The climate is changing: the Arctic Dipole emerges
The dramatic loss of Arctic sea ice in recent years has created a fundamental new change in the atmospheric circulation in the Northern Hemisphere that has sped up sea ice loss and is affecting fall and winter weather across most of the Northern Hemisphere, according to several recent studies. Arctic sea ice loss peaks in September and October, exposing a large area of open water that heats the air above it. This extra heat has helped drive September - November air temperatures in the Arctic to 1°C (1.8°F) or more above average over about half of the depth of the lower atmosphere (Figure 1). This deep layer of warm air has grown less dense and expanded, pushing the top of the troposphere (the lower atmosphere) higher. The result has been a decrease in the pressure gradient (the difference in pressure) between the North Pole and mid-latitudes. With not as much difference in pressure to try and equalize, the jet stream has slowed down in the Arctic, creating a major change in the atmospheric circulation for the Northern Hemisphere.
Figure 1. Cross section of Arctic temperature anomaly from 1000 mb (the surface) to 300 mb (roughly, the height of the top of the lower atmosphere or troposphere). Cross section is taken along the Date Line (180°W), from 60°N latitude (left side) to the North Pole (right side), for September - November for the 12-year period 1998 - 2009. Three year averages were done to reduce the amount of year-to-year noise associated with natural variation. Other cross sections along different lines of longitude show similar results, though typically with more warming aloft and less warming at the surface. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.
A new atmospheric pattern emerges: the Arctic Dipole
In a 2008 article titled, Recent radical shifts of atmospheric circulations and rapid changes in Arctic climate system Zhang et al. show that the extreme loss of Arctic sea ice since 2001 has been accompanied by a radical shift of the Arctic atmospheric circulation patterns, into a new mode they call the Arctic Rapid change Pattern. The new atmospheric circulation pattern has also been recognized by other researchers, who refer to it as the Arctic Dipole (Richter-Menge et al., 2009). The old atmospheric patterns that controlled Arctic weather--the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO), which featured air flow that tended to circle the pole, now alternate with the new Arctic Dipole pattern. The Arctic Dipole pattern features anomalous high pressure on the North American side of the Arctic, and low pressure on the Eurasian side. This results in winds blowing more from south to north, increasing transport of heat into the central Arctic Ocean. The Arctic Dipole pattern occurred in all summer months of 2007 and helped support the record 2007 summer reduction in sea ice extent (Overland et al., 2008). Overland et al., 2010 also found that the Arctic Dipole pattern tended to create an increase in easterly winds in the lower half of the atmosphere of 40% in fall, between 2002 - 2008. Fall 2008 through spring 2009 featured the old AO pattern. The new Arctic Dipole pattern re-appeared in June - July 2009, but the old AO pattern dominated in August - September, resulting in greater sea ice extent than in 2007 and 2008. The Arctic Dipole pattern was active again in October, inactive in November, and reasserted itself this December. As a result, Arctic sea ice reached a new record minimum for a 10-day period in early November, increased above record lows during late November and early December, and appears poised again to reach a new record minimum later this December (Figure 2).
Figure 2. Sea ice extent in the Arctic for this year (blue line) compared to the record low year of 2007 (green line) and 1979 - 2000 average (gray line). One could make the ice loss looks less significant by using the full satellite data record from 1979 - 2008 for the average. Image credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center.
Arctic Dipole blamed for colder winters in East Asia
It turns out that the new Arctic circulation patterns help to intensify the Siberian High, a large semi-permanent region of surface high pressure prevalent in winter over Siberia. According to Honda et al. (2009), this results in increased flow of cold air out of the Arctic in early winter over eastern Russia, Japan, Korea, and eastern China, causing colder temperatures. By late winter, the pattern shifts, resulting in colder than average temperatures from East Asia to Europe.
