Ana, Bill,--and Claudette?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:52 PM GMT on August 16, 2009

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After one of the slowest starts to hurricane season in the past twenty years, the hurricane season of 2009 has exploded with activity over the past 48 hours. This morning, Tropical Depression Four joined Ana and Bill in the Atlantic, and appears poised to become Tropical Storm Claudette later today. Indeed, this may already be Claudette, as morning's QuickSCAT pass showed top winds of 45 mph. NEXRAD radar animations out of Tallahassee, FL, show a small but well-organized tropical cyclone with plenty of heavy thunderstorm activity, and improving low-level spiral banding. Satellite loops show an area of intense thunderstorms with cold cloud tops expanding near the storm's center.


Figure 1. Current long-range radar out of Tallahassee, FL.

It's pretty amazing (and a little unnerving) how quickly this storm sprang up. TD 4 developed literally overnight, and has the potential to be a strong tropical storm by the time it makes landfall tonight along the Florida Peninsula. TD 4 reminds me of 2007's Hurricane Humberto, which became a hurricane just 24 hours after first appearing as a tropical depression. I don't think TD 4 has time to reach hurricane strength, since wind shear as diagnosed by the SHIPS model was moderate, 10 - 15 knots, but it does have time to strengthen into a 50 - 60 mph tropical storm before landfall. Given that the storm is so small, storm surge flooding should not exceed 3 -5 feet, and will not be the major hazard from TD 4; inland flooding from heavy rain of 3 - 6 inches is likely to be the main threat from the storm.

Tropical Storm Ana continues to struggle
Tropical Storm Ana continues to struggle. Dry air continues to plague the storm, thanks to the large area of Saharan air the storm is embedded in. Ana's heavy thunderstorms are limited to just one small spot near the center. Wind shear appears to have lessened some, though, since yesterday. Thunderstorms were not able to form at all near the center yesterday, since strong wind shear tends to blow a storm's heavy thunderstorms to one side of the storm, exposing the low-level center to view. With heavy thunderstorms building near the center this morning, shear appears to be less of a problem for the storm. Top winds seen by this morning's QuikSCAT pass were about 35 mph. The outer rain showers from Ana should appear on radar out of Martinique today.

Shear is low (5 - 10 knots), and is forecast to remain low for the next two days. SSTs are warm, 28°C, and will warm further over the next two days. However, there is so much dry air around Ana that significant strengthening appears unlikely. Nearly all of the models predict Ana will dissipate sometime in the next three days, though the HWRF and GFDL predict that this will happen because Ana will move over the rugged terrain of Hispaniola. Ana is likely not strong enough to survive an encounter with the big island that the Dominican Republic and Haiti share. At this time, it does not appear that Ana will be moist enough to cause a major flooding disaster on Hispaniola.


Figure 2. Water vapor image from this morning showing the large area of dry, Saharan air surrounding Ana, and lying to the northwest of Tropical Storm Bill. Image credit: NOAA/SSD

Tropical Storm Bill gathers strength
Tropical Storm Bill is gathering strength in the middle Atlantic Ocean, and appears poised to become a powerful Cape Verdes-type hurricane later this week. QuikSCAT data from this morning shows a large circulation with top winds of 35 - 40 mph. Water vapor imagery (Figure 2) shows that there is some dry air to the northwest of Bill, and this dry air is being drawn into Bill's center, slowing intensification. It will likely take another day before Bill can moisten the atmosphere enough to ward off the dry air, and allow more significant intensification.

Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots, and is forecast to be in the low to moderate range, 5 - 15 knots, for the next five days. Sea Surface Temperatures are about 27.5°C, and will remain in the 27.5 - 28°C range the next four days, then warm substantially as the storm nears the Lesser Antilles Islands. The combination of low wind shear and sufficiently warm SSTs should allow Bill to intensify steadily to hurricane strength by Wednesday.

The big news is that our most reliable computer model from last year--the ECMWF model--appears to have made the right call yesterday, forecasting that a major trough of low pressure would develop along the U.S. East Coast, turning Bill more to the north. All of the other models--with the notable exception of the UKMET model--have now jumped on the ECMWF bandwagon, forecasting that Bill will pass well north of the Lesser Antilles Islands. The UKMET has Bill hitting the islands, but is being discounted since it is an outlier. It currently appears that the trough approaching the U.S. East Coast will be strong enough to recurve Bill before it reaches the U.S., though it is too early to be confident of this. Several of the longer range models show Bill passing near Bermuda or Nova Scotia, Canada.

