The extremely wet and windy Nor'easter that plowed across the northern tier of states has left moderate to major flooding in its wake over both the Midwest and Northeast. In the Northeast, the storm dropped more than five inches of rain in New Jersey, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Connecticut, and moderate to major flooding is occurring in these states. Flooding was particularly severe in Rhode Island on the Pawtuxet River in Cranston, where the river crested a record six feet over flood stage, forcing evacuations. Major flooding was also occurring in New Jersey, where the Passaic River at Little Falls is cresting at five feet over flood stage.
In the Midwest, snow melt and heavy rains have swollen the Red River in North Dakota and Minnesota to near flood stage, and the river is expected to crest two feet above major flood stage by Sunday morning, and one foot above one of the permanent dikes on the river. In Fargo, ND, the Red River is expected to crest Saturday at 38 feet, three feet below the record of 41 feet set last year. Many rivers in Iowa are in flood and expected to crest above major flood stage on Thursday or Friday this week, including the Des Moines River in northern Iowa. In Des Moines, flooding on the Des Moines River is expected to be moderate, but a levee that failed in the floods of 1993 and 2008 is leaking, and residents of the area are evacuating, according to media reports.
Figure 1. Estimated precipitation for the seven day period ending at 8am EDT Monday March 15, 2010. Image credit: NOAA.
Tropical Cyclone Tomas roars through Fiji Islands
Tropical Cyclone Tomas roared through the eastern portion of the Fiji Islands as a major Category 3 storm with 130 mph winds yesterday. Tomas sideswiped the two largest islands in the chain, destroying 50 buildings, causing extensive power outages, and claiming one life. The cyclone made a direct hit on several of the smaller islands to the east of the main islands, and the extent of damage on these islands is unknown, but undoubtedly very heavy.
Tropical Cyclone Ului weakens, may threaten Australia
The first Category 5 tropical cyclone of the year, Tropical Cyclone Uliu, has weakened from its impressive peak as a Category 5 storm with 160 mph winds to a low-end Category 4 storm with 132 mph winds. Ului is over the open waters of the South Pacific, east of Australia, and is projected to significantly decay as the week progresses, due to high wind shear. Ului may be a threat to the Queensland coast of Australia by the end of the week, but should be at tropical storm strength by then.
Figure 2. Tropical Cyclone Ului (left) and Tropical Cyclone Tomas (right). Over the Solomon Islands, Tropical Cyclone Ului had maximum sustained winds of 130 knots (240 kilometers per hour, 150 miles per hour) and gusts up to 160 knots (300 km/hr, 180 mph). Over Fiji, Tropical Cyclone Tomas had maximum sustained winds of 115 knots (215 km/hr, 132 mph) and gusts up to 140 knots (260 km/hr, 160 mph). The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA's Terra and Aqua satellites captured both storms in multiple passes over the South Pacific on March 15, 2010, local time. The majority of the image is from the morning of March 15 (late March 14, UTC time) as seen by MODIS on the Terra satellite, with the right portion of the image having been acquired earliest. The wedge-shaped area right of center is from Aqua MODIS, and it was taken in the early afternoon of March 15 (local time). Image credit: NASA.
Portlight looks to build permanent shelters in Haiti
On February 26th, torrential rains brought more than five feet (1.5 m) of flood water into the streets in the coastal city of Les Cayes, Haiti, an area unscathed by the massive January 2010 earthquake. Eleven people were killed during this storm, with the rainy season still two months away. This deadly flood serves as a reminder that the people of Haiti are highly vulnerable to disastrous flooding during this year's rainy season. A vast number of the survivors are living in "tent" cities where most of the "tents" are really nothing more than bed sheets draped over ropes and sticks; the potential for a second humanitarian disaster is significant. With this in mind, Portlight.org has been exploring fast, inexpensive methods of providing solid, permanent, safe shelter for survivors of the earthquake. They have found a number of groups looking at using shipping containers for this purpose. Shipping containers are steel-reinforced boxes used for shipping goods overseas. Portlight's on-site coordinator in Haiti, Richard Lumarque, has identified an engineer that has come up with a number of designs for converting these containers into dormitories, offices, medical facilities and individual homes; his plan for a dormitory container is below. Portlight is looking to help with this effort; please visit the Portlight.org web site to learn more and to donate to this worthy cause.
