The Atlantic hurricane season is effectively over; heavy rains in the Northwest

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:22 PM GMT on November 16, 2009

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Only two weeks remain in the Atlantic hurricane season, but the hurricane season of 2009 is effectively over. While the Western Caribbean is still warm enough to support development of a hurricane--as it is year-round--wind shear over the entire North Atlantic has risen to levels prohibitively high for tropical storm formation to occur. Wind shear is forecast to remain very high for at least the next ten days (Figure 1). This is a fairly typical occurrence in the Atlantic for this time of year, though it usually occurs sooner in El Niño years. As you probably know, El Niño conditions in the Eastern Pacific commonly create high levels of wind shear over the tropical Atlantic. This year was no exception, though the shear created by El Niño was not as strong as we've seen in other recent El Niño years. Wind shear was uncharacteristically low in the first half of November, allowing Hurricane Ida to form. Within the past ten days, though, El Niño conditions over the Eastern Pacific have intensified from moderate to strong, and wind shear over the tropical Atlantic has increased significantly, making it unlikely any significant tropical cyclones that affect land will occur the remainder of this hurricane season. Formation of a subtropical storm over the open Atlantic far from land is still a possibility, but such a storm would only be a concern to shipping.


Figure 1. Wind shear forecast for the Atlantic for ten days from now made by last night's 00Z run of the GFS model. The GFS model is forecasting very high wind shear over the entire North Atlantic over the next ten days.

Late season tropical storms in El Niño years
In the 17 hurricane seasons since 1950 where an El Niño event has been present, only three of those years featured named storms that formed after November 15. Tropical Storm Otto formed on November 29, 2004, from the remains of an extratropical storm that got cut off from the jet stream over the middle Atlantic. Otto meandered for a few days far from land before dissipating. Category 1 Hurricane Frances formed on November 19, 1986 in the open Atlantic south of Bermuda, and died after three days without affecting land. Category 1 Hurricane Martha formed on November 21, 1969 in the extreme southwestern Caribbean, off the coast of Panama. Martha weakened to a tropical storm before making landfall in Panama, and was the only named storm in the Atlantic ever to make landfall in Panama.

Typhoon season not over yet
Note that typhoon season in the Western Pacific is not over--we commonly get typhoons well into December. In fact, the ECMWF model is predicting formation of yet another typhoon east of the Philippines, sometime late this week or early next week. Tropical cyclone season is also not over in the Bay of Bengal near India, where some models are predicting an enhanced chance of a tropical storm forming late this week. And in the Southern Hemisphere, hurricane season is just beginning, with the formation of Category 3 Tropical Cyclone Anja near Maritius Island off the coast of Madagascar.


Figure 2. Category 3 Tropical Cyclone Anja in the South Indian Ocean at 1 am EST Monday November 16, 2009. Image credit: NASA.

Heavy rains hit Washington and British Columbia
A strong branch of the polar jet stream laden with moisture is streaming into Washington State and Canada's British Columbia today, and is forecast to bring heavy rains, high winds, and the threat of avalanches to the coastal mountains today through Wednesday. Heavy rains in the Pacific Northwest this time of year are often dubbed the "Pineapple Express" due to Hawaiian origin of the air, and these events are common during El Niño winters, and can strike from Southern California to British Columbia. However, I've been told by Doug McCollor, a forecaster with BC Hydro, that this rain event is not a true Pineapple Express, since the airflow is more west-to-east, rather than from the southwest. He adds, "also, freezing level at Quillayute WA was only 1800m this morning...not that high. In a Pineapple Express the freezing level would be 3500 to 4000m or so. The media here is calling it a Pineapple Express because they look out the window and it's raining all day. It is raining moderately here, no doubt, but it's because there is a downstream Rex block forming over central North America that is impeding the usual west-to-east progression of these storms".

Rainfall amounts in excess of three inches have already been recorded over Vancouver Island, and rains of up to seven inches (Figure 3) are forecast for the region over the next three days. Wind gusts of 44 mph have been recorded at La Push this morning on Washington's Olympic Peninsula.


Figure 3. Forecast precipitation for the 3-day period ending 7 am EST Thursday, November 19, 2009. Up to seven inches of rain are predicted for Washington State and coastal British Columbia. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

I'll have a new post Tuesday or Wednesday.

