Western Caribbean disturbance less organized; Typhoon Lupit may spare Philippines

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:49 PM GMT on October 22, 2009

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A broad 1009 mb low pressure area is over the Southwest Caribbean near 12N 83W, off the coast of Nicaragua. This low, in combination with an upper-level trough of low pressure, is generating some disorganized heavy thunderstorm activity over the Western Caribbean and Central America. A second 1008 mb low pressure area is over the Pacific Ocean near the coast of Costa Rica. The two lows appear to be competing with each other, with the result that the organization of the thunderstorm activity over the region is less than yesterday's. Recent satellite loops show little change in the areal coverage or intensity of the thunderstorms this morning. NHC designated this disturbance Invest 94L on Tuesday, but is no longer issuing model products for it. This morning's QuikSCAT pass missed the Western Caribbean, but last night's pass showed no signs of a surface circulation. Wind shear is moderate, about 10 - 20 knots, and there is a deep layer of high moisture over the entire Western Caribbean, so we still need to keep an eye on this disturbance. NHC is giving 94L a low (less than 30% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday. No models predict development of this system over the next seven days, but I'll continue to give a medium (30 - 50% chance) that a Western Caribbean tropical depression will form sometime in the next ten days.

NHC is also mentioning an area of disturbed weather over the Bahamas, associated with a trough of low pressure in the upper atmosphere. This disturbance is moving slowly westwards towards Florida, and is under very high wind shear of 40 knots. No development is likely due to the high shear.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of twin surface low pressure systems, on either side of Central America.

Typhoon Lupit may spare the Philippines
Typhoon Lupit continues to struggle with dry air, which has significantly disrupted the typhoon's inner core, leading to a partial collapse of the eyewall. Lupit is now a minimal Category 1 storm with 75 mph winds. Recent microwave imagery shows that the typhoon is missing a large portion of its western eyewall, and this morning's infrared satellite loop shows that the storm's heavy thunderstorm activity is rather disorganized. Even in its current weakened state, Lupit is a dangerous rain-maker, with rainfall rates exceeding twelve inches per day near its core (Figure 2).

While it is too early to be confident of this forecast, it now appears that Lupit will spare the Philippines a direct hit and a punishing deluge of 12+ inches of rain. The typhoon has slowed in reaction to a collapse of the steering currents, and most of the models are now calling for Lupit to stall just offshore, or recurve to the northeast. The very slow motion of the storm means that it will stir up large quantities of cool water from the depths that will then surround the storm, making re-intensification unlikely, and decreasing the amount of rain the storm is able to produce. The typhoon's core of heaviest rain appears likely to remain offshore, though the extreme northern portion of Luzon Island may still receive 6 - 12 inches of rain before the storm finally departs.

Storm chaser Jim Edds is in northern Luzon to document Lupit's impact, and has photos of the preparations the residents are taking.


Figure 2. Forecast rainfall for the 24-hour period ending at 06 UTC Friday 10/23/09. Lupit is expected to dump rains in excess of twelve inches (red colors) near its core. However, this core of heavy rain will remain offshore over at least the next two days. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

I'll have an update Friday morning.

Jeff Masters

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812. markymark1973
4:22 PM GMT on October 23, 2009
Unfavorable conditions have been settled in the Western Atlantic basin for how many months now??? The season is OVER. You could have a better chance hitting the lottery than getting another named storm. I think the NHC is bored 95L is a joke. Going to be under moderate shear of 30kts for the next 36 hrs and then after that it only gets worse with the trough moving off the east coast. Starting to look like 8/2/2 will be the storm count for the 2009 hurricane season.
811. CaicosRetiredSailor
2:00 PM GMT on October 23, 2009
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6064
810. IKE
1:59 PM GMT on October 23, 2009
NEW BLOG!
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
809. weathermanwannabe
1:58 PM GMT on October 23, 2009
Quoting TampaSpin:


That and DRy air...No way anything develops in those conditions......until things change....NO WAY!....i guess im a downcaster.....LOL


Yeah....We discussed that dry air point a few days ago as to whether it would filter all the way down into the Caribbean and it has...
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9321
807. IKE
1:55 PM GMT on October 23, 2009
Quoting hurricane23:


broad weak low pressure area down there has fizzled. Disturbance in the bahamas (could) bring parts of southern florida some rain but no development is expected. I think that about does it for this season. Next year should be interesting.

adrian


And I agree with you, I think it's about finished in 2009 in the Atlantic. Maybe some named system out in the CATL might spin up.

