Second warmest September on record for the globe

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:49 PM GMT on October 16, 2009

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The globe recorded its second warmest September since record keeping began in 1880, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. The combined global land and ocean temperature anomaly was 0.62°C (1.12°F), falling only 0.04°C (0.07°F) short of tying the record set in 2005. NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies also rated September 2009 as the 2nd warmest September on record, falling 0.02°C short of the record set in 2005. It was the 33rd consecutive September with a global temperature above the 20th century average. NOAA rated the year-to-date period, January - September 2009, as the sixth warmest such period on record. The September satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the 2nd warmest on record, behind 1998. Global ocean Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies, however, cooled a bit, and were the 5th warmest on record. Global SSTs were the warmest on record during the Northern Hemisphere summer, June - August.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for September 2009. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.

A warm September for the U.S., and record heat in the West
For the contiguous U.S., the average September temperature was 1.0°F above average, making it the 32nd warmest September in the 115-year record, according to the National Climatic Data Center. The West had is warmest September on record, with Nevada and California recording their warmest September, and six other western states observing a top-ten warmest September--Montana (3rd warmest), North Dakota (3rd), Idaho (4th), Utah (5th), Minnesota (6th), and Oregon (8th). However, a combination a slow-moving storm system during the beginning of the month and two surface cold fronts during the last week resulted in much below normal temperature averages in Kansas (10th coolest) and Oklahoma (11th coolest). The year-to-date (January - September) period was the 29th warmest such period for the contiguous U.S.

U.S. precipitation near average
U.S. precipitation in September was exactly average. Statewide-averaged rainfall was among the ten wettest for four southern states (Arkansas, 2nd wettest; Tennessee (5th), Mississippi (6th), and Alabama (6th)). Maine and Wisconsin each experienced their fourth driest September and both New Hampshire and Michigan had their seventh driest such periods.

U.S. drought
At the end of September, 15% of the contiguous United States was in moderate-to-exceptional drought. This is a drop from the 19% figure observed at the beginning of the year. Exceptional drought (the worst category of drought) was seen in South to Central Texas, though the area covered by exceptional drought shrank by 50% over the past month, thanks to much-needed rains over the region.

U.S. fire activity
During September, 5,535 fires burned approximately 378,523 acres, each of which was below the 2000 - 2009 average for the month. The acreage lost to wildfire was roughly half of the 2000 - 2009 average. For the year to date (January.September), 70,217 fires was slightly above the 10-year average, while acreage burned was slightly less than average.

Weak El Niño conditions continue
El Niño conditions continue over the tropical Eastern Pacific. Ocean temperatures in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", were 0.3°C above the threshold for a weak El Niño, according to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center is maintaining an El Niño Advisory. Current conditions and model forecasts favor the continued development of a weak-to-moderate strength El Niño event into the Northern Hemisphere Fall 2009, with the likelihood of at least a moderate strength El Niño (3-month Niño-3.4 SST index of +1.0°C or greater) during the Northern Hemisphere Winter 2009-10.

September sea ice extent in the Arctic 3rd lowest on record
September 2009 Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent was the 3rd lowest since satellite measurements began in 1979, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). Only 2007 and 2008 saw lower Arctic sea ice extent. Both the Northwest Passage and Northeast Passage melted free, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. This marks the second consecutive year--and the second time in recorded history--both of these Arctic shipping routes have melted free. The past five years have had the five lowest Arctic ice extents on record. In their 2009 report on this year's Arctic sea ice minimum, NSIDC Director and Senior Scientist Mark Serreze said, "It's nice to see a little recovery over the past couple years, but there's no reason to think that we're headed back to conditions seen back in the 1970s. We still expect to see ice-free summers sometime in the next few decades". Only 19% of the ice cover this summer in the Arctic was over 2 years old, the least in the satellite record, and far below the 1981 - 2000 average of 52%. NSIDC Scientist Walt Meier said, "We've preserved a fair amount of first-year ice and second-year ice after this summer compared to the past couple of years. If this ice remains in the Arctic through the winter, it will thicken, which gives some hope of stabilizing the ice cover over the next few years. However, the ice is still much younger and thinner than it was in the 1980s, leaving it vulnerable to melt during the summer". Earlier this summer, NASA researcher Ron Kwok and colleagues from the University of Washington in Seattle published satellite data showing that Arctic ice thickness declined by 0.68 meters (2.2 feet) between 2004 and 2008. The overall mean winter thickness was 3.64 meters in 1980, and 1.89 meters during the winter of 2007 - 2008, a massive decrease of 48%.

