Embattled UK climate scientist steps down

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:53 PM GMT on December 03, 2009

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The embattled director of the University of East Anglia's Climate Research Unit (CRU), Dr. Phil Jones, announced that he will be temporarily standing aside as director. An independent review of his conduct in light of the emails illegally hacked from his computers last month is in progress. In a press release, Professor Jones said: "What is most important is that CRU continues its world leading research with as little interruption and diversion as possible. After a good deal of consideration I have decided that the best way to achieve this is by stepping aside from the Director's role during the course of the independent review and am grateful to the University for agreeing to this. The Review process will have my full support".

The University and the police are investigating the break-in, and it is currently unknown if this was the act of an insider or an external break-in. I think it is highly unlikely this was the work of an insider in a whistle-blower type of action, since a computer at realclimate.org was hacked into the same week (via a computer in Turkey), and the criminal attempted to upload the emails stolen from CRU to the realclimate.org server. This is not the sort of action a whistleblower would do. Dr. Gavin Schmidt of realclimate.org said in a comment yesterday that the CRU break-in appeared to have been done from the outside, into a backup mail server. It is unlikely the hacker acted alone, since hackers aren't typically intimately familiar with the details of the climate change science debate. The emails and code stolen were selectively culled by someone who appeared to have considerable expertise in climate science.

What did Dr. Jones do wrong?
So, what did Dr. Jones do wrong? For starters, he should have confronted the allegations raised by his critics immediately and talked candidly to the press about some of the specific accusations being made. For example, one of the emails contained the statement that he would like to "redefine what the peer-reviewed literature is" to exclude two questionable papers from the IPCC report. Well, that's not something a good scientist should seriously advocate, and is an impossibility, in any case. No one can redefine the peer-reviewed literature, since the rules for this are well-established an not subject to change. When I read the comment in the context it was made, it reads as a joke. There is no discussion in the hacked emails about how to go about redefining the peer-reviewed literature. In the end, the two papers Jones was referring to with this comment, McKitrick and Michaels (2004) and Kalnay and Cai (2003), ended up being cited and discussed in Chapter 2 of the IPCC AR4 report. Those intent on discrediting the science of human-caused global warming are spinning the comment differently, creating a controversy about something that is impossible to do, and was not being seriously suggested. Jones should have immediately spoken up to quash the hype on this comment.

The "trick" to "hide the decline"
Another area of concern is over a graph Dr. Jones helped construct in 1999 showing the "hockey stick" of Earth's surface temperature going back 1,000 years. This graph combined instrumental measurements made since the 1800s with older paleoclimate data (including data from tree rings) to show a continuous 1,000 year record of Earth's temperatures. The paleoclimate data after 1960 show a bogus decline in Earth's temperatures that does not agree with what modern thermometers have been measuring, due to a well-known variation in tree ring thickness as a function of time, referred to as "the decline". Thus, Jones elected to toss out the bogus paleoclimate data (using a "trick" to "hide the decline") rather than present it in the graph. The graph was not properly labeled to show this was done, so viewers of the graph would have had needed to be familiar with a 1998 paper published in Nature or the 1999 paper referenced in the caption on the graph, which explained this well-known data issue. The graph that Jones used his "trick" on was put into a 1999 report called the "WMO Statement on the Status of the Global Climate". The report was given to policy makers, but was never published in a peer-reviewed scientific journal. No reputable climate scientist believes that the paleoclimate data since 1960 is of higher quality than the instrumental record (this is discussed in detail in Chapter 6 of the 2007 IPCC report). In order to make the "hokey stick" graph less confusing, removing "the decline" from the tree ring data is a reasonable thing to do--provided one labels the graph properly. The graph was not properly labeled. Does Jones' "trick" and failure to properly label the graph constitute data falsification, or was it merely sloppy science? The hacked emails contain no suggestions that the "trick" was done to intentionally fool people, and the "trick" never appeared in the peer-reviewed scientific literature, including the IPCC reports. In Dr. Jones' words, "This is well-known and is called the "decline" or "divergence". The use of the term "hiding the decline" was in an email written in haste. CRU has not sought to hide the decline. Indeed, CRU has published a number of articles that both illustrate, and discuss the implications of, this recent tree-ring decline, including the article that is listed in the legend of the WMO Statement figure".