Amazing that Claudette was/is, the only named storm to exist beyond 75W ALL season.

That should be telling everyone something about the chances of a named system in the western Caribbean in late October, when there's been one named system beyond 75W all year...in 145 days of the season.

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
806. TampaSpin
1:54 PM GMT on October 23, 2009
The NHC should remove the yellow on the next update....Shear, the ULL, Dry air is all the reasons to take it down......NOTHING CAN and will develop with those conditions down there...HECK if they leave it up long enough, i guess they might get it right next year if they wonna leave it up.......LOL
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
805. TampaSpin
1:51 PM GMT on October 23, 2009
Quoting IKE:


So true....but, you left out one....

They come back in here and call others that said it wouldn't develop... downcasters....and then they leave.



Dido IKE.....POOF.......LOL
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
804. IKE
1:50 PM GMT on October 23, 2009
Quoting capeflorida:


Man you need some help! You are taking this way personal. This is just a weather blog and people give their opinions.
It seems to me you only get on here to call for development whenever an AOI is posted, then you disappear when it doesn't turn out the way you thought.
This isn"t about who win or looses!!!


So true....but, you left out one....

They come back in here and call others that said it wouldn't develop... downcasters....and then they leave.

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
803. caneswatch
1:48 PM GMT on October 23, 2009
Quoting Grothar:


Be right there! The dry air won't stick around there forever.


Ok.
Member Since: October 8, 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4553
802. Grothar
1:47 PM GMT on October 23, 2009
Quoting caneswatch:


Good morning Grothar! Mind going on the weather chat for a few, private matter.


Be right there! The dry air won't stick around there forever.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26821
801. hurricane23
1:47 PM GMT on October 23, 2009
Quoting reedzone:
Also guys think of this.. The downcasters may have one the battle, but Mother Nature will always win the war. Peoples minds cannot compete with Mother Nature.


broad weak low pressure area down there has fizzled. Disturbance in the bahamas (could) bring parts of southern florida some rain but no development is expected. I think that about does it for this season. Next year should be interesting.

adrian
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13839
800. caneswatch
1:45 PM GMT on October 23, 2009
Quoting Grothar:


yeah, and by the way, I didn't notice tornadodude either! Hope he didn't get banned for his little faux pas the other day. It was just a mistake.


Good morning Grothar! Mind going on the weather chat for a few, private matter.
Member Since: October 8, 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4553
799. TampaSpin
1:43 PM GMT on October 23, 2009
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
The only real tangible thing right now is that sheer is very high, as of this morning per CIMSS, around the AOI and in the Gulf and Caribbean.


That and DRy air...No way anything develops in those conditions......until things change....NO WAY!....i guess im a downcaster.....LOL
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
798. weathermanwannabe
1:40 PM GMT on October 23, 2009
The only real tangible thing right now is that sheer is very high, as of this morning per CIMSS, around the AOI and in the Gulf and Caribbean.
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9321
797. Grothar
1:40 PM GMT on October 23, 2009
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
BTW, anyone know where StormW was yesterday ? Don't remember seeing anything posted by him.


yeah, and by the way, I didn't notice tornadodude either! Hope he didn't get banned for his little faux pas the other day. It was just a mistake.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26821
796. Grothar
1:36 PM GMT on October 23, 2009
Quoting CycloneBoz:


I've asked penscoladoug if he'd record this song for us.

I hope he says yes, then we can make a video.