References
Kwok, R., and D. A. Rothrock. 2009. Decline in Arctic sea ice thickness from submarine and ICESat records: 1958.2008, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L15501, doi:10.1029/2009GL039035.


Figure 2. Category 1 Typhoon Lupit in the Philippine Sea at 04:45 UTC October 16, 2009. Image credit: NASA MODIS Rapid Response System.

Tropical update
In the Atlantic, there are no threat areas to discuss, and none of the computer models is calling for tropical storm formation over the next week.

There are two potential serious threats in the Pacific. Tropical Storm Rick off the Pacific coast of Mexico is expected to recurve to the north and threaten Baja late next week. While Rick is expected to become a major hurricane early next week, the storm should weaken significantly before any potential landfall in Mexico, due to high wind shear and cooler ocean temperatures the storm will find as it approaches Baja.

More seriously, Typhoon Lupit in the Western Pacific is expected to intensify into a Category 4 typhoon and threaten the northern Philippines by Tuesday. Last week, Super Typhoon Parma crossed over the northern Philippines three times, dumping over twenty inches of rain in many locations. Over 300 people died in the resulting flash floods and landslides. A visit by Typhoon Lupit could create a major catastrophe in the northern Philippines as the storm dumps another 1 - 2 feet of rain on the already saturated soils.

My next post will be Sunday or Monday.

Jeff Masters

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Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 8123
off this main blog, the other blogs are full of grandmothers! (and grandfathers, and parents and kids and singles and all sorts of fun people)
Many wonderful people on this site.

So many of us never really come to this blog very often; we stay in the other ones...
unless we have something to watch out there.

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Quoting 19N81W:
how shear that high?..anyone have the latest shear maps?




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Quoting Weather456:


It is a factor. But you cannot look a shear now becuz there is not a system now. Look at the shear forecast in 168 hrs when there is a system at 168 hrs.


Please post it so we can see.
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1074. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting beell:
Not much of a groove with 40-50 knots of shear.
Just an opinion. Most of ya'll are blogging like it will not be a factor. Curious...
iam just poking with the stick see how far it goes
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Quoting beell:
Not much of a groove with 40-50 knots of shear.
Just an opinion. Most of ya'll are blogging like it will not be a factor. Curious...

That 40 knot shear is barely south and south east of Jamaica, this system is moving more WNW/NW under 5-10knots of shear from what I can tell, jmo of course I could be totally wrong as usual :)
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 8123
Quoting beell:
Not much of a groove with 40-50 knots of shear.
Just an opinion. Most of ya'll are blogging like it will not be a factor. Curious...


It is a factor. But you cannot look a shear now becuz there is not a system now. Look at the shear forecast in 168 hrs when there is a system at 168 hrs.


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1070. Drakoen
Quoting beell:
Not much of a groove with 40-50 knots of shear.
Just an opinion. Most of ya'll are blogging like it will not be a factor. Curious...
Quoting beell:
Not much of a groove with 40-50 knots of shear.
Just an opinion. Most of ya'll are blogging like it will not be a factor. Curious...


The ECMWF keeps the system in the southern Caribbean for a few days south of the trough axis.
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Quoting seflagamma:


I have been living here 30 years now..
My welcome wagon to SE FLA was Hurricane David.
We are use to always being prepared!

