Ida takes aim at the U.S. Gulf Coast

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 11:17 PM GMT on November 08, 2009

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Hurricane Ida burst into the Gulf of Mexico as a Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds this afternoon, and is poised to deliver a solid blow to the U.S. Gulf Coast between Southeast Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle on Tuesday morning. Radar imagery out of Cancun reveals that Ida has retained its tight inner core this afternoon, with only limited rain bands affecting Mexico and western Cuba. Top winds at Cancun, Mexico today were only 15 mph, despite the fact that Ida passed just 60 miles east of the city. Infrared and visible satellite loops show little change in the intensity of Ida's heavy thunderstorms this afternoon, but the cloud pattern is beginning to become distorted due to strong upper-level winds from the southwest that are creating 20 - 25 knots of wind shear over the hurricane. Water vapor satellite imagery reveals a large area of dry air to the southwest of Ida, but this dry air has not yet intruded into Ida's core. The latest 5:30 pm EST vortex report from the Hurricane Hunters showed that the central pressure had risen 1 mb, to 977 mb, but that the surface winds were still near 100 mph. They noted that the eyewall was open to the east, a sign that Ida's inner core may be in trouble.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image from NASA's Terra spacecraft, taken at 1:35 pm EST 11/08/09. Image credit: NASA.

The intensity forecast for Ida
The high wind shear of 20 - 25 knots currently affecting Ida is forecast to persist at that level until Monday night. With the storm now beginning to show a distortion of the cloud pattern due to this shear, it would not be a surprise of the shear managed to inject some dry air into Ida's core Monday morning, significantly weakening the storm. Aiding this process will be cooler waters. Early Monday morning, Ida will be crossing over waters of 26°C, which is barely enough to support a hurricane. By Monday night, wind shear is expected to increase to 40 knots, which ordinarily would begin to tear the storm apart. This wind shear is due to an extratropical low pressure system over the western Gulf of Mexico, and this low will begin dumping cold, stable air into Ida Monday night through Tuesday. This will cause Ida to begin transitioning to an extratropical storm, and it is possible that during the transition Ida's winds will die down relatively slowly, despite the wind shear. The intensity forecast has a high amount of uncertainty, and I wouldn't be surprised at a landfall strength anywhere in the range of 45 mph - 80 mph. My personal best guess is a 50 - 60 mph tropical storm at landfall. Regardless of Ida's strength at landfall, the storm will be able to dump 4 - 8 inches of rain along the Gulf Coast, from New Orleans to Panama City. Isolated tornadoes will also be possible, primarily to the right side of Ida's track.


Figure 2. Maximum storm surge (depth of water above ground) for a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds moving north-northeast at 15 mph. Ida is expected to be moving at this speed and direction at landfall, but will probably be weaker, so surges will not be this high. Image credit: NOAA SLOSH model run for Mobile Bay, 2008 version. Heights are given relative to the NAVD88 datum.

The storm surge forecast for Ida
Storm surge is the other major concern for Ida. With a strong high pressure system anchored over the U.S. today, the pressure difference between this high and Ida is creating a strong pressure gradient that will drive tides 3 - 5 feet above normal from New Orleans to the Florida Panhandle tonight. As Ida approaches on Monday, an additional rise in water will occur, and a large stretch of coast will be subject to very high water levels for an extended period of time. With battering waves building Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning, a significant coastal erosion event is shaping up. A particular concern is the western end of Alabama's Dauphin Island, where storm surges from four hurricanes over the past fifteen years have caused heavy damage to the low-lying heavily developed island. If Ida makes a direct hit on Mobile Bay as a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds, a storm surge of up to six feet is possible there, assuming the storm hits at mean tide. The tidal range along the Gulf Coast varies by about 1.5 feet between low and high tide (Figure 3). High tide is near 2 am EST on Tuesday, but the official NHC forecast currently has the storm hitting between 6 am - 9 am, when the tide will be going out, so the storm may indeed be hitting at about mean tide.


Figure 3. The tide forecast for the Gulf Coast calls for high tide to occur around 2 am EST Tuesday morning. Ida is expected to hit later that morning, while the tide is going out.

I'll have an update Monday morning.

