Ida survives its Central American crossing
Hurricane Ida rumbled ashore over eastern Nicaragua yesterday morning as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds--the first November Atlantic hurricane to make landfall in an El Niño year since 1925. Now just a tropical depression, Ida has crossed over into Honduras, dumping heavy rains of 6 - 10 inches along the coast of Nicaragua and northeast Honduras, according to satellite estimates. The rains have pretty much ended over Nicaragua, thanks to the collapse of Ida's heavy thunderstorm activity on the south side of the center. Thunderstorm activity is still strong to the north of the center, over coastal Honduras and the waters of the Western Caribbean. Satellite loops show that Ida still has a vigorous circulation, and with the center due to move offshore tonight, it is apparent that Ida will survive the crossing of Nicaragua and Honduras.
Figure 1. Tropical Storm Ida at 1 pm EST November 5, 2009. In this MODIS image captured seven hours after landfall, Ida was a tropical storm with 65 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.
The forecast for Ida
Ida will dump another 1 - 2 inches of rain over northeastern Honduras today. The Cayman Islands, Belize, and the rest of the Honduras coast can expect occasional heavy rains of 1 - 4 inches over the next two days as spiral bands from Ida bring squally weather. Much heavier rains of 4 - 8 inches are likely to affect Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and Western Cuba beginning Saturday, as Ida heads north towards the Yucatan Channel. Higher rain amounts may occur if Ida intensifies more than forecast.
Figure 2. Total heat content of the ocean (the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential, TCHP) for November 4, 2005 compared to November 4, 2009. TCHP values in excess of 80 - 90 kJ/cm^2 (yellow, orange, and red colors) are often associated with rapid intensification of hurricanes. This year has higher heat content in the Western Caribbean than the record-breaking Hurricane Season of 2005. The higher heat content this year is partially because we haven't had any tropical cyclone activity in the Western Caribbean, while 2005 had some record strong storms--particularly Hurricane Wilma--that churned up cold water from the depths. Image credit: NOAA/AOML.
Moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots and warm waters await await Ida when it emerges over the Western Caribbean tonight, and some modest strengthening is likely. It is a concern that Ida could reach Category 1 hurricane strength before it reaches the Yucatan, as the total heat content of the ocean in the Western Caribbean is very high this year (Figure 2). However, given Ida's current disorganized state and the presence of 15 - 20 knots of shear, the odds of the storm reaching hurricane strength before passing the Yucatan on Sunday night are probably low, less than 30%.
The current wind speed probabilities for Cozumel give the Mexican resort island a 26% chance of receiving tropical storm-force winds of 39 mph of higher, Sunday or Monday. I expect Ida will be a tropical storm with 45 - 65 mph winds as it passes Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and enters the Gulf of Mexico on Monday. Passage over the Yucatan or western Cuba may cause significant weakening. With the shear expected to increase to a high 20 - 30 knots once Ida reaches the Gulf of Mexico on Monday, and with cooler water temperatures there, landfall of Ida as a hurricane on the U.S. coast is unlikely. The long-term fate of Ida once it reaches the Gulf of Mexico is hard to guess at this point, with the models offering a wide range of solutions. While a landfall along the Gulf Coast of Florida is a good bet, the trough of low pressure pulling Ida to the north may speed eastwards fast enough to strand Ida in the Gulf, where it would be forced westwards or southwestwards away from Florida, eventually hitting Texas or Mexico, or simply dissipating in the Gulf due to high wind shear. I give Ida a 50% chance of eventually hitting the U.S. Gulf Coast.
I'll have an update Saturday morning, or this afternoon if there's some interesting development to report.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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That's what I am seeing too. Let's see if she can gain her convection and strengthen.
National Weather Service New Orleans la
350 am CST Friday Nov 6 2009
Marine...
gradient expected to tighten the next few days with Small Craft
Advisory conditions for both wind and seas likely by Saturday
afternoon and continuing into at least Tuesday...perhaps longer.
Have issued Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas for outer
coastal waters as seas appear to have reached 7 feet already beyond
20 nm. Buoy 42001 in middle-Gulf is at 10 feet with 8 second swell
train. The Small Craft Advisory will be expanded northward to the shore for 00z
Saturday /this evening/ and continue until further notice though an
upgrade to gale warnings may be warranted if low pressure system in
lower Gulf/Bay of Campeche region strengthens as models suggest.