Figure 1. The WMO 1999 "hockey stick" figure (top) with climate reconstructions and instrumental temperatures merged, and a version (bottom) with the climate reconstructions (coloured) and instrumental temperatures (annual & summer in black) shown separately. Note "the decline" in the temperature obtained from tree ring data (green curve) in the bottom curve. Image credit: University of East Anglia.

Global warming contrarians are spinning the "trick" as reason to discredit the "hockey stick", claiming that the data was falsified to hide the fact that tree rings were telling the real story. Since the hockey stick was falsified, some claim, the entire science behind human-caused global warming needs to be questioned. This is plain ludicrous. The graph was never published in a scientific journal. Several updated versions of the "hockey stick" graph have been published in the ten years since the disputed graph was produced, and the "hockey stick" can be reproduced in essentially the same form excluding the controversial tree rings, using other paleoclimate data such as boreholes (See Mann et al., 2008, Figure 2). Furthermore, the peer-reviewed science supporting human-caused global warming is not based solely upon the "hockey stick" and the CRU data used for the last 150 years of the hockey stick graph. There are three separate data sets of global temperatures maintained by NASA, the CRU, and NOAA's National Climatic Data Center, that all show essentially the same global warming. We also have evidence from nature herself in the form of plants and animals expanding their ranges poleward, the record loss of Arctic sea ice in 2007 and record loss of multi-year Arctic sea ice this year, the shrinking of mountain glaciers, reductions in the length of freeze season in many Northern Hemisphere lakes and rivers, the shifting of spring blooms earlier in most regions of the world, and on and on and on. Again, Jones should have spoken up immediately to kill the ridiculous hype being pushed by global warming contrarians about the importance of a 10-year old graph that is now scientifically irrelevant, and was never published.


Figure 2. The "hockey stick" of global temperature anomalies since 300 A.D., as published in a 2008 paper in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences by Mann et al.. Even if one excludes tree rings (blue curve), the hockey stick looks the same.

Resistance to releasing data to other researchers
The hacked emails also show that Dr. Jones resisted releasing his data to contrarians and urged others to delete emails regarding Freedom Of Information (FOI) related requests. Many countries protect their weather data under an international agreement called World Meteorological Organization Resolution 40, which prohibits the data from being made public (this is why wunderground can't give out the UKMET model forecasts on our web site, for example). About 5% of the CRU data fell in that category, making release illegal. However, deleting emails related to FOI requests is inadvisable and implies one has something to hide. The investigation should certainly pursue the issue of whether Dr. Jones properly handled the requests to turn over his data to outside researchers. Ideally, weather data documenting Earth's climate history should be free to everyone on the planet (I am not a big fan of WMO Resolution 40). However, another aspect to this issue is the time it takes for the scientists involved to prepare the data for release. Large, complicated data sets require extensive documentation and access to related computer codes in order to process them, and making the data available to every amateur investigator interested in the data puts an unfair burden on the scientists who maintain the data sets. In particular, an amateur climate science investigator named Stephen McIntyre, who runs the web site Climate Audit, has created such an issue. McIntyre, a retired mining executive and an investor, is not a professional scientist, but has been successful identifying several technical errors made in the published literature. He has also generated a huge amount of misleading and incorrect information over the years, and has done a tremendous amount of damage to the understanding of climate science. McIntyre is intent on discrediting the science of human-caused global warming--presumably for ideological reasons, since he has no obvious ties to the fossil fuel industry--and has generated a large number of Freedom of Information requests to further his cause. One of the hacked emails, from Dr. Ben Santer, complained that McIntyre's FOI requests were intrusive and unreasonable with no scientific justification or explanation given, and appeared to be a calculated strategy to divert Santer's attention and focus away from research. It's worth reading Santer's reaction to the hacked email affair to learn more. Given such tactics by McIntyre, Dr. Jones' resistance to FOI requests from McIntyre is understandable, but appears to have been poorly handled.

