Ida takes aim at the U.S. Gulf Coast
Hurricane Ida burst into the Gulf of Mexico as a Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds this afternoon, and is poised to deliver a solid blow to the U.S. Gulf Coast between Southeast Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle on Tuesday morning. Radar imagery out of Cancun reveals that Ida has retained its tight inner core this afternoon, with only limited rain bands affecting Mexico and western Cuba. Top winds at Cancun, Mexico today were only 15 mph, despite the fact that Ida passed just 60 miles east of the city. Infrared and visible satellite loops show little change in the intensity of Ida's heavy thunderstorms this afternoon, but the cloud pattern is beginning to become distorted due to strong upper-level winds from the southwest that are creating 20 - 25 knots of wind shear over the hurricane. Water vapor satellite imagery reveals a large area of dry air to the southwest of Ida, but this dry air has not yet intruded into Ida's core. The latest 5:30 pm EST vortex report from the Hurricane Hunters showed that the central pressure had risen 1 mb, to 977 mb, but that the surface winds were still near 100 mph. They noted that the eyewall was open to the east, a sign that Ida's inner core may be in trouble.
Figure 1. MODIS satellite image from NASA's Terra spacecraft, taken at 1:35 pm EST 11/08/09. Image credit: NASA.
The intensity forecast for Ida
The high wind shear of 20 - 25 knots currently affecting Ida is forecast to persist at that level until Monday night. With the storm now beginning to show a distortion of the cloud pattern due to this shear, it would not be a surprise of the shear managed to inject some dry air into Ida's core Monday morning, significantly weakening the storm. Aiding this process will be cooler waters. Early Monday morning, Ida will be crossing over waters of 26°C, which is barely enough to support a hurricane. By Monday night, wind shear is expected to increase to 40 knots, which ordinarily would begin to tear the storm apart. This wind shear is due to an extratropical low pressure system over the western Gulf of Mexico, and this low will begin dumping cold, stable air into Ida Monday night through Tuesday. This will cause Ida to begin transitioning to an extratropical storm, and it is possible that during the transition Ida's winds will die down relatively slowly, despite the wind shear. The intensity forecast has a high amount of uncertainty, and I wouldn't be surprised at a landfall strength anywhere in the range of 45 mph - 80 mph. My personal best guess is a 50 - 60 mph tropical storm at landfall. Regardless of Ida's strength at landfall, the storm will be able to dump 4 - 8 inches of rain along the Gulf Coast, from New Orleans to Panama City. Isolated tornadoes will also be possible, primarily to the right side of Ida's track.
Figure 2. Maximum storm surge (depth of water above ground) for a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds moving north-northeast at 15 mph. Ida is expected to be moving at this speed and direction at landfall, but will probably be weaker, so surges will not be this high. Image credit: NOAA SLOSH model run for Mobile Bay, 2008 version. Heights are given relative to the NAVD88 datum.
The storm surge forecast for Ida
Storm surge is the other major concern for Ida. With a strong high pressure system anchored over the U.S. today, the pressure difference between this high and Ida is creating a strong pressure gradient that will drive tides 3 - 5 feet above normal from New Orleans to the Florida Panhandle tonight. As Ida approaches on Monday, an additional rise in water will occur, and a large stretch of coast will be subject to very high water levels for an extended period of time. With battering waves building Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning, a significant coastal erosion event is shaping up. A particular concern is the western end of Alabama's Dauphin Island, where storm surges from four hurricanes over the past fifteen years have caused heavy damage to the low-lying heavily developed island. If Ida makes a direct hit on Mobile Bay as a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds, a storm surge of up to six feet is possible there, assuming the storm hits at mean tide. The tidal range along the Gulf Coast varies by about 1.5 feet between low and high tide (Figure 3). High tide is near 2 am EST on Tuesday, but the official NHC forecast currently has the storm hitting between 6 am - 9 am, when the tide will be going out, so the storm may indeed be hitting at about mean tide.
Figure 3. The tide forecast for the Gulf Coast calls for high tide to occur around 2 am EST Tuesday morning. Ida is expected to hit later that morning, while the tide is going out.
