Bill batters Bermuda; Canada next

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:09 PM GMT on August 22, 2009

Share this Blog
2
+

The winds are dying down on Bermuda, which took a glancing blow from Hurricane Bill last night and this morning. Bill's center passed about 170 miles west of the island, bringing top sustained winds at the Bermuda airport of 46 mph, gusting to 60 mph, at 8:55 pm AST last night. One Bermuda weather station at an elevation of 262 ft recorded a wind gust of 95 mph during a severe thunderstorm last night, resulting in some wind damage that will be surveyed today. Hurricane Bill was undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle last night during its passage west of Bermuda, and the collapse of the inner eyewall meant that the hurricane could not strengthen. An outer rain band has now formed into a new, much larger diameter eyewall. As a result, Bill now has a huge, 50-mile diameter eye. Now that the eyewall replacement cycle is complete, Bill has about a 12-hour window of time to intensify, since the hurricane is crossing the axis of the warm Gulf Stream Current, and wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots.

Around midnight tonight, Bill will lose its warm waters, and SSTs will decline quickly to 19°C (66°F) Sunday morning. By Sunday afternoon, wind shear will rise to 40 knots as Bill encounters the upper-level westerly winds of the large trough of low pressure that is steering the hurricane to the north. These strong upper-level winds will act to turn Bill to the northeast, and shear the hurricane apart. By the time Bill reaches Nova Scotia, Bill should be approaching tropical storm strength, though it will still be generating huge waves.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image of Bill at from Saturday morning 8/22/09.

Bill's waves
Hurricane Bill continues to generate huge waves, thanks to its large size and the long time it spent at major hurricane intensity. This morning, Bill passed 95 miles east of Buoy 41048, which recorded significant wave heights of 27 feet, and sustained winds of 50 mph. Huge waves battered Bermuda yesterday and today, as seen in the wunderphotos taken by denmar, at the bottom of the blog. Output from NOAA's Wavewatch III model suggests that significant wave heights near Bill's center will peak at 40 feet today. Large swells from Bill have reached most of the U.S. East Coast, and wave heights will increase today. Waves at the Nantucket, Massachusetts buoy were up to 9.5 feet this morning, and the Cape Cod Buoy had 8.5' waves. The big waves affecting the U.S. coast will cause very dangerous swimming conditions, and will likely cause several million dollars in beach erosion damage. Though Bill will bring sustained winds near 40 mph and occasional heavy rain showers to southeastern Massachusetts, it is Bill's waves that are the primary threat of the storm to the U.S.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The tropical wave in the middle Atlantic that NHC mentioned in their Tropical Weather Outlook this morning is falling apart, and there are no threat areas in the Atlantic worth mentioning today. Though the models are not calling for any clear-cut development of any tropical cyclones over the next week, we should keep a close eye on the waters between the Bahamas and North Carolina by Wednesday. There could be two triggers for tropical cyclone formation then--the remains of the cold front that will be pushing off the U.S. East Coast this weekend, plus a tropical wave. The Western Caribbean also may be prime for some development late next week, as well as the region off the coast of Africa.

I'll have an update Sunday.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane Bill (denmar)
Hurricane Bill
Hurricane Bill (denmar)
Hurricane Bill

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 71 - 21

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18Blog Index

Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Those images and labels on the NHC site are from SSD, not the NHC. If NHC were to declare an invest, it would then have a number.


thanks :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting presslord:


only if y'all promise there'll be liquor involved...
ther are a few establishments here that could accomodate us I'm sure...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting sebastianflorida:
Don't want to hear about the end of November ends the season; NOTHING ELSE GONNA HAPPEN, WORTH TALKING ABOUT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


maybe you should change you name to Sebasstianflorida.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
68. DDR
Quoting pottery:
The XTRAP is not....oh, never mind then.

