Late-starting hurricane seasons

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:01 PM GMT on July 29, 2009

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Late-starting hurricane seasons--ones where the first named storm of the year doesn't occur until August--have happened in eleven of the fifty years between 1960 - 2009 (a 22% occurrence.) Only two of these eleven seasons ended up with more hurricanes than average (seven or greater). The record for the latest starting hurricane season since 1851 was set in 1914, when the only storm of the season formed on September 15. The year 1941 was also late starting, with the season's first storm arriving on September 11. Of course, we didn't have satellites back then, so it's a good bet there were storms earlier in these seasons that got missed. However, there's a good possibility that 1914 really did have only one storm. A re-analysis of the hurricane activity in the decade 1911-1920 (Landsea et al., 2008) found 1.3 missing tropical cyclones per year, thanks to the inclusion of a new database of ship weather reports called COADS. However, 1914 was not one of those years. Various authors have estimated that we missed an average of between one and three tropical cyclones per year during that time period, so it is quite possible 1914 had only one storm.


Figure 1. The hurricane season of 1914 featured only one tropical storm, and was the latest-starting hurricane season on record (September 15).

The latest dates for the first named storm of the season in the recent past, followed by the number of named storms, hurricanes, and intense hurricanes that year are:

2009 (August 15) 9,3,2
2004 (August 1) 15,9,6
2000 (August 4) 15,8,3
1988 (August 7) 12,6,3
1987 (August 9) 7,3,1
1984 (August 18) 13,5,1
1983 (August 15) 4,2,1
1977 (August 30) 6,5,1
1967 (August 30) 8,6,2
1963 (August 2) 9,6,2
1962 (August 22) 5,3,1

We can also add 1992 to the list if we ignore the unnamed subtropical storm that formed in April of that year. That year had the notorious Hurricane Andrew as its first named storm. Andrew formed on August 17 of that year, and was the only major hurricane in a year that had only seven named storms and four hurricanes. For comparison, an average Atlantic hurricane season has 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. So, it is a good bet that 2009 will be a below-average season.

References
Landsea, C. W. , D. A. Glenn, W. Bredemeyer, M. Chenoweth, R. Ellis J. Gamache, L. Hufstetler, C. Mock, R. Perez, R. Prieto, J. Sanchez-Sesma, D. Thomas, and L. Woolcock, 2008, A Reanalysis of the 1911-20 Atlantic Hurricane Database", Journal of Climate, 21, p.2138-2168.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting clwstmchasr:
like to Congrat 456 for being a Featur bloger

Agreed. What I like about 456 is that he knows his stuff but doesn't try to impress us with his knowledge. He keeps it real. Much like StormW.


Totally agree!
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Hey StormW...
Congrats 456...
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Evening everyone! Just had some strong cells come through here...whew!....
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East Pacific Invest

EP 97 2009073000 BEST 0 120N 1350W 25 0 DB
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602. IKE
I can't wait to hear your voice.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
............


That takes care of the last 2 days of July....

2 months down
4 to go......
Coming up on day 60 of the season......
123 days left.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
did anyone see this amazing amount of rain in six hours in dhaka Bangladesh
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20090728/wl_sthasia_afp/bangladeshweather
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I guess 456 will be pressed into more action on the main blog from time to time as a guest blogger on the main when the Doc takes time off.

I'm thinking that would be a most welcome event for most of us in here.
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Thanks Pat.
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Looks like possible 'LANA' in central pacific with the area currently in the eastern pacific. Although the NHC is only issuing a yellow circle, I think the CPHC will issue a orange or maybe red circle when it crosses 140 degrees West.

Just my opinion. :)
Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 51 Comments: 1731
Quoting Tazmanian:
i like to Congrat 456 for being a Featur bloger
And on being very informative and knowlegable especially for one so young.
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Quoting Tazmanian:
i like to Congrat 456 for being a Featur bloger


Yep...that's a pretty significant honor for a main blog blogger.

You're in the big leagues now, 456! :)

Congrats! You've earned it with hard work and extremely nice analysis.
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Quoting PensacolaNative:
Patrap- Interesting info on hot towers... What is the potential for a tornado to form from them?


Hard to say as tornadoes are a interaction between land friction and other forces during a Landfalling Hurricane,..interesting question for sure.

Maybe Dr. Masters will read your question and post us a response here.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129439
ditto Taz...Congrats 456...
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i like to Congrat 456 for being a Featur bloger
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Quoting amd:
i have read a couple of posts in the last couple of days about possible upwelling of cooler waters near the equator in the atlantic, and the possible effect on storm formation.

So, I checked a buoy near the equator at 4 degrees north and 23 degress west, and noticed that the water temperature at the buoy has dropped 2 degrees celsius in the past month (or 3.6 degrees farenheight).

Link

I'm wondering if this drop in water temperature near the equator is due to a stronger than currently measured el nino? In 2006, there was no such upwelling of atlantic waters at the equator.
I mentioned the Canary Current last night and basically got laughed at. To ME, it appears as this current, which can be a source of upwelling may be causing cooler than normal SSTs which may be a hampering factor in the potential development of these waves.
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Oz...and everyone else:

Ditto what my mon Pat said...y'all are the best
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Patrap- Interesting info on hot towers... What is the potential for a tornado to form from them?
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Dr Masters. Just to let you know, you've made a slight typo in your blog.

