Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Late-starting hurricane seasons

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:01 PM GMT on July 29, 2009

Late-starting hurricane seasons--ones where the first named storm of the year doesn't occur until August--have happened in eleven of the fifty years between 1960 - 2009 (a 22% occurrence.) Only two of these eleven seasons ended up with more hurricanes than average (seven or greater). The record for the latest starting hurricane season since 1851 was set in 1914, when the only storm of the season formed on September 15. The year 1941 was also late starting, with the season's first storm arriving on September 11. Of course, we didn't have satellites back then, so it's a good bet there were storms earlier in these seasons that got missed. However, there's a good possibility that 1914 really did have only one storm. A re-analysis of the hurricane activity in the decade 1911-1920 (Landsea et al., 2008) found 1.3 missing tropical cyclones per year, thanks to the inclusion of a new database of ship weather reports called COADS. However, 1914 was not one of those years. Various authors have estimated that we missed an average of between one and three tropical cyclones per year during that time period, so it is quite possible 1914 had only one storm.

Figure 1. The hurricane season of 1914 featured only one tropical storm, and was the latest-starting hurricane season on record (September 15).

The latest dates for the first named storm of the season in the recent past, followed by the number of named storms, hurricanes, and intense hurricanes that year are:

2009 (August 15) 9,3,2
2004 (August 1) 15,9,6
2000 (August 4) 15,8,3
1988 (August 7) 12,6,3
1987 (August 9) 7,3,1
1984 (August 18) 13,5,1
1983 (August 15) 4,2,1
1977 (August 30) 6,5,1
1967 (August 30) 8,6,2
1963 (August 2) 9,6,2
1962 (August 22) 5,3,1

We can also add 1992 to the list if we ignore the unnamed subtropical storm that formed in April of that year. That year had the notorious Hurricane Andrew as its first named storm. Andrew formed on August 17 of that year, and was the only major hurricane in a year that had only seven named storms and four hurricanes. For comparison, an average Atlantic hurricane season has 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. So, it is a good bet that 2009 will be a below-average season.

References
Landsea, C. W. , D. A. Glenn, W. Bredemeyer, M. Chenoweth, R. Ellis J. Gamache, L. Hufstetler, C. Mock, R. Perez, R. Prieto, J. Sanchez-Sesma, D. Thomas, and L. Woolcock, 2008, A Reanalysis of the 1911-20 Atlantic Hurricane Database", Journal of Climate, 21, p.2138-2168.

Jeff Masters

Categories: Hurricane

Permalink | A A A

Top of Page

Reader Comments

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200

Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1251 - 1301

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 — Blog Index

1251. BurnedAfterPosting 9:43 PM GMT on July 30, 2009
Quoting futuremet: 12z CMC shows one of the waves emerging off the Cuban coast, and then strengthens. 00Z CMC attempted to develop it. High resolution 850mb vorticity I dont see anything on the 12Z CMC

1252. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 9:45 PM GMT on July 30, 2009
200 WHXX01 KMIA 301845 CHGE77 TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 1845 UTC THU JUL 30 2009 DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS. PLEASE REFER TO CPHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION. CENTRAL PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR DISTURBANCE LANA (EP062009) 20090730 1800 UTC ...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS... 090730 1800 090731 0600 090731 1800 090801 0600 LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON BAMS 12.1N 140.6W 12.9N 143.6W 13.6N 146.5W 14.3N 149.7W BAMD 12.1N 140.6W 12.8N 144.0W 13.7N 147.2W 14.9N 149.7W BAMM 12.1N 140.6W 12.8N 143.6W 13.6N 146.4W 14.4N 149.1W LBAR 12.1N 140.6W 12.8N 143.8W 13.2N 146.9W 13.6N 150.3W SHIP 35KTS 45KTS 55KTS 58KTS DSHP 35KTS 45KTS 55KTS 58KTS ...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS... 090801 1800 090802 1800 090803 1800 090804 1800 LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON BAMS 14.8N 153.0W 15.9N 159.4W 17.1N 165.5W 18.0N 171.0W BAMD 16.0N 151.7W 18.8N 154.8W 21.3N 157.2W 22.9N 158.5W BAMM 15.2N 151.7W 16.9N 156.2W 18.6N 160.6W 20.3N 164.6W LBAR 13.5N 153.5W 13.9N 158.5W 15.1N 162.4W .0N .0W SHIP 59KTS 51KTS 36KTS 26KTS DSHP 59KTS 51KTS 36KTS 26KTS ...INITIAL CONDITIONS... LATCUR = 12.1N LONCUR = 140.6W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 16KT LATM12 = 11.6N LONM12 = 137.3W DIRM12 = 281DEG SPDM12 = 16KT LATM24 = 11.1N LONM24 = 134.0W WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D RD34NE = 60NM RD34SE = 30NM RD34SW = 30NM RD34NW = 45NM $$ NNNN Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 144 Comments: 40670

1253. stormsurge39 9:46 PM GMT on July 30, 2009
Is there any sign of anything with that blot of convection at 25w?

