Hawaii braces for Felicia; 99L near the Cape Verdes Islands may develop
A strong tropical wave (99L) is just south of the Cape Verdes Islands, 800 miles off the coast of Africa. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed a nearly closed surface circulation, stretched out along one axis. The satellite saw winds of up to 45 mph in a band of heavy thunderstorms well south of the Cape Verdes Islands. The islands have seen winds of only 10 - 15 mph and some occasional rain showers thus far from the disturbance. Heavy thunderstorm activity associated with 99L died down this morning, but appears to be making a comeback late this morning. Wind shear is moderate, about 10 knots, and sea surface temperatures are moderately warm, about 27 - 28°C. There is a large area of dry air to 99L's north that is interfering with the storm's organization, though.
Figure 1. Current satellite image of disturbance 99L.
Wind shear is expected to be moderate, 5 - 15 knots, through Wednesday. SSTs will remain relatively constant at 27°C, but the dry, stable air of the Saharan AIr Layer (SAL) to 99L's north will be problem for it. NHC has given 99L a moderate (30 - 50% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. Most of the models show some weak development, but none of them predict 99L will become a hurricane. It is too early to say if 99L will recurve north of the Lesser Antilles Islands or not, since it will be at least 5 days before the storm makes it that far. It is unusual, though, for storms forming this far north to make it all the way across the Atlantic to hit the Lesser Antilles Islands.
The GFS and ECMWF models are predicting the possible development of a new tropical wave coming off the coast of Africa late this week.
Felicia continues to weaken, but is a flash flooding threat to Hawaii
Tropical Storm Felicia has weakened steadily over the past 24 hours, thanks to cool sea surface temperatures and increasing shear. Recent satellite loops show that strong upper-level winds from the west have pushed the storm's heavy thunderstorm activity to the northeast side of the center, exposing the surface center as a swirl of low clouds. Felicia's relatively meager heavy thunderstorm activity is steadily moving away from the center of the storm.
Figure 2. History of hurricane activity over Hawaii since 1950. Hawaii islands have been hit by only 9 tropical cyclones of tropical depression or greater strength, with 4 others passing withing 75 miles of an island. Image credit: NOAA Coastal Services Center.
Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) under Felicia are 25°C, well below the 26°C threshold typically needed to sustain a hurricane. SSTs will slowly increase to 26°C by Tuesday. Wind shear has increased to a high 30 knots, and is expected to increase further to 40 knots by Tuesday. The high shear combined with the cool SSTs should continue to weaken Felicia today. I give a 30% chance that the shear will completely rip away Felicia's heavy thunderstorm activity by the time the storm reaches Hawaii, leaving only a swirl of low-level clouds that will not cause significant flooding problems. The wind speed probabilities forecast shows about a 25% chance Felicia will still be a weak tropical storm at 3 am Hawaiian time Tuesday morning, and a 15% chance the storm will have dissipated. If Felicia does hold together that long, it would be only the tenth tropical cyclone of tropical depression or higher strength to affect the islands since 1950 (Figure 2). Large swells from Felicia are already affecting the Big Island, and a high surf warning has been posted for east-facing shores of the Big Island and other Hawaiian islands. Felicia or its remnants may bring heavy rain, flash flooding, and mud slides to the islands beginning this afternoon, and a Flash Flood Watch has been posted for most of the islands.
Links to follow:
Long range radar from the Big Island
Wundermap for Hawaii
I'll have an update Tuesday morning.
Reader Comments
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I would think so... Hey StormW posted Bozo the clown, my old boss...
Acemmett90 - Check your mail.
Any chance that the yellow circle will get an invest and get posted here?
QUICK SCAN!!!!
Suppose you want to show loop of Caribbean water vapor. First go to that page, highlite and cop the page (see example)
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-wv.html
Then click "image" and insert link and presto.
I think he was pulling everyone's chain !
I was on the Bozo TV show when I was a very little kid. (about 40 years ago) But the mean guy with the popcorn machine scared me. I was carried off to my mother. And all my 5 brothers and sister got goody bags and I didn't. I was a terrible day. I remember like it was yesterday!
Edit: I have deleted all the files that were infected, I also now run 2 virus scanners daily to make sure it doesn't happen again.
thats interesting!!!
why do you assume it was a teenager? most teenagers don't even know how to post viruses
My good friend's grandfather was the original Bozo The Clown. They have his famous red haired wig in a glass case in their basement...true story. Another interesting tidbit that also has nothing to do with weather is that "Bozo" found Jim Hensen playing with marionettes on a street corner and started him on the path that would eventually lead to... The Muppets! And now back to the invest...
Swoooooosh,...Ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh............
How could just entering the blog and posting comments lead to a virus or malware attack?
Seems to me that you would have to download and run an executable file. That said, I know that "tracking" cookies could make there way in unbeknown to many...Which is why I make firefox ask me every time a cookie is set and I usually only allow for session...
Just seems to my mildly tech savvy self that it would be hard to get infected by a virus from the blog...
The creators have gotten very creative, by placing the enable button behind anywhere you can click. Once the "pop-up" comes up, if you click on anything, you are basically screwed.
If you start getting "tons" of pop-ups, warning of Viri....... you are infected.....
once again, to remove, use this free program....
http://download.cnet.com/Malwarebytes-Anti-Malware/3000-8022_4-10804572.html
download, install, update, and do a QUICK scan.... this will get rid of the virus.
As far as where it came from, I would like just 10-minutes in a room with the virus writer! Introduce them to redneck justice! LOL
i am good except that workstation issue...haha
Who knows what we may wake up to tomorrow.
Have a good one
That's what you'd like to think... macs are far from secure.
Some people just have nothing better to do with their time, they like seeing how much trouble they can make.
It may also have gotten here by accident from someone who was infected from a previous site.
Yes you can, it has happened to me the past few days, some fake virus scanner named Advanced Virus Remover downloaded itself on my laptop when I was on this site. I use the Malwarebytes as Thelmores said to get rid of the fake one.
Drak, who was pissed.
SCAREWARE
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2009/08/07/scareware_market/
Water temps are pretty favourable.
Why the Fizzling of the waves?
But my Dell is a Goner..
Thankfully all my personal Katrina Photos,Ike and Portlight Pictures are on a sep off site protected image holder.
perharps its something that the scientist havn't discovered..lol
SAL
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