Ida survives its Central American crossing

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:04 PM GMT on November 06, 2009

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Hurricane Ida rumbled ashore over eastern Nicaragua yesterday morning as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds--the first November Atlantic hurricane to make landfall in an El NiƱo year since 1925. Now just a tropical depression, Ida has crossed over into Honduras, dumping heavy rains of 6 - 10 inches along the coast of Nicaragua and northeast Honduras, according to satellite estimates. The rains have pretty much ended over Nicaragua, thanks to the collapse of Ida's heavy thunderstorm activity on the south side of the center. Thunderstorm activity is still strong to the north of the center, over coastal Honduras and the waters of the Western Caribbean. Satellite loops show that Ida still has a vigorous circulation, and with the center due to move offshore tonight, it is apparent that Ida will survive the crossing of Nicaragua and Honduras.


Figure 1. Tropical Storm Ida at 1 pm EST November 5, 2009. In this MODIS image captured seven hours after landfall, Ida was a tropical storm with 65 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

The forecast for Ida
Ida will dump another 1 - 2 inches of rain over northeastern Honduras today. The Cayman Islands, Belize, and the rest of the Honduras coast can expect occasional heavy rains of 1 - 4 inches over the next two days as spiral bands from Ida bring squally weather. Much heavier rains of 4 - 8 inches are likely to affect Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and Western Cuba beginning Saturday, as Ida heads north towards the Yucatan Channel. Higher rain amounts may occur if Ida intensifies more than forecast.


Figure 2. Total heat content of the ocean (the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential, TCHP) for November 4, 2005 compared to November 4, 2009. TCHP values in excess of 80 - 90 kJ/cm^2 (yellow, orange, and red colors) are often associated with rapid intensification of hurricanes. This year has higher heat content in the Western Caribbean than the record-breaking Hurricane Season of 2005. The higher heat content this year is partially because we haven't had any tropical cyclone activity in the Western Caribbean, while 2005 had some record strong storms--particularly Hurricane Wilma--that churned up cold water from the depths. Image credit: NOAA/AOML.

Moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots and warm waters await await Ida when it emerges over the Western Caribbean tonight, and some modest strengthening is likely. It is a concern that Ida could reach Category 1 hurricane strength before it reaches the Yucatan, as the total heat content of the ocean in the Western Caribbean is very high this year (Figure 2). However, given Ida's current disorganized state and the presence of 15 - 20 knots of shear, the odds of the storm reaching hurricane strength before passing the Yucatan on Sunday night are probably low, less than 30%.

The current wind speed probabilities for Cozumel give the Mexican resort island a 26% chance of receiving tropical storm-force winds of 39 mph of higher, Sunday or Monday. I expect Ida will be a tropical storm with 45 - 65 mph winds as it passes Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and enters the Gulf of Mexico on Monday. Passage over the Yucatan or western Cuba may cause significant weakening. With the shear expected to increase to a high 20 - 30 knots once Ida reaches the Gulf of Mexico on Monday, and with cooler water temperatures there, landfall of Ida as a hurricane on the U.S. coast is unlikely. The long-term fate of Ida once it reaches the Gulf of Mexico is hard to guess at this point, with the models offering a wide range of solutions. While a landfall along the Gulf Coast of Florida is a good bet, the trough of low pressure pulling Ida to the north may speed eastwards fast enough to strand Ida in the Gulf, where it would be forced westwards or southwestwards away from Florida, eventually hitting Texas or Mexico, or simply dissipating in the Gulf due to high wind shear. I give Ida a 50% chance of eventually hitting the U.S. Gulf Coast.

I'll have an update Saturday morning, or this afternoon if there's some interesting development to report.

Jeff Masters

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The NHC is giving a very, very low probability for this cyclone to get above a Cat 1.
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I have a feeling that the scientists at the NHC are aware of the intensification that we have seen many times in the past with Caribbean storms....yet they're holding with keeping Ida as a medium tropical storm. And they know more than we do. Plus, they don't have sheep to distract them.
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Quoting NRAamy:
you know what's bad? using Portlight as your name WHEN YOU ARE REALLY A TROLL WHO HAS BEEN BANNED.....I would call that person a jerk...


i dont like him either, but now hes gone... stop talking crap and talk about the weather
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NRAmy...to the serious credit of the bloggers here...and the Admins...that didn't last long at all...
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Quoting Weather456:


possibly...Ida get further north before turning. I still cannot discount the effects the hybrid low might bring.
which are what?
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Quoting stormsurge39:
If it moves faster than forecasted, will that change the track?


possibly...Ida gets further north before turning. I still cannot discount the effects the hybrid low may influence on Ida.
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you know what's bad? using Portlight as your name WHEN YOU ARE REALLY A TROLL WHO HAS BEEN BANNED.....I would call that person a jerk...
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Quoting Weather456:


between the 10 and 11
If it moves faster than forecasted, will that change the track?
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Quoting stormsurge39:
456 what day is the front suppossed to come down in the GOM and shoot Ida off to the right?


between the 10 and 11
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Merger..In this forecast 96E is not in the merger and I am becoming skeptical that 96E will add much to anything.