Links to follow:

U.S. Severe Weather Page
Cancun radar

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Patrap:


Looks like she tried to blow up one more time.
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3712
1390. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127969
Quoting emguy:
russdog...the Hurricane vortex message showed a significant increase in the pressure. Ida is running out of gas fast. Peak intensity was 968 earlier this afternoon. Recent Hurricane Hunter Vortex message showed 987 at the center. 988 is typically the threashold for a hurricane. I heard the pressure was up to 997, but I have no reliable data to back that/believe that. Otherwise, Ida is a highly sheared storm and she is facing quick demise. She's done as a hurricane.


The NHC puts the pressure at 987 mb. Expect the current intensity of 90 kt to be considerably reduced next advisory.
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1388. russdog
Quoting emguy:
russdog...the Hurricane vortex message showed a significant increase in the pressure. Ida is running out of gas fast. Peak intensity was 968 earlier this afternoon. Recent Hurricane Hunter Vortex message showed 987 at the center. 988 is typically the threashold for a hurricane. I heard the pressure was up to 997, but I have no reliable data to back that/believe that. Otherwise, Ida is a highly sheared storm and she is facing quick demise. She's done as a hurricane.

Thank you, that was helpful and informative. I appreciate it...
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1387. emguy
russdog...the Hurricane vortex message showed a significant increase in the pressure. Ida is running out of gas fast. Peak intensity was 968 earlier this afternoon. Recent Hurricane Hunter Vortex message showed 987 at the center. 988 is typically the threashold for a hurricane. I heard the pressure was up to 997, but I have no reliable data to back that/believe that. Otherwise, Ida is a highly sheared storm and she is facing quick demise. She's done as a hurricane.
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Quoting KC2NOLA:
Thanks medicroc

Pleasure
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1385. KC2NOLA
Thanks medicroc
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1384. xcool
pat here comeing rain ooh boy
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15649
1383. Patrap
Floater - Rainbow Color Infrared Loop
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127969
Quoting KC2NOLA:
Alright, I typically lurk - but I am concerned for NOLA. I work late nights at a hospital. I work graveyard shift both Monday and Tuesday. Should I be worried? TIA

I wouldn't be so concerned about wind/surge. Flooding from heavy rain may be the problem you would most likely have to watch out for
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1381. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
whoa did not notice Severe Cyclone Ida was so close to land already O_o
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1380. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127969
1379. xcool
nw jog .
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15649
1378. KC2NOLA
Alright, I typically lurk - but I am concerned for NOLA. I work late nights at a hospital. I work graveyard shift both Monday and Tuesday. Should I be worried? TIA
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1377. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
AT 1200 AM CST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IDA WAS LOCATED
BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE
24.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.5 WEST OR ABOUT 340 MILES...545 KM...
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

Data is 1 hr 30 min old, just to make things clear
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1376. russdog
Quoting sarahjola:
so this update was at midnight from the nhc? well its 1:10 am. so does anyone know if it weakening or is the latest update correct?

Not sure if we're gonna get anything helpful here... seems like a few guys who are mainly BS'ing in public with their pals, and not very interested in being helpful.
I could be wrong, but that's what it seems like to me...
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1375. emguy
Ida definately is holding her own for a totally de-coupled hurricane...but her threat may be diminishing. Hours ago, I mentioned that she got decoupled at the mid levels. This remains evident on JSL and Shortwave imagery. Sure enough, she got a chop block at the knee caps. Mid level circulation parting for west central florida...Low level circulation parting more and more to the NW or even wnw under the influence of the low level ridge. With time, she's probably gonna spin down faster now. Lots of energy out there for severe WX though.
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Quoting snowboy:


Anthony, how nice of you to downgrade the system. Could you please provide your evidence/experience which is the basis for the downgrade? And why anyone should be going by your downgrade rather than the latest NHC advisory?


I claim no more experience or knowledge than anyone else here...I'm just giving my honest opinion based on my own personal hunches.

But, the evidence is certainly there...the trough is already eating up on the circulation of Ida: the westerlies seem to be moving in a bit faster than forecasted along the upper coast, and the old BOC low is rolling along to the N and will probably be hooking NE before long in response to the upcoming trough and cold front scheduled to move through the Gulf States tomorrow night and Tuesday.

