Claudette hits Florida; Ana approaches Puerto RIco; Bill becomes our first hurricane
Tropical Storm Claudette made landfall at about 1:15 am EDT near the eastern end of Santa Rosa Island, just southeast of Fort Walton Beach in Florida. Claudette's top winds were around 50 mph. A Personal Weather Station in Eastpoint, FL recorded sustained winds of 49 mph, gusting to 66 mph last night. So far, the rain from Claudette has had a tough time penetrating inland (Figure 2). Heavy rains of 3 - 4 inches have been confined to a narrow strip of coast, and Claudette is unlikely to cause any major flooding. Apalachicola received just over 4 inches of rain so far from Claudette. Radar animations out of the Florida Panhandle show that heavy rains continue along the coast in association with a main spiral band of Claudette, and these rains will gradually subside today.
Figure 1. Radar reflectivity image of Tropical Storm Claudette as it approached landfall just southeast of Fort Walton Beach shortly after midnight on 8/17/09.
The tropics featured a rare triple threat the past two days--simultaneous named storms beginning with the letters A, B, and C. The last time this occurred was in the slow-starting 1984 hurricane season, when Tropical Storms Arthur, Bertha, and Cesar were all active on September 1. This year's A, B, and C storms all got their names in just a 33 hour span. This is not a record, since in 1995, three tropical storms--Humberto, Iris, and Jerry--got their names in a 27-hour span (thanks to NOAA's Ryan Sharp for looking up this stat).
Figure 2. Total precipitation estimated by radar for Claudette, as of 3:28pm EDT 8/17/09.
Ana not dead yet
Tropical Depression Ana continues to cling to life, and is now approaching landfall in Puerto Rico. Radar animations from the San Juan, Puerto Rico radar show a surface circulation just southeast of the island, with some low-level spiral banding trying to develop to the south. Recent satellite images also show a rejuvenation of the heavy thunderstorm activity near Ana's center, as the storm regroups from being nearly torn apart yesterday. Ana has already dumped up to 4 inches of rain along the north coast of Puerto Rico, according to radar-estimates.
It is unlikely that Ana will survive past today, however, since the storm will move over both Puerto Rico and the rugged terrain of Hispaniola. The high mountains of these islands should act to disrupt the relatively small and fragile circulation of Ana. None of the computer models foresee that Ana will survive passage over Hispaniola. The Dominican Republic can expect 3 - 6 inches of rain from Ana, and Haiti can expect 1 - 3 inches.
Figure 3. Total precipitation estimated by radar from Ana for Puerto Rico.
Bill becomes the first Atlantic hurricane of 2009
Hurricane Bill continues to gather strength, and is now the first hurricane of the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season. An eye has appeared on visible and infrared satellite imagery, and Bill is displaying an impressive symmetry, with plenty of low-level spiral banding.
Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots, and is forecast to be in the low range through Wednesday. With Sea Surface Temperatures only 27°C today, substantial intensification may not occur until Tuesday and Wednesday, when SSTs warm to 28 - 29°C and ocean heat content sharply increases. By Thursday, Bill is expected to leave the favorable upper-level wind environment it currently finds itself in, and moderate shear of 15 - 20 knots may limit further intensification.
Water vapor satellite imagery shows that there is a modest trough of low pressure in the upper atmosphere near 50°W longitude, that Bill is currently approaching. All of the computer models except the UKMET predict that this trough will be strong enough to turn Bill more to the northwest so that the hurricane misses the Lesser Antilles Islands. The UKMET predicts the trough will not affect Bill much, and that the hurricane will pass through or just north of the islands on Thursday. For now, the UKMET solution is being discounted, since the trough at 50W appears substantial enough on satellite imagery to be able to turn Bill more to the northwest.