Figure 3. A proposed design for a simple dormitory that can accommodate twelve people, built from a shipping container.
I'll have a new post on Wednesday or Thursday.
Jeff Masters
2010 NorEaster Flood in Manville, NJ
Small bridge in Haddonfield flooded at Cooper River along Kings Highway on 3/13/10
Lower Berkshire Valley Rd.
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Slow!
haha that good or bad?
hey Hydrus
I should definitely read back then, what was it about?
I was thinking I should become a paying member because I depend on this site for up to date information. So far I have been allowed to watch and comment.
Kinda hoping the blog police will kick in soon.
Come to think: most of my comments have been somewhat off topic But:
What I do not admire here is endless quotes of each other.
Unless you are quoting me, of course
The JTWC has lowered their forecasted landfall intensity to 60 knots, a tropical storm, but I will continue to hold on to my forecast for a stronger storm of minimal Cat 2 intensity at landfall until I see evidence to the contrary.
^^Click Visible Image for Loop^^
Yep! Starts each year at Jan 1 00:00:00 UTC, ends Dec 31 23:59:59 UTC (except when we have a leap second when it ends at 23:59:60 UTC).
Retrospective followup of the Yellowstone swarm a bit back is HERE
Historical graphs of the number of Yellowstone quakes 1994-2009 are HERE
Haven't looked for SoCal sites similar to YVO, just rely on friends out there saying things like, "well they tell us there was another one..."
I have yet to understand why they keep calling for a tropical storm or weak Cat 1 at landfall. The JTWC seems really over-jumpy on blaming wind shear for weakening cyclones and also forecasting it to be a weakening factor. So far the Australians have done a better job with Ului than the JTWC.
I'm out for the night, goodnight all.
Just checking the YVO site since no one had enthused about the swarm in a while and KOG's maps aren't showing anything there now. Typical for Y'stone over the years
4.4, smack dab in the middle of Los Angeles. About 12 miles deep.
Actually, I'm glad to see some stress relief in that area.
Pat, this is one of the more memorable "recent" storms that affected the Bahamas. My parents still recall it when talking "old story", as they say here. Although Betsy's eye remained east of the Bahamas prior to the loop, it apparently still caused quite extensive damage in the Southeastern Bahamas due to heavy rains and storm surge on the NE facing coasts....
Certainly this was memorable storm.
Of course, in S. FL a "ridge" is maybe 30 feet high.... lol
Good Morning.
Did you receive my message from yesterday?
You know it is going to be an odd day when the temperature is 10 degrees warmer than the previous morning but the forecast calls it a cooler day.
erin go bragh
Its name change had nothing to do with a geogrpahical and topical change and EVERYTHING to do with a chnage of demographic. Cutler Ridge is now a high income nieghborhood therefore Cutler Bay sounded better. Locals still call it "The Ridge"
Haven't heard of anything or seen a report.
You should bookmark this link to the USGS recent earthquake monitor. Very valuable info...
AOI
AOI
AOI
AOI
Humor in Comments
TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN No.1
Issued at 10:45pm EST on Wednesday the 17th of March 2010
At 10 pm EST Wednesday, Severe Tropical Cyclone Ului [Category 4] with central
pressure 950 hPa was located
over the north-east Coral Sea near latitude 14.4 south longitude 158.0 east,
which is about 1200 km northeast of Mackay and 1380 km east of Cooktown.
The cyclone is moving south southeast at about 6 kilometres per hour.
Severe Tropical Cyclone Ului is expected to continue moving in a southerly
direction, and remain well offshore overnight tonight and during Thursday.
On Friday the cyclone is expected to turn west-southwest and begin moving closer
to the Queensland coast. On current predictions the most likely scenario is for
the cyclone to impact the central Queensland coast during the weekend. However,
it is important to understand that some uncertainty remains in this outlook
period.
