Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Red River rising: 18th consecutive year of flooding--why?

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:08 PM GMT on March 19, 2010

The Red River at Fargo, North Dakota continues to rise, with a peak expected Sunday at the 4th highest flood level observed in the past century. "Major" flood level is 30 feet, which the river surpassed on Wednesday, and the river is expected to crest near 38 feet on Sunday, just 2.8 feet below the record set last year. Flood stage is eighteen feet, and the Red River has now reached flood stage at Fargo for eighteen consecutive years, according to the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. Prior to this remarkable stretch of flooding (which began in 1993), the river flooded in just 29 of 90 years. This year's flood is rated as somewhere between a 50-year and 100-year flood. Last year's record flood was a 100-year flood. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers lists the 10-year flood level for the Red River at Fargo to be 10,300 cubic feet per second. A 10-year flood, historically, has a 10% chance of occurring in a given year. In the last twenty years, the Red River has had eight 10-year floods--one every 2.5 years, on average. This year is the fourth year out of the past five with a 10-year flood. Clearly, flooding has increased significantly along the Red River over the past twenty years.

Figure 1. Current and forecast flood stage for the Red River of the North at Fargo, ND. You can access images like these using our wundermap for Fargo with the "USGS River" layer turned on. Click on the icon for USGS station 05054000, then hit the "click for graph" link.

Reasons for flooding: landform factors
According the U.S. Geological Survey, the unique landform characteristics of the Red River Valley make it highly susceptible to flooding. These factors include:

1) A relatively shallow and meandering river channel--a shallow channel holds less water and the meandering can cause flow to slow down as the channel makes its turns, causing over-bank flooding.

2) A gentle slope (averaging 0.5 to 1.5 feet per mile) that inhibits channel flow and encourages overland flooding or water "ponding" (especially on even, saturated ground) in the basin.

3) The northerly direction of flow--flow in the Red River travels from south (upstream) to north (downstream). The direction of flow becomes a critical factor in the spring when the southern (upstream) part of the Red River has thawed and the northern (downstream) part of the channel is still frozen. As water moves north toward the still frozen river channel, ice jams and substantial backwater flow and flooding can occur.

Figure 2. Peak flow of the Red River at Fargo, North Dakota through time. The two largest flow rates occurred last year (2009), and in 1997. The projected crest for Sunday (red circle) would be fourth greatest flood since reliable records began in 1901. Image credit: U.S. Geological Survey.

Reasons for this year's flood: highly unfavorable weather conditions
The USGS also cites five weather factors that can act to enhance flooding along the Red River. All five of these factors occurred to a significant degree this year:

1) Above-normal amounts of precipitation in the fall of the year that produce high levels of soil moisture, particularly in flat surface areas, in the basin. North Dakota had its 22nd wettest fall in the 115-year record in 2009.

2) Freezing of saturated ground in late fall or early winter, before significant snowfall occurs, that produces a hard, deep frost that limits infiltration of runoff during snowmelt. Fargo had a November that was much warmer than average, followed by a sudden plunge to below-zero temperatures by the second week of December. This froze the saturated ground to a great depth.

3) Above-normal winter snowfall in the basin. North Dakota had a top 15% winter for precipitation, with the period December 2009 - February 2010 ranking 15th wettest in the past 115 years.

4) Above-normal precipitation during snowmelt. Precipitation for March 1 - 18 has been 1.41", compared to the average of 0.61".

5) Above-normal temperatures during snowmelt. High temperatures in Fargo have averaged 6°F warmer than normal for March 1 - 18.

Urbanization increases flooding
Urbanization has had a major impact on increasing flooding not only along the Red River, but in every river basin in the U.S. Many cities and developed areas are located in flood plains next to major rivers and their tributaries. Highways, streets, parking lots, sidewalks, and buildings now cover large areas of the ground that used to absorb excess rain water and slow the rate at which run-off from precipitation and melting snow reached rivers. By developing large portions of our flood plains, run-off now reaches rivers more quickly, generating higher floods.

Building levees and flood defenses increases flood peaks
Defending ourselves against floods has made floods worse. Every time a new levee is built, or an old floodwall raised in height to prevent overtopping, more and more water is forced into the river bed, which raises the height of the flood. Flood waters that used to be able to spread out over their natural flood plains are now forbidden from spilling out over newly developed land in flood plains. For example, proposed improvements to the flood defense system in Fargo could cause a 4 - 10 inch rise in floods immediately downstream from the city, according to the Army Corps of Engineers.

Precipitation is increasing
As the climate warms, evaporation of moisture from the oceans increases, resulting in more water vapor in the air. According to the 2007 IPCC report, water vapor in the global atmosphere has increased by about 5% over the 20th century, and 4% since 1970. Satellite measurements (Trenberth et al., 2005) have shown a 1.3% per decade increase in water vapor over the global oceans since 1988. Santer et al. (2007) used a climate model to study the relative contribution of natural and human-caused effects on increasing water vapor, and concluded that this increase was "primarily due to human-caused increases in greenhouse gases". This was also the conclusion of Willet et al. (2007). This increase in water vapor has very likely led to an increase in global precipitation. For instance, over the U.S., where we have very good precipitation records, annual average precipitation has increased 7% over the past century (Groisman et al., 2004). Precipitation over the Red River drainage basin increased by about 10 - 20% during the 20th Century (Figure 3.) The same study also found a 14% increase in heavy (top 5%) and 20% increase in very heavy (top 1%) precipitation events over the U.S. in the past century. These are the type of events most likely to cause flooding. Kunkel et al. (2003) also found an increase in heavy precipitation events over the U.S. in recent decades, but noted that heavy precipitation events were nearly as frequent at the end of the 19th century and beginning of the 20th century, though the data is not as reliable back then.

