Hawaii braces for Felicia; 99L near the Cape Verdes Islands may develop
A strong tropical wave (99L) is just south of the Cape Verdes Islands, 800 miles off the coast of Africa. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed a nearly closed surface circulation, stretched out along one axis. The satellite saw winds of up to 45 mph in a band of heavy thunderstorms well south of the Cape Verdes Islands. The islands have seen winds of only 10 - 15 mph and some occasional rain showers thus far from the disturbance. Heavy thunderstorm activity associated with 99L died down this morning, but appears to be making a comeback late this morning. Wind shear is moderate, about 10 knots, and sea surface temperatures are moderately warm, about 27 - 28°C. There is a large area of dry air to 99L's north that is interfering with the storm's organization, though.
Figure 1. Current satellite image of disturbance 99L.
Wind shear is expected to be moderate, 5 - 15 knots, through Wednesday. SSTs will remain relatively constant at 27°C, but the dry, stable air of the Saharan AIr Layer (SAL) to 99L's north will be problem for it. NHC has given 99L a moderate (30 - 50% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. Most of the models show some weak development, but none of them predict 99L will become a hurricane. It is too early to say if 99L will recurve north of the Lesser Antilles Islands or not, since it will be at least 5 days before the storm makes it that far. It is unusual, though, for storms forming this far north to make it all the way across the Atlantic to hit the Lesser Antilles Islands.
The GFS and ECMWF models are predicting the possible development of a new tropical wave coming off the coast of Africa late this week.
Felicia continues to weaken, but is a flash flooding threat to Hawaii
Tropical Storm Felicia has weakened steadily over the past 24 hours, thanks to cool sea surface temperatures and increasing shear. Recent satellite loops show that strong upper-level winds from the west have pushed the storm's heavy thunderstorm activity to the northeast side of the center, exposing the surface center as a swirl of low clouds. Felicia's relatively meager heavy thunderstorm activity is steadily moving away from the center of the storm.
Figure 2. History of hurricane activity over Hawaii since 1950. Hawaii islands have been hit by only 9 tropical cyclones of tropical depression or greater strength, with 4 others passing withing 75 miles of an island. Image credit: NOAA Coastal Services Center.
Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) under Felicia are 25°C, well below the 26°C threshold typically needed to sustain a hurricane. SSTs will slowly increase to 26°C by Tuesday. Wind shear has increased to a high 30 knots, and is expected to increase further to 40 knots by Tuesday. The high shear combined with the cool SSTs should continue to weaken Felicia today. I give a 30% chance that the shear will completely rip away Felicia's heavy thunderstorm activity by the time the storm reaches Hawaii, leaving only a swirl of low-level clouds that will not cause significant flooding problems. The wind speed probabilities forecast shows about a 25% chance Felicia will still be a weak tropical storm at 3 am Hawaiian time Tuesday morning, and a 15% chance the storm will have dissipated. If Felicia does hold together that long, it would be only the tenth tropical cyclone of tropical depression or higher strength to affect the islands since 1950 (Figure 2). Large swells from Felicia are already affecting the Big Island, and a high surf warning has been posted for east-facing shores of the Big Island and other Hawaiian islands. Felicia or its remnants may bring heavy rain, flash flooding, and mud slides to the islands beginning this afternoon, and a Flash Flood Watch has been posted for most of the islands.
Links to follow:
Long range radar from the Big Island
Wundermap for Hawaii
I'll have an update Tuesday morning.
Reader Comments
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This one looks like big trouble for a lot of folks.......
Maybe a 10-15 day event.
Looks like future TD3 may be a huge problem for you and neighboring islands.
Good morning, all. I'm curious...per the 00z GFS, it appears the wave at 50w will come to the Florida east coast; followed by Ana crossing the southern tip of Florida; followed by "Bill" brushing the Florida east coast.
Anyone else seeing this?
Ike I see you are posting pics of destroying the southeast again. Chevycanes is at it, too.
Shame on ya'll..givin' this old woman heart failure on a Tuesday. Save it for Mondays.
We were watching the models all day yesterday, and some suggest this is our next Georges and Hugo, which ironically reoccurs every 9-11 years. I'm actually in denial considering we cannot take on a hurricane this critical time in our economy.
Oops...i meant the 06z GFS
Link
soon we see another yellow circle.
I'm wondering if the area near 14N 51W may get tagged first.
LOL....sorry....GFS has the ECMWF in it's corner. Almost a sure bet to be a cane...maybe major #1.
Looks like the northern islands are it's first threat.
6Z GFS has it doing a Charlie type track. It's so far in advance...just a crap shoot at this point.
That is what the GFS and others are developing.
Yikes...the rest of the model run is in. "Bill" looks to cross Florda from the southwest to northeast!!!
Thanks 456,
Too much activity in all tropical.
Almost looks a bit like a David run. Especially if it moves east a touch coming to FL.
I see that heading for the northern islands right now.
It may get an invest status soon.
I think Ike's comparison to Charley is a pretty good example, too.
No like-ey!
All i can say at this moment is 'TROPICAL TROUBLES' will make an analysis later this morning
PLEASE NOTE: These images are not from the NHC website.
The images are fron GOES.
Aye, just I say David because it starts out by the central Atl rather than the Carib.
Crack out those Johnny Herbert boxes.
David.. Hugo.. Georges. All somewhat similar tracks up until around Hispaniola. Then it depends on the steering. But frighteningly similar.
I'll be lurking today. Everyone play nice! :-)
If you follow the 850mb Vort you can see it reappear up the east coast. Modified my comment about where, not SC/NC but GA/SC, at least on the 06Z run.
Ugh!!! that would not be good.
A watched pot never boils.
I know. I hate it, but Hispaniola has saved florida many times, but at a great expense :-(
Looks like the Atlantic has finally awaken.
As expected the wave @50W is starting to get noticed by NHC.
00Z ECMWF supports GFS forecast for a strong "B" next week.
Yes... and after last year, I don't think Haiti could cope.
Though the model run has it going from the south coast than the north (the north coast of Haiti got smacked repeatedly last year.)
However... this is still only one run. For a storm that hasn't arrived yet. Could still end up doing anything. Or nothing.
Link - Greyelf's blog
Thanks in advance
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