The latest dates for the first named storm of the season in the recent past, followed by the number of named storms, hurricanes, and intense hurricanes that year are:

2004 (August 1) 15,9,6
2000 (August 4) 15,8,3
1988 (August 7) 12,6,3
1987 (August 9) 7,3,1
1984 (August 18) 13,5,1
1983 (August 15) 4,2,11
1977 (August 30) 6,5,1
1967 (August 30) 8,6,2
1963 (August 2) 9,6,2
1962 (August 22) 5,3,1



Cheers AussieStorm
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yeah but the dewpoint is only 50. If there's no wind I'd be a little worried. But thank goodness the dewpoints no 70 or higher.
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Orca - You're on an Island in the Ocean and you are that hot, that far North?

I am assuming this is not a normal heat wave/summer for you?
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Orca. Sounds like you need to come to the tropics, to cool down, man.
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I'm going to need to import some new frogs. All of our current ones are being strangled...
Volusia Severe Tstrm

CIMSS Wavetrak Loop Atl (4.5Mb)
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Hello.
"It's a rainy night in Georgia".
Except this is not Georgia. But I dont know a song that says "it's a rainy night in Tobago".
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is it a 106 yet orca
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55665
Quoting Dakster:
Orca - Your gov't should open up shelters for the heat...

If only 3% of the people have A/C's...
our goverment does in toronto we have up 16 cooling centres open 24 hrs a day city pools operate till midnight once a heat alert has been issued in a normal summer we could get 16 to 20 heat alerts in the summer this year i believe there has been 1 for three days but this year we got no heat bc has been hogging it all not that i mine
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55665
Quoting Dakster:
Orca - Your gov't should open up shelters for the heat...

If only 3% of the people have A/C's...


Good use for the skating rinks.. if they hadn't taken out the ice for Lacrosse. I know VIHA (Vancouver Island Health Authority) is taking measures to ensure the elderly are taken care of (Thats who SWMBO works for). Lots of information on TV/Radio about Heat stroke and exhaustion.. this is something totally new for us.

Typical Canadians here... bottled water sales up.. Beer sales.. phenomenal. Save a Canuck.. send beer.



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579. amd
i have read a couple of posts in the last couple of days about possible upwelling of cooler waters near the equator in the atlantic, and the possible effect on storm formation.

So, I checked a buoy near the equator at 4 degrees north and 23 degress west, and noticed that the water temperature at the buoy has dropped 2 degrees celsius in the past month (or 3.6 degrees farenheight).

Link

I'm wondering if this drop in water temperature near the equator is due to a stronger than currently measured el nino? In 2006, there was no such upwelling of atlantic waters at the equator.
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Orca - Your gov't should open up shelters for the heat...

If only 3% of the people have A/C's...
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And if you are looking at the ITCZ, it won't be forming there. Anything that MIGHT have any potential would have to lift out. Again, that is if there WAS/IS anything.
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Computer geberated models and graphics are great tools, but sometimes you have to be rea;istic and look at whats out there. I don't need a grahic saying there is a X% probability of formation in an area when there is truly nothing in that area that stands a chance of forming.
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Quoting btwntx08:
ok 18z tc probability stills says poss. development with this


Wow...colors in the ITCZ are starting to stretch out some.

It's still 0,0,0...but changes 'dey may be a'comin' on!
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Thanx for the support Oz..much apprectiated my man.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129439
558. Drakoen

LOL!
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Then again, it was the 70's that canes were ''allegedly'' being seeded,if so, that might skew results.
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Quoting sebastianflorida:
550 posts about nothing!
what do you expect, there is nothing to post about, tropically speaking.
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Hey Pat, John and the other Portlighters! :)

I've just made a donation to Portlight.org to support the new mobile kitchen you folks want to provide to those in need after a disaster.

I'm sorry it cannot be more, but it still is a good enough sum where some good can come from it.

I know you and your volunteers take our donations and really use them for the work you do where real "rubber-meets-the-road" value is achieved. That's why my money has gone to you and not the others orgs, who seem to cut and run as soon as they can from a disaster area.

You guys tough it out, and that's the kind of organization I want to support.

I hope to continue my support as the season progresses...and I wish you well in this worthwhile endeavor to aid those whose lives suddenly turn to chaos and turmoil.

Your work is so important, and I'm thankful I can help in the ways I can right now.

"Press" onward! :)
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12/59
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When one thinks about it, there have been some heavy rollers in the last fifteen / twenty years.

Before that I only remember David, Allen being especially of mark in the 70's / early 80's ......but then that is only memory....
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Thanks Patrap, Andrew went above the Leewards and Windwards as per your map, so it was Gilbert that hammered Jamaica, that I was thinking of....
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.

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Just Shoot me :(




I would surprised if 2-3% of the houses here have AC Units
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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