Hawaii braces for Felicia; 99L near the Cape Verdes Islands may develop
A strong tropical wave (99L) is just south of the Cape Verdes Islands, 800 miles off the coast of Africa. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed a nearly closed surface circulation, stretched out along one axis. The satellite saw winds of up to 45 mph in a band of heavy thunderstorms well south of the Cape Verdes Islands. The islands have seen winds of only 10 - 15 mph and some occasional rain showers thus far from the disturbance. Heavy thunderstorm activity associated with 99L died down this morning, but appears to be making a comeback late this morning. Wind shear is moderate, about 10 knots, and sea surface temperatures are moderately warm, about 27 - 28°C. There is a large area of dry air to 99L's north that is interfering with the storm's organization, though.
Figure 1. Current satellite image of disturbance 99L.
Wind shear is expected to be moderate, 5 - 15 knots, through Wednesday. SSTs will remain relatively constant at 27°C, but the dry, stable air of the Saharan AIr Layer (SAL) to 99L's north will be problem for it. NHC has given 99L a moderate (30 - 50% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. Most of the models show some weak development, but none of them predict 99L will become a hurricane. It is too early to say if 99L will recurve north of the Lesser Antilles Islands or not, since it will be at least 5 days before the storm makes it that far. It is unusual, though, for storms forming this far north to make it all the way across the Atlantic to hit the Lesser Antilles Islands.
The GFS and ECMWF models are predicting the possible development of a new tropical wave coming off the coast of Africa late this week.
Felicia continues to weaken, but is a flash flooding threat to Hawaii
Tropical Storm Felicia has weakened steadily over the past 24 hours, thanks to cool sea surface temperatures and increasing shear. Recent satellite loops show that strong upper-level winds from the west have pushed the storm's heavy thunderstorm activity to the northeast side of the center, exposing the surface center as a swirl of low clouds. Felicia's relatively meager heavy thunderstorm activity is steadily moving away from the center of the storm.
Figure 2. History of hurricane activity over Hawaii since 1950. Hawaii islands have been hit by only 9 tropical cyclones of tropical depression or greater strength, with 4 others passing withing 75 miles of an island. Image credit: NOAA Coastal Services Center.
Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) under Felicia are 25°C, well below the 26°C threshold typically needed to sustain a hurricane. SSTs will slowly increase to 26°C by Tuesday. Wind shear has increased to a high 30 knots, and is expected to increase further to 40 knots by Tuesday. The high shear combined with the cool SSTs should continue to weaken Felicia today. I give a 30% chance that the shear will completely rip away Felicia's heavy thunderstorm activity by the time the storm reaches Hawaii, leaving only a swirl of low-level clouds that will not cause significant flooding problems. The wind speed probabilities forecast shows about a 25% chance Felicia will still be a weak tropical storm at 3 am Hawaiian time Tuesday morning, and a 15% chance the storm will have dissipated. If Felicia does hold together that long, it would be only the tenth tropical cyclone of tropical depression or higher strength to affect the islands since 1950 (Figure 2). Large swells from Felicia are already affecting the Big Island, and a high surf warning has been posted for east-facing shores of the Big Island and other Hawaiian islands. Felicia or its remnants may bring heavy rain, flash flooding, and mud slides to the islands beginning this afternoon, and a Flash Flood Watch has been posted for most of the islands.
Links to follow:
Long range radar from the Big Island
Wundermap for Hawaii
I'll have an update Tuesday morning.
Reader Comments
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Hey man,how are you?
Today was a mess,Rain,flood,Traffic for hours...
This is why i hate August.
yup...the inmates are running the asylum...
What does it mean when the ITCZ is higher in latitude?
...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 16N17W 15N25W 11N29W 11N46W 9N49W 13N57W AND INTO THE SE CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...ABC ISLANDS TO 12N71W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND AND WITHIN 150 NM ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 7N-14N. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 30W-39W AND FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 49W-54W.
noaasite
Agreed. So don't quote it.
