Second warmest September on record for the globe
The globe recorded its second warmest September since record keeping began in 1880, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. The combined global land and ocean temperature anomaly was 0.62°C (1.12°F), falling only 0.04°C (0.07°F) short of tying the record set in 2005. NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies also rated September 2009 as the 2nd warmest September on record, falling 0.02°C short of the record set in 2005. It was the 33rd consecutive September with a global temperature above the 20th century average. NOAA rated the year-to-date period, January - September 2009, as the sixth warmest such period on record. The September satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the 2nd warmest on record, behind 1998. Global ocean Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies, however, cooled a bit, and were the 5th warmest on record. Global SSTs were the warmest on record during the Northern Hemisphere summer, June - August.
Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for September 2009. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.
A warm September for the U.S., and record heat in the West
For the contiguous U.S., the average September temperature was 1.0°F above average, making it the 32nd warmest September in the 115-year record, according to the National Climatic Data Center. The West had is warmest September on record, with Nevada and California recording their warmest September, and six other western states observing a top-ten warmest September--Montana (3rd warmest), North Dakota (3rd), Idaho (4th), Utah (5th), Minnesota (6th), and Oregon (8th). However, a combination a slow-moving storm system during the beginning of the month and two surface cold fronts during the last week resulted in much below normal temperature averages in Kansas (10th coolest) and Oklahoma (11th coolest). The year-to-date (January - September) period was the 29th warmest such period for the contiguous U.S.
U.S. precipitation near average
U.S. precipitation in September was exactly average. Statewide-averaged rainfall was among the ten wettest for four southern states (Arkansas, 2nd wettest; Tennessee (5th), Mississippi (6th), and Alabama (6th)). Maine and Wisconsin each experienced their fourth driest September and both New Hampshire and Michigan had their seventh driest such periods.
U.S. drought
At the end of September, 15% of the contiguous United States was in moderate-to-exceptional drought. This is a drop from the 19% figure observed at the beginning of the year. Exceptional drought (the worst category of drought) was seen in South to Central Texas, though the area covered by exceptional drought shrank by 50% over the past month, thanks to much-needed rains over the region.
U.S. fire activity
During September, 5,535 fires burned approximately 378,523 acres, each of which was below the 2000 - 2009 average for the month. The acreage lost to wildfire was roughly half of the 2000 - 2009 average. For the year to date (January.September), 70,217 fires was slightly above the 10-year average, while acreage burned was slightly less than average.
Weak El Niño conditions continue
El Niño conditions continue over the tropical Eastern Pacific. Ocean temperatures in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", were 0.3°C above the threshold for a weak El Niño, according to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center is maintaining an El Niño Advisory. Current conditions and model forecasts favor the continued development of a weak-to-moderate strength El Niño event into the Northern Hemisphere Fall 2009, with the likelihood of at least a moderate strength El Niño (3-month Niño-3.4 SST index of +1.0°C or greater) during the Northern Hemisphere Winter 2009-10.
September sea ice extent in the Arctic 3rd lowest on record
September 2009 Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent was the 3rd lowest since satellite measurements began in 1979, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). Only 2007 and 2008 saw lower Arctic sea ice extent. Both the Northwest Passage and Northeast Passage melted free, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. This marks the second consecutive year--and the second time in recorded history--both of these Arctic shipping routes have melted free. The past five years have had the five lowest Arctic ice extents on record. In their 2009 report on this year's Arctic sea ice minimum, NSIDC Director and Senior Scientist Mark Serreze said, "It's nice to see a little recovery over the past couple years, but there's no reason to think that we're headed back to conditions seen back in the 1970s. We still expect to see ice-free summers sometime in the next few decades". Only 19% of the ice cover this summer in the Arctic was over 2 years old, the least in the satellite record, and far below the 1981 - 2000 average of 52%. NSIDC Scientist Walt Meier said, "We've preserved a fair amount of first-year ice and second-year ice after this summer compared to the past couple of years. If this ice remains in the Arctic through the winter, it will thicken, which gives some hope of stabilizing the ice cover over the next few years. However, the ice is still much younger and thinner than it was in the 1980s, leaving it vulnerable to melt during the summer". Earlier this summer, NASA researcher Ron Kwok and colleagues from the University of Washington in Seattle published satellite data showing that Arctic ice thickness declined by 0.68 meters (2.2 feet) between 2004 and 2008. The overall mean winter thickness was 3.64 meters in 1980, and 1.89 meters during the winter of 2007 - 2008, a massive decrease of 48%.