Arctic Dipole blamed for drier winters in Northern Europe
Francis et al. (2009) found that during 1979 - 2006, years that had unusually low summertime Arctic sea had a 10 - 20% reduction in the temperature difference between the Equator and North Pole. This resulted in a weaker jet stream with slower winds that lasted a full six months, through fall and winter. The weaker jet caused a weaker Aleutian Low and Icelandic Low during the winter, resulting in a more negative North Atlantic Oscillation--a pattern that usually brings reduced winter precipitation over Alaska and Northern Europe and increased precipitation over Southern Europe. A more negative NAO also tends to bring cold winters to eastern North America and Europe. Though it was not mentioned in the article, reduced Arctic sea ice may also cause dry early winter conditions in the U.S. and the Caribbean (Figure 3). The authors noted that strong La Niña or El Niño events can have a much larger influence on the wintertime atmospheric circulation, which will overshadow the changes due to Arctic sea ice loss.
Figure 3. Difference in early winter precipitation (November - January) between five years that had low Arctic sea ice (2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, and 2009), and five years that had unusually high Arctic sea ice extent (1981, 1984, 1986, 1989, 1993). Note that low sea ice may be responsible for dry conditions in early winter for the Caribbean and most of the U.S.
Commentary
Arctic sea ice loss appears to have created a new atmospheric circulation pattern that brings more warm air in the Arctic, creating a positive feedback loop that causes even more sea ice loss. This feedback loop increases the likelihood that an ice-free Arctic in the summer will indeed come by 2030, as many Arctic experts are predicting. It's worth noting that such an atmospheric circulation shift was not predicted by the climate models. Indeed, the loss of Arctic sea ice over the past three years exceeds what any of our models were predicting (Figure 4). While we can rightly criticize these models for their inaccuracy, we should realize that they are just as capable of making errors not in our favor as they are of making errors in our favor.
Figure 4. Arctic sea ice extent from observations (thick orange line) and 13 model forecasts used to formulate the 2007 IPCC report (light lines). The thick black line is the multi-model ensemble mean, with the standard deviation plotted as a dashed black line. Image has been updated to include the observed 2008 and 2009 measurements. None of the models predicted the record 2007 sea ice loss. Image credit: Arctic sea ice decline: Faster than forecast by Stroeve et al., 2007.
References
Francis, J.A., W. Chan, D.J. Leathers, J.R. Miller, and D.E. Veron, 2009, "Winter Northern Hemisphere weather patterns remember summer Arctic sea-ice extent", Geophysical Research Letters, 36, L07503, doi:10.1029/2009GL037274.
Honda, M., J. Inoue, and S. Yamane, 2009. Influence of low Arctic sea - ice minima on anomalously cold Eurasian winters, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L08707, doi:10.1029/2008GL037079.
Overland, J. E., M. Wang, and S. Salo, 2008: The recent Arctic warm period, Tellus, 60A, 589.597.
Overland, J. E., and M. Wang, 2010: Large-scale atmospheric circulation changes associated with the recent loss of Arctic sea ice. Tellus, 62A, 1–9.
Richter-Menge, J., and J.E. Overland, Eds., 2009: Arctic Report Card 2009, http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/reportcard.
Simmonds, I., and K. Keay (2009), Extraordinary September Arctic sea ice reductions and their relationships with storm behavior over 1979.2008, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L19715, doi:10.1029/2009GL039810.
Wu, B., J. Wang, and J. E. Walsh, 2006: Dipole anomaly in the winter Arctic atmosphere and its association with sea ice motion. J. Climate, 19, 210-225.
Zhang, X., A. Sorteberg, J. Zhang, R. Gerdes, and J. C. Comiso (2008), Recent radical shifts of atmospheric circulations and rapid changes in Arctic climate system, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L22701, doi:10.1029/2008GL035607.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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"Topic*: Updated Status of QuikSCAT
*
Date/Time(UTC) Message Issued*: 11 December 2009 1645 UTC
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Satellite(s) Involved*: QuikSCAT*
Product(s) Involved/Affected*: All QuikSCAT products*
Details:* QuickSCAT products remain out of service. Another attempt to recover will be made sometime at the end of January 2010; with probability being low of operational recovery.*
"
Oh, I hope this means at least a dip in temps tonight....