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I think at the 10pm Ida will probably be upgraded to at least 50mph TS, could be 60mph.This thing is exploding the fastest I ever I seen a tropical system explode after just exiting the coastline.
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Remember the 1991 storm clearly,it was amazing the way all the ingredients came together just right.
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456 what day is the front suppossed to come down in the GOM and shoot Ida off to the right?
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Quoting presslord:
...blow-up sheep?!


Aren't those banned in several states?

NRAamy is a baaaaaaaad girl...
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10755
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


you guys are jerks...


Normally I would agree, but when you mess with fire you get burned. If you mess with the blog, you will regret it.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 2146
"Perfect Storm" is also referred to as the Halloween Storm up in the NE
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Quoting Drakoen:
GFS 18z showing a weak system that gets absorbed by the front.
thats wacky!! Drak
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GFS 18z showing a weak system that gets absorbed by the front.
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interesting... watching a tropical storm tonight with the heat on!

The National Weather Service
Wakefield, VA
5:03 pm EST, Fri., Nov. 6, 2009

... FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EST SATURDAY...

A FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EST SATURDAY.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMMINENT OR HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KILL CROPS AND OTHER SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

&&
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With a storm of this magnitude, the My Little Pony shower curtain will only protect you if you seal the edges carefully with Mighty Putty ($19.95 S&H) so the hurricane cannot get inside.
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Quoting Clearwater1:

Oh ok.
Does anyone recall a storm that blew through Tampa Bay, sometime in the early part 1992 or 03, that was dubbed the No Name Storm. Came off the gulf, with out warning, during the middle of the night. Did lot's of flood damage.


Storm of the Century
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011L/TD/I
convective refire detected

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Hurricane Ida

View of a ship grounded by Hurricane Ida in Corn Island, Nicaraguan Caribbean, November 5 2009. Hurricane Ida unleashed heavy winds and rain on thousands of residents of eastern Nicaragua Thursday, causing flooding and destroying homes, before being downgraded to a tropical storm.



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Going to be a long few days for us here in Fla.
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959. IKE
LOL...blow-up sheep.....

102 hour GFS....

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models wacky1
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theres 96E coming into the picute, and you can see 456 convection pop.

And... Here we go
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...blow-up sheep?!
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Almost all of the Models resist showing a land impact. Hope we do not have a stationary system churning up the GOM. I am more concerned about flooding at this point than wind damage.
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Quoting NRAamy:
929. indianrivguy 1:51 PM PST on November 06, 2009
Quoting NRAamy:
if I just surround myself in a My Little Pony shower curtain, will that be sufficient?


I heard that works for weather student :)



yeah, that and locking himself into his storm cellar, AKA the outhouse....

do you think he has a cot in there? Cable TV? blow-up sheep?


you guys are jerks...
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LOL

There is small area of convection just pop up near the center I am tempted to say this is the seed for convective explosion. But I dont want to sound too irrational.

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Quoting Patrap:


See post #931


Heres what I remember about the No Name Storm. Not much fun. But here is a link if anyone wants to read about what happened in TampaLink
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929. indianrivguy 1:51 PM PST on November 06, 2009
Quoting NRAamy:
if I just surround myself in a My Little Pony shower curtain, will that be sufficient?


I heard that works for weather student :)



yeah, that and locking himself into his storm cellar, AKA the outhouse....

do you think he has a cot in there? Cable TV? blow-up sheep?
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Quoting Clearwater1:
re post 918 The perfect storm. I remember, but correct me if I wrong. It was in april or may. Out of no where and with no warning from the weather service a flood causing storm pushed through Tampa Bay. I was there. Flooded me and thousands of others. Is this the "no named" storm of which you speak?


No the perfect storm was in October 31, 1991.
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Will a perfect storm be worse than a hurricane?
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Quoting StormW:
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA SPECIAL UPDATE NOVEMBER 06, 2009 ISSUED 4:45 P.M. EST


Great update, but I noticed you did not include anyone south of Tampa; do you not feel at this time it would go south of Tampa?
942. eddye
could this affect south fl
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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