Awake, you are a grandma also huh? me too #5 will be here in the next few weeks...they call me "Gamma" LOL go figure! LOL




Couple grammas on here I think. Me too. 7 of them and they call me Nene. Oldest one (16 now) tried to say granny and it came out Nene and stuck.
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1068. 19N81W
how shear that high?..anyone have the latest shear maps?
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Current Weather Conditions:
San Andres Isla / Sesquicentenario, Colombia
(SKSP) 12-35N 081-43W 6M
Conditions at

2009.10.17 2100 UTC
Wind from the ENE (060 degrees) at 15 MPH (13 KT)
Visibility greater than 7 mile(s)
Sky conditions mostly cloudy
Weather Drizzle
Temperature 80 F (27 C)
Dew Point 77 F (25 C)
Relative Humidity 88%
Pressure (altimeter) 29.82 in. Hg (1009 hPa)
ob SKSP 172100Z 06013KT 9999 DZ SCT012 BKN070 27/25 A2982 RETS
I think this is the closest buoy to the blob.
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1066. beell
Not much of a groove with 40-50 knots of shear.
Just an opinion. Most of ya'll are blogging like it will not be a factor. Curious...
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Quoting Meteorology101:
I wouldn't like to be living in SF at a time like this, lol.


I have been living here 30 years now..
My welcome wagon to SE FLA was Hurricane David.
We are use to always being prepared!

Awake, you are a grandma also huh? me too #5 will be here in the next few weeks...they call me "Gamma" LOL go figure! LOL




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1063. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting wunderkidcayman:


this does not look good for us at all


it could be what ya call a weather bomb

bombing out where ever it goes

SST/TCHP is high anything goes if the window opens and it can get a groove on
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1062. beell
Gosh, that ole jet stream sure has been unusually strong this Fall...
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
If I remember correctly someone said eventually NNE towards Cayman and Jamaica.


well some models say nne then nnw
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Quoting 19N81W:
looks like the brac again?

look more like grand cayman
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Quoting 19N81W:
that came out of no where...always the early season cold fronts that cause this...oh boy another late season threat...anyway we need the rain but no wind...surely if its that close it wont have the time to spin up to much (fingers crossed(Paloma))..still looks like it is drifting nnw so not sure if that is good or not..where does the steering take it?
If I remember correctly someone said eventually NNE towards Cayman and Jamaica.
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Quoting seflagamma:
WOW Rick keeps getting stronger and stronger..


#1034 you are correct.. lots of wet wipes in the hurricane supply closet! I have an entire closet full of hurricane supplies! LOL

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1056. 19N81W
looks like the brac again?
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Quoting amd:
it's amazing that the two strongest storms in the pacific this year were actually invests in the atlantic.

Ex 96L = Hurricane Jimena
Ex 92L = Hurricane Rick

And, climate change "discussion" = yawn



Everyone knows Presslord and Orca control the climate and weather at the moment, why do you think the weathers been so crazy.
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1053. jipmg
Quoting 19N81W:
that came out of no where...always the early season cold fronts that cause this...oh boy another late season threat...anyway we need the rain but no wind...surely if its that close it wont have the time to spin up to much (fingers crossed(Paloma))..still looks like it is drifting nnw so not sure if that is good or not..where does the steering take it?


as the front and the system get closer, it will slow down
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1052. amd
it's amazing that the two strongest storms in the east pacific this year were actually invests in the atlantic.

Ex 96L = Hurricane Jimena
Ex 92L = Hurricane Rick

Concerning possible Caribbean development in the next week or so, I should mention that since the el nino is currently heavily western based (with the most warming west of the international date line), shear in the caribbean is not as bad in that region as it can be for a typical el nino year. So, I think the ECMWF "could" be onto something. Still though, nothing to worry about just yet.