And...the gulf waters are considerable cooler once you get past 25 degrees lat...only marginally suitable for tropical development where Ida is currently, and falling to nearly 68-69 degrees near the coastline. No warm core tropical storm can develop, let alone intensify, in that climate...and that's before the shear and the interaction with the old BOC low are considered.

The only fly in the ointment, so to speak, is the Loop Current, where some warmer water still exists...and Ida is right now crossing the Current right now. And still, it only retains its current intensity. It goes without saying that once it leaves that area and moves into even cooler waters, it cannot sustain itself as a warm-core feature...only its fast movement is keeping it alive as it is.

Oh...and I never said that it would downgrade quickly, just that it would ultimately transform itself over the next 24-48 hours. It may not show up in the next NHC advisory or two...but ultimately it will show itself.

Maybe I'm wrong, and this will go as the current NHC forecast states...and I don't doubt their forecasting skills at all. I'm only giving my own personal viewpoint based on my instincts...just like everyone else here. No disrespect to all the pro meterologists here, but I have a right to my opinons.
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Quoting CycloneOz:
Hey!

PensacolaDoug has his Weather Station up and running just in time to document the landfall of Hurricane? Ida!!!


Well, that's kinda convenient. He's less than a mile from me. ;-)

And hello, everyone. I rarely comment, but lurk all year. Thanks for all the tropical chatter. It's a help.
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Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Got my weather station up!


Warrington Florida.
Good luck tomorrow Doug. I am up here in Pace. Looking forward to your input during the "event".
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1371. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory Number FOUR
PERTURBATION TROPICALE 03-20092010
10:00 AM Réunion November 9 2009
=========================================

At 6:00 AM, Tropical Disturbance 03R (1003 hPa) located at 3.9S 74.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 35 knots. The disturbance is reported as moving east at 3 knots.

RSMC Dvorak Intensity: T1.5/2.0

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 4.0S 74.7E - 25 kts (Perturbation Tropicale)
24 HRS: 4.5S 74.4E - 25 kts (Perturbation Tropicale)
48 HRS: 5.1S 72.5E - 30 kts (Depression Tropicale)
72 HRS: 6.0S 70.0E - 30 kts (Depression Tropicale)

Additional Information
========================
Within this net, deep convection associated to the low, monitored since Saturday north of the Chagos, has suffered from the increased east northeasterly vertical wind shear and has clearly moved away from the center.

Low level equatorial inflow, boosted by the twin cyclongensis near Sri Lanka is expected to weaken as this low is forecasted to track northward. Upper level environment is not expected to improve within the next 24-36 hrs, this low is in consequence not expected to deepen significantly

Numerical Weather Prediction Models disagree about the forecast track but an option of a slow eastward drift seems to make consensus as a response to conflicting effects of the steering westerly weakening flow in the north and the easterly steering flow in the south for the next 12 hours, then the system will track so southwestwards and accelerate progressively.

Next Tropical Cyclone Advisory will be issued at around 18:30 PM UTC or until necessary
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1370. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #7
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27
15:00 PM JST November 9 2009
=========================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression near Minamitori sima

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1002 hPa) located at 20.6N 160.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving east at 10 knots

RSMC Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 24.9N 164.0E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
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Hey!

PensacolaDoug has his Weather Station up and running just in time to document the landfall of Hurricane? Ida!!!

Here is the current conditions.

PS: Doug's home is just a block away from Bayou Grande and very close to the Pensacola NAS.

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1368. snowboy
Here is the latest NHC advisory (from midnight), which includes a hurricane warning for the Gulf Coast:


000
WTNT31 KNHC 090556
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IDA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 21A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
1200 AM CST MON NOV 09 2009

...IDA HEADED NORTH-NORTHWEST TOWARD THE GULF COAST...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
FROM PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI EASTWARD TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA. A
HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO WEST
OF PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI...INCLUDING NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24
HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST FROM EAST OF INDIAN PASS FLORIDA TO AUCILLA RIVER FLORIDA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

AT 1200 AM CST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IDA WAS LOCATED
BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE
24.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.5 WEST OR ABOUT 340 MILES...545 KM...
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

IDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
ON TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...IDA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE GULF OF MEXICO TODAY...AND APPROACH THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. IDA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST...BUT IDA IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN A HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200
MILES...320 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM PRESSURE BASED ON DATA FROM THE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.