The science of human-caused global warming remains unaffected
None of the hacked emails reveal any conspiracy to publish falsified or "fudged" material in the peer-reviewed scientific literature. The science of human-caused global warming will require no revision as a result of this affair. Baseless accusations of fraud, data manipulation, and conspiracy against climate change scientists stemming from the hacked emails are being massively hyped by the Manufactured Doubt industry in an effort to discredit climate scientists, since no flaw with the science can be found. Most of the public is in no position to distinguish good science from bad, so if you can create doubt, uncertainty, and confusion, you can win--or at least buy time, lots of it. The hacked email affair is all about politics, not science. Dr. Jones is an excellent scientist, but unfortunately was over-matched as a politician. It was hardly a fair fight--one scientist against the political might of the mightiest PR campaign against science ever waged, armed with some selectively culled stolen emails taken out of context.

Other posts in this series
The Manufactured Doubt industry and the hacked email controversy
Is more CO2 beneficial for Earth's ecosystems?

Next post
I'm working on a post called, "Don't shoot the messenger", and plan to run this Sunday or Monday.

Our Climate Change expert, Dr. Ricky Rood, will be in Copenhagen for Monday's start to the crucial COP15 climate change treaty negotiations. Be sure to tune into his blog for updates on the talks. Wunderground has provided financial support for several University of Michigan students to attend the talks, and I may be featuring portions of their blogs over the coming weeks.

Jeff Masters

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A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING
.

Welcome to my world!
DC is the land of northern hospitality,
and southern efficiency.

(Stolen, er, borrowed from a famous local comedian except I can't remember his famous name right now.)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
They keep pushin the snow a little farther east and south with time!




Agreed! I got my fingers crossed for yall.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Lafayette, Purdue University Airport
Lat: 40.43 Lon: -86.93 Elev: 623
Last Update on Dec 4, 1:54 pm EST

Overcast

28 °F
(-2 °C)
Humidity: 58 %
Wind Speed: W 13 MPH
Barometer: 30.20" (1023.3 mb)
Dewpoint: 15 °F (-9 °C)
Wind Chill: 17 °F (-8 °C)

Visibility: 10.00 mi
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
1122. IKE
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
They keep pushin the snow a little farther east and south with time!




Agree...I'm beginning to think the panhandle may see some(wishcasting).
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
They keep pushin the snow a little farther east and south with time!


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting tornadodude:


The Saints are better with this rugged man,

Jeremy Shockey, the beast of the clan,

The Giants released him, and to their surprise,

He caught pass after pass as he blew right on by!

YESSS! I love it! Haha...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Down 2 degrees here in 30 minutes! Bring on the freezing temps!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Need to change it just a little...


"twas the month of christmas and it was lookin' like snow"

It's all good!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Winter Weather Advisory
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1252 PM CST FRI DEC 4 2009

...A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO IMPACT SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI THIS EVENING INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...

.A STRONG GULF LOW...COMBINED WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WINTRY MIX OF
PRECIPITATION. A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER
THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE TURNING COMPLETELY TO SNOW. AT
THIS TIME...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. THE
HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL NORTH OF THE I-12 CORRIDOR AND INCLUDES
THE BATON ROUGE METRO AREA...FLORIDA PARISHES...AND SOUTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI. CLOSER TO THE COAST IN COASTAL MISSISSIPPI AND THE
NORTHSHORE OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN..SNOWFALL WILL GENERALLY BE LESS
THAN AN INCH.

LAZ034>040-046>050-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-050300-
/O.CON.KLIX.WW.Y.0001.091205T0000Z-091205T1200Z/
POINTE COUPEE-WEST FELICIANA-EAST FELICIANA-ST. HELENA-TANGIPAHOA-
WASHINGTON-ST. TAMMANY-IBERVILLE-WEST BATON ROUGE-
EAST BATON ROUGE-ASCENSION-LIVINGSTON-WILKINSON-AMITE-PIKE-
WALTHALL-PEARL RIVER-HANCOCK-HARRISON-JACKSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEW ROADS...LIVONIA...
ST. FRANCISVILLE...JACKSON...CLINTON...GREENSBURG...MONTPELIER...
HAMMOND...PONCHATOULA...BOGALUSA...FRANKLINTON...SLIDELL...
MANDEVILLE...COVINGTON...LACOMBE...PLAQUEMINE...WHITE CASTLE...
PORT ALLEN...ADDIS...BRUSLY...BATON ROUGE...GONZALES...
DONALDSONVILLE...DENHAM SPRINGS...WALKER...CENTREVILLE...
WOODVILLE...GLOSTER...LIBERTY...CROSBY...MCCOMB...TYLERTOWN...
PICAYUNE...BAY ST. LOUIS...WAVELAND...DIAMONDHEAD...GULFPORT...
BILOXI...PASCAGOULA...OCEAN SPRINGS...MOSS POINT...GAUTIER...
ST. MARTIN
1252 PM CST FRI DEC 4 2009

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS
EVENING TO 6 AM CST SATURDAY...

