Felicia not weakening; new African wave may develop
Hurricane Felicia has not weakened today, and continues to hold its own in spite of cool sea surface temperatures beneath it. Recent satellite imagery shows that the tops of thunderstorms surrounding the eye have cooled slightly, indicating that the updrafts sustaining the eyewall are maintaining their strength. The appearance of the hurricane has improved some today, with the storm assuming a more symmetric appearance.
Figure 1. Current satellite image of Hurricane Felicia.
Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) under Felicia have now fallen to 24.7°C, well below the 26°C threshold typically needed to sustain a hurricane. SSTs will slowly increase to 26°C by the time the storm reaches Hawaii, though. Wind shear is expected to remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, through Monday morning. By Monday night, shear will rise to 20 knots, and remain above 20 knots thereafter. The higher shear combined with the relatively cool SSTs should mean that Felicia will be rapidly weakening in its final 24 hours before reaching Hawaii. Several of the computer models continue to show that this shear will be high enough to tear Felicia apart before it reaches Hawaii, though it appears to me that Felicia's current strength and annular structure will help it resist the shear enough to allow the storm to hit Hawaii as a tropical depression with 35 mph winds. Regardless, Felicia will bring heavy rain Hawaii beginning on Monday morning, and these rains will have the capability of causing flash floods and mudslides. The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to make their first low-level investigation of Felicia this afternoon (around 10 am Hawaiian time). The NOAA jet also flies into Felicia today, and will drop a series of dropsondes that will be used to gather data that will be fed into today's 12Z and 00Z computer model runs.
Typhoon Morakot hits Taiwan
Typhoon Morakot hit Taiwan yesterday, battering the island with Category 1 winds and heavy rain. The Taipei airport recorded sustained winds of 56 mph, gusting to 76 mph, at the peak of the storm. Morakot killed 6 on Taiwan and 10 in the Philippines, and is headed towards a final landfall on mainland China as a tropical storm later today. Storm chaser James Reynolds intercepted the storm and posted videos on typhoonfury.com and Youtube. Morakot is still visible today on Taiwan radar.
Figure 2. Visible satellite image of a spinning tropical wave leaving the coast of Africa. The image was taken at 8am EDT 8/8/09.
African tropical wave may develop
A strong tropical wave with a moderate amount of spin is moving off the coast of Africa this morning. The wave is under about 10 - 20 knots of wind shear and has sea surface temperatures beneath it of 27°C. These conditions are probably too marginal to allow development over the next two days. As the wave moves westward away from Africa over the next few days, wind shear should slowly decrease and the SSTs will warm, potentially allowing for some slow development. The UKMET, GFS, and NOGAPS models all indicate the possibility that this will become a tropical depression 3 - 5 days from now. The ECMWF model forecasts that strong easterly winds over the wave will create too much shear to allow development. The wave is well south of the Saharan Air Layer, so dry air and African dust should not interfere over the next 3 - 5 days. I give the wave a medium (30 - 50% chance) of developing into a tropical depression in the next seven days.
I'll have an update on Sunday.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 — Blog Index
At 12z it was initialized at 12.5N
Hopefully this system wont leave a weakness were the next wave might try to move into.
It usually comes through NOAAPort, a server setup that gets NOAA-wide data in one place (costs ~$30k).
Some data coming through NOAAPort appears to get a bit less QC than going to the provider directly for data. NDBC buoy data falls under this.
SST's below the 26°C threshold typically needed to sustain a hurricane
AOI
AOI
Also, wave in front of Windwards looks nice.
81ºF/27ºC
wind W 2mph
Preassure 21.91 in.
DP 77ºF/25ºC
(Orca, the buoy and ship data is pretty kool.)
Yes iam saying this storm will eventually feel the tug of mid latitude trough forecast to come down during the next few days.The lower pressure area i see is nearly around 14.2 or something like that.Per this QUIKSCAT i think its safe bet it has a closed llc.
0 to 1 C above someone's definition of "normal". Sure, it is warm, but not 4 C warm.
To whatever extent I've learned anything here over the last four years, it's come from reading others and thinking about what they say...not arguing...never learned a damned thing when I was running my mouth...
The link you gave is just a small sample of all of the different .kml files that are available for GE. I must have 50 or more different ones.. including almost every different weather one you can find.
They also have a really good one on the Rigs in the gulf..and their weather station data.
09/1330 UTC 14.2N 21.8W T1.5/1.5 99L -- Atlantic
That is close...
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/northatlantic/track_early1.png
They're much above normal. Some of the hottest SST's on Earth are in the GOMEX. They're hotter than in 2005.
That's not possible. It is not 99L
No, it is not, it is one the waves between 55-40W
Also notice how the TPC is forecasting the high off the US East Coast to build into the Western Atlantic replacing the troughing occurring due to the passing cold front in the North-Central Atlantic.
I might actually agree with this. I do believe red at 2pm and a TD today is a good possibility.
Dean, Ike. Bertha was suppose to recurve out to sea before even getting to 40W. It is simply too early to make that assumption.
Viewing: 2451 - 2501
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 — Blog Index