Another complication would be re-emergence of T.D. Ida out of the
Caribbean into the lower Gulf near Yucatan Channel in coming days.
Clearly...the strong high pressure over land in the 1025mb range
slipping across a gradient to 1010mb or lower in the southern Gulf
would support 40 knots of gradient wind at some point Sunday and
possibly into Monday.
Regarding coastal flooding...confidence remains high that coastal
flooding of a moderate magnitude will result with some minor
inundation possible Saturday...increasing in depth with each
subsequent tide cycle Sunday through Tuesday. Will upgrade to
coastal Flood Watch with mention of 1 foot above normal
Saturday...2-3 feet above normal Sunday...3 feet above normal Monday
and possibly 4 feet above normal Tuesday morning before improving as
strong offshore flow onsets throughout the day Tuesday. A coastal
Flood Warning appears warranted at some point for Sunday and
Monday...which may be issued Saturday morning. 24/rr
That is 20 at 850mb which would be 25knots of wind shear. The storm, though has expanded.
the strong high pressure over land in the 1025mb range
slipping across a gradient to 1010mb or lower in the southern Gulf
would support 40 knots of gradient wind at some point Sunday and
possibly into Monday.
The gales of November!
(1:50 pm CST)
1950 GMT on 11/06/2009:
Unit of Measure: Time Zone:
Click on the graph icon in the table below to see a time series plot of the last five days of that observation.
5-day plot - Wind Direction Wind Direction (WDIR): ENE ( 70 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 21.4 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 25.3 kts
5-day plot - Wave Height Wave Height (WVHT): 9.2 ft
5-day plot - Dominant Wave Period Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 8 sec
5-day plot - Average Period Average Period (APD): 6.7 sec
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 30.06 in
5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure
Tendency (PTDY): -0.07 in ( Falling )
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 76.5 °F
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 80.8 °F
here is sfla... 4 bottle of "good" vodka, 4 limes and wait....
do you really think that ida could hit us?????
My apologies
Very educational post. Simple but important to determine wind shear without MOS data.
Station 42002 (LLNR 1405) - W GULF 207 NM East of Brownsville, TX
Conditions at 42002 as of
(1:50 pm CST)
1950 GMT on 11/06/2009:
Unit of Measure: Time Zone:
Click on the graph icon in the table below to see a time series plot of the last five days of that observation.
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 17.5 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 21.4 kts
5-day plot - Wave Height Wave Height (WVHT): 7.9 ft
5-day plot - Dominant Wave Period Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 8 sec
5-day plot - Average Period Average Period (APD): 5.8 sec
5-day plot - Mean Wave Direction Mean Wave Direction (MWD): ENE ( 78 deg true )
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 30.08 in
5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure
Tendency (PTDY): -0.07 in ( Falling )
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 77.0 °F
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water
Temperature (WTMP): 80.1 °F
Sheesh.
Whats a windsmurf?
For future reference. All caps is considered shouting in the cyber world. Apology accepted. I still write my invoices in all caps because my handwriting is atracious at best.
011L/TD/I
MARK
15.5N/84.5W
do you really think that ida could hit us?????
Naaw, a florida boy or girl for that matter knows four limes would never be enough for a hurricane!
(I bought a bag...just in case)
i'm going to your house with my good vodka
So?
I don't get how/why that image so messed up. The slug at the bottom says NOAA base imagery, Clouds: NERC Weather Station, Univ. of Dundee.
Someone drinkin' too much out of Islands' drink that was mentioned earlier.
Now I do see copyright of Inaccuweather on some other images...
So besides here, where DO you all get your info? Besides NOAA radios, of course. Are local radio/tv stations okay?
This guy?? Link
I've had him bookmarked since it happened. lol
That has always been my thoughts. 3-5 days out it never hits where the cone is pointing.
just lurking when I can and keeping on eye on this.
and several good bottles of wine........
Rainbow still
Very close to the TFP. Just east of it by .1 degree
Oh, that's an evil one.
I think it may be upgraded in a few hours.
Maybe just south of those points...closer to 16N.
Classic...
Yeah that's what I think too.
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