Ida survives its Central American crossing
Hurricane Ida rumbled ashore over eastern Nicaragua yesterday morning as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds--the first November Atlantic hurricane to make landfall in an El Niño year since 1925. Now just a tropical depression, Ida has crossed over into Honduras, dumping heavy rains of 6 - 10 inches along the coast of Nicaragua and northeast Honduras, according to satellite estimates. The rains have pretty much ended over Nicaragua, thanks to the collapse of Ida's heavy thunderstorm activity on the south side of the center. Thunderstorm activity is still strong to the north of the center, over coastal Honduras and the waters of the Western Caribbean. Satellite loops show that Ida still has a vigorous circulation, and with the center due to move offshore tonight, it is apparent that Ida will survive the crossing of Nicaragua and Honduras.
Figure 1. Tropical Storm Ida at 1 pm EST November 5, 2009. In this MODIS image captured seven hours after landfall, Ida was a tropical storm with 65 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.
The forecast for Ida
Ida will dump another 1 - 2 inches of rain over northeastern Honduras today. The Cayman Islands, Belize, and the rest of the Honduras coast can expect occasional heavy rains of 1 - 4 inches over the next two days as spiral bands from Ida bring squally weather. Much heavier rains of 4 - 8 inches are likely to affect Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and Western Cuba beginning Saturday, as Ida heads north towards the Yucatan Channel. Higher rain amounts may occur if Ida intensifies more than forecast.
Figure 2. Total heat content of the ocean (the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential, TCHP) for November 4, 2005 compared to November 4, 2009. TCHP values in excess of 80 - 90 kJ/cm^2 (yellow, orange, and red colors) are often associated with rapid intensification of hurricanes. This year has higher heat content in the Western Caribbean than the record-breaking Hurricane Season of 2005. The higher heat content this year is partially because we haven't had any tropical cyclone activity in the Western Caribbean, while 2005 had some record strong storms--particularly Hurricane Wilma--that churned up cold water from the depths. Image credit: NOAA/AOML.
Moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots and warm waters await await Ida when it emerges over the Western Caribbean tonight, and some modest strengthening is likely. It is a concern that Ida could reach Category 1 hurricane strength before it reaches the Yucatan, as the total heat content of the ocean in the Western Caribbean is very high this year (Figure 2). However, given Ida's current disorganized state and the presence of 15 - 20 knots of shear, the odds of the storm reaching hurricane strength before passing the Yucatan on Sunday night are probably low, less than 30%.
The current wind speed probabilities for Cozumel give the Mexican resort island a 26% chance of receiving tropical storm-force winds of 39 mph of higher, Sunday or Monday. I expect Ida will be a tropical storm with 45 - 65 mph winds as it passes Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and enters the Gulf of Mexico on Monday. Passage over the Yucatan or western Cuba may cause significant weakening. With the shear expected to increase to a high 20 - 30 knots once Ida reaches the Gulf of Mexico on Monday, and with cooler water temperatures there, landfall of Ida as a hurricane on the U.S. coast is unlikely. The long-term fate of Ida once it reaches the Gulf of Mexico is hard to guess at this point, with the models offering a wide range of solutions. While a landfall along the Gulf Coast of Florida is a good bet, the trough of low pressure pulling Ida to the north may speed eastwards fast enough to strand Ida in the Gulf, where it would be forced westwards or southwestwards away from Florida, eventually hitting Texas or Mexico, or simply dissipating in the Gulf due to high wind shear. I give Ida a 50% chance of eventually hitting the U.S. Gulf Coast.
