Late-starting hurricane seasons
Late-starting hurricane seasons--ones where the first named storm of the year doesn't occur until August--have happened in eleven of the fifty years between 1960 - 2009 (a 22% occurrence.) Only two of these eleven seasons ended up with more hurricanes than average (seven or greater). The record for the latest starting hurricane season since 1851 was set in 1914, when the only storm of the season formed on September 15. The year 1941 was also late starting, with the season's first storm arriving on September 11. Of course, we didn't have satellites back then, so it's a good bet there were storms earlier in these seasons that got missed. However, there's a good possibility that 1914 really did have only one storm. A re-analysis of the hurricane activity in the decade 1911-1920 (Landsea et al., 2008) found 1.3 missing tropical cyclones per year, thanks to the inclusion of a new database of ship weather reports called COADS. However, 1914 was not one of those years. Various authors have estimated that we missed an average of between one and three tropical cyclones per year during that time period, so it is quite possible 1914 had only one storm.
Figure 1. The hurricane season of 1914 featured only one tropical storm, and was the latest-starting hurricane season on record (September 15).
The latest dates for the first named storm of the season in the recent past, followed by the number of named storms, hurricanes, and intense hurricanes that year are:
2009 (August 15) 9,3,2
2004 (August 1) 15,9,6
2000 (August 4) 15,8,3
1988 (August 7) 12,6,3
1987 (August 9) 7,3,1
1984 (August 18) 13,5,1
1983 (August 15) 4,2,1
1977 (August 30) 6,5,1
1967 (August 30) 8,6,2
1963 (August 2) 9,6,2
1962 (August 22) 5,3,1
We can also add 1992 to the list if we ignore the unnamed subtropical storm that formed in April of that year. That year had the notorious Hurricane Andrew as its first named storm. Andrew formed on August 17 of that year, and was the only major hurricane in a year that had only seven named storms and four hurricanes. For comparison, an average Atlantic hurricane season has 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. So, it is a good bet that 2009 will be a below-average season.
References
Landsea, C. W. , D. A. Glenn, W. Bredemeyer, M. Chenoweth, R. Ellis J. Gamache, L. Hufstetler, C. Mock, R. Perez, R. Prieto, J. Sanchez-Sesma, D. Thomas, and L. Woolcock, 2008, A Reanalysis of the 1911-20 Atlantic Hurricane Database", Journal of Climate, 21, p.2138-2168.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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AOI
AOI
Pick a Blob... any Blob :)
I Pick......the one on Africa...LOL
Yeah!!!!! Heeeesss Baaaaacckk!!!!
OK, so let me see if I can use monomania in a sentence.
?
?
?
?
Got it!!!!!
CYCLONEBUSTER
Here it is in motion: Link
There was 30-40 knots of shear in the middle of the Caribbean last time I checked (a couple of hours ago). Any other year, people would have been all over it. Not this year. It's not even yellow on the NHC chart.
Hard to believe, huh?!
Not prognosticating, just publishing.
IHNI (I have no idea...)
Ike said if it can stay to the north it may have a chance...Is there enough strength, size and convection there to maybe have an impact?
ShearMap
Mrs. Chicklet...it looks to me like it's moving almost due west.
Can u give me the link to that pic please?
Notice how shear has been decreasing during the last 6 to 9 hours and expect them to hover around 10 to 15kts or so. So does not appear to bad for this TW to develop some... there's some SAL around but not enough to completely kill its current convection. Definitely a rain maker.
Click>>----->>Here
It has satellite images of any part of the world.
It's Ms. We shall see. Everything else entering the Caribbean has dissolved like it's been put into a blender this year.
LOL...okay Ms. Chicklit.
Based upon InfraRed (above) looks to me like it hasn't gotten into the shear yet. Not saying it won't, just looks to be enjoying its environment at present. If you really look, there are two blobs.
looks can be deceiving
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 30 JUL 2009 Time : 180000 UTC
Lat : 12:03:59 N Lon : 140:27:59 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.4 /1005.8mb/ 34.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
2.4 2.8 4.2
Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb
Center Temp : -67.6C Cloud Region Temp : -65.1C
Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION
Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION
Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.2T/hour
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
Thanks "CycloneOZ" I wish I could get some of my dear friends to listen to that advice! and:
Thanks "Patrap". Well stated! and:
No thanks "mikatnite" . You make no sense at all to me. Please stop that nonsense. As the old prune ad used to say "Are 5 enough? Are 6 too many?"
Link
Two blobs. The one in front faces shear and one behind appears to be strengthening here.
No one, as far as I know at this point, is predicting development, by the way.
06E/LANA/30KTS
MARK
11.9N/138.9W
Another quiet weekend. Adrian
Upper-level diffluence.
Sorry Port, but I have no idea what you're refering too.
It hasn't run into the 'wall of shear' yet.
The blog got all out of whack.
You could tell by their posts,
that some (if not most),
were out of their minds smoking crack!
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06E 18:00UTC 30July2009
UW-CIMSS Experimental Vertical Shear and TC Intensity Trend Estimates
Current Conditions (from TPC) :
Latitude : 12:04:42 N
Longitude : 140:28:54 W
Intensity (MSLP) : 1009.0 hPa
Max Pot Int (MPI,from Emanuel) : 939.1 hPa
MPI differential (MSLP-MPI) : 69.9 hPa
CIMSS Vertical Shear Magnitude : 7.0 m/s
Direction : 181.0 deg
Outlook for TC Intensification Based on Current
Env. Shear Values and MPI Differential
Forecast Interval : 6hr 12hr 18hr 24hr
F F F F
Legend : VF-Very Favorable F-Favorable N-Neutral
U-Unfavorable VU-Very Unfavorable
-- Mean Intensity Trend (negative indicates TC deepening) --
6hr 12hr 18hr 24hr
VF <-3.0mb/ 6hr <-6.0mb/12hr <-9.0mb/18hr <-12.0mb/24hr
F -3.0 - -1.0 -6.0 - -2.0 -9.0 - -3.0 -12.0 - -4.0
N -1.0 - +1.0 -2.0 - +2.0 -3.0 - +3.0 -4.0 - +4.0
U +1.0 - +3.0 +2.0 - +6.0 +3.0 - +9.0 +4.0 -+12.0
VU >+3.0 >+6.0 >+9.0 >+12.0
Viewing: 1051 - 1101
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