Both can go back and edit...
he was referring the Hoover Dam. Good Dam
Hey i was wondering where you went, as i had not seen a post by you today... : )
Viruses are just computer programs, and like all programs they have to be "clicked" to start, which can only be done by a human.
So don't click anything that you don't know where it goes! On the bottom of your browser if you scroll over a link it will say where it goes. Also be aware of "tiny links" those shortcut links that are short in length. That is just a re-direct and can take you to a place where you can't "see" where your going before you click it.
Been noticing that during the past few hours. Not only that, but according to the latest QuikSCAT pass, it now has a FULLY CLOSED surface circulation. May finally be getting going now, but I will wait another 12 hours before really being sold.
y'all are all to be commended...shows we can police ourselves...
now onto the tropics- what si that near the carribean.. anything??
noaa- DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE
SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...
LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS."
Not true. Outdated certs and broken cert chains of trust will NOT show up as viruses. Apples and oranges.
Daughter was on the highway near St Augustine this afternoon in the middle of all that. Said it was Hairy.
How much rain fell on your house? Did you measure?
There was a tornado near Chaguanas yesterday too.
It's about time...
WTPA32 PHFO 110241
TCPCP2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FELICIA ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP082009
500 PM HST MON AUG 10 2009
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR OAHU AND FOR ALL OF
MAUI COUNTY...WHICH INCLUDES THE ISLANDS OF MAUI...KAHOOLAWE...
LANAI...AND MOLOKAI. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE.
AT 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FELICIA
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 152.1 WEST...OR
ABOUT 210 MILES...EAST-NORTHEAST OF HILO HAWAII AND ABOUT 375
MILES...EAST OF HONOLULU HAWAII.
FELICIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THIS TRACK...
THE CENTER OF FELICIA IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ON
TUESDAY WITH RAINBANDS BEGINNING TO AFFECT THE ISLANDS OVERNIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES FROM THE
CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.
A LARGE SWELL GENERATED BY FELICIA IS ALREADY AFFECTING THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THIS SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE
STATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. ALSO...REGARDLESS OF THE INTENSITY OF
FELICIA WHEN IT REACHES THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY OCCUR AND FLASH FLOODING REMAINS A POSSIBILITY.
...SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...20.9N 152.1W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 PM HST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE
ADVISORY AT 1100 PM HST.
$$
FORECASTER BURKE/KNABB
Your back in your own part of the world again.. or will the 'x' man be back?
I love my Mac! Never had a virus in 3 years with it.
Maybe their giving their alien tech. to Bill Gates for his Hurricane Control Machine
What's the deal with the SE Gulf off Tampa?
shearmap
More like 1, haha
That preview button next to the Post Comment button is there for a reason,..mostly to preview ones own post and to allow one to actually see the er,lack of logic or sense in a post.
Use it often..it may save the Local Dimension from turning in on itself too.
Been using macs since 1984- Love them too.
X man will be back tomorrow evening LOL
LOL. But, the completely closed low cannot be ignored.
Boring night for tropics, really. Everything's been said and it's one of those "wait till morning" to check it out.
I hope your getting frequent flier miles to.
So that is you?
No offense to others, but would like to hear it from you.
So don't click anything that you don't know where it goes!
Not totally the case, 'inline' exploits, like attacks against image decoders (jpg, png) or plugins like adobe flash can be automatically executed by viewing a webpage the file is included in (like images on WU for example). This type of exploit can automatically download executable code and run it. Many new exploits have recently been released against flash, adobe pdf's, java, firefox, and IE. Always keep software used by your webbrowser up to date.
I saw that too !- what IS up with that??
Morning checklist:
1. Wake up at 5am
2. Make Coffee
3. While coffee is brewing, check the tropics :-)
Waitcasting... j/k
Exactly. It is a boring night. Best to sleep on it until tomorrow.
My Tuesday wish.....that I don't read one comment on here from anyone saying any system looks like it will be Ana.
After 71 days of 0-0-0, let the NHC say it...
pottery is pottery at home
potteryx is pottery on some foreign island getting paid stupid amounts of money to have fun.
Maybe its a Trabant?
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