Tropical Storm Ida a major flood threat for Nicaragua and Honduras
Tropical Storm Ida has arrived, the ninth named storm of the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season. Visible satellite loops show that Ida continues to steadily organize, with surface spiral banding and upper-level outflow now obvious over the northern portion of the storm. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft is in the storm, and found a large area of surface winds in the 45 - 50 mph range, with a smaller area of 60 mph winds, prompting NHC to upgrade the storm.
Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Ida.
Ida is currently under low wind shear, 5 - 10 knots, and shear is expected to remain in the low to moderate range in the Western Caribbean for the remainder of the week. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are 29°C and the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential is about 40 kJ/cm^2, which is enough energy for a hurricane to form, if the center remains over water long enough. The Western Caribbean is plenty moist, and dry air is not an issue for Ida. Ida is currently too small to be affected by tropical disturbance (Invest 96E) 500 miles to its west, over the Eastern Pacific.
The forecast for Ida
The 1 - 3 day forecast for Ida has come into better focus now that the storm has formed, and models have come into better agreement. The current west to northwesterly motion of Ida should carry it inland over northeastern Nicaragua early Thursday morning. Ida is too small to tap the Pacific as a source of moisture, and it is just the northeastern portions of Nicaragua and Honduras that need to be concerned with heavy rains and mudslides. With Ida expected to spend a full two days over land, rainfall amounts of 10 - 15 inches over northeastern Nicaragua and Honduras will likely make Ida the deadliest storm of the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season. There is a medium chance (30 - 50%) that Ida will dissipate while over land. If Ida survives the crossing and emerges into the Western Caribbean on Saturday, low to moderate wind shear and warm waters await it, and strengthening is likely. An extratropical storm is forecast by GFS and ECMWF models to form in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche on Saturday, and the counter-clockwise flow of air around this storm may propel Ida northwards into the Gulf of Mexico by Monday. However, both of these models show a high pressure ridge building in and forcing Ida southwards, back into the Caribbean, by the middle of next week. The long term fate of Ida, should it survive the crossing of Nicaragua and Honduras, remains murky.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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While that is true, the GFDL went from taking this thing well inland to keeping it off-shore and intensifying dangerously. I'm sure this change in the GFDL track is associated with the recent strengthening of Ida.
Yep. Hot off the presses.
That computer model is way off, in my opinion
And something tells me that's more North than West. We'll see...
LOCATION...12.2N 82.9W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 6 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1000 PM EST.
sometimes you can tell where a storm is going by looking the banding features. Usually a westward moving storm like Dean had intense banding feature just west of it. Re-curving storms like Bertha have some convective bands on the NW facing sides.
With Ida the convective band covers between NW and N so it might foretell where Ida is going. It is one of those rule of thumbs that is useful but never always right.
Can you convert the last six images of this loop to one of your great moving image posts?
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/4kmirimg_loop.asp?storm_identifier=AL112009&st arting_image=2009AL11_4KMIRIMG_200908211130.GIF
456, I agree, the convective pattern can give the clue of future movement regardless of it's present direction
Indeed... also note that its motion has slowed some. If it continues to be on the water and strengthen further then a more N component is likely to materialize sooner.
hmmm,
that image is 1700 UTC 3 November.
Agree.
Are you thinking it may just ride along the coastline?
That or comes in it at higher angle.
The right forward band of convection maybe a sign of where Ida wants to go.
I've heard DR.Lyons make reference to this same thing with several storms/hurricanes also.
I'd like to ask, as you are a preofessional meteorologist, what do you think about the recent cooling of Ida's cloud tops over the last 2 hours? Do you think that intensification is ocurring?
these convective bands are also sign of continued intensification since the area ahead is favorable for convective development.
Ida sure is doing here thing tonight though.
Impressive for sure.
Look at the storm motion on this loop:
Link
professional is strong term. I'm a forecaster as of 2009.
Systems like these will wax and wane but is the trend of organization which showed be noted. You describe Ida has holding steady with room for continued strengthening.
I always get tornado warnings here in southeast Florida yet I never see a tornado.
If you are seeing the same thing, the storm is slowing and moving more north than west.
In reference to high angle meaning, instead of NW, it may just skirt the coast in a NNW heading.
Link
Exactly.
I'd wait to see a trend or a definite deviation from the current heading as those near COC Up Pulses at Night,well..can make one see what you want,sometimes.
But a trend to stay just offshore would show up on the next track update by the NHC.
Till then,..we watch and observe as per usual.
and the shape of Central America in that area makes clear cut decisions
...SUMMARY OF 700 PM EST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...12.2N 82.9W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 6 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB
Viewing: 301 - 351
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