The Deep South shivered through another frigid morning today, with low temperature records crumbling again over much of Florida. Lakeland hit 27°F, smashing the old record of 34°F; Melbourne hit 28°F, eclipsing the old record of 32°F; and West Palm Beach bottomed out at 37°F, besting the old record of 38°F. The cold wave is being driven by an unusual sharp and persistent kink in the jet stream that is being blocked from moving by a strong ridge of high pressure over Greenland. As a result, an exceptionally strong surface high pressure of 1055 mb over the North Central U.S. is pushing large amounts of cold, Arctic air southwards from Canada. No coldest January temperature records have been set yet from the cold blast, but the 500 largest U.S. cities have been averaging about 11 new daily low temperature records per day the first five days of January, according to the National Climatic Data Center. The cold will ease Friday in the Deep South, but return with a vengeance Saturday night though Monday morning, as another push of cold air descending from Canada promises to bring a cold wave that will approach the December 1989 and January 1977 cold waves in intensity, and may being some new all-time January low temperature records to the South.
Colder in Florida than Alaska and Greenland
The sharp kink in the jet stream has brought record warm temperatures to a few stations in Alaska and the Pacific Northwest this week, making much of coastal Alaska warmer than Florida. Cold Bay, Alaska, set a record high yesterday of 47°F, after recording a low temperature of 30°F. This made Cold Bay warmer than Pensacola, Florida, which had a high of 47°F and a low of 24°F. In fact, most of Florida--including Jacksonville, Tampa, Melbourne, and Tallahassee--recorded lows at or below the 27°F low recorded in Anchorage, Alaska yesterday. The jet stream kink has also brought temperatures more than 30°F above average to Greenland. The temperature in Narsarsuaq, Greenland at 10am EST today was 46°F, far warmer than most of Florida.
Figure 1. Departure of the surface temperature from average for the first three day of 2010 shows much colder than average conditions were present over the Southeast U.S., much of Europe, and Central Asia. Much warmer than average temperatures were present over the Northwest U.S., Greenland, the Arctic, and Southern Asia. A sharp kink in the jet stream was responsible for the temperature anomaly pattern. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.
Snow in Florida?
It doesn't snow very often in Florida, and the Wikipedia list of snow events in Florida lists only seven such events over the decade of the 2000s. This weekend's cold wave may be able to generate some snow over isolated regions of Central Florida, though it appears that the odds of this happening are less than 30%. The most widespread snowfall in Florida history occurred on January 19, 1977, when snow fell over much of the state, with flurries as far south as Homestead. Snow flurries also fell on Miami Beach for the only time in recorded history.
Figure 2. North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index for September 9, 2009 - January 6, 2010 (black line) and forecast from the GFS model (red lines). The NAO index was strongly negative, near -2.0, for much of December and January. Image credit: NOAA/CPC.
The winter cold blast: blame the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)
Why has the winter been so cold over Eastern North America and northern Europe? Well, don't blame El Niño. El Niño winters are rarely this cold. Instead, blame the the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The NAO is a climate pattern in the North Atlantic Ocean of fluctuations in the difference of sea-level pressure between the Icelandic Low and the Azores High. It is one of oldest known climate oscillations--seafaring Scandinavians described the pattern several centuries ago. Through east-west oscillation motions of the Icelandic Low and the Azores High,the NAO controls the strength and direction of westerly winds and storm tracks across the North Atlantic. A large difference in the pressure between Iceland and the Azores (positive NAO) leads to increased westerly winds and mild and wet winters in Europe. Positive NAO conditions also cause the Icelandic Low to draw a stronger south-westerly flow of air over eastern North America, preventing Arctic air from plunging southward. In contrast, if the difference in sea-level pressure between Iceland and the Azores is small (negative NAO), westerly winds are suppressed, allowing Arctic air to spill southwards into eastern North America more readily. Negative NAO winters tend to bring cold winters to Europe, and the prevailing storm track moves south towards the Mediterranean Sea. This brings increased storm activity and rainfall to southern Europe and North Africa.
The winter of 2009 - 2010 has seen a very strong negative NAO, causing much of our cold weather over Eastern North America and Europe. The NAO index for the month of December 2009 was -1.93, which is the third lowest NAO index since 1950 for a winter month (December, January, or February). The only winter months with a lower NAO index were February 1978 (-2.20) and January 1963 (-2.12). January 1963 was one of the coldest months on record in the UK and the Eastern U.S.. February 1978 was the coldest February on record for five U.S. states, and featured the historic blizzards in both the U.S. and UK. The NAO so far for January 2010 has continued to stay strongly negative, ranging between -1.5 and -2.1. However, the blocking ridge over Greenland is forecast to weaken next week, allowing the sharp kink in the jet stream to straighten out. This will increase the NAO index to more typical values, allowing a return of more ordinary winter weather to the U.S. and Europe.
Jeff Masters
from our porch view of sunrise this morning..totally different from the 'splendiferous' shots 1-8 taken from the top of our field overlooking the mountains
of winter in South Mississippi.
