Claudette hits Florida; Ana approaches Puerto RIco; Bill becomes our first hurricane
Tropical Storm Claudette made landfall at about 1:15 am EDT near the eastern end of Santa Rosa Island, just southeast of Fort Walton Beach in Florida. Claudette's top winds were around 50 mph. A Personal Weather Station in Eastpoint, FL recorded sustained winds of 49 mph, gusting to 66 mph last night. So far, the rain from Claudette has had a tough time penetrating inland (Figure 2). Heavy rains of 3 - 4 inches have been confined to a narrow strip of coast, and Claudette is unlikely to cause any major flooding. Apalachicola received just over 4 inches of rain so far from Claudette. Radar animations out of the Florida Panhandle show that heavy rains continue along the coast in association with a main spiral band of Claudette, and these rains will gradually subside today.
Figure 1. Radar reflectivity image of Tropical Storm Claudette as it approached landfall just southeast of Fort Walton Beach shortly after midnight on 8/17/09.
The tropics featured a rare triple threat the past two days--simultaneous named storms beginning with the letters A, B, and C. The last time this occurred was in the slow-starting 1984 hurricane season, when Tropical Storms Arthur, Bertha, and Cesar were all active on September 1. This year's A, B, and C storms all got their names in just a 33 hour span. This is not a record, since in 1995, three tropical storms--Humberto, Iris, and Jerry--got their names in a 27-hour span (thanks to NOAA's Ryan Sharp for looking up this stat).
Figure 2. Total precipitation estimated by radar for Claudette, as of 3:28pm EDT 8/17/09.
Ana not dead yet
Tropical Depression Ana continues to cling to life, and is now approaching landfall in Puerto Rico. Radar animations from the San Juan, Puerto Rico radar show a surface circulation just southeast of the island, with some low-level spiral banding trying to develop to the south. Recent satellite images also show a rejuvenation of the heavy thunderstorm activity near Ana's center, as the storm regroups from being nearly torn apart yesterday. Ana has already dumped up to 4 inches of rain along the north coast of Puerto Rico, according to radar-estimates.
It is unlikely that Ana will survive past today, however, since the storm will move over both Puerto Rico and the rugged terrain of Hispaniola. The high mountains of these islands should act to disrupt the relatively small and fragile circulation of Ana. None of the computer models foresee that Ana will survive passage over Hispaniola. The Dominican Republic can expect 3 - 6 inches of rain from Ana, and Haiti can expect 1 - 3 inches.
Figure 3. Total precipitation estimated by radar from Ana for Puerto Rico.
Bill becomes the first Atlantic hurricane of 2009
Hurricane Bill continues to gather strength, and is now the first hurricane of the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season. An eye has appeared on visible and infrared satellite imagery, and Bill is displaying an impressive symmetry, with plenty of low-level spiral banding.
Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots, and is forecast to be in the low range through Wednesday. With Sea Surface Temperatures only 27°C today, substantial intensification may not occur until Tuesday and Wednesday, when SSTs warm to 28 - 29°C and ocean heat content sharply increases. By Thursday, Bill is expected to leave the favorable upper-level wind environment it currently finds itself in, and moderate shear of 15 - 20 knots may limit further intensification.
Water vapor satellite imagery shows that there is a modest trough of low pressure in the upper atmosphere near 50°W longitude, that Bill is currently approaching. All of the computer models except the UKMET predict that this trough will be strong enough to turn Bill more to the northwest so that the hurricane misses the Lesser Antilles Islands. The UKMET predicts the trough will not affect Bill much, and that the hurricane will pass through or just north of the islands on Thursday. For now, the UKMET solution is being discounted, since the trough at 50W appears substantial enough on satellite imagery to be able to turn Bill more to the northwest.
A much larger trough of low pressure is expected to develop along the U.S. East Coast late this week, turning Bill even more to the northwest. Most of the models predict Bill will pass very close to Bermuda on Saturday as a result. The HWRF model predicts Bermuda will receive a direct hit at Category 4 strength. Until Bill interacts with the small trough at 50°W, it is too early to be confident of the potential threat to Bermuda. By Tuesday, we should have a much better idea of the threat. Likewise, I would like to see the UKMET model come around in line with the other models before dismissing the possible threat to the U.S. East Coast. It currently appears that Bill will miss the U.S. East Coast, but that a strike on the Canadian provinces of Newfoundland or Nova Scotia is possible.
I'll have an update Tuesday morning, or possibly this afternoon.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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that picture looks SE
I know they are the experts, but i feel there is no ways its moving 285 degrees.
WTNT33 KNHC 180232
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE BILL ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
1100 PM AST MON AUG 17 2009
...BILL STRENGTHENS TO A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE...
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.3 WEST OR ABOUT 865 MILES...
1395 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.
BILL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WITH
A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY.
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
INCREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
BILL COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150
MILES...240 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 967 MB...28.56 INCHES.
...SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...15.0N 48.3W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/PASCH
I see otherwise. Not much changed from 5PM Advisory
You said it was heading SE....LOL
Wow, Delaware is now in the track of the 5 day cone.
Yeah i agree but they not going to mention a slight direction change and make people feel uneasy they are going to keep saying West northwest for now
it wasnt when i posted, and yeah its slightly more west.
it clearly shows it isn't.
BILL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WITH GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY.
Goodnight. It's pretty likely that Bill will still be out there in the morning.
Eh idk..
I'm out for tonight.
Good night all
Does anyone have Al Gore's cell phone # ??
Sure looks like it to me on the southern end of the track. If you were to continue the turn it would move very close to Delaware. So yes its in track with the 5 day cone, margin of error.
Bill 11 pm NHC track (you can see the entire US East coast)
Intresting bending.
if this wasn't so, something weird would be going on.
really weird.
FORECAST RATIONALE REMAINS UNCHANGED. A WEAKNESS ALONG 50-55W IS
FORECAST TO ERODE A LARGE PORTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC BEGINNING AS SOON AS 24 HOURS FROM NOW. AS A
RESULT...THE GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THAT BILL HAS
MAINTAINED FOR SEVERAL DAYS SHOULD BEGIN TO BEND MORE TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST BY 48-72 HOURS. BEYOND 72 HOURS...BILL SHOULD BE STEERED
ON A NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY TRACK WHERE IT SHOULD BEGIN
ENCOUNTERING THE EFFECTS OF A DIGGING LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NOT ALL THAT
DIFFERENT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY PACKAGE...WITH ONLY COSMETIC
CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST TRACK.
Can anyone explain what is a cosmetic change in track in meteorology?
now there you go, stirring the pot! LOL
hehehe
stronger for 1
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