A much larger trough of low pressure is expected to develop along the U.S. East Coast late this week, turning Bill even more to the northwest. Most of the models predict Bill will pass very close to Bermuda on Saturday as a result. The HWRF model predicts Bermuda will receive a direct hit at Category 4 strength. Until Bill interacts with the small trough at 50°W, it is too early to be confident of the potential threat to Bermuda. By Tuesday, we should have a much better idea of the threat. Likewise, I would like to see the UKMET model come around in line with the other models before dismissing the possible threat to the U.S. East Coast. It currently appears that Bill will miss the U.S. East Coast, but that a strike on the Canadian provinces of Newfoundland or Nova Scotia is possible.
I'll have an update Tuesday morning, or possibly this afternoon.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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its expected to weaken in between, it looks like BILL may be wes tof the weakness , but official forecast suggest the weakness will continue, and Bill as it moves WNW would start moving NW due to a larger weakness, and then the trough will pick it up and turn it NNW to NNE afterwards.
Question is, how far south will BILL be tomorrow, and how far west.. its slowed down ebcause its almost stuck in between the two high's.
03L/H/B/C2
MARK
14.95N/48.63W
Thank you. My thoughts exactly.
there might be TWO HIGH's up in the upper levels, one is pulling it NNW, the other is pushing it WSW, in result is moving generally due west or just north of htat, its slowed down because of that.
almost to 50 W, STILL not to 15N
how fast is bill moving now?
Its crossing 15N now.
and how is that a problem?
Bill south, and west of all these model plots.
Within about 150 miles from the coast, Bill will still create conditions to rival a good ol' NorEaster and very heavy coastal waves. Even a near miss will shut down all the harbors and cause coastal erosion and flooding problems. The collision of warm, humid air mass with cold, drier Canadian air could cause a massive tornado outbreak in the North-East.
Close counts in horseshoes, hand grenades and hurricanes.
Did I say it was?
You cant really tell, the eye keeps popping up and fizzles, its constantly fluctating from 15N and 14.9N atleast it has been in the past couple of hours.. at the same time moving slowly westward
not quite...still struggling with dry air...i dont think we will see a really good defined eye for a few more hours...still seems to be sucking in dry air...
If they went in at 12Z then the data would be put into the 18Z models. Sometimes though they wait until 00Z.
I think the beginning of a Hurricane in the Atlantic is always down played and I really can't understand why because of the fact that it is so far out and will take time to determine landfall. I feel that it gives people on the East Coast a false sense of security. Isn't it better to be prepared and it not happen then to be not prepare and have it take you by surprise. People put to much faith in our "Media", that's why I always am on this site.
As a past dweller in Mass., now in Florida, 19 years, Hurricanes are intriguing to say. More of threat where I live now, Boynton Beach, Fl. rather than Belligham Mass. Hurricane Gloria was my first and only experience up north, in 1985 with a tropical system affecting the North East, and it was very interesting to say the least. Had no idea what was coming at us and even why/where it came from. As fars as Bill is concerned for New England, I would say there is a slight chance it could come close. I am not an expert by no means, but, keep an eye on him, and I believe he will stay to the east of you, if the current models and scenarios play out to their truition. GO RED SOX AND PATRIOTS
if they get it tomorrow, it should be on the 8EDT models
Well, bien sur, cher, if you're a True Cajun like you say. I may be an anglo, but I live in the heart of Acadie.
from what i thought/remember...its usually the 2nd to 3rd run after the first couple flights that really start using the info for more precise guidance....so tomorrow nights models should have the data and show us whats going on in there...
10-4...any thoughts on what's inhibiting it's development? Dry air?
hey Baha how are you long time no chat. I actually did check and it is off as Bill continued to move west and then missed the first trough. My statement was simply these things move east, west, nw, or just n of west (thats for Drak) Several on here keep saying if anyone points out its not going where its suppose to they become a something caster. In the end The NHC is usually on target. However the variation of information vs what happens is there and many chose to point it out doesnt make us bad or smelly !
only one more hour, then were in the dark. :/
Thanks St. Simons - our house in Savannah is still there and not sold...keeping a tight eye on stuff. Waiting for our first earthquake since our return to the west though. Stay safe.
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