Bill batters Bermuda; Canada next
The winds are dying down on Bermuda, which took a glancing blow from Hurricane Bill last night and this morning. Bill's center passed about 170 miles west of the island, bringing top sustained winds at the Bermuda airport of 46 mph, gusting to 60 mph, at 8:55 pm AST last night. One Bermuda weather station at an elevation of 262 ft recorded a wind gust of 95 mph during a severe thunderstorm last night, resulting in some wind damage that will be surveyed today. Hurricane Bill was undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle last night during its passage west of Bermuda, and the collapse of the inner eyewall meant that the hurricane could not strengthen. An outer rain band has now formed into a new, much larger diameter eyewall. As a result, Bill now has a huge, 50-mile diameter eye. Now that the eyewall replacement cycle is complete, Bill has about a 12-hour window of time to intensify, since the hurricane is crossing the axis of the warm Gulf Stream Current, and wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots.
Around midnight tonight, Bill will lose its warm waters, and SSTs will decline quickly to 19°C (66°F) Sunday morning. By Sunday afternoon, wind shear will rise to 40 knots as Bill encounters the upper-level westerly winds of the large trough of low pressure that is steering the hurricane to the north. These strong upper-level winds will act to turn Bill to the northeast, and shear the hurricane apart. By the time Bill reaches Nova Scotia, Bill should be approaching tropical storm strength, though it will still be generating huge waves.
Figure 1. Visible satellite image of Bill at from Saturday morning 8/22/09.
Bill's waves
Hurricane Bill continues to generate huge waves, thanks to its large size and the long time it spent at major hurricane intensity. This morning, Bill passed 95 miles east of Buoy 41048, which recorded significant wave heights of 27 feet, and sustained winds of 50 mph. Huge waves battered Bermuda yesterday and today, as seen in the wunderphotos taken by denmar, at the bottom of the blog. Output from NOAA's Wavewatch III model suggests that significant wave heights near Bill's center will peak at 40 feet today. Large swells from Bill have reached most of the U.S. East Coast, and wave heights will increase today. Waves at the Nantucket, Massachusetts buoy were up to 9.5 feet this morning, and the Cape Cod Buoy had 8.5' waves. The big waves affecting the U.S. coast will cause very dangerous swimming conditions, and will likely cause several million dollars in beach erosion damage. Though Bill will bring sustained winds near 40 mph and occasional heavy rain showers to southeastern Massachusetts, it is Bill's waves that are the primary threat of the storm to the U.S.
Elsewhere in the tropics
The tropical wave in the middle Atlantic that NHC mentioned in their Tropical Weather Outlook this morning is falling apart, and there are no threat areas in the Atlantic worth mentioning today. Though the models are not calling for any clear-cut development of any tropical cyclones over the next week, we should keep a close eye on the waters between the Bahamas and North Carolina by Wednesday. There could be two triggers for tropical cyclone formation then--the remains of the cold front that will be pushing off the U.S. East Coast this weekend, plus a tropical wave. The Western Caribbean also may be prime for some development late next week, as well as the region off the coast of Africa.
I'll have an update Sunday.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Tropical Cyclone Advisory #4
TROPICAL CYCLONE HILDA (EP112009)
9:00 AM UTC August 23 2009
=============================
At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Hilda (1003 hPa) located at 13.7N 139.3W or 975 east-southeast of Hilo Hawaii has sustained winds of 40 knots with a gust of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 8 knots.
Gale-force Winds
==================
40 NM from the center
Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: - 13.9N 140.6W - 40 knots (Tropical Storm)
24 HRS: - 14.3N 142.2W - 45 knots (Tropical Storm)
48 HRS: - 14.8N 145.7W - 50 knots (Tropical Storm)
72 HRS: - 15.0N 149.0W - 50 knots (Tropical Storm)
so much for so little
South America 00Z ECMWF.....shows nothing significant coming off Africa through September 2nd.
I've got a cool 65 degrees outside.
99 days left is the tropical season.
Coordinates: 40.1N 67.3W (View Map or View Storm Centered Satellite Image)
Location: 218 miles (351 km) to the ESE (119%uFFFD) from New Bedford, MA, USA
Distance Calculator: How far away is this storm from me?
Pressure (MSLP): 962 mb (28.41 inHg | 962 hPa)
Sustained wind speed (1 min. avg.): 70 knots (81 mph | 36 m/s)
Therefore next advisory will have bill lowered to 80 mph!
I hear there are free "hurricane" drinks at the Charleton....!
