Tropical Storm Ida a major flood threat for Nicaragua and Honduras

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:33 PM GMT on November 04, 2009

Share this Blog
2
+

Tropical Storm Ida has arrived, the ninth named storm of the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season. Visible satellite loops show that Ida continues to steadily organize, with surface spiral banding and upper-level outflow now obvious over the northern portion of the storm. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft is in the storm, and found a large area of surface winds in the 45 - 50 mph range, with a smaller area of 60 mph winds, prompting NHC to upgrade the storm.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Ida.

Ida is currently under low wind shear, 5 - 10 knots, and shear is expected to remain in the low to moderate range in the Western Caribbean for the remainder of the week. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are 29°C and the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential is about 40 kJ/cm^2, which is enough energy for a hurricane to form, if the center remains over water long enough. The Western Caribbean is plenty moist, and dry air is not an issue for Ida. Ida is currently too small to be affected by tropical disturbance (Invest 96E) 500 miles to its west, over the Eastern Pacific.

The forecast for Ida
The 1 - 3 day forecast for Ida has come into better focus now that the storm has formed, and models have come into better agreement. The current west to northwesterly motion of Ida should carry it inland over northeastern Nicaragua early Thursday morning. Ida is too small to tap the Pacific as a source of moisture, and it is just the northeastern portions of Nicaragua and Honduras that need to be concerned with heavy rains and mudslides. With Ida expected to spend a full two days over land, rainfall amounts of 10 - 15 inches over northeastern Nicaragua and Honduras will likely make Ida the deadliest storm of the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season. There is a medium chance (30 - 50%) that Ida will dissipate while over land. If Ida survives the crossing and emerges into the Western Caribbean on Saturday, low to moderate wind shear and warm waters await it, and strengthening is likely. An extratropical storm is forecast by GFS and ECMWF models to form in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche on Saturday, and the counter-clockwise flow of air around this storm may propel Ida northwards into the Gulf of Mexico by Monday. However, both of these models show a high pressure ridge building in and forcing Ida southwards, back into the Caribbean, by the middle of next week. The long term fate of Ida, should it survive the crossing of Nicaragua and Honduras, remains murky.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 969 - 919

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26Blog Index

Quoting 954FtLCane:

IMO the season was over... oh well serving up myself a nice plate of crow omelet right now


Do you serve white or red with that.
just having fun
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
be back in a while gotta carry the mrs to work ,later.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
965. IKE
Quoting 954FtLCane:

IMO the season was over... oh well serving up myself a nice plate of crow omelet right now


No shame in being wrong. I could care less if I'm wrong and don't mind admitting it.

I don't do this for a living. Simply a hobby.

How's that crow? Mine is pretty good with A1 sauce on it.



Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
AL 11 2009110512 BEST 0 129N 836W 65 987 HU


I said 12.8N and 83.7W. Not too far off.

Interesting...those coordinates are inland.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
With a pressure of 987MB... is should now be feeling more the weakness to its N:

Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4945
Good morning.I see we have Hurricane Ida, I see the bulk of the convection has moved northward , i suspect that Ida is making that NNW/N turn and will be following the bulk of convection. I think it will either barely go onshore or just skirt coast, anyhow we'll see.
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7711
Good morning IDA

Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5998
AL 11 2009110512 BEST 0 129N 836W 65 987 HU
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Weather456:


no where to be found, the blog has been so peaceful over the last day or two. I wish it could be like this all the time.

IMO the season was over... oh well serving up myself a nice plate of crow omelet right now
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I could be wrong of course... but I'm not really expecting Ida to me moving too far inland. I mentioned yesterday that I expected her to hug the Nicaraguan coast line, I'm still sticking to it. I believe Ida is more now on a NNW to N track.

Then again HURR have a mind of their own.
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4945
Quoting IKE:
How can it be moving NW at 7 when the new coordinates are the same as the one's 3 hours ago?


You have to look at how NHC defines Present Movement:

The best estimate of the movement of the center of a tropical cyclone at a given time and given position. This estimate does not reflect the short-period, small scale oscillations of the cyclone center.

Now how they define "short-period" is the question, but I think it would include a 3 hour timeframe.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting P451:


Funny, I just had to edit my post, because I saw she was still a TS which had surprised me, and now I see she is indeed a Hurricane.



well look at my post around 4am-5am (my time) this morning, it had to be hurricane.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
I see that the center is still over water you can see on the JSL sat.
Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
All of the "season is over" folks are having Crow for breakfast.


no where to be found, the blog has been so peaceful over the last day or two. I wish it could be like this all the time.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
We have Hurricane Ida

good call
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Good morning...

As expected from Ida by remaining over water a bit longer it has now gained HUR Status.