A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...THE FLORIDA PARISHES...AND THE BATON ROUGE
METRO AREA THIS EVENING. A CHANGE TO ALL SNOW IS EXPECTED EARLY
FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
OF SATURDAY BEFORE ENDING. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 1 INCH
ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE ADVISORY AREA. LOCALLY HIGHER
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER THE
STRONGEST SNOW BANDS.

MAJOR CONCERNS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WINTER WEATHER WILL BE
DANGEROUS ICING CONDITIONS MAINLY ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

CONDITIONS CAN DETERIORATE RAPIDLY IN WINTER WEATHER SITUATIONS...
SLOW DOWN AND ALLOW EXTRA TIME WHEN TRAVELLING. PRACTICE YOUR
WINTER SAFETY RULES...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND WATER
IN YOUR CAR IN CASE OF EMERGENCY.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting alaina1085:


HAHAHA, Amazeballs! Dont forget my man Shockey now!


The Saints are better with this rugged man,

Jeremy Shockey, the beast of the clan,

The Giants released him, and to their surprise,

He caught pass after pass as he blew right on by!
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Need to change it just a little...


"twas the month of christmas and it was lookin' like snow"
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1113. IKE
Statement as of 1:07 PM CST on December 4, 2009

... Historically early winter snow falls across southeast Texas...

Snow has never fallen this early across southeast Texas. The
previous earliest snow occurred on December 10 2008 and decembe 10
1944. Accumulating snow has fallen in a 60 mile swath from Edna
to Houston. The snow accumulations were generally on grassy areas.
Below are some preliminary snowfall totals from co- op observers
and emergency managers:

Location snow totals

Lane City 4.0 inches
Boling 4.0 inches
Wharton 3.0 inches
Fairchild 3.0 inches
Edna 2.0 inches
Pearland (west) 2.5 inches
Bay City 2.0 inches
Richmond 2.0 inches
Missouri City 1.5 inches
Sugarland 1.2 inches
hobby Airport 1.0 inches
Friendswood 0.2 inches

Elevated roads and bridges will begin to freeze toward sunset.
Motorists are urged to drive with extreme care. The snow will
taper off by 4 PM.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting tornadodude:


what traffic? LOL like anyone goes to see the Redskins anymore :) ha jk

ROFLMAO! You'd think Snyder would discount tickets and esp. exorbitant parking.

Time-Out for off-topic post, w/best intentions:

Oh, you know I forgot to mention... bless our dearly departed Abe Pollen and his family.
What a smart man, with so much kindness and vision!
It's easy to take the Metro downtown, watch a basketball or hockey game, get a great meal, don't have to pay for/search for parking. And the area has gotten...dare I say it? Attractive.
-------------
from this Matron of Maryland ("Pretty...Close" -- our Maryland-Tourism PR Campaign Slogan)...THANK YOU, ABE!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GOLSUTIGERS:



Twas the month before Christmas and no sign of snow.
New Orleans don’t care, Saints’s leven n Oh.
Dey scored um some touchdowns, Sharper intercepted a pass.
Who Dat cheered as Brady was sacked on his ass.

Sunday the Redskins. To Washington we go.

But when Black and Gold get finished we'll be 12 & 0!
Go Brees,
Go Bush,
Go Harper and Ellis,
our teams UNDEFEATED and others are jealous!



HAHAHA, Amazeballs! Dont forget my man Shockey now!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Twas the month before Christmas and no sign of snow.
New Orleans don’t care, Saints’s leven n Oh.
Dey scored um some touchdowns, Sharper intercepted a pass.
Who Dat cheered as Brady was sacked on his ass.

Sunday the Redskins. To Washington we go.

But when Black and Gold get finished we'll be 12 & 0!
Go Brees,
Go Bush,
Go Harper and Ellis,
our teams UNDEFEATED and others are jealous!