Finally, climate change "discussion" = yawn

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1051. 19N81W
that came out of no where...always the early season cold fronts that cause this...oh boy another late season threat...anyway we need the rain but no wind...surely if its that close it wont have the time to spin up to much (fingers crossed(Paloma))..still looks like it is drifting nnw so not sure if that is good or not..where does the steering take it?
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Blob watching? If it gets past central America and doesn't hit the Yucatan I give it an outside shot later on.
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1049. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #25
TYPHOON LUPIT (T0920)
3:00 AM JST October 18 2009
================================

Subject: Category Four Typhoon In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 18:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Lupit (950 hPa) located at 16.7N 132.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 85 knots with gusts of 120 knots. The typhoon is reported as moving north-northeast at 6 knots

RSMC Dvorak Intensity: T5.5

Storm-Force Winds
=================
110 NM from the center

Gale-Force Winds
================
260 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
200 NM from the center in southwest quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
24 HRS: 17.3N 132.4E - 95 kts (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon)
48 HRS: 17.9N 130.4E - 100 kts (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon)
72 HRS: 18.6N 126.6E - 100 kts (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon)
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46287


this does not look good for us at all
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Quoting seflagamma:
Hi Chris, nice to meet you !

You can call me Gamma or Gams, my handle is way too long!


You are new to the site?
if so, Welcome!


Oh, that's funny. I kind of introduced myself to Met101 as (a) gramma yesterday. I didn't know you were here! So I'll just stick to "Nana" (Maryland). Great pic in your avatar, btw.
I'm going to lurk now and let the professionals do their job; it's really getting busy and I don't want to annoy any more than I already may have. Take care.
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1046. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
** WTPQ20 BABJ 171800 ***
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
STY LUPIT 0920 (0920) INITIAL TIME 171800 UTC
00HR 16.7N 132.6E 945HPA 48M/S (95 kts)
30KTS 450KM
50KTS 200KM
P12HR N 3KM/H
P+24HR 17.5N 132.6E 930HPA 55M/S (110 knots)
P+48HR 18.2N 128.5E 920HPA 60M/S (120 knots)
P+72HR 18.5N 124.6E 910HPA 65M/S (120 knots)
P+96HR 18.5N 120.2E 910HPA 65M/S= (130 knots)
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46287
Hi Chris, nice to meet you !

You can call me Gamma or Gams, my handle is way too long!


You are new to the site?
if so, Welcome!

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.
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WOW Rick keeps getting stronger and stronger..


#1034 you are correct.. lots of wet wipes in the hurricane supply closet! I have an entire closet full of hurricane supplies! LOL

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Quoting Weather456:


The CPD plots from the HWRF shows several other cyclones nearby including the system in the Caribbean



Ok, I didn't know they generated the phase diagram for the other cyclones in the domain. Seems odd since only the initialized vortex gets the finer resolution unless another is very close by.

That is possibly why the low doesn't show well in the pressure contour plot or deepen it. Might do so at a higher resolution...
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Hi all,

This is what I think I am hearing, but I'm not sure:

There is an area of low pressure near Central America. The European model develops it. Some are concerned it could move into the Caribbean. Some think it won't make it into the Gulf but some think it might. I need to check the NHC site ever so often to see if a yellow or orange blob goes up.

Is that the synopsis? Thanks for your answer in advance.
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What a COP OUT Atmo.

I did look back,...AND NO,...YOU DIDN"T ANSWER THOSE QUESTIONS. (NOT AT ALL) You duck,..you dodge,..weave and "Omit". This is yet more subterfuge on your part.

Happy Subterfugeing.


Quoting atmoaggie:

Wow, he didn't give up. And he didn't yet read back and see that I answered those questions for him already.

That area really is the absolute best happy-place for a TC in terms of OHC.



