Hawaii braces for Felicia; 99L near the Cape Verdes Islands may develop
A strong tropical wave (99L) is just south of the Cape Verdes Islands, 800 miles off the coast of Africa. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed a nearly closed surface circulation, stretched out along one axis. The satellite saw winds of up to 45 mph in a band of heavy thunderstorms well south of the Cape Verdes Islands. The islands have seen winds of only 10 - 15 mph and some occasional rain showers thus far from the disturbance. Heavy thunderstorm activity associated with 99L died down this morning, but appears to be making a comeback late this morning. Wind shear is moderate, about 10 knots, and sea surface temperatures are moderately warm, about 27 - 28°C. There is a large area of dry air to 99L's north that is interfering with the storm's organization, though.
Figure 1. Current satellite image of disturbance 99L.
Wind shear is expected to be moderate, 5 - 15 knots, through Wednesday. SSTs will remain relatively constant at 27°C, but the dry, stable air of the Saharan AIr Layer (SAL) to 99L's north will be problem for it. NHC has given 99L a moderate (30 - 50% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. Most of the models show some weak development, but none of them predict 99L will become a hurricane. It is too early to say if 99L will recurve north of the Lesser Antilles Islands or not, since it will be at least 5 days before the storm makes it that far. It is unusual, though, for storms forming this far north to make it all the way across the Atlantic to hit the Lesser Antilles Islands.
The GFS and ECMWF models are predicting the possible development of a new tropical wave coming off the coast of Africa late this week.
Felicia continues to weaken, but is a flash flooding threat to Hawaii
Tropical Storm Felicia has weakened steadily over the past 24 hours, thanks to cool sea surface temperatures and increasing shear. Recent satellite loops show that strong upper-level winds from the west have pushed the storm's heavy thunderstorm activity to the northeast side of the center, exposing the surface center as a swirl of low clouds. Felicia's relatively meager heavy thunderstorm activity is steadily moving away from the center of the storm.
Figure 2. History of hurricane activity over Hawaii since 1950. Hawaii islands have been hit by only 9 tropical cyclones of tropical depression or greater strength, with 4 others passing withing 75 miles of an island. Image credit: NOAA Coastal Services Center.
Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) under Felicia are 25°C, well below the 26°C threshold typically needed to sustain a hurricane. SSTs will slowly increase to 26°C by Tuesday. Wind shear has increased to a high 30 knots, and is expected to increase further to 40 knots by Tuesday. The high shear combined with the cool SSTs should continue to weaken Felicia today. I give a 30% chance that the shear will completely rip away Felicia's heavy thunderstorm activity by the time the storm reaches Hawaii, leaving only a swirl of low-level clouds that will not cause significant flooding problems. The wind speed probabilities forecast shows about a 25% chance Felicia will still be a weak tropical storm at 3 am Hawaiian time Tuesday morning, and a 15% chance the storm will have dissipated. If Felicia does hold together that long, it would be only the tenth tropical cyclone of tropical depression or higher strength to affect the islands since 1950 (Figure 2). Large swells from Felicia are already affecting the Big Island, and a high surf warning has been posted for east-facing shores of the Big Island and other Hawaiian islands. Felicia or its remnants may bring heavy rain, flash flooding, and mud slides to the islands beginning this afternoon, and a Flash Flood Watch has been posted for most of the islands.
Links to follow:
Long range radar from the Big Island
Wundermap for Hawaii
I'll have an update Tuesday morning.
Reader Comments
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SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 110600Z AUG 09//
WTNT01 KNGU 110600
REF/A/RMG/NAVLANTMETOCCEN NORFOLK VA/100600Z AUG 09//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTNT01 KNGU 110600)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.6N 26.9W TO 14.4N 33.0W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 110600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 16.4N 26.9W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.6 N 26.9 W TO 14.4 N 33.0
W WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTI-
FY ISSUANCE OF A NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT THIS TIME.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 120600Z.
//
Everyone visit the Weather Chat. I'll be there, Bye!