IDA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM
TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES POSSIBLE.

RAINS WILL BE INCREASING WELL IN ADVANCE OF IDA ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN GULF COAST...BUT WILL BECOME STEADIER AND HEAVIER
LATER TODAY INTO TUESDAY. TOTAL STORM ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5
INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTALS OF 8 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY FROM THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST
NORTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.

A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 4 TO 6
FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE COAST NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF
WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

...SUMMARY OF 1200 AM CST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...24.4N 87.5W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 15 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
300 AM CST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/KIMBERLAIN
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1367. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
11:30 AM IST November 9 2009
========================================

Yesterday's well marked low pressure area over lakeshadweep and neighborhood persists. It is likely to concentrate into a depression over the same area during the next 12 hours an move in a north northwesterly direction

Convective clouds are seen over parts os south Bay of Bengal, southeast and east central Arabian Sea. Cloud top temperatures over southeast and east central Arabian Sea is betwwen -50C to -70C
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1366. xcool
Lat/Lon: 30.3° N 89.8° W from slidell
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15649
Quoting ChuckieTodd:


I don't get it either. How did the HH come back with 988mb and the NHC still calls it at 105mph?


Ida may be under a higher atmospheric pressure condition than before. Like with Bertha - she could never bottom out with her pressure because she was waltzing around in an area of intense high pressure (the bermuda high)
Or Ida is very slowly spinning down.
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I saw that the highest tides will not hit until Thursday through Saturday. just thought i'd mention, because people seem to forget that serious damage can occur even if the ida is a tropical depression, doesn't have to be a hurricane. need to look at us river gauges also.
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Pressure falling pretty fast here in NOLA
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so this update was at midnight from the nhc? well its 1:10 am. so does anyone know if it weakening or is the latest update correct?
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Quoting AnthonyJKenn:


First off, I never said that it wouldn't still be a decently bad storm, just that it wouldn't be the second coming of Katrina that some folk here were forecasting.

Secondly....I didn't mean to downgrade the impacts on folks who will be affected, not by a long shot. This may not be a Cat 1 or 2 hurricane, but a strong NW Gulf gale storm can and will still wreak pretty strong havoc on the Northern and NE'ern Gulf...and if it does manage to merge with the trough and the upper level low, you could still get a considerable "bomb out" storm that can do pretty strong damage.

And third...my admittedly snarky remarks were directed more at Tacoman/STORMTOP, who has a history of wishcasting Cat 5 disasters to NOLA every year. Just because he got Katrina right in 2005 doesn't mean that he was right every other time.

I apologize if I sounded a bit snarky...but someone has to stand up for climatology and some realism.

To everyone preparing for this storm, I wish them well. I'm just happy that I'm not in the line of fire here in South Central LA.


Anthony


Apology accepted, and I apologize myself for flying into a snit so quickly. I admit the "wannabe" part got to me. And I've heard the word "wishcasting" too many times. So I just started angrily pounding on my keyboard.

Personally, I'm glad you're not in the line of fire, too, if only because if you were, my family would be too.

I think I'll go to bed before I get myself into trouble.

G'nite, y'all!
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Quoting weatherman874:


you thinkin LA also?


Nope....more closer to the consensus of just S of Mobile Bay, then turning NE towards the FL Panhandle.

On the other hand...if Ida does get ripped apart or merges with the old BOC low, the new hybrid may decide to form its center just S or SE of Grand Isle/mouth of the Mississippi, then move NE or ENE from there. Then, we would see stronger winds further away from the center as most gale centers bring, heavier rain on the NE side, and an enhanced tornado threat on the E and SE side as the whole shooting match moves inland.

Whether it comes inland as a tropical or xtrop storm, however, it will carry quite a punch.
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1359. snowboy
Quoting AnthonyJKenn:
WOW....from nearly a Cat 3 hurricane to a rapidly disentegrating xtrop wannabe storm in less than 12 hours. That's what wind shear, marginal SST's strong westerlies, and upper level troughs in November can do in the Gulf of Mexico.