1254. Chicklit 9:48 PM GMT on July 30, 2009
ZCZC HFOTCDCP1 ALL TTAA00 PHFO DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM LANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP062009 ISSUED BY NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1100 AM HST THU JUL 30 2009 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE IN ORGANIZATION WITH A PROMINENT CONVECTIVE BAND COILING AROUND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND AB...AS WELL AS THE ADT FROM UW-CIMSS...HAVE ALL INCREASED TO 2.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. THE SYSTEM IS THEREFORE BEING UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM LANA. FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED DUE TO WARM OCEAN WATERS AND LOW SHEAR. IN FACT...THE SHIPS RI INDEX IS INDICATING A 50% CHANCE OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. Thanks, Guys. Link Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 10255

1255. Chicklit 9:50 PM GMT on July 30, 2009
Whoo hoo. Glad Trinidad, the Windwards are getting rain! Link Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 10255

1256. futuremet 9:50 PM GMT on July 30, 2009
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting: I dont see anything on the 12Z CMC LOL I don't blame you, it is insignificant. Look closely at western Cuba toward the end of the run. Member Since: July 19, 2008 Posts: 43 Comments: 4049

1257. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 9:50 PM GMT on July 30, 2009
lana now on the dmin downward turn Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 144 Comments: 40670

1258. HadesGodWyvern 9:51 PM GMT on July 30, 2009
Chicklit: NHC don't have responsibility for EP062009 anymore. =) Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 43 Comments: 36691

1259. jeffs713 9:52 PM GMT on July 30, 2009
Quoting iluvjess: 40-4 Hurricane Checklist: 1. 40 Galons Gas 2. 4 Propane Tanks 3. 40 lbs Charcoal 4. 4 Cases Budweiser 5. 40 Rolls of Toilet Paper 6. 4 Cases Shotgun Shells 7. 40 Ft Extension Chord 8. 4 Flares 9. 40 Galons of Water 10 4 Packages of D Batteries All systems go... I'm ready. Lets see... 1. VERY good suggestion 2. Good suggestion, especially if you have a propane generator 3. Everything can be cooked on a grill 4. Incredibly important there. ;) 5. Might want to add "Immodium A-D" to that list. 6. Its a hurricane. Not World War 3. 7. Good idea. 8. Might want to bump that up, just in case. 9. General suggestion is 1 gallon per person, per day. I stretch mine to 2 gallons per person, per day (to account for my 2 cats, and helping cleanup outside). 10. You can never have too many batteries. Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 15 Comments: 5722

1260. Chicklit 9:52 PM GMT on July 30, 2009
The Rain Chain Link Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 10255

1261. Drakoen 9:52 PM GMT on July 30, 2009
Convective feedback much lol: Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010

1262. Chicklit 9:53 PM GMT on July 30, 2009
Quoting HadesGodWyvern: Chicklit: NHC don't have responsibility for EP062009 anymore. =) huh? Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 10255

1263. sarasotaman 9:54 PM GMT on July 30, 2009
I was wrong The Doc did talk about 1992. my computer seems to have a load problem

1264. Patrap 9:54 PM GMT on July 30, 2009
EP062009 - Tropical Storm LANA RAAMB page EP062009 - Tropical Storm LANA Multiplatform Satellite Surface Wind Analysis 1800 UTC Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery 2km Storm Relative IR Imagery with BD Enhancement Curve Enhanced Infrared (IR) Imagery (1 km Mercator, MODIS/AVHRR Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111641

1266. Chicklit 9:55 PM GMT on July 30, 2009
Patrap, looks like Lana's undergoing mitosis. 50% chance of rapid intensification in the next 24 hours. Glad it's going south of Hawaii at present~! Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 10255

1267. BurnedAfterPosting 9:57 PM GMT on July 30, 2009
Quoting futuremet: LOL I don't blame you, it is insignificant. Look closely at western Cuba toward the end of the run. Ok let me get my binoculars

1268. HadesGodWyvern 9:57 PM GMT on July 30, 2009
you have to post data from the Central Pacific Hurricane Center website now instead, Chicklit Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 43 Comments: 36691

1269. Chicklit 9:57 PM GMT on July 30, 2009
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting: Ok let me get my binoculars you mean 'magnifying glass.' btw, strong line of showers coming across Central Fla. again tonight. Last night was like the 4th of july redux. MelbourneRadar Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 10255

1270. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 9:58 PM GMT on July 30, 2009
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 144 Comments: 40670

1271. Patrap 9:59 PM GMT on July 30, 2009
Enhanced Infrared (IR) Imagery (4 km Mercator img Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111641

1272. weathermanwannabe 10:01 PM GMT on July 30, 2009
Goin Home.....Good thing about the current large scale synoptic pattern is that the SE Conus has been getting lots of rain lately so nobody is "starving" for a tropical storm, as has been usual in past years at this time, to help relieve a "major" drought issue in Georgia, Alabama or Florida. See everyone tommorow..........WW Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 6703

1273. VAbeachhurricanes 10:05 PM GMT on July 30, 2009
yellow circle at 8pm? or no? Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4803

1275. BurnedAfterPosting 10:06 PM GMT on July 30, 2009
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes: yellow circle at 8pm? or no? for what?