Enjoy the cold front! A taste of what has brought sub-zero temperatures to the Midwest. That H pressure area has brought temps up to 15-30 degrees below normal across 2/3 Rd's of the US. An Eskimo, a polar bear and a penguin once breathed in that cold air, LOL!
You are very fortunate, you live in the tropics. The taste of coolness comes and leaves quickly! Enjoy :0)!!
That's why it smells fishy outside. Polar bear breath...
*intermittent lurk on*
yes, it's true that the AMSR-E satellite has only been in service since 2002 and that it's data only covers the period of time when the ice was supposedly decreasing in unnatural ways. however, when you see the current year's data against other years, the effect is not as dramatic is just plotting the line against a minimum and an artificially low median line.
by the way, why is the baseline period for the NSIDC graph 1979-2000 instead of 1979-2009? excluding lower years artificially raises the "historical average" even though that average excludes the recent years of data. typically with small datasets where you need to compare to a baseline average, you use the whole range of data to formulate the average instead of a selected range unless there is a legitimate reason to do otherwise. i have never actually heard of a sound reasoning to do so (not that it's not out there).
If the artic ice were to melt and ice displaces more volume than water, wouldn't sea levels drop?
If not, why not?
Canada is busy growing the ice as quickly as possible.
A few hundred miles north of us (and far south of the pole) the temperature this morning was 42 below F (with the windchill 60 below F).
Our current temperatures are running 40 F below normals with little warming in site.
At our location (North52) the current wind chill is 33 below F, and the temperature will drop during the day.
5:47 PM GMT on December 11, 2009
Upper atmospheric data go back to 1948 (via the NCEP reanalysis data), and this data shows that the Arctic Dipole did not appear in the last half of the 20th century. Ice edge data goes back to 1900 (see below), and shows that we had very healthy amounts of Arctic sea ice during the entire 20th century, even during the Arctic warm period of the 1930s and 1940s, when Arctic temperatures were almost as warm as during the 2000s. Since the ice edge data show that we didn't have large amounts of open water in the Arctic in the 20th century, I doubt we would have seen the Arctic Dipole in the 20th century, since the extra heat from open water was not available to heat the atmosphere through a large depth. Before 1900, we had the Little Ice Age, so I think it is reasonable to assume that the Medieval Warm Period of the 1300s was the last time we had the Arctic Dipole pattern emerge.
Jeff Masters
I recently did an extensive climate study of winters in the southern U.S. and the winter of 1894-95 was a severe one by southern standards... in fact the 1890's were the snowiest in the south since weather records have been kept. In Feb 1899 a record cold wave swept through and minimum temperatures fell to below zero into parts of north Florida.
The other cold decade i realized in my studies was in the 1960'a. The winter of 1959-60 was especially snowy. Knoxville,TN recieved an astonishing 56.6 inches of snow/ice pellets that winter, a huge amount considering the average for a typical winter there was around 12 inches at that time.
This Afternoon: Snow showers and areas of blowing snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 21. Breezy, with a west wind around 24 mph, with gusts as high as 38 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 32 to 38 inches possible.
Tonight: Snow and widespread blowing snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 13. Wind chill values as low as -2. Breezy, with a west wind between 15 and 24 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 16 to 22 inches possible.
Saturday: Snow showers and widespread blowing snow before 1pm, then snow showers likely between 1pm and 4pm, then a chance of snow showers after 4pm. High near 27. Wind chill values as low as -3. West wind between 11 and 16 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1056 AM EST FRI DEC 11 2009
NYZ006-008-111800-
OSWEGO-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...LOWVILLE
1056 AM EST FRI DEC 11 2009
...INTENSE LAKE SNOWS OVER NORTHERN OSWEGO AND SOUTHERN LEWIS
COUNTIES...