Ooh we LIKe that!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1109. Patrap
Quoting GOLSUTIGERS:



Twas the month before Christmas and no sign of snow.
New Orleans don’t care, Saints’s leven n Oh.
Dey scored um some touchdowns, Sharper intercepted a pass.
Who Dat cheered as Brady was sacked on his ass.

Sunday the Redskins. To Washington we go.

But when Black and Gold get finished we'll be 12 & 0!
Go Brees,
Go Bush,
Go Harper and Ellis,
our teams UNDEFEATED and others are jealous!



Now dats a post to really frame.
Thanx a million.

Who Dat Nation Grows as it snows..LOL!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
repost:

Local Forecast I made for my area last night at 10:30PM:

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GOLSUTIGERS:



Twas the month before Christmas and no sign of snow.
New Orleans don’t care, Saints’s leven n Oh.
Dey scored um some touchdowns, Sharper intercepted a pass.
Who Dat cheered as Brady was sacked on his ass.

Sunday the Redskins. To Washington we go.

But when Black and Gold get finished we'll be 12 & 0!
Go Brees,
Go Bush,
Go Harper and Ellis,
our teams UNDEFEATED and others are jealous!



that was amazing!!
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
1106. Patrap
Quoting atmoaggie:

I dunno. I-10 to Highland then Burbank if you can go that way should keep you out of the worst of it...but I would not call it fun no matter how you slice it.


Thats a good route seems. trying to get in touch with Dau for a earlierr pick up.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting alaina1085:

Hahaha!! Go Saints!



Twas the month before Christmas and no sign of snow.
New Orleans don’t care, Saints’s leven n Oh.
Dey scored um some touchdowns, Sharper intercepted a pass.
Who Dat cheered as Brady was sacked on his ass.

Sunday the Redskins. To Washington we go.

But when Black and Gold get finished we'll be 12 & 0!
Go Brees,
Go Bush,
Go Harper and Ellis,
our teams UNDEFEATED and others are jealous!

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:
Baton Rouge at 5:30 is gonna be wacked.

I have to adjust plans maybe.

I dunno. I-10 to Highland then Burbank if you can go that way should keep you out of the worst of it...but I would not call it fun no matter how you slice it.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
Quoting Bordonaro:


From SPC for your area

SPC AC 041620

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1020 AM CST FRI DEC 04 2009

VALID 041630Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LARGE PART OF SRN FL...

...FLORIDA...


VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED STRENGTHENING POLAR JET WILL
TRANSLATE EWD FROM CURRENT LOCATION SRN PLAINS ACROSS THE SERN
STATES BY LATER TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL RESPONSE WILL BE FOR FRONTAL BAND
ACROSS S FL TO BEGIN RETURNING NWD THIS AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT
POSSIBLY REACHING AS FAR N AS A TPA-MLB LINE OVERNIGHT.

IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE STRONG JET DYNAMICS COUPLED WITH THE INFLUX
OF THE VERY MOIST/MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS FROM THE SERN GULF OF
MEXICO WILL PROVIDE THE INGREDIENTS FOR A CONDITIONAL THREAT OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND S OF WARM FRONT PRIOR TO THE END OF
THE PERIOD...POSSIBLY BY 06Z.

GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR UPWARDS TO 40KT IN
THE SFC-1KM LAYER VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT ALONG WITH 60KT OF DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AS THE STRONG POLAR JET CROSSES THE FL PANHANDLE/SRN GA
OVERNIGHT...SUPERCELLS INCLUDING POSSIBLE TORNADOES WILL BECOME A
CONCERN TONIGHT. PRIMARY THREAT EXPECTED TO BE AFTER 06Z WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE GULF SURFACE WAVE.

BY AND SHORTLY AFTER 12Z A MORE ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE WILL POSSIBLY
BE MOVING INLAND ACROSS S FL AS SURFACE LOW WILL QUICKLY BE
REDEVELOPING OFF THE SERN COAST OVER THE WARM GULF STREAM WATERS
WITH WINDS QUICKLY VEERING TO WESTERLY DURING THE MORNING.