I'll have an update later today.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Funkadelic:
As of 3:00pm EST, Anna is north of forcast points, and so is bill.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

If you look at Bill his initialized point was just after a westerly wobble .. or just before a northerly one. Regardless the prevailing currents are west. He will continue West to WNW in the nearterm. After that? Who knows anyone from Mexico to nova scotia needs to be prepared. Me personally I prefer a southerly track. Until I more northerly components in steering I'll remain of that opinion.
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1674. sngalla
Quoting HurricaneKyle:


Oh thats a shocker, they're shifting back west ROFL! Thats why I don't put faith in models this far out.


It is flip flop season. Models will go back and forth.
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Oh thats a shocker, they're shifting back west ROFL! Thats why I don't put faith in models this far out.

I dont find they shifted any?
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1671. Drakoen
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29942
Quoting Tazmanian:


???
it is in English, it is a different story if he doesn't know how to read it.
1669. Drakoen
Quoting WPBHurricane05:
18Z early for Bill.

What do you know...west they go!


That would only happen if it bust the trough
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29942
1668. BA
Quoting LightningCharmer:
Are you using Safari for your browser? Try downloading Firefox or Opera for Mac.

Wunderground does have a support page. Someone here I'm sure has a link.


I use FF, may be a problem with that, I will try another browser
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Skylink - Great shot of Claudette's COC on the southeast radar mosaic. Would love to see a few more frames as she could definitely be stalled.
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1666. Relix
Is it right to think Bill could move even more to the West?
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Haha, TWC calls this the "Atlantic Explosion". Quite funny actually.
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the mb in bill has drop from 997mb too 994mb and wind are up too 65mph
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Quoting WPBHurricane05:
18Z early for Bill.

What do you know...west they go!


Oh thats a shocker, they're shifting back west ROFL! Thats why I don't put faith in models this far out.
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Quoting CapeFish:


I posted this earlier, and I think it bears reposting:

I am not sure why for the last two days people here have compared how the models treated Dean is in anyway similar to Bill.

Look:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2007/graphics/al04/loop_5W.shtml

There was a very brief time, just an advisory or two that had Dean barely brushing by the northern islands, but they quickly righted themselves. Dean was not forecast to turn out to sea, which some people make it sound like.

Ivan's forecast was a bit more problematic, but it did stay in the five day forecast cone throughout. This is why you should focus on the entire cone, not just the middle.

Link:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2004/IVAN_graphics.shtml

Very different storms, and very different model histories.



Dean and Ike are not the only storms.

Ana and many other never ended up at their 5-day points.

The point was 5-day forecasts not necessarily similar storms.

Also many inlcuding I have stressed the fact that Bill is not another Dean, the main reason being the high 2007 was way stronger.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting WPBHurricane05:
18Z early for Bill.

What do you know...west they go!
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
What affect will the ULL moving in from the east will have on Claud?
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Quoting WPBHurricane05:
18Z early for Bill.

What do you know...west they go!


Are those further west than 12Z?
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1658. 996tt
Quoting AFCriskDOTCOM:
The thermodynamics with Claudette are not intense; therefore, expect most of the strongest winds (above 50 mph squalls) NOT to mix down to the surface.


Haha, one thing I have learned is this is a bunch of conjecture regardless how many big words you try and use to support the conjecture and Steve Lyons and those with a bunch of fancy equipment don't do much better than mua whose degrees have nothing to do with weather.
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Quoting WPBHurricane05:
18Z early for Bill.

What do you know...west they go!
i think it should be a little more southerly.
Quoting winter123:


in english please?


???
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1655. Skylink
Quoting hurricaster:


Checked out the webcams. Great job. Gotta love it. Many boat out on the water around Destin, Panama City. Hilarious! What a monster storm.
I agree, not sure I would want to be boating now, fools..


HURRICANE WEB CAMS

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tazmanian:
000
WHXX01 KWBC 161903
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1903 UTC SUN AUG 16 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE BILL (AL032009) 20090816 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090816 1800 090817 0600 090817 1800 090818 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.5N 39.2W 13.3N 42.5W 14.1N 45.5W 14.5N 48.3W
BAMD 12.5N 39.2W 13.3N 42.3W 14.2N 45.3W 15.0N 48.0W
BAMM 12.5N 39.2W 13.2N 42.6W 13.9N 45.8W 14.3N 48.5W
LBAR 12.5N 39.2W 13.2N 42.2W 14.1N 45.5W 14.6N 48.9W
SHIP 55KTS 67KTS 79KTS 89KTS
DSHP 55KTS 67KTS 79KTS 89KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090818 1800 090819 1800 090820 1800 090821 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.0N 50.8W 17.7N 55.0W 22.1N 60.3W 25.9N 65.1W
BAMD 15.8N 50.5W 18.3N 54.8W 22.1N 58.9W 27.8N 62.7W
BAMM 14.9N 50.9W 17.6N 54.9W 21.8N 59.4W 26.5N 63.7W
LBAR 15.1N 52.3W 16.4N 58.3W 21.3N 61.3W 26.9N 64.4W
SHIP 96KTS 107KTS 106KTS 103KTS
DSHP 96KTS 107KTS 106KTS 103KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.5N LONCUR = 39.2W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 11.5N LONM12 = 36.5W DIRM12 = 290DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 11.2N LONM24 = 34.5W
WNDCUR = 55KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 40KT
CENPRS = 994MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 120NM RD34SE = 120NM RD34SW = 60NM RD34NW = 90N