A BAND OF INTENSE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OSWEGO AND SOUTHERN LEWIS COUNTIES
THROUGH MIDDAY. THIS BAND HAS INTENSIFIED IN THE PAST HOUR...WITH
SNOWFALL RATES OF 3 TO 4 INCHES PER HOUR FROM NEAR PULASKI EAST
INTO AREAS BETWEEN LOWVILLE AND PORT LEYDEN. SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TUG HILL FROM REDFIELD TO OSCEOLA ARE
REACHING AN ASTOUNDING 5 TO 6 INCHES PER HOUR.
IN ADDITION TO HEAVY SNOWFALL...WEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 35 MPH WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW. TRAVEL WILL BE EXTREMELY DIFFICULT WITHIN THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WITH NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY AT TIMES AND VERY POOR ROAD
CONDITIONS.
TRAVEL ON INTERSTATE 81 FROM PARISH TO ADAMS WILL BE EXTREMELY
DIFFICULT. EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TRAVEL WILL ALSO BE FOUND ALONG
ROUTE 177 ON THE TUG HILL PLATEAU AND ROUTES 12 AND 26 FROM
LOWVILLE SOUTH INTO NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY. IF YOU MUST
TRAVEL...BE PREPARED FOR SEVERE WINTER DRIVING CONDITIONS. TAKE
EXTRA CLOTHING OR BLANKETS WITH YOU AND DRIVE WITH A FULL TANK OF
GAS IN THE EVENT THAT YOU BECOME STUCK. ROADS ON THE TUG HILL ARE
LIKELY TO BECOME IMPASSIBLE.
Does anyone find it odd that within DAYS of Dr. M starting his series on Global Warming, there is a massive increase in the number of new bloggers that sit there and try to say it's fake?
Misinformation, indeed. This blog has been invaded by conservative think tanks and paid advertising by your Fossil Fuel Industry Overlords.
The Changing Arctic--November 1922
Is Our Climate Changing? A Study of Long-Term Temperature Trends--September 1933
Expert Says Arctic Ocean Will Soon Be An Open Sea--February 1969
Think about it, if you take a cup of water and drop a ice cube in it the water goes up, not down. Most sea ice sets or is taller than the surrounding water. So there is more volume or mass above the ocean water, which in turn if the ice melted it would raise ocean levels.
Good, logical answer with respect to long range expectations and observations. It does not, however, rule out the possibility of an individual year or even a few years with the existence of a setup like you posted on today.
Given the potential variability, I would not go so far as calling it unlikely, even.
Now if it were to persist in 8 years out of 10, that would certainly be comparable to the Medieval Warm Period, in my interpretation. (Is possible I am wrong, has happened once before)
The Hudson Bay basin, which should be just about frozen over right now, is still has about 500-600,000km^2 of open water which should freeze within the next 5-7 days with the core of some bitter arctic air about to cross the southern Hudson Bay (where the open water is). Additonally, very cold high pressure is forecast to settle of the Bering Sea, where big gains in extent are forecast over the next week.
Also, later on the month, with the AO/NAO forecast to going severely negative, colder than normal temperatures should move over the East Coast of Canada, expending seaice off the Labrador coast, north of Newfoundland and the Gulf of St.Lawrence.
The gains in these basins should ensure that seaice extent for the rest of December will remain out of record low territory.
Yep. I know someone that indirectly works for Exxon that will likely get me a Christmas present. So, I am, thereby, a shill for the fossil-fuel industry overlords and proud of it.
When I don't answer a question for a little while, it is because I am getting my answer approved by them.
The only problem is that we arent dropping ice in, we have pre-existing ice that is melting. does ice tend to displace more than just water?
you are too funny Atmo :P
as far as the ice floating above the water line, though, keep in mind that Archimede's principle still applies. the weight of water displaced by the ice above sea level is equal to the weight of that ice above the sea level, assuming the ice is completely free-floating.
Ya i just thought of that, but with sea ice and ice bergs there is a lot of the ice berg that sits above the water not displacing any water and i know that most of the ice bergs have most of there mass beneath the water until they flip from being top heavy. I still think if most of the ice melted it would raise sea level considering that ice floats on top of the water.
