Ida's remnants pounding North and South Carolina; El Salvador flooding toll at 160

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:06 PM GMT on November 11, 2009

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The remnants of Tropical Storm Ida have pushed off the coast of Georgia, and are adding fuel to a developing extratropical storm that is pounding North and South Carolina with heavy rain and high winds. Over two inches of rain has fallen across much of the region, and NOAA's Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (Figure 1) predicts that up to eight inches of rain could fall in coastal North Carolina by Saturday. Adding to the rainwater flooding problems from all this rain will be coastal flooding from tropical storm-force winds of 40 mph expected to build tonight through Thursday along the Outer Banks of North Carolina. High tides up to four feet above normal are expected from the strong winds. North Carolina will end up getting a more severe pounding from Ida's remnants than Ida gave to the Gulf Coast. You can follow the storm with our Severe Weather Page.


Figure 1. Forecast precipitation for the 5-day period ending at 7 am EST Saturday November 14, 2009. Image credit: NOAA/Hydrometeorological Prediction Center

Invest 98L no threat
Another extratropical storm (Invest 98L), currently spinning over the Atlantic a few hundred miles northwest of Puerto Rico, is showing no signs of development, and will be entering a region of very high wind shear of 30 - 40 knots on Thursday. It currently appears that 98L will swing northward and northeast out to sea on Friday and Saturday, and not merge with the extratropical remnants of Ida currently pounding North Carolina.

Gulf Coast cleans up after Ida
Tropical Storm Ida left mostly minor damage across the Gulf Coast, with the heaviest damage being reported on the west end of Alabama's Dauphin Island. Roads there were covered with sand and water, and moderate beach erosion was reported. At Gulf State Park at Orange Beach, Alabama, the new fishing pier--the longest on the Gulf of Mexico--suffered heavy damage, and will be closed indefinitely. The pier was replaced after being destroyed by Hurricane Ivan in 2004, and just opened in July. "We may have significant losses," said Phillip West, Orange Beach coastal resources manager, discussing beach erosion from Ida. "Not catastrophic or devastating, but significant."

In the Florida Panhandle near Pensacola, Ida washed huge amounts of sand over Fort Pickens Road in Gulf Islands National Seashore, and over heavily traveled J. Earle Bowden Way, which connects Pensacola and Navarre beaches. Both roads are closed indefinitely. Fort Pickens Road was washed out by Hurricane Opal in 1995, and moved to a new location. Hurricane Ivan washed the road out in 2004. It was rebuilt, but was destroyed and rebuilt three more times in 2005, thanks to Tropical Storm Arlene and Hurricanes Cindy and Dennis. The most recent rebuilding of the road put it at a lower elevation, to allow sand to wash over it. It is hoped the cost of this latest repair will be under $1 million.

Editorial comment: perhaps having a low-lying road along a barrier island that regularly washes out, requiring millions in taxpayer repair money to fix, is a bad idea?? Seems to me like this is taxpayer money ill-spent. The 1988 Stafford Act, authorizing the rebuilding of damaged infrastructure after presidentially declared emergencies, has resulted in hundreds of millions of dollars in taxpayer money being spent to rebuild infrastructure damaged by tropical storms and hurricanes on barrier islands. In an era of rising sea levels, and with the U.S. in the midst of an active hurricane period expected to last at least another decade, the Stafford Act just doesn't make sense. Those living in areas subject to a very high level of repeated coastal hazards should pay the bills for their willingness to live in harm's way, rather than depending on Uncle Sam.

In a interview in the New York Times after the last time Fort Pickens Road was washed out, Dr. Orrin Pilkey, professor emeritus in the Nicholas School of the Environment at Duke University and author of the excellent 2009 book The Rising Sea, said, "People say, 'What are you going to do, let the road fall in? The correct answer, of course, is yes."

Food shortages in El Salvador after floods kill at least 160
A tropical disturbance that dumped up to 17.4" (442 mm) of rain in 24 hours over central El Salvador on Sunday has triggered the need for urgent food aid after flood and landslides destroyed huge swaths of crops during harvest season, according to the U.N. World Food Program. The storm killed at leat 160 people, with dozens more still missing. About 13,000 people are homeless after the disaster.


Figure 2. Collapsed bridge at Santa Cruz La Libertad, El Salvador, with people trying to cross the river. Image credit: Wunderphotographer DiegoSagrera

For those interested in making a donation to assist in disaster relief for El Salvador, Portlight.org has a Paypal donation page set up for this. All funds raised will be forwarded to José Luis Escobar Alas, Catholic Archbishop of San Salvador, and used to assist flooding victims at the discretion of the Archbishop.

