Hawaii braces for Felicia; 99L near the Cape Verdes Islands may develop
A strong tropical wave (99L) is just south of the Cape Verdes Islands, 800 miles off the coast of Africa. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed a nearly closed surface circulation, stretched out along one axis. The satellite saw winds of up to 45 mph in a band of heavy thunderstorms well south of the Cape Verdes Islands. The islands have seen winds of only 10 - 15 mph and some occasional rain showers thus far from the disturbance. Heavy thunderstorm activity associated with 99L died down this morning, but appears to be making a comeback late this morning. Wind shear is moderate, about 10 knots, and sea surface temperatures are moderately warm, about 27 - 28°C. There is a large area of dry air to 99L's north that is interfering with the storm's organization, though.
Figure 1. Current satellite image of disturbance 99L.
Wind shear is expected to be moderate, 5 - 15 knots, through Wednesday. SSTs will remain relatively constant at 27°C, but the dry, stable air of the Saharan AIr Layer (SAL) to 99L's north will be problem for it. NHC has given 99L a moderate (30 - 50% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. Most of the models show some weak development, but none of them predict 99L will become a hurricane. It is too early to say if 99L will recurve north of the Lesser Antilles Islands or not, since it will be at least 5 days before the storm makes it that far. It is unusual, though, for storms forming this far north to make it all the way across the Atlantic to hit the Lesser Antilles Islands.
The GFS and ECMWF models are predicting the possible development of a new tropical wave coming off the coast of Africa late this week.
Felicia continues to weaken, but is a flash flooding threat to Hawaii
Tropical Storm Felicia has weakened steadily over the past 24 hours, thanks to cool sea surface temperatures and increasing shear. Recent satellite loops show that strong upper-level winds from the west have pushed the storm's heavy thunderstorm activity to the northeast side of the center, exposing the surface center as a swirl of low clouds. Felicia's relatively meager heavy thunderstorm activity is steadily moving away from the center of the storm.
Figure 2. History of hurricane activity over Hawaii since 1950. Hawaii islands have been hit by only 9 tropical cyclones of tropical depression or greater strength, with 4 others passing withing 75 miles of an island. Image credit: NOAA Coastal Services Center.
Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) under Felicia are 25°C, well below the 26°C threshold typically needed to sustain a hurricane. SSTs will slowly increase to 26°C by Tuesday. Wind shear has increased to a high 30 knots, and is expected to increase further to 40 knots by Tuesday. The high shear combined with the cool SSTs should continue to weaken Felicia today. I give a 30% chance that the shear will completely rip away Felicia's heavy thunderstorm activity by the time the storm reaches Hawaii, leaving only a swirl of low-level clouds that will not cause significant flooding problems. The wind speed probabilities forecast shows about a 25% chance Felicia will still be a weak tropical storm at 3 am Hawaiian time Tuesday morning, and a 15% chance the storm will have dissipated. If Felicia does hold together that long, it would be only the tenth tropical cyclone of tropical depression or higher strength to affect the islands since 1950 (Figure 2). Large swells from Felicia are already affecting the Big Island, and a high surf warning has been posted for east-facing shores of the Big Island and other Hawaiian islands. Felicia or its remnants may bring heavy rain, flash flooding, and mud slides to the islands beginning this afternoon, and a Flash Flood Watch has been posted for most of the islands.
Links to follow:
Long range radar from the Big Island
Wundermap for Hawaii
I'll have an update Tuesday morning.
Reader Comments
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Well yeah but at least its starting to fire off some convection.
Yes, it is. DMAX tonight may help it a bit.
http://download.cnet.com/Malwarebytes-Anti-Malware/3000-8022_4-10804572.html
You are so likely to be banned for that
lmao
Yup. Next wave looks impressive though.
I modified it....
Eeryone was a little too serious so I wanted to lighten the mood a little.
At least I didn't post a pic of one in use!
Ah, I see. Your actually saying to place the link in without actually linking it. That could work.
Fourth, what was on page 15 ??
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2009081018&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation
That is how we should share webpages on the blog while there is a virus threat.
Everything isn't okay on 99L.....
just go down the blog and watch the previous comments!!!!!!!!
LMAO
you are welcome.....
trust me, that Malwarebytes-Anti-Malware works really well to remove the virus going around in this blog.....
once again.....
http://download.cnet.com/Malwarebytes-Anti-Malware/3000-8022_4-10804572.html
i just went back to page 15 and everything is fine
thank you for your answers...
My sides are hurting LOL
Same here.
Ran my virus scan (as I do every night) and no threats to be found.
Sammy, please report your results, so that others who don't know will feel safe using it....
lots of people here may not know me...... which may be good! LOL
once again....
http://download.cnet.com/Malwarebytes-Anti-Malware/3000-8022_4-10804572.html
the tornado was near Chaguanas, central Trinidad. A small one. But quite the classic formation.
I live near there, and noticed strange weather overhead, and commented on it. But it was raining hard and I never went out to see what was going on.......
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
12:00 PM HST August 10 2009
==============================================
Visible imagery indicates that an area of low pressure (92C) located about 925 miles southwest of the Hawaiian islands has become better organized during the past few hours. Conditions appear favorable for additional development, and this system could become a tropical depression later today or tonight as it moves westward at about 15 mph.
Tropical Cyclone formation Potential
=====================================
There is a HIGH risk of this disturbance to form into a significant tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours
just ran spybot and house call by trend micro and everything is clean
I would think so... Hey StormW posted Bozo the clown, my old boss...
Acemmett90 - Check your mail.
Any chance that the yellow circle will get an invest and get posted here?
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