1276. Patrap 10:06 PM GMT on July 30, 2009
Gulf and Tropics (Updated every ~1/2 hour) Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111641

1277. IKE 10:06 PM GMT on July 30, 2009
All that looks like on that CMC is a tropical wave. Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37047

1278. IKE 10:06 PM GMT on July 30, 2009
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes: yellow circle at 8pm? or no? ???? Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37047

1279. cyclonekid 10:07 PM GMT on July 30, 2009
Quoting Chicklit: Patrap, looks like Lana's undergoing mitosis. Question What is mitosis? Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 51 Comments: 1629

1280. alcomat 10:07 PM GMT on July 30, 2009
I am finally back on this site,10 months after Ike gave my county a direct hit.that was pure hell,without power for a month.what was weird is we were on the left side of the eyewall,and in this storm it was worse than the right side!all red on the left and green and yellow on the right.this is gonna be a weird season,I predict 3 storms in august,and 4 storms in september.I dont know how many will be hurricanes[4??]just my prediction.hope everyone stays safe this season,and god be with the ones who get hit,cause I have a feeling they will be very strong...... Member Since: August 8, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 95

1281. VAbeachhurricanes 10:07 PM GMT on July 30, 2009
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting: for what? caribbean wave? or is that just thunderstorms? Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4803

1282. Chicklit 10:08 PM GMT on July 30, 2009
The Caribbean Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 10255

1283. BenBIogger 10:09 PM GMT on July 30, 2009
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes: caribbean wave? or is that just thunderstorms? Wave Member Since: March 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1419

1284. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 10:09 PM GMT on July 30, 2009
weakening flag on Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 144 Comments: 40670

1285. Chicklit 10:10 PM GMT on July 30, 2009
Quoting cyclonekid: Question What is mitosis? Cell division. Storms sometimes split and reform center just before strengthening. Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 10255

1286. cyclonekid 10:12 PM GMT on July 30, 2009
OOOOOOOOOOHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!! OK!! I get it now!! :D Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 51 Comments: 1629

1288. Cavin Rawlins 10:14 PM GMT on July 30, 2009
Quoting WeatherStudent: good evening, 456! how are ya? hey 456, how much longer before you know what my friend??? :( this season has been surreal thus far. Sometime, in the next 2 weeks we should get something to track. I'm just patiently waiting since I know we have August and September still to go.. Also my good friend, all is not lost, you and I are young and there will be many hurricane seasons in the future. 2009 is just one year, just like 2005 was only 1 year. Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076

1289. druseljic 10:15 PM GMT on July 30, 2009
The gulf is so eerily quiet for this time of year...hope its not the quiet before the (well you know)... Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 649

1290. Drakoen 10:16 PM GMT on July 30, 2009
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes: yellow circle at 8pm? or no? RED!?!?!? Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010

1291. wunderkidcayman 10:16 PM GMT on July 30, 2009
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes: yellow circle at 8pm? or no? for what? Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 5517

1292. IKE 10:16 PM GMT on July 30, 2009
Quoting Drakoen: Convective feedback much lol: Don't see much in the EATL on this run, so far. Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37047

1293. alcomat 10:16 PM GMT on July 30, 2009
possibly,but alot of dry air ahead of it Member Since: August 8, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 95

1294. IKE 10:16 PM GMT on July 30, 2009
Quoting Drakoen: RED!?!?!? LOL! Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37047

1295. VAbeachhurricanes 10:18 PM GMT on July 30, 2009
The wave in the caribbean... jeez guess not havent been on in a while guess its not gonna last. Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4803

1296. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 10:19 PM GMT on July 30, 2009
maybe purple or blue Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 144 Comments: 40670

1297. Drakoen 10:20 PM GMT on July 30, 2009
Quoting IKE: LOL! WHO VOTES FOR RED????? ANY TAKERS? Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010

1298. wunderkidcayman 10:20 PM GMT on July 30, 2009
ok the carib wave well maybe let's just what and see Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 5517

1299. BurnedAfterPosting 10:20 PM GMT on July 30, 2009
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE: maybe purple or blue yea blue as in the color of the ocean on the NHC map AKA Nuttin lol

1300. IKE 10:20 PM GMT on July 30, 2009
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes: The wave in the caribbean... jeez guess not havent been on in a while guess its not gonna last. Look what it's heading for..... Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37047

1301. BurnedAfterPosting 10:21 PM GMT on July 30, 2009
Quoting wunderkidcayman: FOR WHAT SOME PLEASE TELL ME WHY VAbeachhurricanes IS TALKING ABOUT A YELLOW CIRCLE AT 8PM geez calm down, he hasnt been on all day, there is nothing there read back a few pages, StormW explains nicely what the situation is.

Viewing: 1251 - 1301

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 — Blog Index

Top of Page

New Comment

Community Standards Policy Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

About JeffMasters