Second warmest September on record for the globe

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:49 PM GMT on October 16, 2009

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The globe recorded its second warmest September since record keeping began in 1880, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. The combined global land and ocean temperature anomaly was 0.62°C (1.12°F), falling only 0.04°C (0.07°F) short of tying the record set in 2005. NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies also rated September 2009 as the 2nd warmest September on record, falling 0.02°C short of the record set in 2005. It was the 33rd consecutive September with a global temperature above the 20th century average. NOAA rated the year-to-date period, January - September 2009, as the sixth warmest such period on record. The September satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the 2nd warmest on record, behind 1998. Global ocean Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies, however, cooled a bit, and were the 5th warmest on record. Global SSTs were the warmest on record during the Northern Hemisphere summer, June - August.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for September 2009. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.

A warm September for the U.S., and record heat in the West
For the contiguous U.S., the average September temperature was 1.0°F above average, making it the 32nd warmest September in the 115-year record, according to the National Climatic Data Center. The West had is warmest September on record, with Nevada and California recording their warmest September, and six other western states observing a top-ten warmest September--Montana (3rd warmest), North Dakota (3rd), Idaho (4th), Utah (5th), Minnesota (6th), and Oregon (8th). However, a combination a slow-moving storm system during the beginning of the month and two surface cold fronts during the last week resulted in much below normal temperature averages in Kansas (10th coolest) and Oklahoma (11th coolest). The year-to-date (January - September) period was the 29th warmest such period for the contiguous U.S.

U.S. precipitation near average
U.S. precipitation in September was exactly average. Statewide-averaged rainfall was among the ten wettest for four southern states (Arkansas, 2nd wettest; Tennessee (5th), Mississippi (6th), and Alabama (6th)). Maine and Wisconsin each experienced their fourth driest September and both New Hampshire and Michigan had their seventh driest such periods.

U.S. drought
At the end of September, 15% of the contiguous United States was in moderate-to-exceptional drought. This is a drop from the 19% figure observed at the beginning of the year. Exceptional drought (the worst category of drought) was seen in South to Central Texas, though the area covered by exceptional drought shrank by 50% over the past month, thanks to much-needed rains over the region.

U.S. fire activity
During September, 5,535 fires burned approximately 378,523 acres, each of which was below the 2000 - 2009 average for the month. The acreage lost to wildfire was roughly half of the 2000 - 2009 average. For the year to date (January.September), 70,217 fires was slightly above the 10-year average, while acreage burned was slightly less than average.

Weak El Niño conditions continue
El Niño conditions continue over the tropical Eastern Pacific. Ocean temperatures in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", were 0.3°C above the threshold for a weak El Niño, according to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center is maintaining an El Niño Advisory. Current conditions and model forecasts favor the continued development of a weak-to-moderate strength El Niño event into the Northern Hemisphere Fall 2009, with the likelihood of at least a moderate strength El Niño (3-month Niño-3.4 SST index of +1.0°C or greater) during the Northern Hemisphere Winter 2009-10.

September sea ice extent in the Arctic 3rd lowest on record
September 2009 Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent was the 3rd lowest since satellite measurements began in 1979, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). Only 2007 and 2008 saw lower Arctic sea ice extent. Both the Northwest Passage and Northeast Passage melted free, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. This marks the second consecutive year--and the second time in recorded history--both of these Arctic shipping routes have melted free. The past five years have had the five lowest Arctic ice extents on record. In their 2009 report on this year's Arctic sea ice minimum, NSIDC Director and Senior Scientist Mark Serreze said, "It's nice to see a little recovery over the past couple years, but there's no reason to think that we're headed back to conditions seen back in the 1970s. We still expect to see ice-free summers sometime in the next few decades". Only 19% of the ice cover this summer in the Arctic was over 2 years old, the least in the satellite record, and far below the 1981 - 2000 average of 52%. NSIDC Scientist Walt Meier said, "We've preserved a fair amount of first-year ice and second-year ice after this summer compared to the past couple of years. If this ice remains in the Arctic through the winter, it will thicken, which gives some hope of stabilizing the ice cover over the next few years. However, the ice is still much younger and thinner than it was in the 1980s, leaving it vulnerable to melt during the summer". Earlier this summer, NASA researcher Ron Kwok and colleagues from the University of Washington in Seattle published satellite data showing that Arctic ice thickness declined by 0.68 meters (2.2 feet) between 2004 and 2008. The overall mean winter thickness was 3.64 meters in 1980, and 1.89 meters during the winter of 2007 - 2008, a massive decrease of 48%.