Jeff Masters

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679. hydrus
3:41 PM GMT on November 18, 2009
Quoting Floodman:


Enjoy it!
Good Morning Floodman, is there a storm forming?
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19537
678. largeeyes
3:20 PM GMT on November 18, 2009
New Blog
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1449
677. NEwxguy
3:02 PM GMT on November 18, 2009
Tampa,Yep,I hear ya,but still not convinced the whole winter is going to be bad,there are going to be some bad stretches,but have a feeling the storm track may be kind of close,so it creates a tricky snow/rain line.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 862 Comments: 15079
676. Canekid98
2:57 PM GMT on November 18, 2009
38 here in H town
675. Floodman
2:56 PM GMT on November 18, 2009
Quoting beell:
Morning, Flood.
Clear, calm, and 46F after a low of 42F. Fairly stout 1020mb on the pressure.

Should be a nice day. See ya'll later.


Enjoy it!
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
674. TampaSpin
2:53 PM GMT on November 18, 2009
Quoting NEwxguy:
Good morning,Flood,I'm doing ok up here,a little chilly this morning,but not bad.


Hope you got the firewood and snow shovel handy. Unless the pattern changes your gonna be in for one heck of a winter im afraid.....That Southern jet stream is not a good position for you all in the NE!!!
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
673. beell
2:53 PM GMT on November 18, 2009
Morning, Flood.
Clear, calm, and 46F after a low of 42F. Fairly stout 1020mb on the pressure.

Should be a nice day. See ya'll later.
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 137 Comments: 15321
672. Floodman
2:50 PM GMT on November 18, 2009
Quoting reedzone:
I'm surprised tacoman hasn't come on here telling us that the nontropical low that is supposed to develop in the GOM will become a monster.. Guess he gave up?

Yes Ike, it is nice to see no arguments :)

LOL..SHHHHH! Speak of the devil and he will appear!
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
671. Floodman
2:49 PM GMT on November 18, 2009
Quoting NEwxguy:
Good morning,Flood,I'm doing ok up here,a little chilly this morning,but not bad.


I envy you your cold temps this morning...I moved south some years ago and I really miss the brisk mornings (I know, I'm crazy, but what the hell, at least it's not dangerous crazy...LOL)
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
670. Floodman
2:47 PM GMT on November 18, 2009
Quoting IKE:


I'm fine...fixing to head out the door and try and make a dollar.

Good luck on your surgery.


Thanks, Ike...good luck on that dollar...may it be two!
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
669. NEwxguy
2:44 PM GMT on November 18, 2009
Good morning,Flood,I'm doing ok up here,a little chilly this morning,but not bad.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 862 Comments: 15079
668. WxLogic
2:42 PM GMT on November 18, 2009
Good morning....

Next HURR Season should be interesting... :)
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4881
667. reedzone
2:40 PM GMT on November 18, 2009
I'm surprised tacoman hasn't come on here telling us that the nontropical low that is supposed to develop in the GOM will become a monster.. Guess he gave up?

Yes Ike, it is nice to see no arguments :)
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7334
666. NEwxguy
2:38 PM GMT on November 18, 2009
I meant to mention this earlier this week,when did TWC become a movie channel.Turned it on to get an update on my Saturday wet weather,and I'm watching the movie Misery,less and less weather on that channel.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 862 Comments: 15079
665. IKE
2:37 PM GMT on November 18, 2009
Quoting Floodman:
660

Yep, same here in Fort Worth. Looks like the first little touch of winter has arrived in Texas...

So how is everyone this morning?


I'm fine...fixing to head out the door and try and make a dollar.

Good luck on your surgery.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
664. Floodman
2:34 PM GMT on November 18, 2009
660

Yep, same here in Fort Worth. Looks like the first little touch of winter has arrived in Texas...

So how is everyone this morning?
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
663. TampaSpin
2:33 PM GMT on November 18, 2009
662. beell
2:31 PM GMT on November 18, 2009
Quoting TampaSpin:


A non-tropical Surface Low will develop near that area and move into the Northern Gulf Coast and emerge on the Atlantic Seaboard as a very nice NorEaster just in time for Thanksgiving. Here is my Tropical Update from Yesterday as Models are now supporting even more!