7:45HR to go before next HHunter, that's if they don't decide to go in sooner.
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4945
948. OGal
Morning all, we now have hurricane Ida. Makes my day :(
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
looks like there is a tendancy on movement off the coast slightly.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
946. IKE
Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
IKE , you are correct i am confused what is that report could it be a cp or was there an actual reading ????


Doesn't make sense.

Now, if they said it had temporarily gone stationary but was expected to resume a NW track, I could understand.

Then again it's the NHC. Looks further west to me and the cloud tops have warmed in the past few hours.

Their the experts and I'm just a blogger, so props to Ida.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Is it just me or is the BOC blob spinning?

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
944. IKE
Brings the total for the season to 9-3-2.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
IKE , you are correct i am confused what is that report could it be a cp or was there an actual reading ????
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
942. IKE
Here's a visible on it....

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
All of the "season is over" folks are having Crow for breakfast.
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5998
939. IKE
How can it be moving NW at 7 when the new coordinates are the same as the one's 3 hours ago?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
well that explains it ,thats why inter-action with land has not broken her back that much, be carefull roatandergardener.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
HURRICANE IDA - Every Hurricane so far this year became a major hurricane will this follow the pattern?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
We now have Hurricane IDA
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
HURRICANE IDA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
700 AM EST THU NOV 05 2009

...IDA BECOMES A HURRICANE AS IT NEARS THE COAST OF NICARAGUA...

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT IDA HAS STRENGTHENED TO A
HURRICANE.

AT 700 AM...1200 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF NICARAGUA HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE EAST COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM BLUEFIELDS
NORTHWARD TO PUERTO CABEZAS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF
NICARAGUA FROM NORTH OF PUERTO CABEZAS TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA
BORDER. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NICARAGUA/COSTA
RICA BORDER NORTHWARD TO BLUEFIELDS AND FROM NORTH OF PUERTO
CABEZAS TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 700 AM EST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IDA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 12.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.4 WEST OR ABOUT 60
MILES...100 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA AND ABOUT
85 MILES...135 KM...SOUTH OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA.

IDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR...AND A
GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...IDA WILL MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF
NICARAGUA THIS MORNING AND MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN
NICARAGUA AND EASTERN HONDURAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IDA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE SCALE. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS IDA MOVES INLAND OVER
NICARAGUA TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.

IDA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 7
INCHES OVER THE ISLANDS OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA WITH MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 15 TO 20
INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER EASTERN NICARAGUA AND EASTERN HONDURAS
WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 25 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOOD AND MUD SLIDES.

A STORM SURGE COULD RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3 FEET ABOVE
GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF NICARAGUA...WITH LARGE AND
DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE
CENTER OF IDA MAKES LANDFALL. WATER LEVELS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE
LATER TODAY.

...SUMMARY OF 700 AM EST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...12.8N 83.4W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1000 AM EST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/BROWN/BLAKE



Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5998
933. IKE
...IDA BECOMES A HURRICANE AS IT NEARS THE COAST OF NICARAGUA...
7:00 AM EST Thu Nov 5
Location: 12.8°N 83.4°W
Max sustained: 75 mph
Moving: NW at 7 mph
Min pressure: 987 mb
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BahaHurican:
Also, don't we have a couple of bloggers from the islands N of Honduras? Hope we can hear from them about conditions today.....



I'm here. checked in a few times yesterday. woke up this morning to some strong showers but very still. no wind. we have had an extremely dry summer and early fall.

there were many comments yesterday about the mountains... there are no high mountains on the edge of nica with honduras, its all plains. the mountains start way further to the west. so nothing to hamper ida's progression thru the corner of nica/hond.

ill be here all day checking in. looks like a large band will mover over us in about 3 hours. rg
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
leftovers - thanks. I love that they keep saying we are protected, but don't like how confident they are, just in case things change.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:
6Z HWRF on Ida.


6Z GFDL on Ida.


Each has been consistent, but different.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I wonder what the update will say this morning. Do you think they will be moving the track east?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
COC just brushing coast now
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MahFL:
129 knots ? holy cow.


It was 150 kt in an earlier run.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
So, does it appear that High will protect Florida and keep Ida in the central GOM? Our local forecasters are confident on this High staying there and keeping anything away.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:
6Z HWRF on Ida.


6Z GFDL on Ida.


GFDL is determined to do some serious harm to someone! HWRF has trended to the east.

This is going to be interesting over the next several days!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
922. MahFL
129 knots ? holy cow.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
HMMMPH......
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
920. IKE
6Z HWRF on Ida.


6Z GFDL on Ida.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormW:
Synoptic Time Latitude Longitude Intensity
200911050600 12.6 -83.3 55
200911050000 12.3 -82.8 55
200911041800 11.8 -82.3 45
200911041200 11.5 -81.9 30


Storm...Ida will be north of the forecast points. Do you agree?
Member Since: September 7, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 703

Viewing: 969 - 919

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Mostly Cloudy
77 °F
Mostly Cloudy