Yes...i expect TD classification later this morning.
95% next report still an invest.
Whats the name for the TD-1C "MAKA"?
Yeah i would have to agree i'm pulling an allnighter anyway...haven't had one in awhile lol
Fancy seeing you here this late. O_O
A welcome sight, though. :D
I pull rather frequent all nighters, actually. Benefit of having no more school (until I find a college, that is). :P
As it's moved from the CV islands, it won't find any land for some hundreds of miles.
TD02
oops! There it is!
A welcome sight, though. :D
I pull rather frequent all nighters, actually. Benefit of having no more school (until I find a college, that is). :P
Yeah i dont start the fall semester till the 24th so i'm cool we about to get some weather rolling through Monore in an hour or so so i'm up for that also...plus after all this time i want to be here when they classify this thing
I see that the models are still looking at the wave behind 99l in a big way. The ECMWF agrees with the GFS that there will be a BIG storm near the northern leewards around the 21st. Here is the web page, I will not post a link as I know there have been problems with viruses popping up in here....
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20a nd%20mslp!240!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2009081100!!/
Yes its renumbered to TD02
Usually no-one here around this time (unless there is a storm)... downside to being five hours ahead.
I was just checking in. Barbados blob, now Caribbean blob not looking too bad this am, is it.
Its 5:30am here. Going to do a few things.
Have a good day.
Cheers.
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CP012009
9:00 AM UTC August 11 2009
====================================
At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression One-C (1009 hPa) located at 13.8N 171.2W or 200 NM south-southwest of of Johnston Island has sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The depression is reported as moving west-northwest at 10 knots.
Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 14.2N 172.7W - 35 knots (Tropical Storm)
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #7
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EP092009
9:00 AM UTC August 11 2009
====================================
At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression Nine-E (1006 hPa) located at 15.1N 126.4W or 1050 NM west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California Peninsula has sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 10 knots.
Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 15.1N 129.8W - 35 knots (Tropical Storm)
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #31
TROPICAL CYCLONE FELICIA (EP082009)
9:00 AM UTC August 11 2009
====================================
At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Felicia (1007 hPa) located at 20.9N 153.0W or 140 NM east-northeast of of Hilo, Hawaii has sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 9 knots.
Gale-force Winds
===============
120 NM from the center
Tropical Cyclone Watches
=======================
A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for Oahu and all of Maui county, which includes the islands of Maui, Kahoolawe, Lanai, and Molokai
Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 21.0N 154.5W - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)
24 HRS: 21.1N 156.4W - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)
48 HRS: 21.5N 160.2W - 25 knots (Low Pressure Area)
TD2
Tropical Disturbance Summary (0600z 11AUG)
=========================================
At 15:00 PM JST, Tropical Depression, Former Morakot (998 hPa) located at 33.0N 121.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The depression is reported as moving northeast of 10 knots
What is the next name for TD 01C?
Maka?
Godd morning to you, Ike
I usually stay out of the fray on the main blog as it just gets ridiculous! Beenreading along and noted that you have been bullish on the ECMWF this year. I agree with you and think that we will have to be vigilant concerning this next system.
It seems, at least according to the models, that TD2 is just plowing out the SAL for the next one, just have to wait and see.
Yeah, the ECMWF is the best model I've seen in the Atlantic in 2009.
Current: 25 knots (Low Pressure Area)
12 HRS: 30 knots (Tropical Depression)
24 HRS: 30 knots (Tropical Depression)
48 HRS: 35 knots (Tropical Storm)
72 HRS: 40 knots (Tropical Storm)
Knew I should of fooled with the storm shutters...That usually stops this stuff from happening.
Thanks folks for staying up late. Always checking what you have to report.
I guess TD 2 is now here.
Is that based on SHIPS?
The 12Z run should give a better idea, since it will use the official NHC track. Currently it uses BAMM which recurves rather quickly. However the NHC may show a similar track, have to wait and see.