Ida might even stay on the NNW course and flirt with NOLA, but even if it did, by the time it reached MoMiss (Mouth of the Mississippi) it will be at best a mid-level tropical storm, and more than likely it will be a NW Gulf gale center merging with the trough and getting pulled NE or E.

And it's still more likely that the trough will come early and pull everything NE into the mid FL Panhandle after all.

And what do you think will happen when it gets near the coast and encounters even cooler SST's of nearly 69-70 degrees??

Sorry, Tacoman and y'all, but climatology and reality beat wishcasting any old day. Prepare for the worst, and be ready for any surprises...but this is looking more and more like a early "Sou'easter" gale for the Northern Gulf after all.

It was fun while it lasted, though.


Anthony


Anthony, how nice of you to downgrade the system. Could you please provide your evidence/experience which is the basis for the downgrade? And why anyone should be going by your downgrade rather than the latest NHC advisory?
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Got my weather station up!


Warrington Florida.
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Quoting Patrap:
12:00 AM CST Mon Nov 9

Location: 24.4°N 87.5°W

Max sustained: 105 mph
Moving: NNW at 15 mph
Min pressure: 987 mb


up to 987 likely 85-90 mph cane by mornin.
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3712
Quoting AnthonyJKenn:


First off, I never said that it wouldn't still be a decently bad storm, just that it wouldn't be the second coming of Katrina that some folk here were forecasting.

Secondly....I didn't mean to downgrade the impacts on folks who will be affected, not by a long shot. This may not be a Cat 1 or 2 hurricane, but a strong NW Gulf gale storm can and will still wreak pretty strong havoc on the Northern and NE'ern Gulf...and if it does manage to merge with the trough and the upper level low, you could still get a considerable "bomb out" storm that can do pretty strong damage.

And third...my admittedly snarky remarks were directed more at Tacoman/STORMTOP, who has a history of wishcasting Cat 5 disasters to NOLA every year. Just because he got Katrina right in 2005 doesn't mean that he was right every other time.

I apologize if I sounded a bit snarky...but someone has to stand up for climatology and some realism.

To everyone preparing for this storm, I wish them well. I'm just happy that I'm not in the line of fire here in South Central LA.


Anthony


you thinkin LA also?
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1355. russdog
Quoting AnthonyJKenn:
WOW....from nearly a Cat 3 hurricane to a rapidly disentegrating xtrop wannabe storm in less than 12 hours. That's what wind shear, marginal SST's strong westerlies, and upper level troughs in November can do in the Gulf of Mexico.

Ida might even stay on the NNW course and flirt with NOLA, but even if it did, by the time it reached MoMiss (Mouth of the Mississippi) it will be at best a mid-level tropical storm, and more than likely it will be a NW Gulf gale center merging with the trough and getting pulled NE or E.

And it's still more likely that the trough will come early and pull everything NE into the mid FL Panhandle after all.

And what do you think will happen when it gets near the coast and encounters even cooler SST's of nearly 69-70 degrees??

Sorry, Tacoman and y'all, but climatology and reality beat wishcasting any old day. Prepare for the worst, and be ready for any surprises...but this is looking more and more like a early "Sou'easter" gale for the Northern Gulf after all.

It was fun while it lasted, though.


Anthony


Is this for real? Not being snarky, this is a real question. I'm in Gulf Shores AL, and would like to know what to expect. Am not a rookie about hurricanes, just trying to figure out if I need to plan on just annoying TS wind and lots of rain vs. destructive winds. Evidently, some folks are looking at stuff I don't see anywhere.

Do we know what the midnight airplane found? What's it look like?

I was expecting a new NOAA "Forecast Discussion" soon after midnight CST, but it's still showing the 9pm one along with the rather unhelpful midnight "Advisory".
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1354. Patrap
12:00 AM CST Mon Nov 9

Location: 24.4°N 87.5°W

Max sustained: 105 mph
Moving: NNW at 15 mph
Min pressure: 987 mb
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127969
Looks like its heading northward hoe now.
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3712
Quoting AnthonyJKenn:
WOW....from nearly a Cat 3 hurricane to a rapidly disentegrating xtrop wannabe storm in less than 12 hours. That's what wind shear, marginal SST's strong westerlies, and upper level troughs in November can do in the Gulf of Mexico.