Hi pottery,looks like more rain today,i staring at a dark-blue thunderstorm to my east
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting atmoaggie:

Come on down. I dare ya. (We'll meet him at the apex of the Huey, tkeith)
Not on my day off Atmo!!

LOL!

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Orcasystems:



Yup! That says it all.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting atmoaggie:

Come on down. I dare ya. (We'll meet him at the apex of the Huey, tkeith)


only if y'all promise there'll be liquor involved...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The XTRAP is not....oh, never mind then.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SQUAWK:

I have seen some question its validity.


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting presslord:


Don't make me come down there!

Come on down. I dare ya. (We'll meet him at the apex of the Huey, tkeith)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting presslord:


and it's never wrong...


beat me to it..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
60. WAHA
Bill is going to hit Canada.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tazmanian:
this noted TD 11E on the navy site
Pacific has been busy this year.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Orcasystems:


True.. its a well known and talked about model on this page... "Xtrp"


Hey, its the only model thats always right.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting presslord:


and it's never wrong...

I have seen some question its validity.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
this noted TD 11E on the navy site
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Orcasystems:


True.. its a well known and talked about model on this page... "Xtrp"


and it's never wrong...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SomeRandomTexan:


hey Hunker, that really isn't typical though, if I recall correctly. I just thought it was strange that NHC had it labeled "Invest" on their site...


Those images and labels on the NHC site are from SSD, not the NHC. If NHC were to declare an invest, it would then have a number.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Chicklit:
The area west of 50L is always an interesting one to watch this time of year. Although at this time, there is no indication NHC thinks it has a chance of organization, shear has relaxed in the Caribbean.
a href="Link" target="_blank">Link


Thanks.

Quoting hunkerdown:
keep in mind its the NHCs floater over what they had as a "yellow" area, not an actual classified Navy invest.


Gotcha. Thanks.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Ok, off to work.... :(

Blog Update
Reflector site for those at work, which includes Weather456, daily update.


Bill

Bill

AOI
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting presslord:


Don't make me come down there!
whatever it takes to get you to the "Big Easy" Press :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SomeRandomTexan:


hey Hunker, that really isn't typical though, if I recall correctly. I just thought it was strange that NHC had it labeled "Invest" on their site...
again,they are not showing it as a numbered invest (Navy classification) but just an invest, which is by their own doing. They have done this before earlier this season.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Thanks Dr. M; telling us to keep an eye out next week between Bahamas and North Carolina/Western Carribean/Coast of Africa?...That REALLY narrows the seach down.. :)


He skipped over the GOM
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
and post 40.
heheheheh
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Thanks Dr. M; telling us to keep an eye out next week between Bahamas and North Carolina/Western Carribean/Coast of Africa?...That REALLY narrows the search down.. :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting presslord:
Dr. Masters gets a gold star!!!!!!! He specified North Carolina.....Yea him!!!!!!!!!!!!


Obviously he misspoke.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hunkerdown:
keep in mind its the NHCs floater over what they had as a "yellow" area, not an actual classified Navy invest.


hey Hunker, that really isn't typical though, if I recall correctly. I just thought it was strange that NHC had it labeled "Invest" on their site...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
post 37. LOLOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting tkeith:
he probably meant "northern Caorlinas"...


Don't make me come down there!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Dr Jeff Masters.

"Though the models are not calling for any clear-cut development of any tropical cyclones over the next week, we should keep a close eye on the waters between the Bahamas and North Carolina by Wednesday. There could be two triggers for tropical cyclone formation then--the remains of the cold front that will be pushing off the U.S. East Coast this weekend, plus a tropical wave. The Western Caribbean also may be prime for some development late next week, as well as the region off the coast of Africa".

Whoo Hoo we get one week off yeahh...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
post 26, Orca.
The current image shows more than that too.
But all is well. I have sent all the other occupants of this house out to the malls today.
Let it rain.......
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting presslord:
Dr. Masters gets a gold star!!!!!!! He specified North Carolina.....Yea him!!!!!!!!!!!!
he probably meant "northern Caorlinas"...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The area west of 50L is always an interesting one to watch this time of year. Although at this time, there is no indication NHC thinks it has a chance of organization, shear has relaxed in the Caribbean.
shearmap
CATLRainbow
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KimberlyB:


Could be.