in english please?
Member Since: July 29, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 1777
Quoting canesrule1:
i think 75



nop 456 was right

000
WHXX01 KWBC 161903
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1903 UTC SUN AUG 16 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE BILL (AL032009) 20090816 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090816 1800 090817 0600 090817 1800 090818 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.5N 39.2W 13.3N 42.5W 14.1N 45.5W 14.5N 48.3W
BAMD 12.5N 39.2W 13.3N 42.3W 14.2N 45.3W 15.0N 48.0W
BAMM 12.5N 39.2W 13.2N 42.6W 13.9N 45.8W 14.3N 48.5W
LBAR 12.5N 39.2W 13.2N 42.2W 14.1N 45.5W 14.6N 48.9W
SHIP 55KTS 67KTS 79KTS 89KTS
DSHP 55KTS 67KTS 79KTS 89KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090818 1800 090819 1800 090820 1800 090821 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.0N 50.8W 17.7N 55.0W 22.1N 60.3W 25.9N 65.1W
BAMD 15.8N 50.5W 18.3N 54.8W 22.1N 58.9W 27.8N 62.7W
BAMM 14.9N 50.9W 17.6N 54.9W 21.8N 59.4W 26.5N 63.7W
LBAR 15.1N 52.3W 16.4N 58.3W 21.3N 61.3W 26.9N 64.4W
SHIP 96KTS 107KTS 106KTS 103KTS
DSHP 96KTS 107KTS 106KTS 103KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.5N LONCUR = 39.2W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 11.5N LONM12 = 36.5W DIRM12 = 290DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 11.2N LONM24 = 34.5W
WNDCUR = 55KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 40KT
CENPRS = 994MB OUTPRS
= 1011MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 120NM RD34SE = 120NM RD34SW = 60NM RD34NW = 90N
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I think Bill is intensifying and i'm starting to see a more Northerly component
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Quoting Weather456:


hard to say. The current forecast is well away from the islands, so a shift would place it a distance still. but I still dont buy the NHC official track. More than often, these systems never end up at there 5 day position, ie. Dean and Ike


I posted this earlier, and I think it bears reposting:

I am not sure why for the last two days people here have compared how the models treated Dean is in anyway similar to Bill.

Look:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2007/graphics/al04/loop_5W.shtml

There was a very brief time, just an advisory or two that had Dean barely brushing by the northern islands, but they quickly righted themselves. Dean was not forecast to turn out to sea, which some people make it sound like.

Ivan's forecast was a bit more problematic, but it did stay in the five day forecast cone throughout. This is why you should focus on the entire cone, not just the middle.

Link:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2004/IVAN_graphics.shtml

Very different storms, and very different model histories.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Claudette interacting with ULL in West Central GOM making for a very interesting dynamic.
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18Z early for Bill.

What do you know...west they go!
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
Quoting champagnedrmz:
If Bill gets to major hurricane status, couldn't it ignore the trough and make its own path? I was asking because of reading that the bigger and more powerful the storm the less likely it is to predict.


Last time I checked, hurricanes never predicted. LOL.
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Quoting champagnedrmz:
If Bill gets to major hurricane status, couldn't it ignore the trough and make its own path? I was asking because of reading that the bigger and more powerful the storm the less likely it is to predict.


Bill might actually be strong enough at peak to break through the trough, 120 MPH is certainly strong enough.
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Hmmmmm fl, it's up for me.

Try this and click 'Beach Cam' (faces SSE) .... the other cam 'Sunset Cam' faces SW

EDIT: I refreshed and all the cams are down...hopefully they'll come back up
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1644. julia78
Quoting JAC737:
The weatherstudent is probably not a homeowner or parent. Storms = money. When you have to pay for plywood, gas, food, when you have to pay for child care because school is closed, when you are ripping out sopping wet drywall and carpeting and crawling around in your attic looking for the hole in your roof, when you are trying to come up with $2,000 for a new fence, $3,000 deductible for a new roof, etc., etc., when you have 22 people from five families live with you for a week, you understand the power of a storm. Till then it's all fun and games for him.