Well, I guess I did not understand her question. There is nothing in the GOM right now.
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 137 Comments: 15321
661. IKE
2:28 PM GMT on November 18, 2009
Quoting NEwxguy:


Your not talking about this blog are you??


LOL.


Quoting AussieStorm:

wonder what it will be like in here during my season?


Shouldn't be near as bad.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
660. RitaEvac
2:25 PM GMT on November 18, 2009
39 degrees this morning, frost on roofs.
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9625
658. NEwxguy
2:11 PM GMT on November 18, 2009
Quoting IKE:
Isn't it nice on here this time of year? No arguments...fighting...folks worried about a wave 4,000 miles away slamming into them?


Your not talking about this blog are you??
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 862 Comments: 15079
657. AussieStorm
2:11 PM GMT on November 18, 2009
Quoting IKE:
Isn't it nice on here this time of year? No arguments...fighting...folks worried about a wave 4,000 miles away slamming into them?

wonder what it will be like in here during my season?
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15749
656. beell
2:06 PM GMT on November 18, 2009
Quoting twhcracker:
well heloo what the heck is that thing in the gom??


There is some low level stratus in the Bay of Campeche. Some cooler air right behind the last front moving over warm waters. Not a worry.
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 137 Comments: 15321
655. NEwxguy
2:06 PM GMT on November 18, 2009
Quoting FreelanceHistorian:


I'm here.

Blog addiction- I haz it.

Also, if we end up moving north to escape the economic wasteland that is Florida, I want to know what I'm getting into! Speaking of cold weather, I hear my in-laws and friends talk about ice dams on the roof causing water to back up under the roof and leak through the ceilings. Wouldn't laying Christmas "rope lights" along the edge of the roofs and turning them on prevent that? Has anyone tried something to prevent this?


Christmas lights don't provide enough heat,but lots of people put heater coils along the edge of their roof to keep the ice from forming.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 862 Comments: 15079
654. IKE
2:04 PM GMT on November 18, 2009
Isn't it nice on here this time of year? No arguments...fighting...folks worried about a wave 4,000 miles away slamming into them?
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
653. IKE
2:02 PM GMT on November 18, 2009
Extended GFS and ECMWF seem to indicate a somewhat stormy and colder pattern for the eastern USA right around turkey day and beyond.

It's at least 8 days out and can change, but it looks like the winter "El Nino" pattern in the east and SE USA is about to begin.

Low at my house this morning...42.1.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
652. twhcracker
2:01 PM GMT on November 18, 2009
well heloo what the heck is that thing in the gom??
Member Since: July 30, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 1448
651. AussieStorm
2:00 PM GMT on November 18, 2009
A scorcher on its way...and maybe dust too


The mercury hit the roof today across New South Wales ahead of the scorcher predicted tomorrow and Friday.

Temperatures on and west of the ranges were enough to make lava look cool. Most towns peaked between eight-to-thirteen above the November norm. Broken Hill Airport recorded it's hottest November in twenty years, reaching 43, but it's meant to beat this again on Thursday, reaching 45.

Along the coast, though, sea breezes kicked in early enough and strong enough to make walking along the beach comfortable. Sydney city only reached 24 degrees, but it was sweatier in the west, with Penrith peaking at 31.

By Friday and Saturday the rubber will really hit the road... and melt!

Northwesterly winds will force in hot interior air. Inland, many November records will be broken as the 40 degree mark is passed. On the coast, temperatures will reach the low to mid-thirties.

Sydney will peak at 33 on Friday, but even more amazingly, Penrith and surrounds will hit 41, a feat not seen in November in five years.

A gusty change will push through the state over the weekend, although this may bring little relief. There is also a chance of dust storms similar to that of a few months ago.

- Weatherzone
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15749
649. NEwxguy
1:58 PM GMT on November 18, 2009
26 degrees this morning,just west of boston,had to do a lot of scraping of the windshield this morning.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 862 Comments: 15079
648. beell
1:53 PM GMT on November 18, 2009
Ex Ida continues to weaken and fill. Still cut off from the westerlies. Northern Atlantic upper trough axis along 55W will finally flatten the upper ridge she is embedded in as a mostly zonal southern stream jet builds in from behind. Off she goes.

