Bill weakens, but still generating huge waves
Hurricane Bill has peaked in intensity, and now shows signs of weakening. Visible and infrared satellite imagery show that the hurricane is no longer as symmetric as it once was, with an oval instead of circular shape to its cloud pattern. Upper-level cirrus clouds are restricted on the storm's southwest side, indicating that upper-level winds from the southwest are shearing the storm. The University of Wisconsin CIMSS wind shear analysis shows about 10 - 15 knots of wind shear impacting Bill. The latest 8:18am EDT eye report from the Hurricane Hunters indicated that the eyewall had a gap in its southwest side, and the pressure had risen 2 mb since last night, to 951 mb. Maximum winds at the surface observed by the SFMR instrument were only Category 2 strength, though winds measured at the aircraft flight level of 10,000 feet still suggested Bill may be a Category 3 hurricane.
Wind shear is forecast to remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, for the next three days, and it is possible Bill may see a relaxation of the wind shear affecting it, allowing re-intensification to Category 4 status. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) will be plenty warm over the next three days, as Bill traverses a region of ocean with SSTs of 28 - 29°C. Total ocean heat content is at a maximum today, and will gradually decline over the next three days.
Figure 1. Visible satellite image of Bill at 1:33 pm EDT Thursday 8/20/09. Bill had an oval shape oriented SW - NE, and was missing upper-level cirrus clouds on the southwest side, indicating that wind shear from strong upper-level southwesterly winds was affecting it.
Water vapor satellite loops continue to show two small "short-wave" troughs of low pressure to the northwest of Bill, and these troughs are continuing to steer Bill to the northwest. The short wave troughs (so called because they have a relatively small amplitude and wavelength) are not strong enough to turn Bill due north, so Bill is expected to miss Bermuda. The official NHC forecast has the radius of tropical storm force winds from Bill barely reaching Bermuda on Saturday, so the island can expect sustained winds in the 35 - 45 mph range for a few hours on Saturday if the hurricane follows the NHC forecast track.
Figure 2. Visible satellite image of Bill's eye zoomed in, taken from NASA's Aqua spacecraft at 10:15am EDT Wednesday August 19, 2009. Image credit: NASA GSFC.
An unusually strong "long wave" trough of low pressure (called long wave because of its large amplitude and wavelength) is expected to develop along the U.S. East Coast this weekend. This trough will turn Bill to the north, and also bring high levels of wind shear in the 40 - 65 knot range on Sunday. The models have moved the forecast landfall point of Bill several hundred miles back and forth to the east and west over the past few days, but mostly agree that Cape Cod and Maine will probably miss a direct hit by Bill. However, these regions are still at the edge of Bill's cone of uncertainty, and a direct strike by Bill at Category 1 or 2 strength is a possibility. However, it is more likely that Bill will come ashore over the Canadian provinces of Nova Scotia or Newfoundland. Bill will be weakening rapidly as it makes landfall, and is likely to be a Category 1 hurricane if it hits Nova Scotia, or strong tropical storm if it hits Newfoundland. If Bill follows the official NHC forecast path, winds on Cape Cod and in eastern Maine are likely to remain below tropical storm force (below 39 mph).
Bill's waves
Hurricane Bill is generating huge waves, thanks to its enormous size and major hurricane intensity. Bill passed about 75 miles southwest of Buoy 41044 this morning, and the buoy recorded sustained winds of 67 mph, gusting to 92 mph, with a significant wave height (the height of the average 1/3 highest waves) of 38.8 feet. Output from NOAA's Wavewatch III model suggests that significant wave heights near Bill's center will peak at 50 feet by Saturday. Large swells from Bill will reach Bermuda this afternoon, increasing seas to 5 - 9 feet, according to the Bermuda Weather Service. Seas will increase to 10 - 20 feet on Friday and 20 - 30 feet on Saturday as Bill makes its closest approach to the island.
In the U.S., Bill's swells will reach New York's Long Island on Friday afternoon, and seas will build to 7 - 10' on Saturday and 12 - 16' on Sunday in the near shore waters. By Friday night, Bill's swells will be affecting the entire U.S. East Coast from Florida to Cape Cod. Maximum sea heights in near shore waters over the weekend will be about 7' from Florida to South Carolina, 11 - 14' along the North Carolina coast, 8 - 11' along the mid-Atlantic coast, and 10 - 11' along the coast of Maine. The highest waves along the U.S. coast will occur at Cape Cod, Massachusetts, where waves of 18 - 23' are being forecast by NOAA for Sunday. Bill's high waves are going to cause millions of dollars in erosion damage and create very dangerous rip currents and swimming conditions along the coast.
Hurricane History of Canada
Canada is no stranger to hurricanes, and receives a hit by a Category 1 or stronger hurricane several times per decade, on average. The most recent hurricane strike on Canada occurred in 2008, when Hurricane Kyle struck the southwestern tip of Nova Scotia, just north of Yarmouth. Kyle was rated a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds at landfall, but damage was limited to uprooted trees, scattered power outages, and minor street flooding in Shelburne. The other hurricane to hit Nova Scotia this decade was much more serious. In 2003, Hurricane Juan made landfall at Halifax, Nova Scotia, as a Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds. A record storm surge of 4.9 feet inundated the city's waterfront, resulting in extensive flooding of the Halifax and Dartmouth waterfront properties. A buoy just outside Halifax Harbor measured a significant wave height of 9 meters (30 feet), and maximum wave heights of 20 meters (65 feet). Four people died in the storm. Juan downed a phenomenal number of trees--agriculture specialists estimate that 50 - 100 million trees blew down in Nova Scotia in two hours, with one million downed in Halifax alone. The Canadian Hurricane Center has a nice historical hurricane page with more information and photos.