Jeff Masters

Ida on Tuesday Pensacola Beach Pier (FatdaddyMead)
Tuesday morning as Ida passes through.
Ida on Tuesday Pensacola Beach Pier
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Member Since: Posts: Comments:
it think Ida sould get re name STS Ida




oh well too late now
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115252
could this really develop? (in response to some post in the 200's i think) looking sketchy....

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o__0 wow

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Hey OuterBanker, yes. There should be no 'one size fits all' in public policy. It takes analyzing gains against costs and making judgements about the quality of life to create worthwhile projects. Computers can help, but this is still a human enterprise. I am often reminded of the "Billy Budd Sailor" tale all English majors were required to read freshman year (at least way back when...longer ago than I care to mention!) In that story (Melville), the law takes precedence over justifiable action. This absurdity is what should be avoided when making decisions regarding whether roads and bridges should be restored or abandoned.
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Quoting Bordonaro:

The map looks correct. The N GOM ususally cools down to near 70F this time of the year. The S GOM stays toasty warm all year long however.

The 'blobs' out away from the coast look like cloud contamination. For example, the cold streaks here, like the pinks and blues just N of, and in, the Bahamas:



If you collect a week of this data, composite into one plot, and have clouds present for the whole time (or your composite method doesn't remove them), you get cloud streaks in your SST data that show up as anomalously cold areas.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
Just catching up on the weather - looks like Virginia and North Carolina are getting more weather than the panhandle did.

Wanted to say thank you to all the veterans out there, thanks for giving your time, and thank for being there for the rest of us. I too come from a family of military service back to the revolution, all branches, army, airforce, navy. I've also had a son and a son-in-law serve in Iraq, so I know the sacrifice that all of our soldiers make. Please stay safe.
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Tennessee Rock Slide..

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Quoting atmoaggie:
SST colder than last week, but I think it is suspicious. Ida's work wouldn't look like the blue area out in the gulf...that looks more like cloud contamination to me.


The map looks correct. The N GOM ususally cools down to near 70F this time of the year. The S GOM stays toasty warm all year long however.
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Quoting hydrus:
Patrap-If it is alright to ask, what years were you in the Marines?


July 80-86 Air Wing

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128865
Quoting P451:


Hopefully it is just rising earlier than expected and will peak where they expect and no higher.

As it is that's not encouraging anyway.

After I run some early AM errands I'm going to hit the beach around 10AM and film some video. It's going to be low tide. So maybe I can get some. I won't be driving or wading through flooded streets however...so if that's happening (don't expect it at low tide) then forget that.

Will post it tomorrow if I get the footage.

Yes, footage would be interesting to see.

The north end of Outer Banks is running a full 1.5 feet over predictions.

Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
Quoting kmanislander:


There is a low there but forecasted to dissipate. We'll see.



I think shear will finish the job

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Quoting atmoaggie:
SST colder than last week, but I think it is suspicious. Ida's work wouldn't look like the blue area out in the gulf...that looks more like cloud contamination to me.



Water temp near that low to the S of the Cayman Islands still near 85F, more than enough to support something big
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Going off now to do a few other things but will come back later to see if anything of interest caught by QS
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392. MZV
Quoting unf97:
Can you image if there would have been any significant cold air coming in behind a system like this one currently?

There would be much more to talk about with this storm had that happened that's for sure!


True, that... If this setup was a month in the future, all the stores would have been stripped clean of bread and milk, as people panic over an encounter with winter.
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SE VA is getting hammered. The remnants of Ida, combined with the pressure gradient between the 1033 MB H and the 1003 MB L (Ex-Ida) is focusing 40-50MPH winds and heavy rain over the same area, with no let-up in sight.

It's like a TS stalled over VA Beach, VA. Last several hours they have had winds near 40MPH with gusts near 50MPH. That NE wind is really going to cause what appears to be some serious tidal flooding.
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Quoting severstorm:
Yes,You are so right about storms never the same. If the track from the storm would of gone se we might be having all the weather instead of the mid atl. states. Also glad you had a great time and as long as the restroom didnt stink, your flight was a good one.


The attendants locked them off. The first attempt to fix them in flight was to flush them all at the same time !!.

I told one flight attendant I didn't think that was a good idea LMAO

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SST colder than last week, but I think it is suspicious. Ida's work wouldn't look like the blue area out in the gulf...that looks more like cloud contamination to me.

Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I am going to keep my fingers crossed. We could do without a hurricane or even a tropical storm with Hurricane McKeeva ensuring our financial future. LOL


LOL !!

