TD 2 forms in the Atlantic; hundreds feared dead from Typhoon Morakot; Felicia hits
Tropical Depression Two has formed out of the strong tropical wave off the coast of Africa we've been watching, and has a good chance of becoming the Atlantic hurricane season's first named storm. Satellite loops of the storm show that heavy thunderstorm activity is increasing near the storm's center, and low-level spiral bands are getting better established. However, dry air to TD 2's north is interfering with this process, and the storm is being slow to organize. This morning's QuikSCAT pass missed TD 2.
Figure 1. Current satellite image of TD 2.
Wind shear over the storm is low, 5 knots, and is expected to remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, through Thursday. Sea Surface temperatures are a marginal 26 - 27°C, and there is plenty of dry, stable air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to to TD 2's north. The relatively cool SSTs and dry air mean that TD 2 will not be able to intensify quickly. However, does appear likely that TD 2 has enough going for it that it will be able to become Tropical Storm Ana later today or on Wednesday. Most of the computer models show some weak development, but none of them predict TD 2 will become a hurricane. It is unusual for storms forming this far north to make it all the way across the Atlantic to hit the Lesser Antilles Islands, and the current NHC forecast track aiming TD 2 north of the islands appears to be a good one.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic
Two other tropical waves, one passing through the Lesser Antilles Islands, and one about 600 miles east of the islands, are mentioned in NHC's Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook. Both of these waves have very limited heavy thunderstorm activity that is not increasing, and are not a threat to develop over the next two days. None of the computer models develop either of these waves.
A large, disorganized tropical wave is just leaving the coast of Africa, south of the Cape Verdes Islands. The GFS and ECMWF models continue to predict the possible development of this wave late this week.
Figure 2. Track and total rain amount from Typhoon Morakot. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.
Death toll from Typhoon Morakot in the hundreds
The death toll from Typhoon Morakot continues climb, as a landslide triggered by the storm's heavy rains hit the small town of Shiao Lin in southern Taiwan. Shiao Lin has a population of 1,300, and 400 - 600 people are missing in the wake of the landslide. Morakot killed an additional 41 elsewhere on Taiwan, with 60 missing. Earlier, the storm killed 22 in the Philippines, and went on to kill 6 in mainland China, which it hit as a tropical storm with 50 mph winds and heavy rain. Morakot's heavy rains caused an estimated $1.3 billion in damage to China.
Morakot moved very slowly as it passed over Taiwan, dumping near world-record amounts of rain. Alishan in the mountains of southern Taiwan recorded 91.98" of rain over a two-day period, one of the heaviest two-day rains in world history. The world 2-day rainfall record is 98.42", set at Reunion Island on March 15 - 17, 1952. Alishan received an astonishing 9.04 feet of rain over a 3-day period. The highest 1-day rainfall total ever recorded on Taiwan occurred Saturday at Weiliao Mountain in Pingtung County, which recorded 1.403 meters (4.6 feet or 55 inches) or rain. Nine the ten highest one-day rainfall amounts in Taiwanese history were reached on Saturday, according to the Central Weather Bureau.
Felicia continues to weaken, but is a flash flooding threat to Hawaii
Tropical Storm Felicia continues to steadily weaken, thanks to high wind shear of 30 knots. Recent satellite loops show that almost no heavy thunderstorm activity remains, and what little there is has been pushed to the northeast side of the center, exposing the surface center as a swirl of low clouds.
Figure 3. Tropical storm Felicia appeared as a swirl of low clouds with one spot of heavy thunderstorm activity to the northeast as it approached Hawaii yesterday evening.
High wind shear will continue to weaken Felicia today, and the storm is unlikely to cause major flooding problems as it moves over the islands today. The greatest danger of flooding will be over the northern islands, where Felicia's main moisture is concentrated.
Link to follow:
Wundermap for Hawaii
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I'll have an update Wednesday morning.
Reader Comments
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02l/TD WILL BECOME 02L/T.S./ANA
I get that too. It's been doing it for days now.
check out this - can't get the image to post
Link Please!!
I would agree with this assessment. No named storm until 5am tomorrow morning. I understand it's speculation, but its best to see what happens day by day and then landfall will be here before you know it.
Hehe... finally... I was going to start doubting my analytical abilities hehe.
Check out future Miss Ana....
(I can't get the image to appear)
See the extrap is in the middle of the models.
Thanks, I had forgotten that they do an upgrade on the Navy site first
it has to do with firefox 3.5. It has nothing to do with any potential malware or viruses. Not sure though why the message pops up though.
It happens to me too, when I hit refresh it says he doesn't have any blog entries and sometimes when I try to quote someone, and it shows the "Your comment:" box, it doesn't show who I was quoting but just a blank space. So then I have to go all the way up and try and quote him again.
Hey PanhandleChuck, been lurking myself quite a bit this year too. Looks like we finally have something to talk about. Amazing how the models continue their trend more to the West....
Which system is this?
Image had an x on it, didnt show up for me. Ill take your word on it tho.
It worked then I refreshed and it went red x. Left the blog and came back and it was working again. O_O
why does the non-dvorak analysis analyses TD2 with 25 kts winds (Ships), and the dvorak analysis analyzes TD2 with winds at 51 kts?
Hey, let's get this a guy some extra brewskis, because he called it.
It was the wave behind TD2..what ever its name will be....LOL
Looks like TD2 is intensifying. Looking quickly over the blog, we expect the NHC to give it a name and take away its number? - sorta the opposite of the "Secret Agent Man"
Bout time!
0.o weird..
Thanks, just gets confusing with all thats going on. And yes... Ouch!
It has to do with database connectivity - it there are a large amount of people accessing/refreshing the page the database can only handle so many connections request at a time. Therefore the pointer will return null or No blog when the number of connections are maxed out. Thats my best diagnosis.
It's a bug in the site, just refresh a few times.
I think they saw what they needed to see
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