The windy conditions over much of the Queensland east coastal waters will
continue due to the tight pressure gradient generated by a combination of a high
pressure system situated in the Tasman Sea and Severe Tropical Cyclone Ului.
Seas and swell are expected to gradually increase along much of the Queensland
east coast and produce dangerous surf conditions on the exposed coasts.
The next Information Bulletin will be issued by 5 am EST Wednesday.
_________________________________________________________________________________________________
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1243 UTC 17/03/2010
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ului
Identifier: 09U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 14.4S
Longitude: 158.0E
Location Accuracy: within 10 nm [20 km]
Movement Towards: south southeast [162 deg]
Speed of Movement: 3 knots [6 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 90 knots [165 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 125 knots [230 km/h]
Central Pressure: 950 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 150 nm [280 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 150 nm [280 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 150 nm [280 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 150 nm [280 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of Maximum Winds: 15 nm [30 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T5.0/5.5/W0.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 200 nm [370 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
12: 18/0000: 15.3S 158.2E: 045 [085]: 090 [165]: 950
24: 18/1200: 16.4S 158.0E: 070 [130]: 090 [165]: 950
36: 19/0000: 18.0S 157.1E: 105 [190]: 090 [165]: 950
48: 19/1200: 19.3S 155.3E: 135 [250]: 090 [165]: 950
60: 20/0000: 20.3S 152.9E: 185 [340]: 090 [165]: 950
72: 20/1200: 20.9S 150.4E: 230 [425]: 090 [165]: 948
REMARKS:
Recent imagery shows Severe Tropical Cyclone Ului as a symmetric system,
although cloud tops have continued to warm in the past 12 hours, indicating some
weakening. Dvorak analysis based on an Eye pattern DT=5.0 based on MG surround
with OW eye and an adjustment for a banding feature to the north of the system.
MET and PT both suggest 5.0. CI maintained at 5.5. The upper level pattern
generally remains favourable with strong poleward outflow associated with an
upper level trough to the south. Possibly the recent weakening trend is due to
ocean upwelling resulting from the slow movement in the past 48 hours.
Steering remains light with forecast slow southerly movement expected in the
next 24 hours. From this time Ului should accelerate and track to the southwest
then to the west southwest towards the Queensland coast on Friday as a mid-level
ridge develops to the south of the system.
While some weakening may continue in the next 24 hours as Ului tracks slowly to
the south, forecast intensity is held at 90 knots [category 4] through the
forecast period. In general the upper level pattern should remain conducive for
Ului to remain at severe classification through to landfall.
At this stage a severe impact on the Queensland coast is likely later on
Saturday and/or Sunday.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 17/1900 UTC by Brisbane
TCWC.
Anytime. Interesting article.
Saw Fargo, ND has let the kids out of school to fill sandbags, worst is yet to come..
purple is major flooding.
Think they have had one two false alarms in the last few months. Or it was a test.
Here is link to an exercise this month.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/sju/?n=lantex2010
Example, off the coast of SW LA:
Plotted locations and map here: http://gpsmet.noaa.gov/test/
Little news article: http://www.2theadvocate.com/news/87869352.html
Good morning, atmo! Did you recieve my email? I got an error message but I think it may have gone through
Excerpt of comments from Dr. Masters on QuikScat:
"It's going to be a big deal for shipping interests out over the open ocean," said Jeff Masters, meteorologist and founder of Weather Underground, citing a 2008 report on the satellite.
It could also make a difference in the hurricane center's ability to pinpoint the radius of tropical-storm force winds in a hurricane, which could affect coastal communities.
The loss of QuikSCAT should not affect landfall predictions and tracking, Masters said. The nation's hurricane hunter aircraft, which can fly into a storm four times a day, better calculate wind speeds and other dynamics as hurricanes near land.
Masters called it "a shame" that the nation would have to go without a QuikSCAT for at least five more years.
No, I did not.
WUmail.
Happy St Patricks Day
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