The Deep South shivered through another frigid morning today, with low temperature records crumbling again over much of Florida. Lakeland hit 27°F, smashing the old record of 34°F; Melbourne hit 28°F, eclipsing the old record of 32°F; and West Palm Beach bottomed out at 37°F, besting the old record of 38°F. The cold wave is being driven by an unusual sharp and persistent kink in the jet stream that is being blocked from moving by a strong ridge of high pressure over Greenland. As a result, an exceptionally strong surface high pressure of 1055 mb over the North Central U.S. is pushing large amounts of cold, Arctic air southwards from Canada. No coldest January temperature records have been set yet from the cold blast, but the 500 largest U.S. cities have been averaging about 11 new daily low temperature records per day the first five days of January, according to the National Climatic Data Center. The cold will ease Friday in the Deep South, but return with a vengeance Saturday night though Monday morning, as another push of cold air descending from Canada promises to bring a cold wave that will approach the December 1989 and January 1977 cold waves in intensity, and may being some new all-time January low temperature records to the South.
Colder in Florida than Alaska and Greenland
The sharp kink in the jet stream has brought record warm temperatures to a few stations in Alaska and the Pacific Northwest this week, making much of coastal Alaska warmer than Florida. Cold Bay, Alaska, set a record high yesterday of 47°F, after recording a low temperature of 30°F. This made Cold Bay warmer than Pensacola, Florida, which had a high of 47°F and a low of 24°F. In fact, most of Florida--including Jacksonville, Tampa, Melbourne, and Tallahassee--recorded lows at or below the 27°F low recorded in Anchorage, Alaska yesterday. The jet stream kink has also brought temperatures more than 30°F above average to Greenland. The temperature in Narsarsuaq, Greenland at 10am EST today was 46°F, far warmer than most of Florida.
Figure 1. Departure of the surface temperature from average for the first three day of 2010 shows much colder than average conditions were present over the Southeast U.S., much of Europe, and Central Asia. Much warmer than average temperatures were present over the Northwest U.S., Greenland, the Arctic, and Southern Asia. A sharp kink in the jet stream was responsible for the temperature anomaly pattern. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.
Snow in Florida?
It doesn't snow very often in Florida, and the Wikipedia list of snow events in Florida lists only seven such events over the decade of the 2000s. This weekend's cold wave may be able to generate some snow over isolated regions of Central Florida, though it appears that the odds of this happening are less than 30%. The most widespread snowfall in Florida history occurred on January 19, 1977, when snow fell over much of the state, with flurries as far south as Homestead. Snow flurries also fell on Miami Beach for the only time in recorded history.
Figure 2. North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index for September 9, 2009 - January 6, 2010 (black line) and forecast from the GFS model (red lines). The NAO index was strongly negative, near -2.0, for much of December and January. Image credit: NOAA/CPC.
The winter cold blast: blame the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)
Why has the winter been so cold over Eastern North America and northern Europe? Well, don't blame El Niño. El Niño winters are rarely this cold. Instead, blame the the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The NAO is a climate pattern in the North Atlantic Ocean of fluctuations in the difference of sea-level pressure between the Icelandic Low and the Azores High. It is one of oldest known climate oscillations--seafaring Scandinavians described the pattern several centuries ago. Through east-west oscillation motions of the Icelandic Low and the Azores High,the NAO controls the strength and direction of westerly winds and storm tracks across the North Atlantic. A large difference in the pressure between Iceland and the Azores (positive NAO) leads to increased westerly winds and mild and wet winters in Europe. Positive NAO conditions also cause the Icelandic Low to draw a stronger south-westerly flow of air over eastern North America, preventing Arctic air from plunging southward. In contrast, if the difference in sea-level pressure between Iceland and the Azores is small (negative NAO), westerly winds are suppressed, allowing Arctic air to spill southwards into eastern North America more readily. Negative NAO winters tend to bring cold winters to Europe, and the prevailing storm track moves south towards the Mediterranean Sea. This brings increased storm activity and rainfall to southern Europe and North Africa.
The winter of 2009 - 2010 has seen a very strong negative NAO, causing much of our cold weather over Eastern North America and Europe. The NAO index for the month of December 2009 was -1.93, which is the third lowest NAO index since 1950 for a winter month (December, January, or February). The only winter months with a lower NAO index were February 1978 (-2.20) and January 1963 (-2.12). January 1963 was one of the coldest months on record in the UK and the Eastern U.S.. February 1978 was the coldest February on record for five U.S. states, and featured the historic blizzards in both the U.S. and UK. The NAO so far for January 2010 has continued to stay strongly negative, ranging between -1.5 and -2.1. However, the blocking ridge over Greenland is forecast to weaken next week, allowing the sharp kink in the jet stream to straighten out. This will increase the NAO index to more typical values, allowing a return of more ordinary winter weather to the U.S. and Europe.