Here is the updated vort map

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Yes,You are so right about storms never the same. If the track from the storm would of gone se we might be having all the weather instead of the mid atl. states. Also glad you had a great time and as long as the restroom didnt stink, your flight was a good one.
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Quoting OuterBanker:
Hello from Kitty Hawk, birthplace of aviation, and home to what appears to be a world ending perfect storm according to Jim Cantore. So I have heard or read between 6 to 12 inches of rain, winds between 20 and 60 mph, etc. It is raining quite hard (my home is on the little peninsula, just south of the "e" in Southern Shores on the radar. We are on Currituck Sound with a whopping normal tide of 0-6 inches). Anyway, wind and rain is starting to pick up and has been steady for about 1.5 hours. So what is somebody's best guesstimate? Biggest concern is pine trees falling on the house. No surge worries because we are almost 30 miles from the nearest inlet, Oregon Inlet and have maintained grasses out into the sound. Second biggest concern is fresh water flooding, as the sound becomes to high and prevents runoff into the sound. If anyone is interested, I will keep you posted. Y'all, actually I was born in NYC, have a great and respectful message board and this is where I come to when weather starts to crank up.


Unless you live in a floodplain, yes, your biggest issue is prolly wind. Please do keep us posted...
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
Quoting kmanislander:


Hi

It may not but who knows. Still a lot of OHC in the area.
I am going to keep my fingers crossed. We could do without a hurricane or even a tropical storm with Hurricane McKeeva ensuring our financial future. LOL
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Good night. I have been watching that little area all day but since it hasn't been mentioned before now figured it was nothing that could amount to anything but then again I always remember Paloma.


Hi

It may not but who knows. Still a lot of OHC in the area.
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Quoting severstorm:
Kman, how are you doing? How was your trip? Didnt get much here in cen.Fl.from Ida.


Hi there. I am still jet lagged but at least I can use that for the next day or so as an excuse for not being too sharp LOL.

Funny thing though, about 8 hours into the flight, which was an hour or so away from Nassau , every toilet on the plane stopped working except one at the very front. With a full 767 that was interesting !!.

Anyway, once we landed they got the problem solved for the remaining hour to Grand Cayman.

I am glad to hear that Ida was less trouble than expected. Sometimes even a weak system can cause a lot of torment by dumping tons of water and causing flooding.

It was a fascinating system to follow. Looking back on the track, it had a right bias across Nicaragua and from there all the way to the Gulf coast a left bias with NNW to NW and N .

No two are ever the same.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hello from Kitty Hawk, birthplace of aviation, and home to what appears to be a world ending perfect storm according to Jim Cantore. So I have heard or read between 6 to 12 inches of rain, winds between 20 and 60 mph, etc. It is raining quite hard (my home is on the little peninsula, just south of the "e" in Southern Shores on the radar. We are on Currituck Sound with a whopping normal tide of 0-6 inches). Anyway, wind and rain is starting to pick up and has been steady for about 1.5 hours. So what is somebody's best guesstimate? Biggest concern is pine trees falling on the house. No surge worries because we are almost 30 miles from the nearest inlet, Oregon Inlet and have maintained grasses out into the sound. Second biggest concern is fresh water flooding, as the sound becomes to high and prevents runoff into the sound. If anyone is interested, I will keep you posted. Y'all, actually I was born in NYC, have a great and respectful message board and this is where I come to when weather starts to crank up.
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Quoting kmanislander:
Good evening

I know that all eyes are glued further North but there is an area of interest off the coast of Honduras at the end of a cold front that is sliding to the SE.

The 850 mb map also shows vorticity in the low levels. This does bear watching as many late season systems spin up from lows at the end of a front.

Good night. I have been watching that little area all day but since it hasn't been mentioned before now figured it was nothing that could amount to anything but then again I always remember Paloma.
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Kman, how are you doing? How was your trip? Didnt get much here in cen.Fl.from Ida.
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Quoting ConchHondros:
Shhh Kman...you will wake up the doomcasters and in the morning we will have a home made graph showing a CAT5 on JFV's house in 120...

Not possible this late iin the season under the current atmospheric conditions.

However, there is still alot of untapped energy availiable in that region of the Caribbean.
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Quoting ConchHondros:
Shhh Kman...you will wake up the doomcasters and in the morning we will have a home made graph showing a CAT5 on JFV's house in 120...


LOL
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Shhh Kman...you will wake up the doomcasters and in the morning we will have a home made graph showing a CAT5 on JFV's house in 120...
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Quoting Bordonaro:
Latest QuikScat just missed the AOI, see link below:

Link


That was this morning. The evening pass is the descending pass and it has downloaded the Eastern Caribbean. I don't know if the next swath will catch that area.
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Yeah, I know this plot is posted not too far from this post, but an increasingly notable discontinuity in the difference between the prediction and observation, and not in a favorable direction makes me want to bring it up again.