References
Kwok, R., and D. A. Rothrock. 2009. Decline in Arctic sea ice thickness from submarine and ICESat records: 1958.2008, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L15501, doi:10.1029/2009GL039035.


Figure 2. Category 1 Typhoon Lupit in the Philippine Sea at 04:45 UTC October 16, 2009. Image credit: NASA MODIS Rapid Response System.

Tropical update
In the Atlantic, there are no threat areas to discuss, and none of the computer models is calling for tropical storm formation over the next week.

There are two potential serious threats in the Pacific. Tropical Storm Rick off the Pacific coast of Mexico is expected to recurve to the north and threaten Baja late next week. While Rick is expected to become a major hurricane early next week, the storm should weaken significantly before any potential landfall in Mexico, due to high wind shear and cooler ocean temperatures the storm will find as it approaches Baja.

More seriously, Typhoon Lupit in the Western Pacific is expected to intensify into a Category 4 typhoon and threaten the northern Philippines by Tuesday. Last week, Super Typhoon Parma crossed over the northern Philippines three times, dumping over twenty inches of rain in many locations. Over 300 people died in the resulting flash floods and landslides. A visit by Typhoon Lupit could create a major catastrophe in the northern Philippines as the storm dumps another 1 - 2 feet of rain on the already saturated soils.

My next post will be Sunday or Monday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Orcasystems:


Naw.. I just want to see snow in Florida... everyone keeps saying they are to hot and muggy. When we see the word "cold front" in our weather forecast... it means... COLD. I bet one day of snow...and everyone would like the heat back :)

KOG is suppose to get a bit of snow this weekend :)

BTW, looking at pictures of a possible new Toy :)


I grew up in Satellite Beach. I did see icicles once while walking to school. That was in the late 60's.
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327. xcool
big LCD
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326. xcool
i just email white house and President Obama
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Quoting Manhattancane:


Wow, that is amazing.

Lasted 1 or 2 thousand years and would've lasted a few more but couldn't make it through a little teething period in humanity. Maybe this is a reason for some of the climate change deniers (others are personal (sometimes short term) gain, distrust science) It just is the empty hope that 'hey, maybe this could still not be true, we don't have to change after all!'

Harumph...

And have you seen all of the greenhouse gases on the infrared satellite plots, too?

(We actually had someone in here tell us that the low clouds showing in an IR satellite image was actually CO2 showing up...LOL!)
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
Quoting IKE:


See post 299.
Thanks IKE/Got it!
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here are the other computers I work with (:
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322. IKE
Quoting superpete:
Post 304-Drakoen.
Do you have a link to the model animation? Interested to see that loop,regards...


See post 299.
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Quoting pearlandaggie:
311. no, don't wish for that! LOL...the oranges i eat for breakfast will skyrocket in price! ;)

by the way, that's a cool boat! what will tickets cost? LOL


Trust me.. my products would cost me more to make also.. so justa day of snow would work.. the last thing I need is orange prices going up... hmm or would they be cheaper.. maybe cheaper.. have to check :)

This is the original toy I was looking at.


317. PcolaDan 7:22 PM GMT on October 16, 2009

ROFLMAO
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
Post 304-Drakoen.
Do you have a link to the model animation? Interested to see that loop,regards...
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Quoting PcolaDan:


For those even farther south than me. :)

Main Entry: snow
Pronunciation: \ˈsnō\
Function: noun
Usage: often attributive
Etymology: Middle English, from Old English snāw; akin to Old High German snēo snow, Latin niv-, nix, Greek nipha (accusative)
Date: before 12th century

1 a : precipitation in the form of small white ice crystals formed directly from the water vapor of the air at a temperature of less than 32°F (0°C) b (1) : a descent or shower of snow crystals (2) : a mass of fallen snow crystals


LOL
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Quoting Orcasystems:


Naw.. I just want to see snow in Florida... everyone keeps saying they are to hot and muggy. When we see the word "cold front" in our weather forecast... it means... COLD. I bet one day of snow...and everyone would like the heat back :)

KOG is suppose to get a bit of snow this weekend :)
You should see how we drive down here if it rains ! God forbid it ever snow's!That would be a hoot!
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Quoting Orcasystems:


Snow :)


For those even farther south than me. :)

Main Entry: snow
Pronunciation: \ˈsnō\
Function: noun
Usage: often attributive
Etymology: Middle English, from Old English snāw; akin to Old High German snēo snow, Latin niv-, nix, Greek nipha (accusative)
Date: before 12th century