..HALES.. 12/04/2009


EEEK. I hate going through these overnight.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting tornadodude:


what traffic? LOL like anyone goes to see the Redskins anymore :) ha jk

Hahaha!! Go Saints!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Here is the local forecast I made for my area last night at 10:30PM:



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:

Don't worry 'bout sound...I can't do meteorology -- that's all too obvious.
Our current forecast is similar; yippee, just enough to be pretty but not enough to cause trouble...unless there's icing, because that is the worst anywhere, everywhere. I haven't seen warnings about that -- yet -- but I'm expecting because precip changing to snow?
At best, won't be much traffic because it's Saturday night, at best will just mess up some Sat. night plans, worst, alcohol-messy roads...ouch.
Should warm enough Sunday no problem with futbol (j/k), FOOTBALL game traffic.


what traffic? LOL like anyone goes to see the Redskins anymore :) ha jk
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:
Tornado risk bumped up to moderate for part of SFL tonight. Bad time to have tornado's popping up.


Lightning Impact Statement
THUNDERSTORMS: THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY LATE AS INSTABILITY AND WIND FIELDS INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM THE NAPLES AREA TO THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERE IS EVEN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND EVEN TORNADOES.



Tornado Impact Statement
TORNADOES: WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT, LEADING TO A SLIGHT RISK OF TORNADO DEVELOPMENT. THE PRIMARY RISK AREA IS FROM THE NAPLES AREA TO THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION. HOWEVER, THERE IS A MINIMAL RISK ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA AS WELL.
WATERSPOUTS: THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR TORNADIC WATERSPOUTS OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE AFTER MIDNIGHT.



From SPC for your area

SPC AC 041620

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1020 AM CST FRI DEC 04 2009

VALID 041630Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LARGE PART OF SRN FL...

...FLORIDA...


VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED STRENGTHENING POLAR JET WILL
TRANSLATE EWD FROM CURRENT LOCATION SRN PLAINS ACROSS THE SERN
STATES BY LATER TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL RESPONSE WILL BE FOR FRONTAL BAND
ACROSS S FL TO BEGIN RETURNING NWD THIS AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT
POSSIBLY REACHING AS FAR N AS A TPA-MLB LINE OVERNIGHT.

IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE STRONG JET DYNAMICS COUPLED WITH THE INFLUX
OF THE VERY MOIST/MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS FROM THE SERN GULF OF
MEXICO WILL PROVIDE THE INGREDIENTS FOR A CONDITIONAL THREAT OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND S OF WARM FRONT PRIOR TO THE END OF
THE PERIOD...POSSIBLY BY 06Z.

GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR UPWARDS TO 40KT IN
THE SFC-1KM LAYER VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT ALONG WITH 60KT OF DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AS THE STRONG POLAR JET CROSSES THE FL PANHANDLE/SRN GA
OVERNIGHT...SUPERCELLS INCLUDING POSSIBLE TORNADOES WILL BECOME A
CONCERN TONIGHT. PRIMARY THREAT EXPECTED TO BE AFTER 06Z WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE GULF SURFACE WAVE.

BY AND SHORTLY AFTER 12Z A MORE ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE WILL POSSIBLY
BE MOVING INLAND ACROSS S FL AS SURFACE LOW WILL QUICKLY BE
REDEVELOPING OFF THE SERN COAST OVER THE WARM GULF STREAM WATERS
WITH WINDS QUICKLY VEERING TO WESTERLY DURING THE MORNING.

..HALES.. 12/04/2009
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting Magicchaos:


Yeah, I just use some classic game music for my local forecast. Description has the game the music is off of and where in the game, so I hope it isn't copyright or anything.

Staying on topic, on our local news site, they say we might get a covering to an inch or two. The local mets here are pretty good with the weather and they don't really hype anything.

Don't worry 'bout sound...I can't do meteorology -- that's all too obvious.
Our current forecast is similar; yippee, just enough to be pretty but not enough to cause trouble...unless there's icing, because that is the worst anywhere, everywhere. I haven't seen warnings about that -- yet -- but I'm expecting because precip changing to snow?
At best, won't be much traffic because it's Saturday night, at best will just mess up some Sat. night plans, worst, alcohol-messy roads...ouch.
Should warm enough Sunday no problem with futbol (j/k), FOOTBALL game traffic.