References
Kwok, R., and D. A. Rothrock. 2009. Decline in Arctic sea ice thickness from submarine and ICESat records: 1958.2008, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L15501, doi:10.1029/2009GL039035.
Figure 2. Category 1 Typhoon Lupit in the Philippine Sea at 04:45 UTC October 16, 2009. Image credit: NASA MODIS Rapid Response System.
Tropical update
In the Atlantic, there are no threat areas to discuss, and none of the computer models is calling for tropical storm formation over the next week.
There are two potential serious threats in the Pacific. Tropical Storm Rick off the Pacific coast of Mexico is expected to recurve to the north and threaten Baja late next week. While Rick is expected to become a major hurricane early next week, the storm should weaken significantly before any potential landfall in Mexico, due to high wind shear and cooler ocean temperatures the storm will find as it approaches Baja.
More seriously, Typhoon Lupit in the Western Pacific is expected to intensify into a Category 4 typhoon and threaten the northern Philippines by Tuesday. Last week, Super Typhoon Parma crossed over the northern Philippines three times, dumping over twenty inches of rain in many locations. Over 300 people died in the resulting flash floods and landslides. A visit by Typhoon Lupit could create a major catastrophe in the northern Philippines as the storm dumps another 1 - 2 feet of rain on the already saturated soils.
My next post will be Sunday or Monday.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Actually, with the 'individualism' comment, I was going for that the Earth used to be a limitless canvas upon which we could do anything, but now; far, far, far before us physically being everywhere, we can't do that anymore. And for a silly little trace gas like carbon dioxide, this would be our first effect where the biosphere is too small (well, that and CFCs, too, but that problem is under control) I want power, too! Sadly, we can't do fun things with machine guns and trebuchets around here. I'd be all like ahahaha batatatatatatatatatatata ta ta ta into a rock circle on the ground in the desert. Hold two SAWs bracketing my center of gravity so as to use them as an impractical transportation device. Damn, that gif of the machine gun shooting cat is funny, have you seen it? Thank you, thank you, I'll be here all night.
No storms in the Atlantic..still...(very bored)
Well two Pacific cyclones are active (Typhoon Lupit and Hurricane Rick) and wow, Hurricane Rick is 20E! Unbelievable, and there might be a third depression in the CPAC.
Also, come visit my blog and answer my (multiple-choice) questions! It is due October 30 (KST), so about Oct 29-30 EDT
Tropical Cyclone Warning #7
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE RICK (EP202009)
9:00 AM UTC October 17 2009
=======================================
Subject: Interest In Southwestern Mexico and Baja California Should Monitor The Progress of Hurricane "Rick"
At 6:00 AM UTC, Hurricane Rick (960 hPa) located at 13.9N 102.0W or 220 NM southwest of Acapulco, Mexico has sustained winds of 100 knots with gusts of 120 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west-northwest at 10 knots
Hurricane Force Winds
======================
20 NM from the center
Gale/Storm Force Winds
================
75 NM from the center
Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 14.3N 103.7W - 110 knots (SSHS-3 Cyclone)
24 HRS: 14.9N 106.1W - 120 knots (SSHS-4 Cyclone)
48 HRS: 16.5N 110.4W - 120 knots (SSHS-4 Cyclone)
72 HRS: 18.4N 112.7W - 110 knots (SSHS-3 Cyclone)
They adjust for the urban heat island effect. The temperature record from ships does not even need adjusting for urban heat island effect, is longer than the satellite record, and agrees with the land record after adjusting for things like placement and UHI. If I read correctly it appears that the satellite record is not perfect yet, but much better than before (like the late 90s) They figured out the kinks now.
