Ida takes aim at the U.S. Gulf Coast
Hurricane Ida burst into the Gulf of Mexico as a Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds this afternoon, and is poised to deliver a solid blow to the U.S. Gulf Coast between Southeast Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle on Tuesday morning. Radar imagery out of Cancun reveals that Ida has retained its tight inner core this afternoon, with only limited rain bands affecting Mexico and western Cuba. Top winds at Cancun, Mexico today were only 15 mph, despite the fact that Ida passed just 60 miles east of the city. Infrared and visible satellite loops show little change in the intensity of Ida's heavy thunderstorms this afternoon, but the cloud pattern is beginning to become distorted due to strong upper-level winds from the southwest that are creating 20 - 25 knots of wind shear over the hurricane. Water vapor satellite imagery reveals a large area of dry air to the southwest of Ida, but this dry air has not yet intruded into Ida's core. The latest 5:30 pm EST vortex report from the Hurricane Hunters showed that the central pressure had risen 1 mb, to 977 mb, but that the surface winds were still near 100 mph. They noted that the eyewall was open to the east, a sign that Ida's inner core may be in trouble.
Figure 1. MODIS satellite image from NASA's Terra spacecraft, taken at 1:35 pm EST 11/08/09. Image credit: NASA.
The intensity forecast for Ida
The high wind shear of 20 - 25 knots currently affecting Ida is forecast to persist at that level until Monday night. With the storm now beginning to show a distortion of the cloud pattern due to this shear, it would not be a surprise of the shear managed to inject some dry air into Ida's core Monday morning, significantly weakening the storm. Aiding this process will be cooler waters. Early Monday morning, Ida will be crossing over waters of 26°C, which is barely enough to support a hurricane. By Monday night, wind shear is expected to increase to 40 knots, which ordinarily would begin to tear the storm apart. This wind shear is due to an extratropical low pressure system over the western Gulf of Mexico, and this low will begin dumping cold, stable air into Ida Monday night through Tuesday. This will cause Ida to begin transitioning to an extratropical storm, and it is possible that during the transition Ida's winds will die down relatively slowly, despite the wind shear. The intensity forecast has a high amount of uncertainty, and I wouldn't be surprised at a landfall strength anywhere in the range of 45 mph - 80 mph. My personal best guess is a 50 - 60 mph tropical storm at landfall. Regardless of Ida's strength at landfall, the storm will be able to dump 4 - 8 inches of rain along the Gulf Coast, from New Orleans to Panama City. Isolated tornadoes will also be possible, primarily to the right side of Ida's track.
Figure 2. Maximum storm surge (depth of water above ground) for a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds moving north-northeast at 15 mph. Ida is expected to be moving at this speed and direction at landfall, but will probably be weaker, so surges will not be this high. Image credit: NOAA SLOSH model run for Mobile Bay, 2008 version. Heights are given relative to the NAVD88 datum.
The storm surge forecast for Ida
Storm surge is the other major concern for Ida. With a strong high pressure system anchored over the U.S. today, the pressure difference between this high and Ida is creating a strong pressure gradient that will drive tides 3 - 5 feet above normal from New Orleans to the Florida Panhandle tonight. As Ida approaches on Monday, an additional rise in water will occur, and a large stretch of coast will be subject to very high water levels for an extended period of time. With battering waves building Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning, a significant coastal erosion event is shaping up. A particular concern is the western end of Alabama's Dauphin Island, where storm surges from four hurricanes over the past fifteen years have caused heavy damage to the low-lying heavily developed island. If Ida makes a direct hit on Mobile Bay as a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds, a storm surge of up to six feet is possible there, assuming the storm hits at mean tide. The tidal range along the Gulf Coast varies by about 1.5 feet between low and high tide (Figure 3). High tide is near 2 am EST on Tuesday, but the official NHC forecast currently has the storm hitting between 6 am - 9 am, when the tide will be going out, so the storm may indeed be hitting at about mean tide.
Figure 3. The tide forecast for the Gulf Coast calls for high tide to occur around 2 am EST Tuesday morning. Ida is expected to hit later that morning, while the tide is going out.
I'll have an update Monday morning.
Links to follow:
U.S. Severe Weather Page
Cancun radar
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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If I were in P'cola Bch, I would start evacuating now! That man is a hurricane magnet!!! LOL!!!
True...they have crews all over...JC is sippin on a bushwacker at Pensacola Beach. Check it on Twitter.
AOI
AOI
AOI
AOI
TS BUSTED FORECAST, to be used in the event you make a minor discrepancy in your forecast.
Due to minimal changes in the Ida forecast, I have decided to wait until early tomarrow morning Monday for the next tropical update video.
http://www.hurricanecity.com/
Sorry he is in Florida. Mike is in Mississippi.
Funny u say that...she is with Jim and I think he said on Twitter they were not having an affair, b/c she wakes up with Al! Ha, Ha
i live in santa rosa county and ill be dang if my kids are going to school tomarrow in all this.
Areal Flood Watch
Statement as of 10:13 PM CST on November 08, 2009
... Flood Watch remains in effect through Tuesday afternoon...
The Flood Watch continues for
* portions of southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi...
including the following areas... in southeast Louisiana... lower
Jefferson... lower Lafourche... lower Plaquemines... lower St.
