Quoting gulfcoastdweller:


Dang IKE!!!


IKE...

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting kmanislander:
Good morning

Quikscat this morning continues to show an elongated surface low oriented NE to SW with the feature near 11N 35W.

850 mb vorticity is also much improved from yesterday and convection, though relatively weak, has hung on. SAL is presently holding this wave in check but I still think it may a have chance to develop once it nears 50W.

Something to watch for over the next 48 hrs.


Well Put Kman!
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Quoting GatorWX:


Models are completely inconsistent though, and it hasn't developed yet with a large amount of shear (last night when I looked) to its east.


Yes it has developed.
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Quoting MrstormX:
lol, I love how pessimistic the blog is this morning. Seriously guys if your looking for action at the current moment just take a look in the CPAC that thing is heading right towards Hawaii.


The current CPAC High is strong enough to keep the disturbance far south enough to just bring a couple showers and storms to the HI Islands. I'm leaning more towards the southern bias of the early models.
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4934

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.