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #20
TROPICAL STORM ETAU (T0909)
18:00 PM JST August 11 2009
=========================================
Subject: Category One Typhoon In Sea East Of Japan
At 9:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Etau (994 hPa) located at 33.4N 141.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The storm is reported as moving east at 17 knots.
RSMC Dvorak Intensity:
Gale-force Winds
================
120 NM from the center in south quadrant
70 NM from the center in north quadrant
Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 33.2N 149.1E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
45 HRS: 36.3N 153.1E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
69 HRS: 40.0N 158.8E - EXTRATROPICAL LOW
---
Etau in sea east of Japan is downgraded to a "tropical storm"
TCMAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009
1000 UTC TUE AUG 11 2009
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 28.6W AT 11/1000Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 11 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 28.6W AT 11/1000Z
AT 11/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 27.9W
FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 14.6N 30.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 14.8N 32.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 0SE 0SW 45NW.
FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 15.0N 34.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 15.2N 36.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 16.0N 41.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 17.5N 45.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 19.5N 49.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.4N 28.6W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/1500Z
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
WTNT32 KNHC 111000
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009
600 AM AST TUE AUG 11 2009
...SECOND TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON
FORMS...
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS FORMED OVER
THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC.
AT 600 AM AST...1000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 28.6 WEST OR ABOUT 280
MILES...455 KM...WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH...20
KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM WITHIN A DAY OR TWO.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.
...SUMMARY OF 600 AM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...14.4N 28.6W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
That is one of the main reasons it was classifed along with the 2.0 reading from Dvorak
Another comback story
TCPSP1
BOLETIN
DEPRESION TROPICAL UNO ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 5
NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL012009
500 PM AST VIERNES 29 MAYO DE 2009
...LA DEPRESION PIERDE CARACTERISTICAS TROPICALES...
---
unisys is spamming the wrong system
WTNT42 KNHC 111010
TCDAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009
600 AM AST TUE AUG 11 2009
FIRST LIGHT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE BROAD LOW
PRESSURE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE THAT WE HAVE BEEN
TRACKING OVER THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC HAS ACQUIRED
SUFFICENT ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION TO BE DESIGNATED AS A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS SITUATED OVER MARGINALLY WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS CURRENTLY RATHER
WEAK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS GRADUAL STRENGHENING OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND IS A BLEND OF THE VARIOUS NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE TOOLS. AS USUAL THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO
THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. IF THE
CYCLONE MOVES FARTHER NORTH THAN ANTICIPATED BELOW IT WILL PROBABLY
ENCOUNTER STRONGER SHEAR AND NOT INTENSIFY AS MUCH AS FORECAST. ON
THE OTHER HAND IF THE SYSTEM MOVES FARTHER SOUTH THAN EXPECTED LATE
IN THE PERIOD...IT WILL PROBABLY BECOME STRONGER THAN ANTICIPATED
HERE.
INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 270/11. THIS TRACK IS LIKELY TO MORE OR
LESS CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS DUE TO THE FLOW SOUTH OF A
FAIRLY WELL-ESTABLISHED MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. LATER IN THE
PERIOD...A SLIGHT WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IS LIKELY TO INDUCE A MORE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE
SLOWER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND WELL TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE BAM TRACKS. THIS IS ALSO SOUTH OF THE LATEST HWRF TRACK.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 11/1000Z 14.4N 28.6W 25 KT
12HR VT 11/1800Z 14.6N 30.1W 30 KT
24HR VT 12/0600Z 14.8N 32.3W 35 KT
36HR VT 12/1800Z 15.0N 34.6W 35 KT
48HR VT 13/0600Z 15.2N 36.8W 40 KT
72HR VT 14/0600Z 16.0N 41.2W 45 KT
96HR VT 15/0600Z 17.5N 45.5W 50 KT
120HR VT 16/0600Z 19.5N 49.5W 50 KT
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
Slowish strengthening. Pretty expected line. Also, as someone pointed out earlier, NHC going a little slower in its progression across the Atlantic than the models indicate.
Viewing: 2801 - 2851
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