Bernard... lower Terrebonne... Orleans... St. Charles... St. John
The Baptist... St. Tammany... Tangipahoa... upper Jefferson...
upper Lafourche... upper Plaquemines... upper St. Bernard...
upper Terrebonne and Washington. In southern Mississippi...
Hancock... Harrison... Jackson... Pearl River... Pike and Walthall.
* Through Tuesday afternoon
* deep tropical moisture will move into the region from late
tonight into Tuesday resulting in periods of heavy rainfall.
Moderate durations of heavier rain may produce rainfall rates in
excess of 2 inches per hour. Accumulations of 3 to 5 inches will
be possible with locally higher amounts possible.
* Impacts include a likelihood of nuisance street flooding and
ponding of water in poorly drained areas. There is a potential
for flooding during periods of higher rain intensities that may
threaten inundation of property and vehicles. In addition...
communities near tidal influenced waterways may experience slow
drainage due to higher than normal tides.
Precautionary/preparedness actions...
A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts.
You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible
flood warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be
prepared to take action should flooding develop.
Inland Tropical Wind Warning, Tropical Storm Warning, Hurricane Watch
Statement as of 10:58 PM CST on November 08, 2009
... Tropical Storm Wind Warning in effect until 6 PM CST Tuesday...
... Tropical Storm Warning in effect...
... Hurricane Watch in effect...
..new information...
Tropical storm watches upgraded to warnings.
... Precautionary/preparedness actions...
precautionary/preparedness actions...
Preparations should be made as soon as possible... before conditions
deteriorate. Keep informed while listening for possible warnings.
Secure loose outdoor objects which can be blown around. Strongly
consider evacuating if you live in a Mobile home... and do so if
ordered by local officials.
... Winds...
as Hurricane Ida approaches... sustained tropical storm force
winds are expected to begin late Monday afternoon and continue
into Tuesday morning. Minor damage may occur to older Mobile
homes. Residents should move loose items indoors... such as garbage
cans and outdoor furniture... as they will be blown around. Newly
planted or Young trees and shrubs may be uprooted if not secured
properly. Isolated power outages will be possible.
... Storm surge and storm tide...
tides are currently running around 2 feet above normal due to persistent
east winds. Tides are expected to rise to 3 feet above normal by
Monday afternoon. These high tide levels may lead to some Road
closures by Monday afternoon. Minor storm surge flooding of 3 to 4
feet can be expected outside of hurricane protection levees and in
areas around lakes Pontchartrain and Maurepas from Monday through
Tuesday morning as Hurricane Ida moves through the coastal waters
of Louisiana and Mississippi. Some non elevated homes in these
areas may experience flooding. Minor to moderate tidal flooding of
property and perhaps some flooding of low lying roads may occur
during high tide.
... Inland flooding...
a Flood Watch is in effect for the entire area. See latest
forecast for latest information. Listen for possible flood
warnings for your location... and be ready to act if flooding
rains occur.
900 PM CST sun Nov 8 2009
Grand-Isle-la 29.25n 89.96w
Pascagoula-MS 30.35n 88.55w
It's Time to play "What's the Central Pressure?!?"
1 point will be added to every mb that the guess is off from the first Recon pass of the HH's.
1 Point will be added for 2 mph the highest wind speed is in the NW Quad on the first penetration.
The person with the least points wins!
*Points mean absolutely nothing and are just to boost your ego and make you feel good :)*
LOL!!! All I know is that every guy seems to WANT her to visit during the hurricane and NO ONE wants Jim Cantore to visit! Ha ha! ;)
see post1172 for text
http://www.403wg.afrc.af.mil/news/story.asp?id=123176728
Interesting observation, as this has been mentioned before about wildlife before a storm. I was just outside: Not a seagull, not our barn owl, not a frog...nada, chirping, hooting or anything. Oddly quiet outside and quite still.
Well wherever the hell she is, that's where I've gotta be! haha
Confirmation - she's pissed.
JSL
http://www.brett-robinson.com/webcams.html
http://www.bamabeachcams.com/
http://www.gulfcondos.com/webcam/
http://flhurricane.com/jjohnston/
http://www.lulusathomeport.com/webcam.php
http://www.alohasurf.net/
http://www.destinpasslive.com/navarre-beach.html
http://www.islandempress.com/webcam/
http://destincam.com/
http://innerlightsurf.com/pages/crosscam.html
http://piercam.net/
http://204.215.38.82/view/index.shtml
http://remaxsouthern.com/cam.htm
http://www.destinpasslive.com/sandestin-beach.html
http://sowal.com/beachcam.html
The red is my forecast track...its not that much different really from NHC in miles from the turn to the right when it begins.....but look at the impact difference.
If you are right about the wildlife being gone, you had better run...That's what I did when there were no birds on my pier the Saturday before Katrina hit, the ants, squirrels, opossums, raccoons, even the mosquitos were long gone...I got in my truck and followed them...glad I did...my house was gone when I finally got to go home...This doesn't look to be that bad a storm to me, but, I am no expert...
Schooners (PCB)
http://www.schooners.com/multimedia/beachcam.htm
He was buying everybody shots at New York Nicks in Pensacola about a hour ago
Twins in the GOM.....nice convergence with the Xtratropical Low.....you can see how the trough has it on the move....
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