Now I am really confused, are you CycloneOz or CycloneBoz. Hey, I'd watch the video. I am musically talented, too in a way. I know how to burn the discs. lol. Really good stuff you do, though.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26821
795. stormwatcherCI
1:36 PM GMT on October 23, 2009
Quoting centralflaman:
TIll the system is completely gone or develops no one is right! It will be another 5-7 days most likely before the final outcome of this system.
Exactly.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8422
794. stormwatcherCI
1:35 PM GMT on October 23, 2009
BTW, anyone know where StormW was yesterday ? Don't remember seeing anything posted by him.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8422
793. centralflaman
1:34 PM GMT on October 23, 2009
TIll the system is completely gone or develops no one is right! It will be another 5-7 days most likely before the final outcome of this system.
Member Since: October 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 63
792. capeflorida
1:33 PM GMT on October 23, 2009
Quoting reedzone:
Also guys think of this.. The downcasters may have one the battle, but Mother Nature will always win the war. Peoples minds cannot compete with Mother Nature.


Man you need some help! You are taking this way personal. This is just a weather blog and people give their opinions.
It seems to me you only get on here to call for development whenever an AOI is posted, then you disappear when it doesn't turn out the way you thought.
This isn"t about who win or looses!!!
Member Since: October 21, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 46
791. Grothar
1:30 PM GMT on October 23, 2009
Quoting reedzone:
First off, there is still a chance for development next week as conditions get better in the Western Carribean. Downcasters need to really stop what they're doing and look in the reality of things.


I can wait.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26821
790. tornadofan
1:30 PM GMT on October 23, 2009
Quoting beell:
downcasters won
wishcasters lost
forecasters keep on forecasting


Round 1 goes to the wise man from Texas.
Member Since: April 5, 2007 Posts: 83 Comments: 12345
789. beell
1:27 PM GMT on October 23, 2009
downcasters won
wishcasters lost
forecasters keep on forecasting
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 144 Comments: 16862
788. CycloneBoz
1:23 PM GMT on October 23, 2009
Quoting Grothar:


OK CycloneOZ, you can tell us now, who are you really, David Foster or Bob Dylan? Nobody can come up with theses unless they're a pro!! They are really good.


I've asked penscoladoug if he'd record this song for us.

I hope he says yes, then we can make a video.
Member Since: August 18, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 217
786. reedzone
1:20 PM GMT on October 23, 2009
Also guys think of this.. The downcasters may have one the battle, but Mother Nature will always win the war. Peoples minds cannot compete with Mother Nature.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7416
785. TampaSpin
1:20 PM GMT on October 23, 2009
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:
well looks like the down-casters won this one, but in all honesty even a stopped watch is right twice a day

It is really easy to come on here and just pound it into everyone's' minds that a storm will not develop; the really good people on here analyze things and give you a reason why.

Most down-casters do not give any reason

anyway have a good day folks


So typical of you!
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
784. Grothar
1:19 PM GMT on October 23, 2009
Quoting stormpetrol:
Looks like the NHC dropped the SW caribbean area and consolidated the whole area from the Bahamas to the south of Jamaica, I still think the SW caribbean is the best bet, a complex system though, I wouldn't write it off completely & plus convection is firing again, jmo.


I ,for one, will still watch it. These things can take a while to get going. Ahhh!, another "wait and see" system. Just like the economy, wax, wane, and fizzle then expode.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26821
783. reedzone
1:16 PM GMT on October 23, 2009
First off, there is still a chance for development next week as conditions get better in the Western Carribean. Downcasters need to really stop what they're doing and look in the reality of things.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7416
782. weathermanwannabe
1:06 PM GMT on October 23, 2009
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:
well looks like the down-casters won this one, but in all honesty even a stopped watch is right twice a day

It is really easy to come on here and just pound it into everyone's' minds that a storm will not develop; the really good people on here analyze things and give you a reason why.