It doesn't look like much if you don't want to believe (the hockey stick) but this is unusually warm, and fast for an interglacial. And if you don't want to believe just wait a few decades, it'll be more obvious, then.
I'm out.
Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert (0930z 17OCT)
==========================================
An area of convection (93W) located at 13.6N 112.1E or 315 NM east-southeast of Hue, Vietnam. Recent animated multispectral imagery reveals that the low level circulation center has become fully exposed and is tracking northward into the northern portion of the South China Sea. An area of deep convection has persisted on the western half of the low level circulation center and is currently sheared approximately 60 NM from the center. However, as the low level circulation center tracks northward, it is moving into a lower vertical wind shear environment. If vertical wind shear continues to decrease, the potential for further development will increase. Upper level analysis indicates the system remains in a favorable diffluent region of the subtropical ridge. The poleward outflow channel is being enhanced by the mid-latitude trough located to the northeast. The westerly flow around the southern portion of the subtropical ridge is the leading factor in the high vertical wind shear, but as the low level circulation center moves northward that flow will likely enhance the equatorward outflow for the low level circulation center as vertical wind shear decreases.
Maximum sustained winds near the center is 17-22 knots with a minimum sea level pressure of 1004 MB.
** WTPQ20 BABJ 170600 ***
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TD INITIAL TIME 170600 UTC
00HR 14.1N 112.3E 1002HPA 14M/S (25 kts)
P12HR ALMOST STATIONARY
P+24HR 14.6N 110.5E 999HPA 16M/S= (30 kts)
49.6 degrees outside right now.
Beaumont, Texas (Airport)
Updated: 8 min 24 sec ago
Clear
57 °F
Clear
Humidity: 83%
Dew Point: 52 °F
Wind: 9 mph from the North
I'll enjoy it while I can. :)
WARMING TREND BEGINS MONDAY...
Oh well.
TROUGH CUTS OFF OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
BOTH THE OOZ ECMWF AND GFS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN THE OVER
PATTERN...HOWEVER THE ONE THING THAT MAKES THIS A CHALLENGE THIS
FAR OUT IS HOW THE TROUGH WILL ABSORBED THE ENERGY AND MOISTURE
FROM HURRICANE RICK.
Hmmmm? That didn't work out too well last time...
October 24-28, 1994. Southeast and east Texas. The remnants of Pacific Hurricane Rosa dropped between 20 and 40 inches of rain. Hardest hit was Liberty County and northeast Harris County. 10 deaths and $750 million in damage.
Hey Ike? I like! nice temps right now.
Thanks!
Rick's got an eye!
Took my poodle out for some relief...it's cold w/a nice breeze blowing. Wind chill probably in the 30's.
I notice the water temp at Pensacola has dropped from 82 to 75.6 in one day. Must be shallow water.
System is a beast. The same wave that couldn't do anything in the Atlantic.
It was the wave that went along the northern South America coast.
92L.
LOCATION...14.0N 102.3W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
232 AM EDT SAT OCT 17 2009
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY - MONDAY) THE FORECAST FOCUS IS GOING TO
REMAIN ON TEMPERATURES IN THE NEXT SEVERAL PERIODS AS WE SHIFT
FROM ONE EXTREME TO THE OTHER...AND NOW COULD THREATEN RECORD LOWS
FOR SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY MORNING.
Thanks thought so but wasn't sure. The Altlantic & Caribbean has been very hostile this Season.
Rick supposta head back east after a few days? Now this could be interesting.
Yeah, it has been.
Down to 48.9 here.