I'll have an update Monday morning.
Links to follow:
U.S. Severe Weather Page
Cancun radar
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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AOI
AOI
AOI
AOI
TS BUSTED FORECAST, to be used in the event you make a minor discrepancy in your forecast.
I know... I figure a lot of parents will feel the same way. I sure would! I homeschool, so it's not an issue for me, but I've got plenty of friends with kids in public schools. I hope they keep their kids at home. Can you imagine the snarls on the streets with everybody trying to prepare and pick up their kids too? Officials are nuts for dragging out decisions like this.
hmmm i was not talking about when storm was down by El Salvador when it 1st be came a hurricane the hurricane look vary well at that time
Thasnks again for what you do for this site....
Taco :0)
LOL On that note, I'm off to sleep. Suspect there won't be too much of that for me tomorrow night. ttfn
Thanks for the warning Mike. Otherwise, I'd have been up all night trying to fix my computer...
That's what happened with Ivan, but this storm not as big nor as strong, and further out still. That being said, if you're that close to water, you should probably head to shelter tomorrow.
Now I really out for the night.
Also, looking at the winds surrounding it. It looks like she may have an elliptical eye with the major axis from SE to NW.
I'm telling you, by looking at the IR loop, Ida is slitting in half, her upper level circulation moving NE towards Florida and LLC NNW. She should start to weaken now and that pressure shows that. I might be wrong however.
Which one is moving faster the Trough or IDA will determine where she goes as landfall....
Any thoughts? Sorry, very tired and stressed.
It for sure is tilted.....heck i almost posted it looks like its getting decuped.
Night
Sheesh.
And if one is banned just from the main Blog,your Blog entry does not disappear.
Thats a Permanent Ban.
Well it was kinda stupid of atmo to make a joke like that; admin has clearly banned people before something like that, so it was very much believable
Oh and you seem to forget that just because 456s blog is still up doesn't mean he wasn't banned from main chat
Ida has Peaked seems and will go xtra in Less that 12 seems,maybe 16 depending on the timing.
Thank you, we sure appreciate it! Thankfully, we're prepared, but I still have to go out in the morning. Short trip, though. :)
Unfortunately, my son is a worry-wart. I'll probably have to bring the bunnies in, too, which should be fun! LOL
OMG That's a heck of a solar flare south of Mississippi, and it is not 2012 yet!!!
Yeah I think it is decoupled. Have thought that for a while. She's been trending down ever since her CDO shrank. Wasn't sure then but posted anyway that I thought she was weakening .. Now I'm pretty sure of it ... Looks to be acquiring extratropical characteristics. I like a landfall around Destin. If she continues to fall to pieces, she could find herself hurled at the gulf coast quicker than that though as she integrates into a large ET system and could make landfall further west. If she maintains purely tropical nature, Destin looks to experience a strong tropical storm. off to bed. We will see what the morning brings. I'd guess a TS Ida 50Kt winds.
Good, but I hope they keep the Hurricane Warning posted I can sure use a couple of days off from work :o)
THAT is how you tell if someone has been banned from chat
anyway Ida getting her butt kicked, time to get some sleep
I love that, Orca!! So funny!
no vortex message yet though; so the weakening if there is some will be shown on the next advisory
LOCATION...24.4N 87.5W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 15 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB
I would love to take credit for it, but I can't... I found it on a joke page... with no authors name...so I just turned it into a webpage... seems to be a fitting page for the Blog some nights :)
12:00 AM CST Mon Nov 9
Location: 24.4°N 87.5°W
Max sustained: 105 mph
Moving: NNW at 15 mph
Min pressure: 987 mb
Your welcome....im no professional and would never confess to be...i just post what i see while giving a different prospective and possiblity that might occur. Guess i see something different and been wrong many times before and more to come....
Ida has been the most interesting storm in a long time.
She helped me to stay at my computer and work all weekend. I hope the flooding at landfall and from surge is not too bad.
Sorry for the folks in El Salvador.
Take care and goodnight.
Hehe... so true!
Well, the breezes are picking up, should be interesting tomorrow.
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