Like sand dunes or Antelope Canyon
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Most people with central air-conditioning have a heat unit as well. In the 70's the winters got quite cold for long periods. While they are used infrequently, they are good to have. The older houses in Florida were always built with a gas heater or wall units with coils. Not a good idea, but that is what they did in those days. Many older houses still have them.
Goats. January, Capricorn, Sign of the Goat.
Ask Patrap -- the Old Goat.
Much warmer & cozier than electric heat pump.
And not more expensive...at least not around here, I don't think. And if it is; it's totally worth it!!
Say Baaaaaah, Gracie!!! Staying warm Awake? It is cold here, and leave Pat alone. LOL
Link
My oh my, it looks like many record low temps are going to be set by tomorrow morning across the peninsula, as well as other areras in the Estern CONUS.
Hmm, would that funnel the moisture from the 168h Gulf storm into S. Ontario?
Wheres the Beef?
..or in his case,the Published supporting data?
I'll be awaiting that post,..LOL
Baaaaaah. Think I've mentioned on the blog before... evidently I told my nursery-school teacher I wanted to be a lamb when I grew up. Can somebody analyze that?
ADD: Got natural gas...nice and warm inside, thanks. Outside...not so much.
2213. Patrap 7:44 PM GMT on January 09, 2010
I see we have a Climate scientist aboard,a Quoter..
Wheres the Beef?
Next to the Goat??
Local reports out of East Central FL NWS this morning.
Since the beginning of December, there has been more than one giant CONUS storm per week. When the storms head out into the North Atlantic, they intensify until multiple storm centers form, and Western Europe has been hit with roughly five cyclones per week continuously since mid-December, with temperatures dropping as low as -45C (-50F) and around 200 deaths.Link It certainly does remind me of the movie The Day After Tomorrow.
While the GFS has been rather aggressive recently, many of the storms have also been predicted by other computer models. I recall some WUBloggers saying that the GFS intensified and moved the December 1 storm too rapidly, yet the storm formed just as the models predicted. The storms over the past month have all left a cold front over the Gulf of Mexico, across Mexico, and into the ICTZ in the Pacific Ocean, and sometimes the front itself would intensify and form a second system.
Saints with a Bye weekend,,,..yup "Hades and Fla" freezing over.
Bahhhhhhhhhhhh......!
I cant believe my neighbor didnt bring in her Plants,they dont look so well today
Crazy weather were having skyepony.
indeed.
Current Conditions
Uptown, New Orleans, Louisiana (PWS)
Updated: 19 sec ago
Partly Cloudy
33.8 F
Partly Cloudy
Windchill: 29 F
NOLA cooler than Red Stick,imagine dat..LOL
Baton Rouge, Louisiana (Airport)
Updated: 14 min 19 sec ago
Partly Cloudy
37 F
Partly Cloudy
Windchill: 32 F
Humidity: 42%
Dew Point: 16 F
Wind: 7 mph from the NNW
Pressure: 30.44 in (Falling)
Its going to dip into the 30s once the sun goes down, and with all this moisture, I honestly am praying it does snow in SFL..
Id be more concerned about the Temp more so than any precip,..anything falling wont be accumulating.
Make sure your outside faucets are wrapped and your autos prepared,check Coolant and Battery water level.
I think you are going a little to into this.
Just watch the radar and listen to your local weathermen. Maybe you'll see somthing.
HPC day 7.....
Spookie thought,eh?
Those icicles don't seem all that big, sometimes in S. Ontario we get icicles three feet long when snowpack on roofs melts and refreezes.
Tonight
Clear. Lows around 17. Northwest winds around 5 mph. Wind chill readings dropping to between 8 and 11 degrees.
Sunday
Mostly sunny. Highs around 40. North winds around 10 mph.
Sunday Night
Clear. Lows 12 to 16. Northwest winds around 5 mph in the evening becoming calm.
Major winter storm.
We would be wishing for no snow for the next decade.
Yep, that is exactly how I feel
Cool skye,get some pics but dont venture out if your still not 100% well.
Tonight
Clear. Lows around 18. Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph. Wind chill readings dropping to around 10 degrees.
partlycloudy
Sunday
Mostly sunny. Highs around 42. Northwest winds around 15 mph.
» ZIP Code Detail
nt_sunny
Sunday Night
Clear. Lows 16 to 21. Northwest winds around 5 mph in the evening becoming calm
NWS Melbourne continues to receive reports of sleet in northern Brevard County.
make a video of it and post it =D
Don't get me wrong I still kinda live in Miami I always wished it could snow or flurry there. Hopefully you guys get your wish.
Springs of Suntree, Melbourne, Florida (PWS)
Updated: 7 sec ago
Light Snow
35.6 °F
Light Snow Ice Pellets Mist
Windchill: 36 °F
Humidity: 93%
Dew Point: 34 °F
Wind: 5.0 mph from the SW
Wind Gust: 5.0 mph
Pressure: 30.15 in (Falling)
Visibility: 6.0 miles
UV: 1 out of 16
Clouds:
Few 1000 ft
Overcast 6000 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 32 ft
What is the time between occurrences of snow or sleet in the South Florida region?
Viewing: 2201 - 2251
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