New African disturbance 96L likely to develop
A tropical wave (96L) that emerged off the coast of Africa yesterday has organized rather quickly, and will likely become a tropical depression by Tuesday night. Satellite imagery from the European satellite shows a well-organized circulation, but not enough heavy thunderstorm activity near the center of circulation to be considered a tropical depression. The storm is far enough south that the dry air of the Saharan Air Layer is not a major impediment to development. Wind shear is moderate, 10 - 15 knots, and ocean temperatures are 1 - 2°C above the threshold needed for tropical cyclone formation.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 96L, off the coast of Africa. The remains of disturbance 95L, which are under 30 - 40 knots of wind shear, can be seen at upper left.
The forecast for 96L
Most of the models develop 96L, and the chances are that this disturbance will become Tropical Storm Fred later this week. The system will initially move west-northwest, but by Thursday, a strong trough of low pressure passing to 96L's north will pull the storm to the northwest, and may be capable of fully recurving the storm to the northeast. However, most of the models foresee that 96L will not move far enough north for this to happen, and that the storm will have to wait for the next trough of low pressure. With the steering pattern for this year continuing to feature plenty of deep troughs of low pressure moving off the U.S. East Coast, the odds of 96L making it all the way across the Atlantic to threaten land areas appear low. Still, much that is unexpected can and does happen in the world of tropical meteorology, and 96L bears watching.
North Carolina low
An area of concentrated thunderstorms has developed off the North Carolina coast in association with the remains of an old cold front. This system is under about 20 - 30 knots of shear, and is not tropical. However, it will bring heavy rain to eastern North Carolina today and Tuesday, as the storm slides north-northeastward along the coast.
I'll have an update Tuesday.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Kind of like, refinishing furniture - you gotta "restart" - which makes sense since it was already done once.
AOI
AOI
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Updated with some of the graphics on the 850MB Relative Vorticity Overlay
the same time I was accuse of wanting it to go over the islands becuz of I wanted rain. I did wanted the rain, but that was not the basis of my forecast (a saw high building in) - the rain was just an added benefit.
Yes.
It appears 96L is gradually organizing, but is lacking some strong convection....as soon as it gets that, I would expect a Tropical Depression to be classified.
yup I remember that, and you were right lol
100% NO CHANCE yet.....maybe in 3-4 days. There is nothing at any levels on Vorticity and Shear is 30-40kts......Nothing there but divergence.
It should begin to develop some stronger convection later today or early tonight. I Tropical depression is likely by tomorrow.
If you look at 15E over in the EPAC I'd say 96L is pretty close convectively to being a TD. If SAB was more inline with the TAFB we wouldve already had it.
So if you want to report someone, do you have to port them first?
Same as i did which is when IKE started his RECURVE or CURVE idea as usual.
Um, where is 30-40kts cause all I see is 20kts down over this blob...there is an anticyclone south of it over Mexico. Not saying its developing or is a threat to, just saying it isn't 30-40kts.
yep
Hehe... since report is the entire word. You would be Re-Reporting them... Or as presslord would say. Reeeeeeeeeeported.
llc got displaced, thats the thunderstorm activity that remains?
true but this is how I interpret it
recurve - become curved backward or downward
so a curve would be shifting wnw to nw
but then re-curve is to curve that track backwards that is nw to ne
I have come to the conclusion most weather affecanidos come complete with attitudes also!!
??????
It is fine at red.
um why?
To curve (something) backward or downward or become curved backward or downward.
So for all intensive purposes..."recurve doesn't neccesarily mean "to curve again". Think of it in term or a "Recurve Bow".....Like a bow and arrow...it refers to the shape.
No, why would you move it to red? The other agency says its already a TD, just not SAB.
I never disagreed with you. It doesn't make logical sense, but it is the definition of recurve. (I think I said it is one of the idiosyncrasies of the English Language.)
I can think of another example between curve and recurve, but this is a family blog so I digress.
Yellow and Orange is 30-40kts just to the North and 20-30kts in its area to be more accurate........still nothing even close to forming.......its just divergence now.....Maybe in 3-4 days!
yeah you're right i got it ;)
to recurve is to curve. poetic
They do on here. All I was doing was emphasizing Dr. Masters use of REcurve. Then I was accused of leaving off part of what he was saying.
That would be completely stupid if they did that. It needs to fire one good round of thunderstorms then as soon as that happens it would be classified.
LOL. good one.
what is that icon, a face twitch? LOL
did you know that 56.7% of all statistics are made up on the spot?
I would actually keep raise the percentage for your 3rd and 4th ones to close to 15% for each lol
Hey StormW.....good Labor Day my friend.
Are the clay-colored lines underneath the anticyclone that i've been hearing about over 96L?
Did you know that until recently 50% of all people that got divorced were men.
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