Hawaii braces for Felicia; 99L near the Cape Verdes Islands may develop
A strong tropical wave (99L) is just south of the Cape Verdes Islands, 800 miles off the coast of Africa. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed a nearly closed surface circulation, stretched out along one axis. The satellite saw winds of up to 45 mph in a band of heavy thunderstorms well south of the Cape Verdes Islands. The islands have seen winds of only 10 - 15 mph and some occasional rain showers thus far from the disturbance. Heavy thunderstorm activity associated with 99L died down this morning, but appears to be making a comeback late this morning. Wind shear is moderate, about 10 knots, and sea surface temperatures are moderately warm, about 27 - 28°C. There is a large area of dry air to 99L's north that is interfering with the storm's organization, though.
Figure 1. Current satellite image of disturbance 99L.
Wind shear is expected to be moderate, 5 - 15 knots, through Wednesday. SSTs will remain relatively constant at 27°C, but the dry, stable air of the Saharan AIr Layer (SAL) to 99L's north will be problem for it. NHC has given 99L a moderate (30 - 50% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. Most of the models show some weak development, but none of them predict 99L will become a hurricane. It is too early to say if 99L will recurve north of the Lesser Antilles Islands or not, since it will be at least 5 days before the storm makes it that far. It is unusual, though, for storms forming this far north to make it all the way across the Atlantic to hit the Lesser Antilles Islands.
The GFS and ECMWF models are predicting the possible development of a new tropical wave coming off the coast of Africa late this week.
Felicia continues to weaken, but is a flash flooding threat to Hawaii
Tropical Storm Felicia has weakened steadily over the past 24 hours, thanks to cool sea surface temperatures and increasing shear. Recent satellite loops show that strong upper-level winds from the west have pushed the storm's heavy thunderstorm activity to the northeast side of the center, exposing the surface center as a swirl of low clouds. Felicia's relatively meager heavy thunderstorm activity is steadily moving away from the center of the storm.
Figure 2. History of hurricane activity over Hawaii since 1950. Hawaii islands have been hit by only 9 tropical cyclones of tropical depression or greater strength, with 4 others passing withing 75 miles of an island. Image credit: NOAA Coastal Services Center.
Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) under Felicia are 25°C, well below the 26°C threshold typically needed to sustain a hurricane. SSTs will slowly increase to 26°C by Tuesday. Wind shear has increased to a high 30 knots, and is expected to increase further to 40 knots by Tuesday. The high shear combined with the cool SSTs should continue to weaken Felicia today. I give a 30% chance that the shear will completely rip away Felicia's heavy thunderstorm activity by the time the storm reaches Hawaii, leaving only a swirl of low-level clouds that will not cause significant flooding problems. The wind speed probabilities forecast shows about a 25% chance Felicia will still be a weak tropical storm at 3 am Hawaiian time Tuesday morning, and a 15% chance the storm will have dissipated. If Felicia does hold together that long, it would be only the tenth tropical cyclone of tropical depression or higher strength to affect the islands since 1950 (Figure 2). Large swells from Felicia are already affecting the Big Island, and a high surf warning has been posted for east-facing shores of the Big Island and other Hawaiian islands. Felicia or its remnants may bring heavy rain, flash flooding, and mud slides to the islands beginning this afternoon, and a Flash Flood Watch has been posted for most of the islands.
Links to follow:
Long range radar from the Big Island
Wundermap for Hawaii
I'll have an update Tuesday morning.
Reader Comments
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go doom and gloom in 5-7 days when there's actually a serious threat out there...not before there's even a low formed...
Ha I know there is a lot of rich people here.But Wilma's eye was big on the east coast so the eyewall pretty much took over the whole county of Palm Beach and part of Broward too.I just cannot imagine another Andrew roaring through the 7th biggest metro area of the US with over 5 million people in the way.Could be worse than........Katrina.....
I'm not sure of the science behind it, but I remember Erin and Opal in 1995 were during the day, Katrina was during the morning, Dennis was around 2 in the afternoon...and more than those, I'm sure. If I had to guess, I'd say blind luck.
12Z GFS says...... OBX
Wilma also made an AM landfall.
Wow...
The MJO is a large planetary-scale oscillation. It is easier to predict.
sounds just about right, lol
id be careful what address and ideas your putting out their oz, seems like alot of idiots live in the wpb area and may try to come join you with out the proper protection your bringing
And then NYC...
I bet Bastardi will have a field day with this one...
WHXX01 KWBC 101232
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1232 UTC MON AUG 10 2009
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL992009) 20090810 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090810 1200 090811 0000 090811 1200 090812 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.5N 24.9W 15.8N 27.7W 16.7N 30.3W 17.0N 32.8W
BAMD 14.5N 24.9W 15.5N 26.6W 16.5N 28.2W 17.4N 29.9W
BAMM 14.5N 24.9W 15.9N 26.9W 17.0N 28.9W 17.8N 30.8W
LBAR 14.5N 24.9W 15.5N 26.5W 16.6N 28.3W 18.1N 30.0W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 31KTS 34KTS
DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 31KTS 34KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090812 1200 090813 1200 090814 1200 090815 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.4N 35.6W 18.0N 41.2W 19.6N 47.4W 21.9N 54.1W
BAMD 18.3N 32.0W 20.0N 36.1W 22.4N 39.3W 24.2N 40.3W
BAMM 18.8N 33.2W 20.8N 37.8W 23.3N 41.7W 25.3N 43.6W
LBAR 19.6N 31.7W 23.3N 34.7W 26.9N 36.7W 28.0N 36.6W
SHIP 35KTS 38KTS 30KTS 17KTS
DSHP 35KTS 38KTS 30KTS 17KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.5N LONCUR = 24.9W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 14.2N LONM12 = 23.0W DIRM12 = 287DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 13.4N LONM24 = 21.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 125NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
$$
NNNN
A cat 5 hitting Dade county would cause serious damage, but I don't think we would see the type of damage that LA, MS, and Al got.
You also have to remember that many, many homes now have shutters, that a lot of homes rebuilt after Andrew were raised.
Doom and gloom? I'm posting a model.
AH!
did the same thing yesterday took if from fla one run to new orleans the next one back to fla now up the est coast to NYC ? next goes back to fla again really dizzy now need to see other models
Ill be there with the burgers and beer.
Wha? Sombody say somthing?
216 hours outs - models are not very reliable (keep repeating to self)
I have seen several comments regarding the virus that people have gotten. Was it from a link posted here? If so, PLEASE share so others of us can avoid it.Thanks
You're right.
Just be careful from stuff flying through the parking garage.
Fresca Mon is in order seems.
I see nothing at 78W but, 59W is sure getting very interesting....
Yes, I want to know the answer to this too.
No. ModelS still show development of 99L. The GFS, NOGAPS, UKMET, CMC
Eh I still think this can become Ana.
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 13.5N 31.5W
VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 12.08.2009 13.5N 31.5W WEAK
12UTC 12.08.2009 13.2N 33.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.08.2009 13.3N 34.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.08.2009 13.2N 35.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.08.2009 13.7N 37.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.08.2009 14.3N 39.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.08.2009 16.4N 42.2W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 15.08.2009 17.8N 46.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 16.08.2009 17.9N 50.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
Yes unreliable
If you have your computer properly protected... and check to see where the link is actually trying to take you.. your safe
Right smack into Baltimore I-95 coridor.
Wonderful
Very true
However, many many more new condo's and hi-rise buildings since '92 along the Dade / Broward coastline and many folks here have not gone through a major hurriance... Alot of people think Wilma was bad... They ain't seen nothing yet
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