I've got a few leaves already falling off of a tree in my yard.
Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 64. North northwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm.
8-14 day outlook....for temperatures....that should start cooling off the GOM.....
That is because a prolonged longwave troughing pattern have been set in place in the eastern U.S. The models expect this trough to linger for a while...
I love this weather. Lower humidity....good hair days...
Yes... models appear to be developing the TW @~45W as it gets positioned/assisted by the TUTT currently to its NW which would then move SW and enhance its upper level divergence (diffluence area) so it can develop some in the Bahamas region.
There has been some indications that the trough split which most forecast to happen in the N GOM will be shifting SW in response to a building high... but location/strength that would be a good question.
Location: 42.4°N 65.4°W
Max sustained: 85 mph
Moving: NE at 31 mph
Min pressure: 965 mb
AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS
DISCONTINUED FOR THE COAST OF MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS
OF MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN AUG 23 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
BILL...LOCATED ABOUT 175 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HALIFAX NOVA
SCOTIA.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/PASCH
Station 44011 (LLNR 825) - GEORGES BANK 170 NM East of Hyannis, MA 41.1N 66.6W
I think so. I haven't really followed that other than reading the headlines on the NWFDN website.
ECMWF keeps it offshore and has it follow a path like Bill.
Trough should kick it out.
Station 44024 - Buoy N - Northeast 42.3N 65.9
Yup.
Station 44258 - Halifax Harbour 44.5N 63.4W
Bill and the tropics
Good Morning!
I doubt many in the water today!!!
Surf Forecast
Nantucket MA-
including the beaches of...Nantucket
336 am EDT sun Aug 23 2009
.Today...
South Coast rip current risk....high.
East Coast rip current risk.....High.
South Coast surf....8 to 12 feet.
East Coast surf.....7 to 11 feet.
Swell...............southeast swell 8 to 9 feet.
Period..............11 seconds.
South Coast water...67 degrees.
East Coast water....66 degrees.
Sky/weather.........Cloudy. A chance of showers until 2 PM.
Max temperature.....Around 73.
Beach winds.........West winds around 14 mph.
UVI index...........8 - very high.
Lightning threat....very infrequent lightning expected.
A high risk of rip currents means dangerous and potentially life
threatening conditions exist for all people entering the surf.
.Tonight...Cloudy. A slight chance of showers. Lows in the upper 60s.
South winds around 9 mph.
.Monday...Mostly sunny. A slight chance of showers. Highs in the
lower 70s. West winds around 10 mph.
.Monday night...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 60s. West winds around
9 mph.
Location storm total time/date comments
rainfall of
(inches) measurement
Massachusetts
... Bristol County...
Acushnet 2.91 615 am 8/23 spotter
New Bedford 2.45 625 am 8/23 ASOS since midnight
... Plymouth County...
Kingston 3.74 700 am 8/23 cocorahs
Pembroke 3.09 415 am 8/23 amateur radio
Marshfield 2.78 453 am 8/23 amateur radio
Scituate 2.76 415 am 8/23 amateur radio
Halifax 2.52 654 am 8/23 spotter
Plus one thought on the survey. This blog had recommendations from the good Dr. Masters for people to get out of New Orleans a day ahead of the NHC.
While they do awfully good work down at NHC, professionals checking that work and trying to understand these bad boys a bit better is useful too.
No. But a surfer should be billed for any search/rescue efforts expended for him/her.
Sounds kind of unconstitutional.
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne Florida
415 am EDT sun Aug 23 2009
Wed-Sat...a deep east/NE flow will exist over the area through much of
the middle to late week as an easterly wave moves from the central
Atlantic into the Bahamas. Drier and more subsident air will exist
on the west side of this wave and over our area which will provide
for slightly below normal probability of precipitation around 30% on Wednesday and Thursday. Models
then have the wave developing into a closed low east of the Florida
Peninsula during Friday and then lift it north over the western
Atlantic. This will allow for some moisture return from the south
with rain chances increasing to more normal values Sat. No major
temperature changes expected with values remaining near normal.
NHC and the models did a great job on Bill, but again, all of the models were close as compared to some other cane models we have seen that look like a bowl of spaghetti.
84 already this morning with a heat index of 91. Later its supposed to be 92 with 102heat index.. I guess beach or pool day for me.. Gotta love Miami beach weather...
The Onion never ceases to dig deep and find the pressing issues of the day and beyond. Humanity is blessed to have them.
LOL to the highest degree
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