Ida takes aim at the U.S. Gulf Coast
Hurricane Ida burst into the Gulf of Mexico as a Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds this afternoon, and is poised to deliver a solid blow to the U.S. Gulf Coast between Southeast Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle on Tuesday morning. Radar imagery out of Cancun reveals that Ida has retained its tight inner core this afternoon, with only limited rain bands affecting Mexico and western Cuba. Top winds at Cancun, Mexico today were only 15 mph, despite the fact that Ida passed just 60 miles east of the city. Infrared and visible satellite loops show little change in the intensity of Ida's heavy thunderstorms this afternoon, but the cloud pattern is beginning to become distorted due to strong upper-level winds from the southwest that are creating 20 - 25 knots of wind shear over the hurricane. Water vapor satellite imagery reveals a large area of dry air to the southwest of Ida, but this dry air has not yet intruded into Ida's core. The latest 5:30 pm EST vortex report from the Hurricane Hunters showed that the central pressure had risen 1 mb, to 977 mb, but that the surface winds were still near 100 mph. They noted that the eyewall was open to the east, a sign that Ida's inner core may be in trouble.
Figure 1. MODIS satellite image from NASA's Terra spacecraft, taken at 1:35 pm EST 11/08/09. Image credit: NASA.
The intensity forecast for Ida
The high wind shear of 20 - 25 knots currently affecting Ida is forecast to persist at that level until Monday night. With the storm now beginning to show a distortion of the cloud pattern due to this shear, it would not be a surprise of the shear managed to inject some dry air into Ida's core Monday morning, significantly weakening the storm. Aiding this process will be cooler waters. Early Monday morning, Ida will be crossing over waters of 26°C, which is barely enough to support a hurricane. By Monday night, wind shear is expected to increase to 40 knots, which ordinarily would begin to tear the storm apart. This wind shear is due to an extratropical low pressure system over the western Gulf of Mexico, and this low will begin dumping cold, stable air into Ida Monday night through Tuesday. This will cause Ida to begin transitioning to an extratropical storm, and it is possible that during the transition Ida's winds will die down relatively slowly, despite the wind shear. The intensity forecast has a high amount of uncertainty, and I wouldn't be surprised at a landfall strength anywhere in the range of 45 mph - 80 mph. My personal best guess is a 50 - 60 mph tropical storm at landfall. Regardless of Ida's strength at landfall, the storm will be able to dump 4 - 8 inches of rain along the Gulf Coast, from New Orleans to Panama City. Isolated tornadoes will also be possible, primarily to the right side of Ida's track.
Figure 2. Maximum storm surge (depth of water above ground) for a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds moving north-northeast at 15 mph. Ida is expected to be moving at this speed and direction at landfall, but will probably be weaker, so surges will not be this high. Image credit: NOAA SLOSH model run for Mobile Bay, 2008 version. Heights are given relative to the NAVD88 datum.
The storm surge forecast for Ida
Storm surge is the other major concern for Ida. With a strong high pressure system anchored over the U.S. today, the pressure difference between this high and Ida is creating a strong pressure gradient that will drive tides 3 - 5 feet above normal from New Orleans to the Florida Panhandle tonight. As Ida approaches on Monday, an additional rise in water will occur, and a large stretch of coast will be subject to very high water levels for an extended period of time. With battering waves building Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning, a significant coastal erosion event is shaping up. A particular concern is the western end of Alabama's Dauphin Island, where storm surges from four hurricanes over the past fifteen years have caused heavy damage to the low-lying heavily developed island. If Ida makes a direct hit on Mobile Bay as a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds, a storm surge of up to six feet is possible there, assuming the storm hits at mean tide. The tidal range along the Gulf Coast varies by about 1.5 feet between low and high tide (Figure 3). High tide is near 2 am EST on Tuesday, but the official NHC forecast currently has the storm hitting between 6 am - 9 am, when the tide will be going out, so the storm may indeed be hitting at about mean tide.
Figure 3. The tide forecast for the Gulf Coast calls for high tide to occur around 2 am EST Tuesday morning. Ida is expected to hit later that morning, while the tide is going out.
I'll have an update Monday morning.
Links to follow:
U.S. Severe Weather Page
Cancun radar
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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That would surprise my parents.
Be careful on highway 98. Not sure about 298 or where it's at.
Scary feeling hydroplaning.
http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?wv_east_enhanced+12
Agreed March of the Penguins is so much more important then some decent weather news, hell they will probably even run storm stories as the thing landfalls.
from WEARTV:
"BREAKING NEWS: Escambia County, Florida - Escambia County, Florida public schools (pre-K - 12th grade) will be closed Monday and Tuesday due to the approach of hurricane Ida. Escambia County, FL declared a state of emergency Sunday evening. They are asking for voluntary evacuations along coastal areas. Bridges will be shut down if winds sustain 45 mph or more."
Problem is going to be when people on the beach are going wake up tomorrow with water on their stoop.
I think I little more but we shall see.
alan sealls: "that's a lot of shoulds"
exactly....they are all just thinking that it's going to go "poof" and that it will just disapear?? just don't get it....woulda shuda my butt....it's a freak storm noone knows what the heck it's going to do...hell the NHC had it what being only at 60 mph at this time?? expect the unexpected i think on this one....just hope it don't catch too many off guard.
850-500mb mean steering
Floater - Water Vapor Loop
Shear decreasing north of it, but running around 20-30 knots...
Is there any reason why this hasn't become a major event on news there in the GOMEX states?
Cantore, always been the best of TWC.
She probably does "wake up with Al"
She annoys the living crap out of me, along with "Al" himself, they would make a great pain in the butt couple haha
It's okay...really...it's not a big deal I know people get stressed out when these hurricanes make a threat. I guess I chose the wrong state to move to.
Exactly! That is where I live! Tore up from the floor up...
goodness, at least they came to their senses, even if it IS almost 8pm their time.
Good thinking. Thanks for the post, doug.
It hits and bounces. Or is caught up in the cold front going south. Or crosses the state and then loops south.
IMHO, nobody knows yet.
Yup, Should continue NNW for the next 2-3 hours than due north again.
I saw CNN report on it for about 5 mins when I went to subway. Once it hits cat 3 (if it does) it will likely be on the news.
00Z Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)
Its not funny it's scary as Hel! For most folks on the gulf coast they had 3+ days to get ready... This is just creeping up on people, and as we get towards bed-time, people are going to wae up with a High Cat 1 or Low CAT 2 150 miles of the coast. Thats scary.
It's the time of year people are being semi-ignorant to the fact that a cyclone can still impact them. You have people like Glenn Beck who just last week declared Hurricane season is over, and you have giddy idiots like TWC who make the situation almost laughable.
I do however applaud many of the local news outlets for trying to get the word out, but lets face it in todays society not that many watch the local news hence there may be some confusion in the coming day.
it's football season...and this IS the south...
Local TV stations are scrolling info now and breaking in with live information almost every hour.
that is what I meant when I said look at the models lol
we will just have to see how it all plays out
Not what I meant, what I mean is that Ike is such a better looking storm yet somehow Ida is almost the same strength as him.
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