Geographic coordinates:16.332S,171.963W
Magnitude:5.9 MwDepth:10 km
Universal Time (UTC):17 Oct 2009 10:45:27
Time near the Epicenter:16 Oct 2009 23:45:27
Local standard time in your area: 17 Oct 2009 10:45:27
Location with respect to nearby cities:
267 km (166 miles) SSW (210 degrees) of PAGO PAGO, American Samoa
283 km (176 miles) S (185 degrees) of APIA, Samoa
335 km (208 miles) NE (40 degrees) of Neiafu, Tonga
2385 km (1482 miles) W (270 degrees) of PAPEETE, Tahiti, French Polynesia
(1-3inches of snow by Sunday AM above 3,500FT)
( Started yesterday evening with freezing drizzle above 4,500 FT)
I had to pull everything out of the garden Wednesday. Looking forward to some snow though.
This Rick is pretty impressive. I had a feeling that as soon as 92L got into the EPac it would make something of itself, but I wasn't expecting anything this well-defined and symmetrical....
The bad thing about Rick intensifying so much is that it's more likely to come in to Baha as a hurricane...... not good at all.
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202009
315 AM PDT SAT OCT 17 2009
THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED TO UPDATE THE CURRENT AND
FORECAST INTENSITY OF RICK...WHICH CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AT A
REMARKABLE PACE. SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
BASED ON THE LATEST INFRARED IMAGERY ARE AT LEAST 6.0...AND THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 115 KT BASED ON THESE DATA. FURTHER
STRENGTHENING SEEMS LIKELY GIVEN THE IDEAL ENVIRONMENT...AND THE
INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SHARPLY UPWARD. THE NEW
OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A PEAK NEAR CATEGORY 5 STATUS IN 24 HOURS
FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL WEAKENING. INNER CORE DYNAMICS MAY ALSO
CAUSE FLUCTUATIONS IN THE INTENSITY OF THE CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO...AND THESE FLUCTUATIONS ARE DIFFICULT TO FORECAST. AT
48 HOURS AND BEYOND...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE INITIAL AND FORECAST WIND RADII HAVE ALSO
BEEN ADJUSTED THROUGH 36 HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MODIFICATIONS TO
THE INITIAL AND FORECAST INTENSITY.
Is that meant to be funny Mr. Ike?
Yes - and at the current rate of intensifying (30kt in an hour)
it will be at about 200kt tommorow
Their flip-flopping on where it forms and goes. Latest ECMWF shows a low in the SE GOM on the 10 day frame.
Latest GFS shows a 1008 mb low in the northern GOM in 240 hours. Looks non-tropical.
I don't see any models(through the next 10 days), showing anything as significant as what they were showing with Rick a few days ago.
I think if there's another named system in the Atlantic, it will be like 6 of the 8 other named systems this year. Fighting with the elements.
No.
Now THIS 48-hour forecast from TAFB is interesting to me for 2 reasons.... 1) the tail of that "cold front" is way down against the Colombian coast, right into that area where that regularly occurring low pressure can be found. 2) It crosses the Bahamas in the vicinity of Long Island and Exuma, meaning if there is any cold air relief to be had, we should have some here by tomorrow night or Monday... wonderful thought.
Rick undergoing rapid intensification
000
WTPZ45 KNHC 171011
TCDEP5
HURRICANE RICK SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202009
315 AM PDT SAT OCT 17 2009
THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED TO UPDATE THE CURRENT AND FORECAST INTENSITY OF RICK...WHICH CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AT A REMARKABLE PACE. SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES BASED ON THE LATEST INFRARED IMAGERY ARE AT LEAST 6.0...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 115 KT BASED ON THESE DATA.
FURTHER STRENGTHENING SEEMS LIKELY GIVEN THE IDEAL ENVIRONMENT...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SHARPLY UPWARD. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A PEAK NEAR CATEGORY 5 STATUS IN 24 HOURS FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL WEAKENING. INNER CORE DYNAMICS MAY ALSO CAUSE FLUCTUATIONS IN THE INTENSITY OF THE CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND THESE FLUCTUATIONS ARE DIFFICULT TO FORECAST.
Good morning, Baha.
I hope it gets there. Lovely morning here with the windows open finally...60 now and forecast to be sunny and in the mid 70's today.
West-Pac beast....
off to read for school
have a great day everyone
I feel sorry for them...a living hell.
I have to run, but will check in later...
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