Second warmest September on record for the globe
The globe recorded its second warmest September since record keeping began in 1880, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. The combined global land and ocean temperature anomaly was 0.62°C (1.12°F), falling only 0.04°C (0.07°F) short of tying the record set in 2005. NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies also rated September 2009 as the 2nd warmest September on record, falling 0.02°C short of the record set in 2005. It was the 33rd consecutive September with a global temperature above the 20th century average. NOAA rated the year-to-date period, January - September 2009, as the sixth warmest such period on record. The September satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the 2nd warmest on record, behind 1998. Global ocean Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies, however, cooled a bit, and were the 5th warmest on record. Global SSTs were the warmest on record during the Northern Hemisphere summer, June - August.
Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for September 2009. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.
A warm September for the U.S., and record heat in the West
For the contiguous U.S., the average September temperature was 1.0°F above average, making it the 32nd warmest September in the 115-year record, according to the National Climatic Data Center. The West had is warmest September on record, with Nevada and California recording their warmest September, and six other western states observing a top-ten warmest September--Montana (3rd warmest), North Dakota (3rd), Idaho (4th), Utah (5th), Minnesota (6th), and Oregon (8th). However, a combination a slow-moving storm system during the beginning of the month and two surface cold fronts during the last week resulted in much below normal temperature averages in Kansas (10th coolest) and Oklahoma (11th coolest). The year-to-date (January - September) period was the 29th warmest such period for the contiguous U.S.
U.S. precipitation near average
U.S. precipitation in September was exactly average. Statewide-averaged rainfall was among the ten wettest for four southern states (Arkansas, 2nd wettest; Tennessee (5th), Mississippi (6th), and Alabama (6th)). Maine and Wisconsin each experienced their fourth driest September and both New Hampshire and Michigan had their seventh driest such periods.
U.S. drought
At the end of September, 15% of the contiguous United States was in moderate-to-exceptional drought. This is a drop from the 19% figure observed at the beginning of the year. Exceptional drought (the worst category of drought) was seen in South to Central Texas, though the area covered by exceptional drought shrank by 50% over the past month, thanks to much-needed rains over the region.
U.S. fire activity
During September, 5,535 fires burned approximately 378,523 acres, each of which was below the 2000 - 2009 average for the month. The acreage lost to wildfire was roughly half of the 2000 - 2009 average. For the year to date (January.September), 70,217 fires was slightly above the 10-year average, while acreage burned was slightly less than average.
Weak El Niño conditions continue
El Niño conditions continue over the tropical Eastern Pacific. Ocean temperatures in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", were 0.3°C above the threshold for a weak El Niño, according to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center is maintaining an El Niño Advisory. Current conditions and model forecasts favor the continued development of a weak-to-moderate strength El Niño event into the Northern Hemisphere Fall 2009, with the likelihood of at least a moderate strength El Niño (3-month Niño-3.4 SST index of +1.0°C or greater) during the Northern Hemisphere Winter 2009-10.
September sea ice extent in the Arctic 3rd lowest on record
September 2009 Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent was the 3rd lowest since satellite measurements began in 1979, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). Only 2007 and 2008 saw lower Arctic sea ice extent. Both the Northwest Passage and Northeast Passage melted free, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. This marks the second consecutive year--and the second time in recorded history--both of these Arctic shipping routes have melted free. The past five years have had the five lowest Arctic ice extents on record. In their 2009 report on this year's Arctic sea ice minimum, NSIDC Director and Senior Scientist Mark Serreze said, "It's nice to see a little recovery over the past couple years, but there's no reason to think that we're headed back to conditions seen back in the 1970s. We still expect to see ice-free summers sometime in the next few decades". Only 19% of the ice cover this summer in the Arctic was over 2 years old, the least in the satellite record, and far below the 1981 - 2000 average of 52%. NSIDC Scientist Walt Meier said, "We've preserved a fair amount of first-year ice and second-year ice after this summer compared to the past couple of years. If this ice remains in the Arctic through the winter, it will thicken, which gives some hope of stabilizing the ice cover over the next few years. However, the ice is still much younger and thinner than it was in the 1980s, leaving it vulnerable to melt during the summer". Earlier this summer, NASA researcher Ron Kwok and colleagues from the University of Washington in Seattle published satellite data showing that Arctic ice thickness declined by 0.68 meters (2.2 feet) between 2004 and 2008. The overall mean winter thickness was 3.64 meters in 1980, and 1.89 meters during the winter of 2007 - 2008, a massive decrease of 48%.