1 a : precipitation in the form of small white ice crystals formed directly from the water vapor of the air at a temperature of less than 32°F (0°C) b (1) : a descent or shower of snow crystals (2) : a mass of fallen snow crystals
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BTW, looking at pictures of a possible new Toy :)

what a boat!
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Thanks IKE
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311. no, don't wish for that! LOL...the oranges i eat for breakfast will skyrocket in price! ;)

by the way, that's a cool boat! what will tickets cost? LOL
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Quoting atmoaggie:
thpbpbpbpbpbp!!! (My general response concerning any AGW discussion today...if you really want to know what I think, google "atmoaggie warming", as if anyone doesn't know already)

Having fun, t-dude?

I live in Linux world. I have erased Windoze off of machines and installed Linux by choice, if that tells ya anything.

WU mail any specific questions you have.


Hey there, actually I really enjoy my job, as of right now I'm just learning Linux and LMD
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308. here ya go! LOL

Link

just messin' with ya :)
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Quoting pearlandaggie:
302. hey orca, looking to pick a fight again? LOL

btw, thanks for the funnies on your blog. that grim reaper video had me rolling!


Naw.. I just want to see snow in Florida... everyone keeps saying they are to hot and muggy. When we see the word "cold front" in our weather forecast... it means... COLD. I bet one day of snow...and everyone would like the heat back :)

KOG is suppose to get a bit of snow this weekend :)

BTW, looking at pictures of a possible new Toy :)
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
310. IKE
Quoting PELLSPROG:
What is the normal yearly average of hurricanes ,tropical storms, and major hurricanes ? And where are we at as of now ?


10-6-2....Link

Now at 8-2-2.
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What is the normal yearly average of hurricanes ,tropical storms, and major hurricanes ? And where are we at as of now ?
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302. hey orca, looking to pick a fight again? LOL

btw, thanks for the funnies on your blog. that grim reaper video had me rolling!
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306. xcool


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305. xcool
oh wow looking at ecmwf
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Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29714
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29714


Seismic Monitor

AOI

AOI

Humor in Comments
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
Quoting KarenRei:


the deniers often like to quote...
denialsphere,

Any other questions?


Hows about you stop with the ridicule and simply stick to your refutations.

How would you, in the AGW camp, like to be called 'bedwetters' as Lord Monckton has suggested? Considering how quickly you all seem to resort to ridicule as part of your position.

Always throwing a fit and losing control. It sure fits your actions to a tee.

On second thought, keep on doing the ridicule thing...it makes it easy to know when you are blowing smoke.
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300. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #17
TYPHOON LUPIT (T0920)
3:00 AM JST October 17 2009
================================

Subject: Category Three Typhoon In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 18:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Lupit (970 hPa) located at 14.5N 133.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 65 knots with gusts of 95 knots. The typhoon is reported as moving west-northwest at 11 knots

RSMC Dvorak Intensity: T4.0

Storm-Force Winds
=================
60 NM from the center

Gale-Force Winds
================
240 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
200 NM from the center in southwest quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
24 HRS: 15.8N 131.0E - 80 kts( CAT 3/Strong Typhoon)
48 HRS: 16.3N 130.6E - 90 kts (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon)
72 HRS: 17.0N 128.5E - 90 kts (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon)
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43702
299. IKE
12Z ECMWF w/a Caribbean storm
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The ECMWF and CMC 12z continue to show development in the Caribbean. Definitely need to be on the look out next week.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29714
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:
YAAHHHHHHH!

A cold front expected to move through South Florida Saturday will
put an abrupt end to this unusual October heat wave, with
temperatures falling a good 15 to 20 degrees by Sunday morning.
Temperatures will actually be below the seasonal normals Sunday into
the early part of next week.


Snow :)
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
YAAHHHHHHH!

A cold front expected to move through South Florida Saturday will
put an abrupt end to this unusual October heat wave, with
temperatures falling a good 15 to 20 degrees by Sunday morning.
Temperatures will actually be below the seasonal normals Sunday into
the early part of next week.
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THanks for your response KarenRei. I actually thought of the CO2 idea myself. Others may have come up with that hypothesis first. I have found that very few individuals have an original idea, myself included. I am convined that we are in a warming period. I ask questions to find out where the balance will be after the change. Planet earth will survive this climate change. Some species will go extinct. Others will evolve to take advantage and climb higher on the food chain. I am by no means a scientist but I am curious enough to question statistics and how the facts are interpreted.

Whether or not the hoax was news driven or science driven it happened.