Basin-wide plot here: http://isotherm.rsmas.miami.edu/heat/data/ohc_tmi_latest3Q.gif
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1035. Drakoen
Tropical wave axis along 80W in the southern Caribbean at 18z
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Quoting seflagamma:


Well, as soon as we could we bought a generator (I think Wed) which helped a lot.. plus my home was very prepared.. we didn't really run out of anything..except ice after 4 or 5 days but by then we could buy it again.
It was cold that first evening and the next day
taking cold showers was rough! We did "Marine" showers..lather one arm, rinse that arm, lather other arm, rinse that arm. etc... so whole body wasn't wet at same time! It was cold those first few days.


Preparation is key.
Me: 1 anti-bacterial wipe in one hand.
1 "personal wipe" in the other.
But that's just me...and everyone I bought the wipes for!
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Quoting atmoaggie:
This is the most of a Caribbean low I can find the current Rick HWRF forecast...


(Pay no attention to the "Fine Mesh" zoom in plot)


That is in agreement with the CPD which shows the cyclone in the 1010 mb region, and does not deepen it.
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Quoting atmoaggie:
I like how the worst posters do not have a "Quote" button under them when using any filtering at all. Happiness...

Cool. Thanks for the hint. (Probably applies to me, though, lol, don't care...)
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1031. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
National Hurricane Center
Tropical Cyclone Warning #10
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE RICK (EP202009)
21:00 PM UTC October 17 2009
=======================================

Subject: Extremely Dangerous Hurricane Continues To Strengthen And May Become A Category Five Hurricane Tonight

At 18:00 PM UTC, Hurricane Rick (934 hPa) located at 14.8N 104.5W or 255 NM south of Manzanillo, Mexico has sustained winds of 130 knots with gusts of 160 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west-northwest at 13 knots

Hurricane Force Winds
======================
40 NM from the center

Gale/Storm Force Winds
================
135 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 15.3N 106.5W - 140 knots (SSHS-5 Cyclone)
24 HRS: 16.0N 108.8W - 140 knots (SSHS-5 Cyclone)
48 HRS: 17.9N 111.7W - 120 knots (SSHS-4 Cyclone)
72 HRS: 20.0N 112.0W - 105 knots (SSHS-3 Cyclone)
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46287
This is the most of a Caribbean low I can find the current Rick HWRF forecast...


(Pay no attention to the "Fine Mesh" zoom in plot)
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Quoting atmoaggie:

Not the cyclone phase...

But look at his link...it has a track in the Caribbean, it says "rick" and it says "future storm". Maybe I am not familiar enough with these plots...


The CPD plots from the HWRF shows several other cyclones surrounding Rick with the spatial grid including the system in the Caribbean

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The "free market" has had every chance to address climate change and energy shortage. THEY HAVEN"T. Legilating CO2 Emissions reductions is vital. If we don't show leadership,...IT FLAT WON"T HAPPEN. IF the "Government" had not set the goal of going to moon in 10 years,..and provided the resources, to make it happen,..IT WOULD NOT HAVE happened. The success of the Apollo program was a great example of how govenrment working in cooperation with the private sector can accomplish great things,...they did it,..and did it right,..one of our finest hours. An "Apollo scale directive",...incentives etc cooperation,...are exactly what has "been lacking",...and is exactly what is now called for. A goal,...has to be set.

The free market is great for a lot of things,...progress on things like Climate Change,...Health Care,..are two where "IT STINKS"...There is your "stink test" Atmo.


Quoting atmoaggie:
942:

Well, we are locally going to have a cheaper power bill starting this month thanks to Cleco opening a new waste product burning power plant here. (I am sure you know the following already, but) And that is CO2 that absorbed by trees and would otherwise just rot and release the CO2 back into the atmosphere. So the paper mills are going to send the waste to the power plant and the cost of energy here is going to go down a little.

I have absolutely no problem with reducing fossil fuel use when/where an effective, dependable alternative is available that doesn't cost more. Legislating higher energy costs is absurd and has not passed the stink test, in my opinion, for lacking logical reasons to do so.
Improvements do not have to be legislated, cost more, nor line the pockets of any corporation, politician, or carbon credit trader...
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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