References
Kwok, R., and D. A. Rothrock. 2009. Decline in Arctic sea ice thickness from submarine and ICESat records: 1958.2008, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L15501, doi:10.1029/2009GL039035.
Figure 2. Category 1 Typhoon Lupit in the Philippine Sea at 04:45 UTC October 16, 2009. Image credit: NASA MODIS Rapid Response System.
Tropical update
In the Atlantic, there are no threat areas to discuss, and none of the computer models is calling for tropical storm formation over the next week.
There are two potential serious threats in the Pacific. Tropical Storm Rick off the Pacific coast of Mexico is expected to recurve to the north and threaten Baja late next week. While Rick is expected to become a major hurricane early next week, the storm should weaken significantly before any potential landfall in Mexico, due to high wind shear and cooler ocean temperatures the storm will find as it approaches Baja.
More seriously, Typhoon Lupit in the Western Pacific is expected to intensify into a Category 4 typhoon and threaten the northern Philippines by Tuesday. Last week, Super Typhoon Parma crossed over the northern Philippines three times, dumping over twenty inches of rain in many locations. Over 300 people died in the resulting flash floods and landslides. A visit by Typhoon Lupit could create a major catastrophe in the northern Philippines as the storm dumps another 1 - 2 feet of rain on the already saturated soils.
My next post will be Sunday or Monday.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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I don't think that 200 mph winds were sustained...and I don't believe it went into the historical database as 200 mph sustained.
Labor Day Hurricane
I think Wilma goes down as the most awesome storm in the Alt or Epac basins. The rapid intensification and pinhole eye were just something to behold.
And there it is. Thanks, nrt.
I guess Rick has taught us that what appears to be marginal TCHP doesn't necessarily mean the environment isn't capable of supporting a cat 5.
Interesting. Looking at the CPC Pacific SSTs, it seems that Rick's area just warmed back up in the last couple of weeks.
this is for next week time frame? I was so happy with today's coldfront coming into south florida, I had hoped it meant the unoffical close to the season for us. While I enjoy storm watching, I was quite happy with the quiet this season.
Btw Rick really is spectacular, I can't stop watching, hope he fizzles though before he visits any land.
212 mph, the highest wind speed ever recorded in Cuba.
Yes
That gust has been classified as a new world record. (211.3 mph)
Link
IN STEERING BY TURNING THE HURRICANE TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST
AT DIFFERENT SPEEDS...
Seismic Monitor
AOI
AOI
Humor in Comments
why on earth has the NHC not classified it as a CAT 5?
probably becuz it was a gust and not sustained.
http://www.ultimatechase.com/Chase_Accounts/Images/Hurricane_Wilma/Wilma_Infrared_Sat_Large.jpg
sorry wrong link orginally
hey
oops, wrong poster.
Let's see if this thing makes it to 200MPH! Man! I wonder how powerful hurricanes were during the medieval warming period! I bet they reached upwards to 240MPH!
You realize that is an image of Gonu in 2007.
Actually a study of drilled cores in PR showed more sediment from storm surges in the little ice age than in any other time period.
That is only for PR, of course. Could have been the opposite in a lot of places.
yeah sorry i had the wrong link my bad, I fixed the comment
Oh my god, I had forgotten how scary that thing was
As you can see Wilma>Rick... Both amazingly strong canes however
I bet those were extratropical superstorms lol.
A truly frightening storm....
Correct. Rick is representative of a powerful Category 5 hurricane; Wilma is representative of an exceptionally powerful Category 5 hurricane.
Link
Hurricane Rick became the 2nd strongest eastern Pacific hurricane ever.