Question. Is it within the norm for them to assign a floater to something that's not even showing circulation yet? I was wondering if it's because this wave has a good potential to develop or maybe because there isn't anything more significant to track?
keep in mind its the NHCs floater over what they had as a "yellow" area, not an actual classified Navy invest.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Brillig:


Your own illustration has a line going right through New Hampshire.


True.. its a well known and talked about model on this page... "Xtrp"
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
From looking at flash tracker it sure appears to my blood shot eyes it's still moving west
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Chicklit:

I think it's Sebastianinlet you're thinking about. Anyway, this is interesting, but I'm not spending my Saturday watching Bill.
Bill now has a huge, 50-mile diameter eye. Now that the eyewall replacement cycle is complete, Bill has about a 12-hour window of time to intensify, since the hurricane is crossing the axis of the warm Gulf Stream Current, and wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots.
So heads up for the northeast, still.
The wave at 30-40 does have a spotter on it, but looks like it is restricted to the usual ITCZ stuff at present. Loop


Could be.

Question. Is it within the norm for them to assign a floater to something that's not even showing circulation yet? I was wondering if it's because this wave has a good potential to develop or maybe because there isn't anything more significant to track?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting presslord:


I must be getting old and senile...I thought I remembered him as a responsible blogger...
maybe this is his child using his name...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Orcasystems:


I don't see any tracks shirting west... why are people saying New England?


Your own illustration has a line going right through New Hampshire.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good morning gang!

Once again I love the power vested in myself to press the iggy... After 3 or 4 years I have never used it to much but found it very convenient this year...

Any ideas on why the NHC has a floater over the wave at 35w and labeled "Invest"? Doesn't seem like it is organized enough to me to be an invest.. and they haven't given it a number.. hmmm.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KimberlyB:


Well, then I'm just as old and senile because that was my first thought too. Oh well.....now we know.

Morning E1.

I think it's Sebastianinlet you're thinking about. Anyway, this is interesting, but I'm not spending my Saturday watching Bill.
Bill now has a huge, 50-mile diameter eye. Now that the eyewall replacement cycle is complete, Bill has about a 12-hour window of time to intensify, since the hurricane is crossing the axis of the warm Gulf Stream Current, and wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots.
So heads up for the northeast, still.
The wave at 30-40 does have a spotter on it, but looks like it is restricted to the usual ITCZ stuff at present. Loop
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting crowpoint01:
Big waves starting to reach the outer cape.
Link


Great link. Thanks.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Thanks Dr. Masters.

NHC still hasn't classified 92E as 11E. I wonder if they ever will. They probably won't then the CPHC will issue it. LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Big waves starting to reach the outer cape. Webcam updates every 30 seconds or so.
Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting presslord:


I must be getting old and senile...I thought I remembered him as a responsible blogger...


Well, then I'm just as old and senile because that was my first thought too. Oh well.....now we know.

Morning E1.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting pottery:
Good morning, Press, Orca.
Getting a little dark and stormy down here now.
" it was a dark and stormy night, etc"


Morning Pottery... looking at the weather..and yours sucks..

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


I don't see any tracks shirting west... why are people saying New England?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good morning, Press, Orca.
Getting a little dark and stormy down here now.
" it was a dark and stormy night, etc"
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
morning everyone...anyone been watching that little spin off of the Yuk?? this was the old ULL/anna remains i think...and with the moisture from the low ih the GOM...are any models picking this up?? just wondering...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Orcasystems:


I sure hope you don't end up eating those words...




I must be getting old and senile...I thought I remembered him as a responsible blogger...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 71 - 21

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
45 °F
Overcast