I'll have an update Saturday morning, or this afternoon if there's some interesting development to report.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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LOL ... Jacksonville isn't in the cone...hehehe
No requirement... the order is.. steer course 000
Absolutely, tropical storm or hurricane warnings are usually land based warnings refering to expected wind conditions from tropical systems. Gale warnings are usually issued for marine conditions from a tropical or subtropical system. Tropical ie warm core systems can transition into a subtropical or cold core system expanding the wind field farther from the core. The NoName storm was subtropical (noreaster) and delivered up to hurricane force winds to a large area from florida all the way up the east coast of the US. Warnings were very late since the storm came from nowhere very unexpectedly and a lot of mariners were caught off guard, it also damaged many coastal homes and properties. That was a great question. They would keep tropical or hurricane watches/warnings up on land even if Ida began a transition into a subtropical system as it approached as long as the wind conditions were expected.
Here is my Interactive LooP
Thanks.
# Compass point Abbr. Traditional wind point True heading
1 North N Tramontana 0.00°
2 North by east NbE 11.25°
3 North-northeast NNE 22.50°
4 Northeast by north NEbN 33.75°
5 Northeast NE Greco Bora 45.00°
6 Northeast by east NEbE 56.25°
7 East-northeast ENE 67.50°
8 East by north EbN 78.75°
9 East E Levante 90.00°
10 East by south EbS 101.25°
11 East-southeast ESE 112.50°
12 Southeast by east SEbE 123.75°
13 Southeast SE Sirocco 135.00°
14 Southeast by south SEbS 146.25°
15 South-southeast SSE 157.50°
16 South by east SbE 168.75°
17 South S Ostro 180.00°
18 South by west SbW 191.25°
19 South-southwest SSW 202.50°
20 Southwest by south SWbS 213.75°
21 Southwest SW Libeccio 225.00°
22 Southwest by west SWbW 236.25°
23 West-southwest WSW 247.50°
24 West by south WbS 258.75°
25 West W Ponente 270.00°
26 West by north WbN 281.25°
27 West-northwest WNW 292.50°
28 Northwest by west NWbW 303.75°
29 Northwest NW Maestro 315.00°
30 Northwest by north NWbN 326.25°
31 North-northwest NNW 337.50°
32 North by west NbW 348.75°
where on PST time zone and EST
Our time changed.
The NHC messed the current intensity up in my opinion. This system has boiling towers of convection in various areas all around the COC. Should be a 45-50MPH TS minumum.
New forecast track is very interesting!
GFS has a nice loop of the collision of IDA with the XtraTropical Low and the Cold front.....This is gonna be an OUCHY event for severe weather across most of Florida if this pans out....WOW!
Seems to me that the shear forecasts are very much disagreeing with what the NHC says they say
7 Day Forecast NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Tonight: Patchy fog after 3am. Otherwise, mostly clear, with a low around 58. East southeast wind between 5 and 7 mph.
Saturday: Patchy fog before 9am. Otherwise, mostly sunny, with a high near 83. East southeast wind between 5 and 15 mph.
Saturday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers after midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 65. East wind between 8 and 11 mph.
Sunday: Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 79. East wind between 8 and 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Sunday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 63. North northeast wind around 14 mph.
Monday: A 20 percent chance of showers after noon. Partly cloudy, with a high near 80. North wind between 13 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Monday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 61. North northwest wind between 10 and 13 mph.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 79. North northwest wind between 11 and 16 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Tuesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 56. North wind around 11 mph.
Veterans Day: Mostly sunny, with a high near 77.
Wednesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 57.
Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 79.
Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 57.
Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 79.
Ya, may not be no duck and run somewhere else from the possible monster to be.....this might actually be worse than a Cat.1 Hurricane over a much larger area.....JMO
The Perfect Storm II, GFDL is now on the boat for that!
HUM....i don't know Yet!
Some of the models have it going the same way... then doubling back onto the Yuc
I believe we may a 100MPH CAT 2 in 24 hrs in the Caribbean Sea
Don't show me a map either, cuz the satellite loops say very little shear is impacting Ida
TS BUSTED FORECAST, to be used in the event you make a minor discrepancy in your forecast.
It's not "your" interactive loop...all you did is copy and paste the nhc's javescript coding.
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