New African disturbance 96L likely to develop
A tropical wave (96L) that emerged off the coast of Africa yesterday has organized rather quickly, and will likely become a tropical depression by Tuesday night. Satellite imagery from the European satellite shows a well-organized circulation, but not enough heavy thunderstorm activity near the center of circulation to be considered a tropical depression. The storm is far enough south that the dry air of the Saharan Air Layer is not a major impediment to development. Wind shear is moderate, 10 - 15 knots, and ocean temperatures are 1 - 2°C above the threshold needed for tropical cyclone formation.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 96L, off the coast of Africa. The remains of disturbance 95L, which are under 30 - 40 knots of wind shear, can be seen at upper left.
The forecast for 96L
Most of the models develop 96L, and the chances are that this disturbance will become Tropical Storm Fred later this week. The system will initially move west-northwest, but by Thursday, a strong trough of low pressure passing to 96L's north will pull the storm to the northwest, and may be capable of fully recurving the storm to the northeast. However, most of the models foresee that 96L will not move far enough north for this to happen, and that the storm will have to wait for the next trough of low pressure. With the steering pattern for this year continuing to feature plenty of deep troughs of low pressure moving off the U.S. East Coast, the odds of 96L making it all the way across the Atlantic to threaten land areas appear low. Still, much that is unexpected can and does happen in the world of tropical meteorology, and 96L bears watching.
North Carolina low
An area of concentrated thunderstorms has developed off the North Carolina coast in association with the remains of an old cold front. This system is under about 20 - 30 knots of shear, and is not tropical. However, it will bring heavy rain to eastern North Carolina today and Tuesday, as the storm slides north-northeastward along the coast.
I'll have an update Tuesday.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Dig WHAT up?!?!?! I know what I make...
right on
With those numbers, I'm expecting to see a renumbering issued very soon.
AL 96 2009090712 03 OFCL 12 121N 245W 35
AL 96 2009090712 03 OFCL 24 122N 268W 40
AL 96 2009090712 03 OFCL 36 129N 290W 45
AL 96 2009090712 03 OFCL 48 137N 310W 55
AL 96 2009090712 03 OFCL 48 137N 310W 55
AL 96 2009090712 03 OFCL 72 163N 335W 55
AL 96 2009090712 03 OFCL 72 163N 335W 55
AL 96 2009090712 03 OFCL 96 185N 345W 50
AL 96 2009090712 03 OFCL 120 205N 345W 45
Wow, the progression of topics around here is amazing. The salary I make as an E-3 in the navy isn't that much, but the benefits and low overhead more than make up for it. I'm not sure what Avila makes, but the $2.5 million figure sounds like worth to me.
The GOM looks like it's on fire!!!
AGXX40 KNHC 071638
MIMATS
MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1230 PM EDT MON SEP 07 2009
MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK E-W TROUGH OVER THE NW COASTAL PLAINS WILL DISSIPATE
TONIGHT. A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDS NNE TO SSW ACROSS THE CENTRAL
WATERS. THE RESULT IS LIGHT WINDS ACROSS ALL ZONES. A WEAK
INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN BAHAMAS IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT W
THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS TONIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT...THEN
CONTINUE NW REACHING THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS FRI. EXPECT THE
LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING INCREASE IN WINDS ALONG THE NW
YUCATAN COAST. INTENSE CONVECTION ENHANCED OVER THE SW GULF HAS
INDUCED A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH AND ITS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
A FEW DAYS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A WEAK LOW PRES DEVELOPING
ALONG THE TROUGH.
CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC...
ELY TRADES IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
AND ELY 10-15 KT. WEAKENING LOW PRES AT 17N51W IS STILL EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN INTO A OPEN TROPICAL WAVE TONIGHT WITH THE WAVE
ENTERING THE E CARIBBEAN LATE TUE NIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN WED THROUGH FRI. ANOTHER LOW PRES IN THE FAR E ATLC IS
EXPECTED TO RECURVE NW ALONG 34W-35W WED AND THU.
SW N ATLC...
A FEW WEAK TROUGHS ARE ANALYZED ACROSS THE AREA. ONE TROUGH
EXTENDING N-S ALONG 79W IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT E TO ALONG 77W WED
AND THU AND DISSIPATE BY FRI. AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY W THROUGH THE
FLORIDA STRAITS TONIGHT THROUGH WED. AS THE TROUGHS MOVE W OF
AREA THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO PSN FROM BERMUDA TO CENTRAL FL WITH
SE-S 10-15 KT FLOW N OF 25N AND E-SE 10-15 KT WINDS S OF 25N.
WARNINGS
ATLC...
.NONE.
CARIBBEAN...
.NONE.
GULF OF MEXICO...
.NONE
$$
FORECASTER NELSON
Honestly I think he is trying to be overly cordial to try and get someone else suspended. In other words I think he's trying to bait some of the bloggers on here.
And the worst part is he's using spell check now.
Not a bit. One reason I DON'T have him on ignore yet is the occasional humor factor. How's Labor Day treatin' ya Press?
I agree with u
plus d-min is not weakening it
Flagged.
yes is it keeps this up 96L will be TD 7 really soon
you are the one antagonizing people, oh and for your little curse word you put there in that last post, I hope they give you a permanent ban.
Tropical wave "Exposed" trying to make it
You make rope.
lol
the 00Z had a hurricane hitting the Leewards on September 20 2009, the anniversary of Georges. Also this month has the same calender date as September 1998 with the night of 20 September the faithful Sunday night that Georges struck.
Lighten up dude.
000
WHXX01 KWBC 071918
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1918 UTC MON SEP 7 2009
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE SEVEN (AL072009) 20090907 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090907 1800 090908 0600 090908 1800 090909 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.4N 23.9W 13.0N 26.8W 13.7N 30.3W 14.1N 34.0W
BAMD 12.4N 23.9W 12.9N 26.5W 13.7N 28.9W 14.7N 31.1W
BAMM 12.4N 23.9W 13.0N 26.5W 13.8N 29.2W 14.7N 31.9W
LBAR 12.4N 23.9W 12.8N 26.5W 13.6N 29.3W 14.4N 31.9W
SHIP 30KTS 35KTS 42KTS 50KTS
DSHP 30KTS 35KTS 42KTS 50KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090909 1800 090910 1800 090911 1800 090912 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.3N 37.3W 14.3N 40.2W 13.3N 38.6W 12.0N 36.1W
BAMD 15.9N 33.2W 19.2N 35.9W 22.4N 35.8W 24.6N 36.0W
BAMM 15.6N 34.4W 17.6N 37.3W 18.8N 37.4W 19.6N 37.2W
LBAR 15.4N 34.3W 17.9N 37.0W 22.5N 37.5W 26.4N 36.9W
SHIP 55KTS 63KTS 58KTS 48KTS
DSHP 55KTS 63KTS 58KTS 48KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.4N LONCUR = 23.9W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 15KT
LATM12 = 11.9N LONM12 = 20.9W DIRM12 = 277DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 11.8N LONM24 = 17.8W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 170NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
Viewing: 501 - 551
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