Most down-casters do not give any reason

anyway have a good day folks


You need to chill a little......You alway have a tendancy to focus on the negative and are quick to jump on folks....No need to go there so early in the morning. :)
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9321
781. stormwatcherCI
1:02 PM GMT on October 23, 2009
Quoting stormpetrol:
Looks like the NHC dropped the SW caribbean area and consolidated the whole area from the Bahamas to the south of Jamaica, I still think the SW caribbean is the best bet, a complex system though, I wouldn't write it off completely & plus convection is firing again, jmo.
I am going to still make sure to continue to monitor it.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8422
780. Grothar
1:01 PM GMT on October 23, 2009
Quoting CycloneOz:
The Year of the Shear
sung to the tune of "The Year of the Cat"

On the morning of six one oh nine
In a country where the mets are fine
They saw El Nino freakin' like Peter Lore
Contemplating a crime

Storms came out of the sun from off Africa running
Generating a lot of rain
Bloggers asking for explanations
Why the canes never came
In the year of the shear.

Doc Masters answered all the questions
As storm after storm appeared
And we followed each one closely...would they get through this time?
But each completely disappeared

By the blue tiled walls of the NHC stalls
There's a hidden door they'll show you to
These days, they're lounging and eating donuts
Like a cop in Timbucktoo...
The year of the shear

Well, the shear it does its work so cooly
Doesn't matter that the sun's on the sea
The sheer's relentless like a spring bee
MJO? What the heck does it mean?
The year of the shear

Mornings pass and shear's still out there
And most of the bloggers are gone
And you've thrown away your life and lost your marriage
So you have to stay on

But the drum-beat strains of El Nino remains
In the rhythm of the new-born day
You know sometime there's bound to be one
But for now they stay away
In the year of the shear


OK CycloneOZ, you can tell us now, who are you really, David Foster or Bob Dylan? Nobody can come up with theses unless they're a pro!! They are really good.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26821
779. stormpetrol
12:58 PM GMT on October 23, 2009
Looks like the NHC dropped the SW caribbean area and consolidated the whole area from the Bahamas to the south of Jamaica, I still think the SW caribbean is the best bet, a complex system though, I wouldn't write it off completely & plus convection is firing again, jmo.
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7986
778. BurnedAfterPosting
12:55 PM GMT on October 23, 2009
well looks like the down-casters won this one, but in all honesty even a stopped watch is right twice a day

It is really easy to come on here and just pound it into everyone's' minds that a storm will not develop; the really good people on here analyze things and give you a reason why.

Most down-casters do not give any reason

anyway have a good day folks
777. MahFL
12:45 PM GMT on October 23, 2009
Our met said the front would split and fizzle out over NE FL.
Member Since: June 9, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 3685
776. MahFL
12:45 PM GMT on October 23, 2009
Note Accu says "might" "little"...anyone could could say that and be right.
Member Since: June 9, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 3685
775. weathermanwannabe
12:42 PM GMT on October 23, 2009
Good Morning. Things really quieted down in the Caribbean overnight. Having a little trouble however understanding how the area around the Bahamas is supposed to slowly drift towards Florida with another frontal trof headed west from the Gulf. Seems to me that the Bahmamas area would be cleared out as the front approaches.
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9321
774. stormwatcherCI
12:28 PM GMT on October 23, 2009
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8422
773. stormwatcherCI
12:25 PM GMT on October 23, 2009













More on the Tropical Atlantic
Updated: Friday, October 23, 2009 8:05 AM

There are now two trouble spots to keep an eye on in the tropical Atlantic, one in the Bahamas and the other in the southwestern Caribbean.


The disturbed area in the Bahamas could become a little better organized during the next 24 hours then take a run at the Southeast coast this weekend. The chance of this ever becoming something really significant is very low.


Meanwhile, the low pressure system in the western Caribbean has been milling around all week, but might start a slow northward drift over the weekend. This disturbance probably has a little better chance of becoming a named tropical storm, but that wouldn't happen until late in the weekend or early next week.


Forecast By AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist John Kocet.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8422
772. PSL2007
12:20 PM GMT on October 23, 2009
Quoting CycloneOz:
The Year of the Shear
sung to the tune of "The Year of the Cat"

On the morning of six one oh nine
In a country where the mets are fine
They saw El Nino freakin' like Peter Lore
Contemplating a crime

Storms came out of the sun from off Africa running
Generating a lot of rain
Bloggers asking for explanations
Why the canes never came
In the year of the shear.