Jeff Masters
from our porch view of sunrise this morning..totally different from the 'splendiferous' shots 1-8 taken from the top of our field overlooking the mountains
of winter in South Mississippi.
Like sand dunes or Antelope Canyon
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Yeah, I have to say that we don't have anything in the forecast but that energy out of the 4 corners is going to be passing overhead tonight; the moisture in West Texas is the leading edge...if it clouds over we won;t see the lows they're predicting; windchills in the negative single digits...haven't seen temps like that since I left St Louis
Not even in college yet in 1989 - grew up in Jersey, living here in Charleston since 1998.
Pat..too bad we can't record sounds on here...'cause that would be cool to hear you do that!
Maybe..er,maybe not,..LOL
Flood - looking out on Court Street in Fulton right now from my office. Only 3-4 inches last night, but certainly blowing around right now. And a little cold.
Make sure she blows hard enough to blow the candle out!
Tonight: Rain likely before midnight, then a chance of snow and sleet between midnight and 3am. Cloudy, with a low around 29. Wind chill values between 20 and 25. North wind between 10 and 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.
This is in Niceville fl in the panhandle!
it took a lunch break :P
Outstanding! Grew up there in the 60s, lived in Kleewood, went to Bush Elementary out by the park!
Explain to me why it cant be the same in miami FL?
More moisture coming from the pacific, and mid 30s over night
ummmmmm what happened to "global warming"?? lol
Al Gore ate it?
;)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
400 PM CST THU JAN 7 2010
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)COLD FRONT WAS NEAR
INTERSTATE 65 AROUND 3 PM WITH RAIN TO THE SOUTH AND A MIX OF
RAIN...SLEET AND LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE NORTHERN ZONES...MAINLY WEST
OF THE COLD FRONT. EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY JUST A
LITTLE BIT SOUTH TO SMOOTH OUT THE SOUTHERN BOUNDARIES BUT LEFT THE
EXPIRATION AT 06Z AS MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ENDING BY
THEN OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED IN TIME BY
EVENING SHIFT IF WE GET REPORTS OF ICING ON ROADS IN THE ADVISORY
AREA TONIGHT. SOUTH OF THE ADVISORY AREA I AM EXPECTING TO SEE SOME
REPORTS OF LIGHT SLEET OR SNOW MIXED IN WITH THE RAIN THIS
EVENING...POSSIBLY CHANGING OVER TO SNOW FLURRIES BEFORE ENDING BUT
NOT ENOUGH ACCUMULATION TO BE A SIGNIFICANT CONCERN. A PUNISHING
COLD AIR MASS WILL FOLLOW THE ARCTIC FRONT ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
WITH A HARD FREEZE EXPECTED BY MORNING OVER THE INTERIOR ZONES.
FRIDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY LOW 30S NORTH TO UPPER 30S ON THE
COAST WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A VERY COLD NIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
MIDDLE TEENS ALL THE WAY SOUTH TO INTERSTATE 10 OR SOUTH IN THE
NORMALLY COLD LOCATIONS...WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AREA WIDE
BY SATURDAY MORNING. ANOTHER COLD DAY SATURDAY WITH HIGHS 40 TO 45
BUT A BIT LESS WIND. SUNDAY MORNING LOWS IN THE TEENS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 10 AND 20 TO 25 SOUTH TO THE COAST. ANOTHER HARD FREEZE
LIKELY. THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE
UPPER TROUGH FINALLY MOVES EAST WITH SUNDAY NIGHT BEING ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT AND A HARD FREEZE AGAIN. /11
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)MADE NO CHANGES TO THE LONG
TERM BUT IN A NUTSHELL...A SLOW WARM UP THROUGH THE WEEK AFTER
MONDAY`S COLD START. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF MID TO LATE WEEK WHICH WILL BRING
PRECIPITATION BACK INTO THE FORECAST. /11
Check your WUMail...
LOL
Uptown, New Orleans, Louisiana (PWS)
Updated: 10 sec ago
Rain
47.8 °F
Rain Mist
Windchill: 48 °F
Humidity: 88%
Dew Point: 45 °F
Wind: 0.0 mph
Wind Gust: 7.6 mph
Pressure: 30.09 in (Rising)
Visibility: 2.0 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds:
Mostly Cloudy 500 ft
Overcast 1000 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 20 ft
Baton Rouge, Louisiana (Airport)
Updated: 24 min 17 sec ago
Overcast
41 °F
Overcast
Windchill: 36 °F
Humidity: 89%
Dew Point: 38 °F
Wind: 8 mph from the North
Pressure: 30.16 in (Rising)
Tonight
Mostly cloudy. Rain likely in the evening. Snow and light sleet likely late in the evening...then slight chance of flurries after midnight. Little or no snow and sleet accumulation. Lows in the lower 20s. North winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts to around 30 mph. Chance of precipitation 70 percent.
Pensacola,FL....