Ida might even stay on the NNW course and flirt with NOLA, but even if it did, by the time it reached MoMiss (Mouth of the Mississippi) it will be at best a mid-level tropical storm, and more than likely it will be a NW Gulf gale center merging with the trough and getting pulled NE or E.

And it's still more likely that the trough will come early and pull everything NE into the mid FL Panhandle after all.

And what do you think will happen when it gets near the coast and encounters even cooler SST's of nearly 69-70 degrees??

Sorry, Tacoman and y'all, but climatology and reality beat wishcasting any old day. Prepare for the worst, and be ready for any surprises...but this is looking more and more like a early "Sou'easter" gale for the Northern Gulf after all.

It was fun while it lasted, though.


Anthony


First off, I never said that it wouldn't still be a decently bad storm, just that it wouldn't be the second coming of Katrina that some folk here were forecasting.

Secondly....I didn't mean to downgrade the impacts on folks who will be affected, not by a long shot. This may not be a Cat 1 or 2 hurricane, but a strong NW Gulf gale storm can and will still wreak pretty strong havoc on the Northern and NE'ern Gulf...and if it does manage to merge with the trough and the upper level low, you could still get a considerable "bomb out" storm that can do pretty strong damage.

And third...my admittedly snarky remarks were directed more at Tacoman/STORMTOP, who has a history of wishcasting Cat 5 disasters to NOLA every year. Just because he got Katrina right in 2005 doesn't mean that he was right every other time.

I apologize if I sounded a bit snarky...but someone has to stand up for climatology and some realism.

To everyone preparing for this storm, I wish them well. I'm just happy that I'm not in the line of fire here in South Central LA.


Anthony
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1351. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127969
can someone post the update for me cuz my computer is acting funny. i can't even get to the sat. loops unless i get them from a post.so is it weakening or not and what does the nhc say about movement?
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Quoting sarahjola:
really still 105? that the new update from nhc? people were just saying that the pressure was rising meaning the storm is losing strength, right? 988 mlb. that is interesting if that update is new.


'Tis true, the latest update with the newest coordinates still has it at 105. Definitely an interesting storm.
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Quoting sarahjola:
really still 105? that the new update from nhc? people were just saying that the pressure was rising meaning the storm is losing strength, right? 988 mlb. that is interesting if that update is new.


I don't get it either. How did the HH come back with 988mb and the NHC still calls it at 105mph?
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1347. xcool
i`m lost anyway
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15649
really still 105? that the new update from nhc? people were just saying that the pressure was rising meaning the storm is losing strength, right? 988 mlb. that is interesting if that update is new.
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looks like some are not going to sleep much tonight!
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1344. xcool
she continue to weaken
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15649
1343. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127969
Quoting AnthonyJKenn:
WOW....from nearly a Cat 3 hurricane to a rapidly disentegrating xtrop wannabe storm in less than 12 hours. That's what wind shear, marginal SST's strong westerlies, and upper level troughs in November can do in the Gulf of Mexico.

Ida might even stay on the NNW course and flirt with NOLA, but even if it did, by the time it reached MoMiss (Mouth of the Mississippi) it will be at best a mid-level tropical storm, and more than likely it will be a NW Gulf gale center merging with the trough and getting pulled NE or E.

And it's still more likely that the trough will come early and pull everything NE into the mid FL Panhandle after all.

And what do you think will happen when it gets near the coast and encounters even cooler SST's of nearly 69-70 degrees??

Sorry, Tacoman and y'all, but climatology and reality beat wishcasting any old day. Prepare for the worst, and be ready for any surprises...but this is looking more and more like a early "Sou'easter" gale for the Northern Gulf after all.

It was fun while it lasted, though.


Anthony


Nice... okay... please remember that there are real people here that will be dealing with this "wannabe" storm. A tropical storm, or extratropical storm, or tropical depression can do as much damage as a hurricane if it sits on you for two days, like my local on this site is saying.

So, while you celebrate your smartness, think of us.
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Quoting xcool:
mm nw ????? good jog west?

do you think it will regain strength in the morning? has it been down graded yet? why is it losing strength and is it going to continue to weaken?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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