Doc Masters answered all the questions
As storm after storm appeared
And we followed each one closely...would they get through this time?
But each completely disappeared

By the blue tiled walls of the NHC stalls
There's a hidden door they'll show you to
These days, they're lounging and eating donuts
Like a cop in Timbucktoo...
The year of the shear

Well, the shear it does its work so cooly
Doesn't matter that the sun's on the sea
The sheer's relentless like a spring bee
MJO? What the heck does it mean?
The year of the shear

Mornings pass and shear's still out there
And most of the bloggers are gone
And you've thrown away your life and lost your marriage
So you have to stay on

But the drum-beat strains of El Nino remains
In the rhythm of the new-born day
You know sometime there's bound to be one
But for now they stay away
In the year of the shear



This has got to be the most memorable hit of the season. Thank you for making my day....again!
771. CycloneOz
12:10 PM GMT on October 23, 2009
The Year of the Shear
sung to the tune of "The Year of the Cat"

On the morning of six one oh nine
In a country where the mets are fine
They saw El Nino freakin' like Peter Lore
Contemplating a crime

Storms came out of the sun from off Africa running
Generating a lot of rain
Bloggers asking for explanations
Why the canes never came
In the year of the shear.

Doc Masters answered all the questions
As storm after storm appeared
And we followed each one closely...would they get through this time?
But each completely disappeared

By the blue tiled walls of the NHC stalls
There's a hidden door they'll show you to
These days, they're lounging and eating donuts
Like a cop in Timbucktoo...
The year of the shear

Well, the shear it does its work so cooly
Doesn't matter that the sun's on the sea
The sheer's relentless like a spring bee
MJO? What the heck does it mean?
The year of the shear

Mornings pass and shear's still out there
And most of the bloggers are gone
And you've thrown away your life and lost your marriage
So you have to stay on

But the drum-beat strains of El Nino remains
In the rhythm of the new-born day
You know sometime there's bound to be one
But for now they stay away
In the year of the shear
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 3887
770. stormsurge39
12:00 PM GMT on October 23, 2009
Quoting IKE:


Here are the latest models....

00Z CMC.


6Z GFS.


6Z UKMET.


00Z NOGAPS.


00Z ECMWF.
looks like what 456 said, GFS/CMC support a tropical storm in the SE GOM towards the end of the run.
769. stormwatcherCI
12:00 PM GMT on October 23, 2009


Since the NHC has the yellow circle extending south of Jamaica maybe there is a slight possibility of development in the area TampaSpin forecasted.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8422
768. stormsurge39
11:54 AM GMT on October 23, 2009
Quoting centralflaman:



don`t two models develop it once in the gulf?
Just because the NHC drops an AOI, does not mean models stop. There could be no color and then a color! IMO we shouldnt always get comfortable when the NHC drops a color because it could change back quickly!
767. IKE
11:53 AM GMT on October 23, 2009
Quoting centralflaman:



don`t two models develop it once in the gulf?


Here are the latest models....

00Z CMC.


6Z GFS.


6Z UKMET.


00Z NOGAPS.


00Z ECMWF.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
766. 19N81W
11:52 AM GMT on October 23, 2009
it is amazing what can happen overnight! I dont think this scenario is any better for Cayman?
Member Since: August 24, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 436
765. stormwatcherCI
11:48 AM GMT on October 23, 2009
Quoting IKE:


NHC has. It has no model support.
I understand but I am looking at the conditions and you know that constantly changes(models).
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8422
764. centralflaman
11:47 AM GMT on October 23, 2009
Quoting IKE:


NHC has. It has no model support.



don`t two models develop it once in the gulf?
Member Since: October 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 63
763. IKE
11:38 AM GMT on October 23, 2009
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I don't know if I would give up on it yet though. All that moisture to the east and to the west.


NHC has. It has no model support.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
762. stormwatcherCI
11:37 AM GMT on October 23, 2009
Quoting IKE:
NHC has stopped mentioning the western Caribbean disturbance....



TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI OCT 23 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN CUBA AND PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS ARE
PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH. THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA




I don't know if I would give up on it yet though. All that moisture to the east and to the west.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8422

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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