Yeah I think you both are right, I was just making a point, but on a large scale and with it gradually warming it would raise the sea level
yeah, makes sense
Yeah I know what you mean, thanks for clarifying it tho, I kind of had always wondered about that
6:11 PM GMT on December 11, 2009
The melting of the Arctic sea ice will not change ocean sea levels appreciably, since the ice is already floating in the ocean. Sea ice melting does slightly contribute to sea level rise since the fresh melt water is less dense than the salty ocean water it displaces. According to the sea level FAQ of Dr. Robert Grumbine of NOAA's sea ice group, if all the world's sea ice melted, it would contribute to about 4 millimeters of global sea level rise. This is a tiny figure compared to the 20 feet of potential sea level rise locked up in the ice of the Greenland Ice Sheet, which is on land.
Man that subject for some reason really make you think.
And the data details behind that plot:
"Mid-month values of sea ice concentration for the Arctic are digitized on a standard 1-degree grid (cylindrical projection) to provide a "relatively uniform set of sea ice extent for all longitudes, as a basis for hemispheric scale studies of observed sea ice fluctuations" (Walsh, 1978).
These data are a compilation of data from many sources integrated into a single gridded product by John Walsh and Bill Chapman, University of Illinois. The sources of data for each grid cell have changed over the years from infrequent land/sea observations, to observationally derived charts, to satellite data for the most recent decades. Temporal and spatial gaps within observed data are filled with a climatology or other statistically derived data.
Please note that large portions of the pre-1953, and almost all of the pre-1900 data is either climatology or interpolated data and the user is cautioned to use this data with care (see "Expert user guidance", below). "
And: "Sea ice extent data is provided by Kelly, et. al. 1988. The ice extent data is compiled for the months April-August for the majority of the period 1901-1956. In this dataset, we utilize the Kelly data to create an ice concentration data source for the early period of record. This data is given very low priority in the hierarchy of available data so that if there are data from any sources (except climatology), we replace the extended Kelly data with this new source data. The modification of the Kelly data is done in two parts: (1) conversion from ice extent to ice concentrations, and (2) temporal extension of the available data.
(1) We add a marginal sea ice zone to the Kelly ice extent data by computing average ice concentration drop-off rates for the period during which there are satellite observations. These drop-off rates indicate the rate at which ice concentrations decrease as a function of distance from open water and distance from 10/10 ice concentrations. The drop off rates vary with season; the summer melt season drop-off rate is about 0.5 that of the freeze-up season. We apply these drop-off rates to the Kelly ice extent data to create a marginal sea ice zone."
And :"Because most of the direct observations of sea ice (1870-1971 period) are from ships at sea, they are generally the most complete near the ice edge. The conditions north of the ice edge are often assumed to be 100% covered during this period. The satellite era has shown otherwise with concentrations between 70-90% frequently occurring well north of the ice edge in the post-1972 data. For this reason, we recommend using a measure of ice extent, when doing historical comparisons of hemispheric sea ice coverage for periods which include data prior to 1972. This is done by assuming that all grid points with ice concentrations greater than some threshold (15% is commonly used) is assumed completely covered by sea ice."
From: http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/guide/Data/walsh.html
Once again, the dearth of data from before the satellite era rears it's ugly head.
And "temporal extension of the available data", from above essentially means (our friend) extrapolate, but in time, not space. Could very well have glossed over a period of years that match our current conditions.
Thank you for answer that Dr. Masters.
Overcast
26 °F
(-3 °C) Humidity: 40 %
Wind Speed: W 13 G 25 MPH
Barometer: 29.87" (1013.0 mb)
Dewpoint: 5 °F (-15 °C)
Wind Chill: 15 °F (-9 °C)
Visibility: 10.00 mi
Yeah, year-to-year variability was not invented in the 50s...
I'm a shill too! Exxon pays better, though.
Our buddy Chicklit posted Exxon is hiring yesterday -- since I've already sold out to "the man", I am definitely willing to consider all reasonable offers!