Typhoon "RAMIL" has gained more strength as it continues to slow down.
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #5
===============================
At 11:00 AM PhST, Typhoon Ramil (Lupit) located at 17.2ºN 132.9ºE or 1,060 kms east southeast of Aparri, Cagayan has 10 minute sustained winds of 175 km/h (95 kts) with gustiness up to 210 km/h (110 kts).
Additional Information
======================
This disturbance will not affect any part of the country within the next 36 hours.
The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today.
NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE ON RECORD AFTER LINDA OF 1997...
INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF
MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SEVERE HURRICANE.
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE RICK WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.9 WEST OR ABOUT 295 MILES
...475 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AND ABOUT 605 MILES
...975 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO.
RICK IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON SUNDAY. A GRADUAL TURN TO
THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH SHOULD BEGIN ON MONDAY.
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT RICK HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN...
AND THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW ESTIMATED NEAR 180
MPH...285 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RICK IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE.
SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY ON SUNDAY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 18/0300Z 15.0N 105.9W 155 KT
12HR VT 18/1200Z 15.7N 107.8W 160 KT
24HR VT 19/0000Z 16.6N 110.0W 150 KT
36HR VT 19/1200Z 17.5N 111.5W 140 KT
48HR VT 20/0000Z 18.5N 112.0W 120 KT
72HR VT 21/0000Z 20.5N 111.5W 105 KT
96HR VT 22/0000Z 23.5N 110.0W 80 KT
120HR VT 23/0000Z 27.0N 106.0W 40 KT...INLAND
Oops Melor not Mawar (Mawar is also a WPAC typhoon name, Typhoon Mawar of '05)
oh crap wunderground just got rick rolled
Some of you were speculating on how much stronger Rick could get. This link is great.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/#
For answering such questions. If you click on the Hurricane icon (the storm of interest) it gives you a map that shows SSTs, OHC, and,...most importantly in this case,..isoplots of max theoretical intensity that is min pressure in the eye,...right now Risk according to the Emanuel method, would max out at 880 mb and 160 knots. If conditions were perfect. So,..stay tuned,...its at 150 knots now,..geez. It only recently left the "iso-island" of pressure of 860 mb,...180 knots,...ahh,..timing is everything. Anyway for answering those kinds of hypotheticals,...that site from the University of Wisconsin is very useful. I lucked out actually,...as I was emailing Dr. Emanuel,...I managed to get his simulation program,..(no longer offered),..but its a blast,...you can play out every scenario you want,..well into the "hypercane regime". Gives you the ability to input wind shear,...SST, Stratosphere temp,...humidity,...the works,...very, very fun to play with. I managed to get one below 400 mb and 500 mph. But it took totally insane SSTs 37 deg. C,..and cloud tops of -85 C. Anyway,...the Wisconsin site is very handy. For some reason,..the OHC (Ocean heat content) tab is only working on the Atlantic basin right now,...they told me they're going to offer the OHC charts in the other basins soon. The NOOA site can give you TCHP if ya need it.
Happy Hurricaning.
That came around back in 2005 after the manic activity. Thing is here.. nothing really is going to survive 156> mph winds with massive storm surge, so really no point to add another category in. IF there was a Category 6 I think it would be in the 190> Category, with a pressure of less than 900, and I think this would only be necessary if we start getting every other storm becoming stronger than Wilma.
Oz, I hear Balloon Boy's Daddy is available!
Good night, everyone, this has really been an exciting day/night. Thank you all so much.
In my inexperienced opinion, Rick is even a more terrible beauty than Wilma -- visually, that is.
Rick is in some hot water LOL
I'm sorry, I know you're a total pro.
It's been dreadful weather here, we're going to have another full day of it, so please chalk it up to cabin fever or being punch drunk from following the hurricanes all day. Good night and stay safe. I won't kid w/you again since you don't know I'm a total pro in a couple fields, as well. Not your fault.
ADT near 160 knots.
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.6 / 905.6mb/158.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
7.6 7.6 7.6
Viewing: 1401 - 1451
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