Hawaii braces for Felicia; 99L near the Cape Verdes Islands may develop
A strong tropical wave (99L) is just south of the Cape Verdes Islands, 800 miles off the coast of Africa. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed a nearly closed surface circulation, stretched out along one axis. The satellite saw winds of up to 45 mph in a band of heavy thunderstorms well south of the Cape Verdes Islands. The islands have seen winds of only 10 - 15 mph and some occasional rain showers thus far from the disturbance. Heavy thunderstorm activity associated with 99L died down this morning, but appears to be making a comeback late this morning. Wind shear is moderate, about 10 knots, and sea surface temperatures are moderately warm, about 27 - 28°C. There is a large area of dry air to 99L's north that is interfering with the storm's organization, though.
Figure 1. Current satellite image of disturbance 99L.
Wind shear is expected to be moderate, 5 - 15 knots, through Wednesday. SSTs will remain relatively constant at 27°C, but the dry, stable air of the Saharan AIr Layer (SAL) to 99L's north will be problem for it. NHC has given 99L a moderate (30 - 50% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. Most of the models show some weak development, but none of them predict 99L will become a hurricane. It is too early to say if 99L will recurve north of the Lesser Antilles Islands or not, since it will be at least 5 days before the storm makes it that far. It is unusual, though, for storms forming this far north to make it all the way across the Atlantic to hit the Lesser Antilles Islands.
The GFS and ECMWF models are predicting the possible development of a new tropical wave coming off the coast of Africa late this week.
Felicia continues to weaken, but is a flash flooding threat to Hawaii
Tropical Storm Felicia has weakened steadily over the past 24 hours, thanks to cool sea surface temperatures and increasing shear. Recent satellite loops show that strong upper-level winds from the west have pushed the storm's heavy thunderstorm activity to the northeast side of the center, exposing the surface center as a swirl of low clouds. Felicia's relatively meager heavy thunderstorm activity is steadily moving away from the center of the storm.
Figure 2. History of hurricane activity over Hawaii since 1950. Hawaii islands have been hit by only 9 tropical cyclones of tropical depression or greater strength, with 4 others passing withing 75 miles of an island. Image credit: NOAA Coastal Services Center.
Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) under Felicia are 25°C, well below the 26°C threshold typically needed to sustain a hurricane. SSTs will slowly increase to 26°C by Tuesday. Wind shear has increased to a high 30 knots, and is expected to increase further to 40 knots by Tuesday. The high shear combined with the cool SSTs should continue to weaken Felicia today. I give a 30% chance that the shear will completely rip away Felicia's heavy thunderstorm activity by the time the storm reaches Hawaii, leaving only a swirl of low-level clouds that will not cause significant flooding problems. The wind speed probabilities forecast shows about a 25% chance Felicia will still be a weak tropical storm at 3 am Hawaiian time Tuesday morning, and a 15% chance the storm will have dissipated. If Felicia does hold together that long, it would be only the tenth tropical cyclone of tropical depression or higher strength to affect the islands since 1950 (Figure 2). Large swells from Felicia are already affecting the Big Island, and a high surf warning has been posted for east-facing shores of the Big Island and other Hawaiian islands. Felicia or its remnants may bring heavy rain, flash flooding, and mud slides to the islands beginning this afternoon, and a Flash Flood Watch has been posted for most of the islands.
Links to follow:
Long range radar from the Big Island
Wundermap for Hawaii
I'll have an update Tuesday morning.
Reader Comments
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Thanks.
Rational thoughts are not allowed on this blog tonight. (and yes, I violated my own rule earlier)
Thats the key but,
Yeah.
I think is an Ad.... if your press(ALT,CTRL,DEL) and go to the (Processes) tab you can tell that (or a: iexplorer.exe ) if you like Microsoft,
or B: firefox.exe ) if you like Fire fox is running at you can end it. it should stop the attack. or in my opinion (AD. it like it take a picture of you computer but is just a browser open and making you think is already in you computer
level headed rationality will not be tolerated...
About a Category 2.
and im off ...university tomorrow
I hate getting up early lol xD
'Course cause its gonna hit the Carolina's! ;)
You didn't get slammed with the Virus did you Press?
Couldn't help but laugh at the "7 days" thing since I just watched The Ring...sorry for that off topicness lol
Malwarebytes is better but it will not work with this since it an AD...
I think we should be watching the yellow circle. it is starting to blow-up again.
Do I spy a low-level circulation there?
well does go back to fla this run
Tropical Disturbance Summary (0000z 11AUG)
=========================================
At 9:00 AM JST, Tropical Depression, Former Morakot (996 hPa) located at 32.0N 120.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The depression is reported as moving north-northeast of 10 knots
Yea.. Isabel was the last time that has really happened where they had a bad one. And I was in that one, not a fun experience for us Virgina people. Now I'm a Floridian.
IF 99L can continue to fire convection till the 2am TWO they might go RED.
Chances are they wont but it would have deep convection and a closed surface low.
African wave seems to be doing well.
LOL
I see how you could relate that.
I agree. Which means I'm gonna end up staying up for this 2am TWO for a third night...
I know, the year I moved to Florida I got slammed by Charley, Frances, Ivan and Jeanne after just having to endure Isabel. Then follow that up by Katrina, Rita, and Wilma.
The high res is very impressive..
you could get accuweather pro for that cost
It seems to be consolidating to where the GFS shows it.
I do.
But Accuweather Pro is $25 a month.
Worth it
An area of low pressure associated with a Tropical wave has become better organized over night. This system has a medium chance 30-50% of becoming a Tropical Cyclone in the next 48 hours.
A Strong Tropical Wave is emerging off the African coast line. Conditions are favorable for development and there is a medium chance, 30-50% of this becoming a Tropical Cyclone in the next 48 hours.
A tropical wave associated with an small area of low pressure near the Windward Islands have diminished. There is a low chance, less than 20% of this system becoming a Tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours.
Not so sure about the middle one.
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