Out for now. Enjoy the snow where you have it.
Tornados? Yikes again.
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Moderate = Tornadoes possible. Environment generally supports up to F1 intensity
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Tornado risk bumped up to moderate for part of SFL tonight. Bad time to have tornado's popping up.


Lightning Impact Statement
THUNDERSTORMS: THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY LATE AS INSTABILITY AND WIND FIELDS INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM THE NAPLES AREA TO THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERE IS EVEN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND EVEN TORNADOES.



Tornado Impact Statement
TORNADOES: WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT, LEADING TO A SLIGHT RISK OF TORNADO DEVELOPMENT. THE PRIMARY RISK AREA IS FROM THE NAPLES AREA TO THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION. HOWEVER, THERE IS A MINIMAL RISK ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA AS WELL.
WATERSPOUTS: THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR TORNADIC WATERSPOUTS OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

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Quoting Patrap:


..Correction,..yeppar's.

Extra Wackiness in order for about that time.


lol
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Quoting AwakeInMaryland:

Yeah, MagicC, I like your UTube broadcasts in the evening! But oh sometimes that eminent domain music you choose...well, I have volume control, I'll shut up but maybe you could borrow the music in my Safeway, it's got U2 elevator music and stuff!


Yeah, I just use some classic game music for my local forecast. Description has the game the music is off of and where in the game, so I hope it isn't copyright or anything.

Staying on topic, on our local news site, they say we might get a covering to an inch or two. The local mets here are pretty good with the weather and they don't really hype anything.
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1089. Patrap
Quoting GOLSUTIGERS:
and when is it not wacked at 5:30 on a Friday



..Correction,..yeppar's.

Extra Wackiness in order for about that time.
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Quoting GOLSUTIGERS:
and when is it not wacked at 5:30 on a Friday


LOL, Exactly
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and when is it not wacked at 5:30 on a Friday

Quoting Patrap:
Baton Rouge at 5:30 is gonna be wacked.

I have to adjust plans maybe.
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Quoting Patrap:
Baton Rouge at 5:30 is gonna be wacked.

I have to adjust plans maybe.

I would consider it. BR at that time is wack anyway because idiots cant drive. Add some rain much less winter mix= MAD chaos!
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NWS has not changed any advisories in Baton Rouge yet.

Baton Rouge Metropolitan, Ryan Field
Lat: 30.54 Lon: -91.15 Elev: 59
Last Update on Dec 4, 11:53 am CST


Mostly Cloudy

46 °F
(8 °C) Humidity: 63 %
Wind Speed: N 7 MPH
Barometer: 30.16" (1021.2 mb)
Dewpoint: 34 °F (1 °C)
Wind Chill: 42 °F (6 °C)
Visibility: 10.00 mi.



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1084. fraud
Quoting hurricanejunky:


Now there's an intelligent post. Boob of the day honors go to...drum roll....FRAUD! Congrats! See ya on the Darwin Awards...LOL


Ah and another member joins the club...congrats
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1083. Patrap
Baton Rouge at 5:30 is gonna be wacked.

I have to adjust plans maybe.
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Quoting alaina1085:

It DEF changed


Let's hope so!
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Quoting Patrap:
I tell yas,,the southern solution is looking better all the time as the Low Lingers and draws down more of the available Cold Pool to the North,..and the GOM Moisture funnels into it.

Somebody's gonna get a Big White Saturday Morning.

A Currier and Ive's Photo op for someone


At the most imo Extreme Western Florida panhandle i.e. Escamba County, gets a flurry tomorrow.
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1079. Inyo
Quoting calusakat:

Two wrongs make a right?

Is that what you are saying?



No, of course not. But it is odd that some people are more outraged about one scientist misusing statistics than they are about corporations and a complicit administration literally denying/deleting data, which was all too common during the last administration.

I don't actually have time to keep up with this blog now, but wanted to throw that out there
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1067. LOL!
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
The AOI N of Western Cuba (Red Dot) will be the focus of tonights stronger WX in SFL.


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Nice post El Conando...LOL!
Member Since: August 28, 2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 2899
Quoting MississippiWx:


Wow, moderate to heavy snow? Our NWS was talking about moderate snow at the most and it would be brief. Is the forecast changing some? I hope so!

It DEF changed
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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