Give The Gift Of Preparedness This Holiday Season
Release Date: December 10, 2009
Release Number: R5-09-093
» 2009 Region V News Releases
CHICAGO, Ill. -- It takes only one disaster to disrupt your daily life, but by taking a few steps before one strikes, you can lessen its impact. This holiday season, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security’s Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) is offering gift ideas to help keep you, your family and friends prepared.
“Disasters can happen at any time and the holiday season is a great opportunity to take simple steps to make sure that you and your loved ones are prepared,” said Janet M. Odeshoo, acting regional administrator for FEMA Region V. “The public is the most important member of our nation’s emergency response team and the more we all do to be prepared, the more successful this team will be."
Individual can take a few minutes to discuss with their family, friends and loved ones what they will do in the case of an emergency or disaster. This includes creating an emergency supply kit, developing a simple family communications plan, and staying informed about emergencies in the area.
Emergency and preparedness items that might make great gifts for friends, family or co-workers this holiday season include:
* Disaster kits for the home and office (first aid kits, food, water and prescription medications for 72 hours, extra clothing, blankets, and flashlights)
* NOAA weather radios with extra batteries
* Enrollment in a CPR or first-aid class
* Smoke detectors and fire extinguishers (for kitchen, garage, car, etc.)
* Foldable ladders for second-story escape in a fire
* Car kits (emergency flares, shovels, ice scrapers, flashlights and fluorescent distress flags)
* Pet disaster kits (food, water, leashes, dishes and carrying case or crate)
* Battery powered lamps
More information and preparedness tips can be found online at www.ready.gov and www.fema.gov.
FEMA's mission is to support our citizens and first responders to ensure that as a nation we work together to build, sustain, and improve our capability to prepare for, protect against, respond to, recover from, and mitigate all hazards.
Last Modified: Thursday, 10-Dec-2009 11:42:40
UNFRIENDLY...actually I agree with you. The amount of canned automaton posts has been increasing. They are tedious, pompous, pedantic, and SO zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz.
To be fair, have seen blow-hards on all sides of the issue.
By the way, about your handle...it's um, off-putting...sounds like you don't want people to read you.
But then, I'm a blow-hard media & public affairs gov't shill...
6:22 PM GMT on December 11, 2009
As far as we can tell, the Arctic Dipole pattern is primarily a result of Arctic sea ice loss, and is thus unique to the past decade. One may be able to use changes in previously documented oscillations in the climate such as the NAO, AO, PDO, etc to account for what you're presenting in your links.
Jeff Masters
That's awesome. The long range models unfortunately are about 15-20% accurate that far out. I also understand that this computer model keeps changing. Believe me, I'd love to see a "Christmas Snowstorm" for the S Plains and the SE US, including parts of FL!!
Now, next week, if the other computer models jump on board with this prediction, cool, then it becomes a likelyhood.
I am not trying to be "Scrooge" here, but I am not gonna sit back here and lie to you or anyone else. As of today, there is about a 15%-20% chance of a White Christmas for the Southern US.
As long as the ice that is melting is floating on the surface of the water as opposed to being on top of the ground, there will be, essentially, no change in the water level.
Why? Well a simple explanation is that it is floating, and therefore whatever the level of the water may be, if the ice melts, the water level will remain the same.
Try it with a glass of water. Fill the glass with ice cubes, preferably distilled water, and then fill the glass to near the top with more distilled water and mark it with a magic marker of some sort. Wait until the ice melts and tell us what happened. Prediction, the level of the water will remain the same.
Explanation? When water freezes, it expands, ie its volume increases. Look into icebergs and how much they float, I think that the ratio between what is at water level or below versus what is above the water line. That ratio is 6/7 of the iceberg is below the waterline. When an object floats, that means it is displacing a certain amount of water that is equal to the mass of the floating object.
Its a very simplistic explanation, if you want to see a more precise description, go to your local library.
Huge, huge sigh...
For example, this excerpt was taken from: Arctic Sea-lce Extent and Anomalies, 1953-1984
Although no Siberian low is mentioned it is assumed that with such anomalous high pressure over the Beaufort/Chukchi Seas and low ice extent in that region of the Autumn of 1982 that the Arctic Dipole pattern was in place.
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