Tonight
Rain and light sleet in the evening...then chance of rain and snow after midnight. No snow and sleet accumulation. Lows 24 to 29. West winds 5 to 15 mph becoming north 10 to 20 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation 90 percent.
Crestview,FL.....
Tonight
Rain and light sleet in the evening...then chance of rain and snow after midnight. Little or no snow and sleet accumulation. Lows in the lower 20s. West winds 5 to 15 mph becoming north after midnight. Chance of precipitation 80 percent.
It went to go see "Avatar" at the movies. It'll be back soon! Enjoy the break!
Late Afternoon: Rain. Steady temperature around 46. Southwest wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%.
Tonight: Rain before midnight, then a chance of rain and snow between midnight and 3am, then a slight chance of flurries after 3am. Low around 29. Wind chill values between 20 and 25. North wind between 10 and 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.
interesting..
I heard it was on the TBS repeat all night :P
Candle?? More like 50 freakin' candles. But I ain't skeered...bring it on!!! LOL
Thanks to all of you for the birthday wishes! Now I'm off to watch my Longhorns win a 5th National Championship. Peace, Love and HOOK 'EM!!! \m/
Wow! I hope that one isn't being used for NCEP models and/or anything at NCDC.
In other news, my phone just rang and it was our parish president, Kevin Davis, announcing that all St. Tammany Parish schools would be closed tomorrow due to "extreme winter weather conditions".
More bull-dookey.
How is erring on the side of Caution Bull?
The wind chills alone require action .
almost droppin 2 degree's an hour.. o snap!
Tropical Cyclone Advisory Number FOURTEEN
CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE EDZANI (08-20092010)
22:00 PM Réunion January 7 2010
======================================
At 18:00 PM UTC, Intense Tropical Cyclone Edzani (927 hPa) located at 14.9S 78.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 100 knots with gusts of 140 knots. The cyclone was reported as moving west-southwest at 9 knots.
Dvorak Intensity: T6.0/6.0/D2.0/18 HRS
Hurricane Force Winds
======================
40 NM from the center
Storm Force Winds
==============
60 NM from the center
Gale-Force Winds
=================
100 NM from the center
Near Gale-force Winds
======================
160 NM from the center extending up to 200 NM in the southern semi circle
Forecast and Intensity
=====================
12 HRS: 15.5S 77.7E - 105 knots (CYCLONE Tropical Intense)
24 HRS: 16.2S/ 6.3E - 110 knots (CYCLONE Tropical Intense)
48 HRS: 17.5S 72.7E - 90 knots (CYCLONE Tropical Intense)
72 HRS: 19.9S 69.4E - 70 knots (CYCLONE Tropical)
Additional Information
=========================
The system continues to intensify due to very good environmental conditions, radius of maximum winds is lowering. Microwave pictures (F16 at 1403z and TRMM at 1406z) shows a changing eye cycle.
System keeps on tracking globally southwest, the steering flow is a subtropical ridge in its southeast existing in the low and mid troposphere.
Upper level divergence is good specially equatorward. A poleward outflow should build between 12-24 hours due to a short wave upper level trough southward. System is also over high heat content waters, but up to 24-36 hours, sea surface temperature will be the limitating parameter and induce the weakening of the system.
lookin' good in Southern Calif!!!!!
;)
Statement as of 4:12 PM CST on January 07, 2010
... Wind Chill Advisory remains in effect from 9 PM this evening
to 10 am CST Friday...
Wind chills are expected to drop below 13 degrees at times
tonight for areas along and north of a line from Morgan City... to
New Orleans... to Pascagoula. The lowest wind chill readings will
occur along and north of the I 10/12 corridor where single digit
readings will occur... with wind chill readings possibly below 5
degrees in southwestern Mississippi. Wind chill readings should
rise above advisory criteria by 9 am CST Friday but conditions
will remain very cold across the area with dangerous wind chills
likely developing once again Friday night.
Precautionary/preparedness actions...
A Wind Chill Advisory means that very cold air and strong winds
will combine to generate low wind chills. This will result in
frost bite and lead to hypothermia if precautions are not taken.
If you must venture outdoors... make sure you wear a hat and
gloves.
24/rr
Mandeville forecast,Wu
I do not think we will have anything resembling unsafe driving conditions in this parish by sunrise tomorrow...
And nothing else should nearly threatening enough that schools need to be closed.
*gasp* a weather post! ;) jk Amy
right... those 15 degree wind chills? must be tough to live through. its called a jacket
If this comes to pass are we looking at Sunday? Will this mainly be a central Florida thing?
I agree, this is not the shortwave the models predicted, it looks healthier on the water vapor. Someone mentioned on here that the pattern is very similar before the 1989 storm hit. High is coming down, a bit stronger then the 1989 high, with a southern stream of moisture.. Snow will easily fall in Northern to Central Florida Friday night into Saturday morning. Maybe an inch of snow where the heaviest snow falls.
Viewing: 401 - 451
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