As I stated earlier thanks for your response. I am learning through questioning.
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INVEST 94

Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
Quoting Manhattancane:


Wow, that is amazing.

Lasted 1 or 2 thousand years and would've lasted a few more but couldn't make it through a little teething period in humanity. Maybe this is a reason for some of the climate change deniers (others are personal (sometimes short term) gain, distrust science) It just is the empty hope that 'hey, maybe this could still not be true, we don't have to change after all!'


GW is not responsible for the deterioration of the statues and buildings. Most of it is from pollution from cars, and some from acid rain. Even inside buildings there are problems, but mostly from tourists exhaling. :)
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Quoting Manhattancane:


It just is the empty hope that 'hey, maybe this could still not be true, we don't have to change after all!'


that could be true.......or, it could be that maybe they don't one someone else's belief system, though coercion, forced upon them. maybe, just maybe, they just want to be left alone to live their lives in freedom.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
anwer to your question is normally high snow totals occur when temp is hovering between 2 below freezing point and 2 above freezing point
freezing point is 32



?? I did't have a question.
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oh my...he actually went and did it! LOL
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Let's ask Joe Bastardi what he thinks, LoL

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Quoting Grothar:


How true! When a quick disaster happens, the response is usually immediate (sometimes), but when a quiet, slow disaster is unfolding, one tends to ignore it and hope it goes away. The saddest part is, it doesn't! I have traveled extensively and have seen statutes in Rome which I remember as detailed, that are now eaten away. The same in Greece and even in Germany. There are Cathedrals with beautiful stone works which have deteriorated since I was young, which, by the way, was not that long ago!


Fortunately Europe seems to be in a mad rush to clean and protect their history now. Scaffolding is everywhere. Getting harder and harder to take good pictures, a good thing. Just hope Italy manages to save all the pictures (frescoes I think) on sides of building that are fading away.
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thpbpbpbpbpbp!!! (My general response concerning any AGW discussion today...if you really want to know what I think, google "atmoaggie warming", as if anyone doesn't know already)

Having fun, t-dude?

I live in Linux world. I have erased Windoze off of machines and installed Linux by choice, if that tells ya anything.

WU mail any specific questions you have.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
Quoting Grothar:


How true! When a quick disaster happens, the response is usually immediate (sometimes), but when a quiet, slow disaster is unfolding, one tends to ignore it and hope it goes away. The saddest part is, it doesn't! I have traveled extensively and have seen statutes in Rome which I remember as detailed, that are now eaten away. The same in Greece and even in Germany. There are Cathedrals with beautiful stone works which have deteriorated since I was young, which, by the way, was not that long ago!


Wow, that is amazing.

Lasted 1 or 2 thousand years and would've lasted a few more but couldn't make it through a little teething period in humanity. Maybe this is a reason for some of the climate change deniers (others are personal (sometimes short term) gain, distrust science) It just is the empty hope that 'hey, maybe this could still not be true, we don't have to change after all!'
Member Since: August 24, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 72
Quoting Grothar:


Great pictures. You have been to some places haven't you. I know Idstein is near Hesse, but I have never heard of Epstein, Germany. I lived in Germany a long time, but do not recall the name. Where is it. It looks like a beautiful city.


Eppstein (spelled it wrong and fixed it) is just East of A3 below Idstein, in Taunus. Lived in Kriftel for 3 years, just down A66 from Frankfurt towards Weisbaden.
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ok, so my poll killed the blog, just trying to bring a little afternoon humour xD
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283. xcool
guess we next to seeing name storm imo
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Poll:

At 50% below sea level, which is most likely to occur fist:

A:complete and total economic collapse

B:complete arctic meltdown due to CC
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Quoting iluvjess:


Alabama Gulf Coast... Baldwin County
anwer to your question is normally high snow totals occur when temp is hovering between 2 below freezing point and 2 above freezing point
freezing point is 32

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Wish Dr Masters would stop posting up bogus democratic climate reports... Those reports are false
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Quoting Manhattancane:


People don't seem to care. Really, it is very possible to have a modern civilization without doing this stuff. It is very sad that we are this powerful so far from our built/used area and even agricultural fields.


How true! When a quick disaster happens, the response is usually immediate (sometimes), but when a quiet, slow disaster is unfolding, one tends to ignore it and hope it goes away. The saddest part is, it doesn't! I have traveled extensively and have seen statutes in Rome which I remember as detailed, that are now eaten away. The same in Greece and even in Germany. There are Cathedrals with beautiful stone works which have deteriorated since I was young, which, by the way, was not that long ago!
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.