SSD Northern ATL WV Loop
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 137 Comments: 15321
647. AussieStorm
1:52 PM GMT on November 18, 2009
Gee this blog is moving slower than the lose disc in my lower back.
here are the next 4 days max temps for Sydney
Thurs 93F Fri 100F Sat 99F Sun 93F. Summer has arrived. wippppeeeeee

Also A Massive Good Luck to Flood today. We all hope your op goes to plan and we see you back on the blog in a few weeks.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15749
642. pottery
1:22 PM GMT on November 18, 2009
Shucks...the hose is a bit short. But in any case, there is no moon up there. Sums up my week so far.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 23080
641. pottery
1:16 PM GMT on November 18, 2009
I wunder if my garden hose could reach the moon ?
Back soon.......
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 23080
640. HIEXPRESS
1:13 PM GMT on November 18, 2009
Water on the moon - some WU members are predicting tropical development...
APOD
Member Since: October 13, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 2155
639. pottery
1:13 PM GMT on November 18, 2009
Yeah, I heard that about Chavez too.
But I guess that if you are going to seed clouds to make rain, you first need some clouds!
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 23080
638. HIEXPRESS
1:11 PM GMT on November 18, 2009
HABS:
Monday, November 16, 2009
A harmful algal bloom has been identified in patches onshore northern and central Lee County, in the Pine Island Sound/San Carlos Bay region in Lee County, and in central
Collier County. Also, a harmful algal bloom has been identified offshore southern Lee and northern Collier counties and harmful algae have been identified onshore northern Collier County. Today through Wednesday patchy
very low impacts are possible in the Pine Island Sound/San Carlos Bay region and in central Collier County. Patchy low
to medium impacts are possible in central Lee County. No additional impacts are expected alongshore southwest Florida today through Wednesday, November 18.
Member Since: October 13, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 2155
636. pottery
12:32 PM GMT on November 18, 2009
Good Morning. In Trinidad, 11n 61w...
Hot and Hazy this morning, with a forecast of 92 F, and heat index to 104 F.
Average Nov. rainfall = 12.5" (10 yr. average)
2009 Nov rainfall to date=3/4"
10 yr lowest Nov, 2007 = 5.5"

BAH!!
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 23080
634. AwakeInMaryland
11:52 AM GMT on November 18, 2009
Silver Spring, Maryland
Mostly Cloudy
45.7 °F

Warmer than Florida panhandle?!

So much info on TS's page I can't find song.
Directions, please? Prob. right in front of my nose -- still on 1st cup of coffee.
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
633. IKE
11:39 AM GMT on November 18, 2009
I've got 42.6 degrees...outside...inland Florida panhandle.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
632. severstorm
11:36 AM GMT on November 18, 2009
Morning All, Little foggy here in w cen fl. Hey TS you are right great Duo from those two.
Member Since: November 25, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 956
631. IKE
11:35 AM GMT on November 18, 2009
First post in 4 hours....

282 hours...
25 minutes...and it's officially over...

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST WED NOV 18 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
630. TampaSpin
7:34 AM GMT on November 18, 2009
EX- IDA is still trying to wrap in the loops.....unreal!

Oh ya i added a new song...one you all have not heard a verson of probably! Taylor Swift and Def Leppard together....great Duo! Wait for it to load!
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
629. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
6:36 AM GMT on November 18, 2009
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory Number SEVENTEEN
DEPRESSION TROPICALE, FORMER ANJA (04-20092010)
10:00 AM Réunion November 18 2009
=========================================

At 6:00 AM, Tropical Depression, Former Anja (999 hPa) located at 21.6S 66.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving south-at 5 knots

RSMC Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Near Gale-force winds
======================
near the center extending up to 40 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 25.1S 67.5E - 30 kts (DEPRESSION se Comblant)
24 HRS: 29.0S 71.7E - (se Dissipant)

Additional Information
========================
Anja has weakened rapidly and is expected to merge with the cold front located to its southwest within the next 36 hours
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43671

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.