Maybe the timing is off and it will be a shorter peak surge coincident with a low tide? We can hope, but don't hold your breath.
Undershooting on the prediction now does not bode well for the mid-Atlantic tomorrow evening.

Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
Latest QuikScat just missed the AOI, see link below:

Link

Both asending and decending passes missed that region!
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Quoting unf97:


There is still a lot of energy in that part of the Atlantic basin obviously. We all saw how IDA spun up in that region. But, yes, I hope IDA will be the final tropical cyclone this season, but you never can count it out completely. Good point kmanislander!


There is a low there but forecasted to dissipate. We'll see.

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371. unf97
Quoting kmanislander:


I second that but who knows. This has been a very odd year. I am certainly interested in seeing the Quikscat pass this evening, if it catches that area.


There is still a lot of energy in that part of the Atlantic basin obviously. We all saw how IDA spun up in that region. But, yes, I hope IDA will be the final tropical cyclone this season, but you never can count it out completely. Good point kmanislander!
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Quoting kmanislander:


I just looked at my barometric conversion chart and it stops at 30.99 !

I believe the record for high pressure is 31.85 inches, set in Alaska in 1989. See link below:

Link
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Quoting Bordonaro:

Hopefully that dissapates quickly! We do not need an instant replay of Ida, whose remnants have dropped tons of rain from AL, MS, GA, FL, TN, NC, SC, VA, DE and MD.


I second that but who knows. This has been a very odd year. I am certainly interested in seeing the Quikscat pass this evening, if it catches that area.
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Quoting Bordonaro:

I would say that would be some type of record high pressure! Somebody needs to re-calibrate their barometer!


I just looked at my barometric conversion chart and it stops at 30.99 !
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Quoting kmanislander:
Good evening

I know that all eyes are glued further North but there is an area of interest off the coast of Honduras at the end of a cold front that is sliding to the SE.

The 850 mb map also shows vorticity in the low levels. This does bear watching as many late season systems spin up from lows at the end of a front.


Hopefully that dissapates quickly! We do not need an instant replay of Ida, whose remnants have dropped tons of rain from AL, MS, GA, FL, TN, NC, SC, VA, DE and MD.
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Vorticity associated with the front off the coast of Honduras

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Quoting stormy2008:
Pressure: 32.14 in (Falling)

With that kind of pressure... we'd all be falling. :)

I would say that would be some type of record high pressure! Somebody needs to re-calibrate their barometer!
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Quoting Patrap:
Why thanks GeoffreyWPB,that means a lot for sure.

Serving America was a privilege.

Have a Happy Veterans Day evening too.
Patrap-If it is alright to ask, what years were you in the Marines?
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363. 789
Quoting kmanislander:
Good evening

I know that all eyes are glued further North but there is an area of interest off the coast of Honduras at the end of a cold front that is sliding to the SE.

The 850 mb map also shows vorticity in the low levels. This does bear watching as many late season systems spin up from lows at the end of a front.

thanx
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Heh. went up. Me thinks we got a bum weather station. Reminds me I've been wanting to buy one.

Neuse River, New Bern, North Carolina (PWS)
Updated: 2 sec ago
Light Rain
63.0 °F
Light Rain
Humidity: 55%
Dew Point: 47 °F
Wind: 14.0 mph from the ENE
Wind Gust: 19.0 mph
Pressure: 32.73 in (Steady)
Visibility: 7.0 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds:
Overcast 600 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 30 ft
Rapid Fire Updates:
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1455
Good evening

I know that all eyes are glued further North but there is an area of interest off the coast of Honduras at the end of a cold front that is sliding to the SE.

The 850 mb map also shows vorticity in the low levels. This does bear watching as many late season systems spin up from lows at the end of a front.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Pressure: 32.14 in (Falling)

With that kind of pressure... we'd all be falling. :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Pressure Gradient seems to have set up about an hour north of here. Dry slot seems to be close by as well. Hard to tell when the rain is gonna ramp back up again. I can't pick out the COC for the L from the radar.

Neuse River, New Bern, North Carolina (PWS)
Updated: 4 sec ago
Heavy Rain
63.0 °F
Heavy Rain Mist
Humidity: 55%
Dew Point: 47 °F
Wind: 15.0 mph from the ENE
Wind Gust: 19.0 mph
Pressure: 32.14 in (Falling)
Visibility: 5.0 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds:
Overcast 600 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1455
Quoting stormy2008:
Quick report from Norfolk... winds are still strong (40-50mph), lots of folks losing power (went out earlier and got gas for the generator). Will continue to post as much as I can... while/when I can.

Thanks for your posts today. Sounds like you're prepared.

And again to Vets and those serving in Armed Forces, and I'll add First Responders...Thank you for all you do and have done.
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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