I agree
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I'm not relaxing until Bill passes 25...maybe 30. These storms do some funny things...dolly about drove me crazy! She is..she isn't...what's that shape remind you of...Ugh!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
This is my first post in over one year. How are all of my friends, and all of the experts? I usually piss some people off with my posts, but I think it is in my genes. Excuse me if I do. I have been posting for many years during hurricane season. Welcome to all of the rookies and newbies. Palm Beach county here. I usually break out in hives when an approaching storm is with 2 days. Not my pretty time. Everone at work wonders if I have some rare tropical disease. I tell them its stormitis. I also have Dyselxia...5 out of 4 people have it. Anyway, I am back.Put up with me or ban me,....
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Quoting champagnedrmz:
If Bill gets to major hurricane status, couldn't it ignore the trough and make its own path? I was asking because of reading that the bigger and more powerful the storm the less likely it is to predict.

The stronger a hurricane gets, the more it will move north. I think it is the coriolis effect.
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Quoting Weather456:
Bill will likely be 65mph at 5PM
i think 75
000
WHXX01 KWBC 161903
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1903 UTC SUN AUG 16 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE BILL (AL032009) 20090816 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090816 1800 090817 0600 090817 1800 090818 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.5N 39.2W 13.3N 42.5W 14.1N 45.5W 14.5N 48.3W
BAMD 12.5N 39.2W 13.3N 42.3W 14.2N 45.3W 15.0N 48.0W
BAMM 12.5N 39.2W 13.2N 42.6W 13.9N 45.8W 14.3N 48.5W
LBAR 12.5N 39.2W 13.2N 42.2W 14.1N 45.5W 14.6N 48.9W
SHIP 55KTS 67KTS 79KTS 89KTS
DSHP 55KTS 67KTS 79KTS 89KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090818 1800 090819 1800 090820 1800 090821 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.0N 50.8W 17.7N 55.0W 22.1N 60.3W 25.9N 65.1W
BAMD 15.8N 50.5W 18.3N 54.8W 22.1N 58.9W 27.8N 62.7W
BAMM 14.9N 50.9W 17.6N 54.9W 21.8N 59.4W 26.5N 63.7W
LBAR 15.1N 52.3W 16.4N 58.3W 21.3N 61.3W 26.9N 64.4W
SHIP 96KTS 107KTS 106KTS 103KTS
DSHP 96KTS 107KTS 106KTS 103KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.5N LONCUR = 39.2W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 11.5N LONM12 = 36.5W DIRM12 = 290DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 11.2N LONM24 = 34.5W
WNDCUR = 55KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 40KT
CENPRS = 994MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 120NM RD34SE = 120NM RD34SW = 60NM RD34NW = 90N
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Quoting winter123:
eye of bill is beginning to form




ana somehow surviving, rivals smallest TS record?




claud. drifting NW and center exposed



bill i very close to ane eye
Not sure what's happening with Claudette. The COC has opened up on radar. Only thing I can think of is interaction with land is hurting it. A slight relocation of the center to the south and west might be occurring, but it's not by much. Think it's mainly more of the center opening up giving it that appearance.
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Claudette has definitely lost its once-well-defined COC, and I'm waiting for the emergence of another before making any more predictions.
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Bill will likely be 65mph at 5PM
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting Weather456:


I doubt Bill will enter the Caribbean. since its already moving wnw.

It is the concern of Bill being closer to the NE Leeward Islands than what is being forecast.


Yeah, this. Its too far out to know when/if Bill will recurve, but it might get close to the Leeward Islands before.
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Quoting Skylink:
I have just updated the web cams, click below for cams in the path of Claudette. If you have any extra links I will add them, so let me know thanks!


Link


Checked out the webcams. Great job. Gotta love it. Many boat out on the water around Destin, Panama City. Hilarious! What a monster storm.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
at 11 he was at 38.4W and now he is 39.8 in about 4 hours that (1 point of latitude is 70 miles) it is moving around 21+ MPH
eye of bill is beginning to form




ana somehow surviving, rivals smallest TS record?




claud. drifting NW and center exposed



Member Since: July 29, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 1777
I remember when Ike was supposed to hit NC. Then it missed the right turn.....
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Going by that last image, Bill's center is exactly where it's been for ages, at 12 to 13 degrees north, so where people are getting all this northward movement from is a bit of a mystery.
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If Bill gets to major hurricane status, couldn't it ignore the trough and make its own path? I was asking because of reading that the bigger and more powerful the storm the less likely it is to predict.
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The thermodynamics with Claudette are not intense; therefore, expect most of the strongest winds (above 50 mph squalls) NOT to mix down to the surface.
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1626. flsky
Quoting BajaALemt:
Woohoo! Home from work...tracking 'er in..

Here's a link to Schooners in PCB (bout 5 minutes from me).....live webcam

Link


Can't see anything. You think it's been blown out?
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It is starting to get breezy in panama city beach
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.