Hurricane Ida hits Nicaragua
Hurricane Ida intensified at one of the fastest rates on record, and plowed ashore this morning in central Nicaragua as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. It took just 24 hours from when the first advisory was issued for Tropical Depression Eleven until Ida reached hurricane strength. Since reliable satellite measurements began in 1970, Hurricane Humberto holds the record for fastest intensification from first advisory issued to hurricane strength--18 hours. (Actually, Humberto did the feat in 14 1/4 hours, but this was rounded off to 18 hours in the final data base, which stores points every six hours). There have been six storms that accomplished the feat in 24 hours--Hurricane Florence of 2000, Hurricane Erin of 1995, Hurricane Bonnie of 1992, Hurricane Earl of 1986, Hurricane Kate of 1985, and Hurricane Kendra of 1978. Ida now joins that short list of rapidly intensifying storms.
Ida will dump very heavy rains of 10 - 15 inches over northern Nicaragua and northeastern Honduras over the next two days, which will likely make it the deadliest storm of the 2009 hurricane season. However, Ida is a relatively small storm, and has not tapped the Pacific Ocean as a source of moisture. I think the NHC forecast of 15 - 20 inches of rain is overdone. The greatest rainfall disasters in Honduras history--caused by Hurricane Fifi of 1974 and Hurricane Mitch of 1998--were caused because these were large storms that were able to pull in moisture from both the Atlantic and Pacific. Ida will not approach these disasters in magnitude.
Figure 1. Microwave "weather radar in space" image of Ida at landfall this morning, at 6:17 am EST. Image credit Navy Research Lab, Monterey.
The forecast for Ida
Ida will likely spend a full two days over Nicaragua and Honduras, and there is a chance that Ida will dissipate. The HWRF and ECMWF don't show much surviving of Ida after crossing into the Western Caribbean. However, the other models like Ida's chances of surviving, and it is the case that the storm's core will be tracking over relatively low elevation land (Figure 2), increasing the chances that Ida can survive the crossing intact. If Ida survives the crossing and emerges into the Western Caribbean on Saturday, moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots and warm waters await it, and some modest strengthening is likely. A trough of low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico this weekend should be able to propel Ida northwards into the Gulf of Mexico. The long-term fate of Ida if it reaches the Gulf of Mexico is hard to guess at this point, though the odds are against Ida hitting the U.S. as a hurricane, due to high wind shear.
Figure 2. Projected track from the 10am EST NHC advisory from Thursday, 11/05/09, overlaid on a topographical map of Central America. Image credit: Wikipedia.
Looking at the past to predict the future
Perhaps the best way to estimate the chances of Ida surviving the crossing of Nicaragua and Honduras is to look at past storms that have followed similar tracks, to see if they dissipated or not. History favors Ida surviving the crossing. The two best analogue storms occurred in 1906 and 1908. Hurricane Eight of October 10, 1906, hit Nicaragua as a Category 3 hurricane, spent two days over land, weakening to a tropical storm, then emerged into the Western Caribbean and re-intensified into a Category 3 hurricane that hit Cuba and South Florida. On the other hand, Hurricane Nine of October 18, 1908, which hit Nicaragua as a Category 2 hurricane, dissipated after spending 1.5 days over land. Three other weaker systems have followed paths similar to Ida's, and all survived the crossing and re-intensified once over the Western Caribbean. Tropical Storm Gert of 1993 hit as a 40 mph tropical storm, spent two days over land, and survived to re-intensify to a tropical storm before hitting the Yucatan Peninsula. Hurricane Alma of June 1996 hit Nicaragua as a tropical depression, spent two days over land, and survived. Alma later intensified into a major Category 3 hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. Tropical Storm Six of 1940 hit Nicaragua as a 45 mph tropical storm, spent 1.5 days over land, and survived the crossing. So, of the five storms to follow a path similar to Ida's projected path, four survived to re-intensify over the Western Caribbean.
I'll have an update Friday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Sir, thank you for your own and your family's service...above and beyond.
WWll is a good person, too, and certainly helped me out with some info the other day.
We are all sad...anger is just a cover for two other emotions, loss and fear -- which we've experienced yet again today.
God bless you both. Peace.
Life ain't easy for guy named "Fred", just joking :)
:)
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
700 PM EST THU NOV 05 2009
...IDA NOW BARELY A TROPICAL STORM...HEAVY RAINFALL STILL THE
PRIMARY CONCERN...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF
NICARAGUA FROM BLUEFIELDS NORTHWARD TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA
BORDER.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEAST COAST OF
HONDURAS FROM LIMON EASTWARD TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN HONDURAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IDA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 700 PM EST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IDA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.0 WEST OR ABOUT 55
MILES...85 KM...SOUTHWEST OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA.
IDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT OR FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IDA WILL
MOVE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA AND EASTERN HONDURAS DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO EMERGE OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA EARLY SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED...AND
IDA WILL LIKELY WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TONIGHT. SOME
RESTRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE AFTER IDA EMERGES OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ON SATURDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.
IDA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 7
INCHES ALONG THE COASTS OF EASTERN HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA...AND THE
ISLANDS OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12
INCHES POSSIBLE. MAXIMUM RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 15 TO 20 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE OVER REGIONS OF ELEVATED TERRAIN IN HONDURAS AND
NICARAGUA. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES.
...SUMMARY OF 700 PM EST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...13.5N 84.0W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 5 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1000 PM EST.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS
LOL.....to my embarressment it is fixed on my site.....LOL
Actually i do have something extra in the Cool Aid.......LOL
There goes IDA off the NORTH EAST coast already....oh no that FRED also!
(taking the bait)
Why??
Link
You can see the possible kicker of IDA in S. California going through Nevada....
It was suppose to be at 40 knots at 06z.
Lots of moisture in the Southern Gulf / Bay of Campeche area. I've been busy today and I haven't seen the latest model runs about this area. However, I did note in his analysis on the blog earlier today that Dr. Masters did not make any mention of the BOC disturbance. I still think that this area will definitely be a factor in the coming days with moisture pulling northward from this system along the Upper Gulf Coast region. Also, the BOC disturbance could definitely play a significant role with the future progress of Ida later this weekend.
Actually Ida is to the left of the forecast cone. Remember they don't change track in the intermediate advisories just position.
I actually wouldn't be surprised if it degenerate into a remnant low over land. Dunno about dissipation though.
That and the fact that it will be covering more land I think in 36 hours the season could be nearly over. Thank goodness... but I shall keep an eye for now.
I expect there may be a chance of it returning but it might be a remnant low once it reaches the sea late Friday early sat.
btw i was partially kidding, I don't expect to die . Central America is notorious for not putting weak storms away, just weakening till their weak, they slowly chocking them away... REALLY SLOWLY, slow enough that it doesn't finish the job.
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED...AND
IDA WILL LIKELY WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TONIGHT. SOME
RESTRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE AFTER IDA EMERGES OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ON SATURDAY.
That's obvious he's never been in a hurricane well I want it to because we need the rain here in the bay area. Nov. is one of our driest months of the year.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
350 PM CST THU NOV 5 2009
OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...A FAIRLY INTENSE
UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SW U.S. AND MOVE ENE
OVER N MEXICO/TX OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL GRADUALLY BRING A
WEAK SFC LOW/TROF NORTHWARD OVER THE W GULF...INCREASING THE
CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA BY SUN INTO MON. THIS LOW WILL NOT BE
ASSOCIATED WITH IDA OR ITS REMNANTS...BUT A SEPARATE...EXTRATROPICAL
LIKELY...LOW GRADUALLY FORMING ACROSS THE W GULF THIS WEEKEND.
THIS SITUATION COULD SET UP A MINOR COASTAL FLOODING EVENT
ONCE THE MID/UPPER TROF AND SFC REFLECTION MOVES EAST BY LATE
TUE...THINGS GET COMPLICATED ACROSS THE GULF. IF IDA SURVIVES THE
TRIP OVER C AMERICA THE NEXT 36 HRS...ITS EXPECTED TO EMERGE IN
THE NW CARIBBEAN...AND MOVE ACROSS THE C/SE GULF AS A 50 MPH
STORM. DON`T EXPECT THIS TO HAVE ANY THREAT TO US TROPICALLY...AS
THE SHEAR WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO EITHER SHREAD THE SYSTEM NORTH
OF 25...OR COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSFORMATION. THE COMPILATION
ARISES AFTERWARDS...AS THE GFS/ECMWF HAS THE WEAKENING LOW JUST
MEANDERING ACROSS THE C GULF BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. WILL KEEP
THE SOLN OF NO PRECIP AND OFFSHORE FLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST.
This needs to be watched in one serious way...i'm really not concerned about IDA as what the combination of IDA and the cold front merging might bring.....i think that could be the real problem with some very very severe weather across the state....it could be real bad...I not trying to hype anything....just seeing what the possiblities might occur.
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