Felicia not weakening; new African wave may develop
Hurricane Felicia has not weakened today, and continues to hold its own in spite of cool sea surface temperatures beneath it. Recent satellite imagery shows that the tops of thunderstorms surrounding the eye have cooled slightly, indicating that the updrafts sustaining the eyewall are maintaining their strength. The appearance of the hurricane has improved some today, with the storm assuming a more symmetric appearance.
Figure 1. Current satellite image of Hurricane Felicia.
Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) under Felicia have now fallen to 24.7°C, well below the 26°C threshold typically needed to sustain a hurricane. SSTs will slowly increase to 26°C by the time the storm reaches Hawaii, though. Wind shear is expected to remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, through Monday morning. By Monday night, shear will rise to 20 knots, and remain above 20 knots thereafter. The higher shear combined with the relatively cool SSTs should mean that Felicia will be rapidly weakening in its final 24 hours before reaching Hawaii. Several of the computer models continue to show that this shear will be high enough to tear Felicia apart before it reaches Hawaii, though it appears to me that Felicia's current strength and annular structure will help it resist the shear enough to allow the storm to hit Hawaii as a tropical depression with 35 mph winds. Regardless, Felicia will bring heavy rain Hawaii beginning on Monday morning, and these rains will have the capability of causing flash floods and mudslides. The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to make their first low-level investigation of Felicia this afternoon (around 10 am Hawaiian time). The NOAA jet also flies into Felicia today, and will drop a series of dropsondes that will be used to gather data that will be fed into today's 12Z and 00Z computer model runs.
Typhoon Morakot hits Taiwan
Typhoon Morakot hit Taiwan yesterday, battering the island with Category 1 winds and heavy rain. The Taipei airport recorded sustained winds of 56 mph, gusting to 76 mph, at the peak of the storm. Morakot killed 6 on Taiwan and 10 in the Philippines, and is headed towards a final landfall on mainland China as a tropical storm later today. Storm chaser James Reynolds intercepted the storm and posted videos on typhoonfury.com and Youtube. Morakot is still visible today on Taiwan radar.
Figure 2. Visible satellite image of a spinning tropical wave leaving the coast of Africa. The image was taken at 8am EDT 8/8/09.
African tropical wave may develop
A strong tropical wave with a moderate amount of spin is moving off the coast of Africa this morning. The wave is under about 10 - 20 knots of wind shear and has sea surface temperatures beneath it of 27°C. These conditions are probably too marginal to allow development over the next two days. As the wave moves westward away from Africa over the next few days, wind shear should slowly decrease and the SSTs will warm, potentially allowing for some slow development. The UKMET, GFS, and NOGAPS models all indicate the possibility that this will become a tropical depression 3 - 5 days from now. The ECMWF model forecasts that strong easterly winds over the wave will create too much shear to allow development. The wave is well south of the Saharan Air Layer, so dry air and African dust should not interfere over the next 3 - 5 days. I give the wave a medium (30 - 50% chance) of developing into a tropical depression in the next seven days.
I'll have an update on Sunday.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Id be happy to share some of them with you. As much as I love watching the daily TStorms, man I can not get anything dry haha. We had one heck of a downpour today. One day during the week we had a downpour that lasted only 15 minutes and water levels from flash flooding got to the doors of peoples cars. I need to go back and look up how much rain was actually recorded in that short storm because it was very impressive.
ROFL STORM!
Yes, it should track gradually toward WNW and slightly more NW as it nears the western axis of the ridge. The other waves should follow a smilar track; that is too early to tell, however.
For those who dont know, that picture is of StormW and Max Mayfield hanging out partying
Now to shock the bloggers here. I know I have been a downcaster so far this year with good reason. This wave coming off of Africa is the first to really peak my interest. Hmmm I may jump on board and start to give this one a chance. need to look at more stuff first though.
Yes i know, we have had very gusty winds with the thunderstorms lately
Seems we've reached a Threshold in the GOM,Atlantic Basin.
I think there will be plenty of action to come in the next few weeks.
As to the GOM proper,I'd refer to StormW or one of the analytical bloggers as to whats happening out in the Southern GOM.
All the inhibiting basin problems as to development seems to be giving way to climatology and,well Mid-August to come.
And that alway brings the frays.
Small and well,Large.
The local wu-radar totals are real close to the observed ones here.
Not saying if you are under 21 you should drink but once you hit 21 it should be required haha j/k of course. To each his or her own but after a long week it is very nice to kick back and have a few. So refreshing when it hits your lips.
I think the gfs is high lol.
Dan? did you mean Dean?
Hey 456, you all might be able to stop ganging up on me because this one looks pretty good at this point. I see a small shift in the pattern which may help this one out. See I dont say all of them wont form up.
Just a heads up as I once did the same and got sent to the corner for 48.
But it sure was funny @ da time.
OK, I am going to be honest with you, the steering pattern looks favorable for a south Florida landfall. This system will likely be weak, and should follow the low level steering patterns.
Forecast accuracy: <1% so don't get excited
Something has not even developed yet, and steering currents tend to alter substantially beyond 84hrs
Link
Good rule to have...time for me to end that series of comments.
Why you say that. I never ganged on you.
Well it wouldn't be the first time we've seen a parade of storms! While that might not be so likely...it does indicate that conditions are ripening for development I assume
Have a plan,review your plan.
Know your evac zone and Contra-flow routes as time is becoming short as to threats.
Have your prescription Meds on hand,..and take time to make a list of things one may need still.
True True, should have worded it different. Many have for me usually saying the last 5 or 6 waves had no shot to form. You and I have had good conversation about them. The shape of this wave looks really good and setup early so I think it has a better shot than any of the others to survive. Plus as the good Dr said, it is south of the dust and dry air which most of the others werent.
Oh, no not Gilbert again. Lol
That would be pretty amusing if it came true.
I don't like damage or destruction so a cat 2 or higher I don't welcome.
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