Figure 3. Close up view of the damage at the Bedford Yacht Club after Hurricane Juan in 2003. Photo: Gary Dunbrack. Image credit: Environment Canada website on Hurricane Juan.
Elsewhere in the tropics
There are no threat areas in the Atlantic worth mentioning today, and no reliable models are calling for tropical cyclone development over the next seven days.
I'll have an update Friday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Starting to look near Aruba? For what?
Oh, Allstar, I totally agree with you and the only other comment I've made today was along those lines -- my comment was to the person who was complaining about the off-topic posts when peoples lives are at risk. :)
Caught a Lot Between Baton Rouge and NOLA between 9am and 2 pm..was Frog Stranglers..
I see what you mean.
Not mad, just stating my observations. Dont you agree that it is strange?
You are quite correct in your observation. I believe, I am guilty of having asked a question which got a number of responses. But rarepearldesign does have a point. I do apologize for digressing and we should stay on topic. It may be a very serious event for some people in the coming days.
It was just an observation and suggestion. I am new here and despite history, canes are not that common in NS. I am not putting my life in this thread, but trying to dig through chatter at an important time is annoying.
Again, no argument needed, just an observation as this was what I thought a blog about Hurricane Bill.
BUFALO BILL!
I'm off to bed. Have a wonderful night! :)
Jeanne wasn't as bad for us in Nassau as Frances, but it was more nerve-wracking in a way because we originally were a point on the direct line between where TD Jeanne came off Hispaniola and where Hurricane Jeanne actually landed in FL..... and had been more or less forecasted to land all along......
Watching The Tropics Closely From Palm City, Fl. Jeebsa
Lol, I'm in Tulsa. NONE of them will impact me. As a hurricane survivor, I just watch, and often stay awake for any landfalling hurricane, to pray, to find information when I can, etc.
Bill
Bill
AOI
Agreed. Even though I haven't been posting as much the past few days or so, I've been thoroughly analyzing the data for Bill once per day. I'm following him closely, and am concerned for Maine and Atlantic Canada.
Pick a track.. any track
Geez...Who let the spider out?
Don't be so sure Tulsa. I lived in Uptown NOLA through Katrina lost a gas grill and some shingles off the roof. TS Ike came through Louisville, winds got stuck in the valley, and Ike dropped a tree on my house! There is no escape.
Yup a real fish.. it will only effect people in Bermuda and Canada.. and we all know they are not really human people, after all they do not live in CONUS.
Then there are those stupid people who work on ships and at sea..
Yup. a real Fish.
OTOH, I do think most people here are not completely insensitive to the feelings of others. Some people aren't blogging anymore because they have assauged their need for information - the storm is no longer likely to affect their community - and now they are getting out of the way of next group of people down the pike. That's actually good in a way. It means there's less "clutter" in the blog so some info can be more easily shared.
Others, like me, continue to come to the blog for the twin reasons of paranoia - it's not dead until it's dissipated over Norway or Iceland - and scientific / intellectual greed. This is OK, too, because it helps the people who NEED the information to ferret it out in a timely fashion.
There will always be those who only interact in the blog when their own personal interests are at stake. For example, we have some excellent bloggers in Honduras, Belize and the Yucatan peninsula who only post here when their area is under threat. I don't see anything wrong with that; in fact, they add to the information base of the blog at a vital time.
Some of the other bloggers who you may feel are "time-wasting" and taking up space with jokes, etc, are highly appreciated by others among their peers because they ease the tension of waiting and remind bloggers that all is not "doom and gloom" worst case scenario stuff. Yes, get prepared, but don't stress too much. Prepare for the worst, but HOPE, too....
I think we ALL could benefit from being a little less critical of others' motives and a little more sensitive to others' feelings.
[puts away the soapbox]
DATA FROM A TWO-AIRCRAFT SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION CONDUCTED BY
NOAA AND U.S. AIR FORCE RESERVE AIRCRAFT THIS EVENING SHOULD BE
ASSIMILATED INTO THE INITIALIZATION OF THE 0000 UTC MODEL RUNS.
Does any one know if this data was in fact assimilated into the models for the 0z model runs? If so, it'd be interesting to see the effect this new data has on the forecast track. :)
Calm down Orca... I said by morning... it could realistically go away from all land... pop a pill.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2004/JEANNE_graphics.shtml
Respecting what Baha just wrote....
I am tired of the expression Fish Storm... people call it a "Fish" if it does not hit the CONUS...as if they are the only ones who matter.
Want to attend my next board meeting. One could only hope your were on their side in a such a situation.
Good Night all and stay out of harms way!! My wife just called me a troll.
lol
-
Websters---
"Fish"
A tropical cyclone in the Atlantic Basin that curves out to sea prior to making actual landfall.
-
If Bill actually makes landfall, he will not be a fish. But all indications are that he won't...with the slight exceptions being a slim chance north of Maine, USA, and the island of Bermuda. Next thing you know, we won't be able to use the term if the possiblilty exsists for the remnants of a fish to strike Europe!
Back to Bill...NHC has been right on with their track so far, so I don't see why Bill would really differ from it now. Luckily on that track, although the storm skirts Nova Scotia, most of the worst weather (by that time on the east side) will hopefully MISS the province. I do have another question though...why does he look like he got punched in the left side of the face? lol :)
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