Figure 3. Change in precipitation over the U.S. between 1900 - 2000, from the U.S. Cooperative network. Precipitation in the Red River drainage area increased by 10 - 20% over the 20th century. Image credit: Contemporary Changes of the Hydrological Cycle over the Contiguous United States: Trends (Groisman et al., 2002).

The future of flooding
As the population continues to expand, development in flood plains and construction of new levees and flood protection systems will continue to push floods to higher heights. With global warming expected to continue and drive ever higher precipitation amounts--falling preferentially in heavy precipitation events--it is highly probable that flooding in the Red River Valley--and over most of the northern 2/3 of the U.S. where precipitation increases are likely--will see higher and more frequent floods. With these higher and more frequent floods comes the increased risk of multi-billion dollar disasters, when a record flood event overwhelms flood defenses and inundates huge areas of developed flood plains. Obviously, we need to make smart decisions to limit development in flood plains to reduce the cost and suffering of these future flooding disasters.

References
Kunkel, K. E., D. R. Easterling, K. Redmond, and K. Hubbard, 2003, "Temporal variations of extreme precipitation events in the United States: 1895.2000", Geophys. Res. Lett., 30(17), 1900, doi:10.1029/2003GL018052.

Groisman, P.Y., R.W. Knight, T.R. Karl, D.R. Easterling, B. Sun, and J.H. Lawrimore, 2004, "Contemporary Changes of the Hydrological Cycle over the Contiguous United States: Trends Derived from In Situ Observations," J. Hydrometeor., 5, 64.85.

Milly, P.C.D., R.T. Wetherald, K.A. Dunne, and T.L.Delworth, Increasing risk of great floods in a changing climate", Nature 415, 514-517 (31 January 2002) | doi:10.1038/415514a.

Santer, B.D., C. Mears, F. J. Wentz, K. E. Taylor, P. J. Gleckler, T. M. L. Wigley, T. P. Barnett, J. S. Boyle, W. Brüggemann, N. P. Gillett, S. A. Klein, G. A. Meehl, T. Nozawa, D. W. Pierce, P. A. Stott, W. M. Washington, and M. F. Wehner, 2007, "Identification of human-induced changes in atmospheric moisture content", PNAS 2007 104: 15248-15253.

Trenberth, K.E., J. Fasullo, and L. Smith, 2005: "Trends and variability in column-integrated atmospheric water vapor", Climate Dynamics 24, 741-758.

Willett, K.M., N.P. Gillett, P.D. Jones, and P.W. Thorne, 2007, "Attribution of observed surface humidity changes to human influence", Nature 449, 710-712 (11 October 2007) | doi:10.1038/nature06207.

Links
A good way to track the flooding event is to use our wundermap for the Red River with the USGS River layer turned on.

The Fargo Flood webpage of North Dakota State University, Fargo, has some excellent links.

I'll have a new post on Monday or Tuesday.

Jeff Masters

Red River Flood 2006 (mw25)

The water level of the Red River when I took this photo was 47.2 feet, 19.2 feet above flood stage and the 6th highest level in Grand Forks' history. The river is expected to crest at 47.4 feet on Wednesday morning. Luckily, no homes have been lost in the Grand Forks area as of yet due to the flooding.

Fargo Flood 2009 - Elm & 15th Ave. N. (tliebenow)

Picture says it all. Clay dike built to contain the Red River in North Fargo.

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901. Bordonaro 8:20 PM GMT on March 21, 2010
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0202 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0215 PM CDT SUN MAR 21 2010 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 211915Z - 212045Z A SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP/INCREASE THROUGH 20-21Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL/EAST CENTRAL FL PENINSULA. A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. A RELATIVE MAXIMA OF SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS ARE NOTED COINCIDENT WITH RECENT CLOUD BREAKS ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL FL PENINSULA...SOUTH OF A NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED/CONVECTIVE LINE INDUCED RAIN-COOLED EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY. AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTIVE LINE...SOME QUASI-DISCRETE CELLULAR DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN NOTED OVER THE PAST HOUR IN THE GENERAL VICINITY OF SEBRING/AVON PARK. WHILE A WARM LAYER ALOFT AROUND 700-800 MB NOTED PER A 16Z XMR OBSERVED RAOB/MORE RECENT ACARS SOUNDINGS MAY STILL BE CAPPING MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR...NEAR SURFACE CINH CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY ERODE GIVEN CLOUD BREAKS COINCIDENT WITH THE CONTINUED STEADY NORTHWARD DEVELOPMENT OF UPPER 60S/AROUND 70 F SURFACE DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FL PENINSULA. AN INCREASINGLY WARM/MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...AND SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL/STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND PROFILES PER MLB/TBW DERIVED WSR-88D VWP DATA...SUPPORTS SOME POSSIBILITY FOR AN INCREASING DAMAGING WIND/TORNADO RISK OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...AT LEAST IN AN ISOLATED SENSE. THIS WOULD BE VIA QUASI-DISCRETE DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF/STORM MERGERS WITH THE CONVECTIVE LINE AND/OR LINE-EMBEDDED TYPE CIRCULATIONS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS/POSSIBLY A TORNADO...PERHAPS MOST LIKELY AS STORMS INTERACT WITH THE EAST COAST VICINITY SEA BREEZE. ..GUYER.. 03/21/2010 Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785

902. winter123 8:29 PM GMT on March 21, 2010
Just randomly saw Bastardi says big widespread snow event for Friday and Saturday for the northeast. I see nothing even close to that on this model though. Thoughts??? Member Since: July 29, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 1706

903. atmoaggie 8:32 PM GMT on March 21, 2010
Quoting Skyepony: The dynamic models want to go really cold & quicker.. It is pouring here now.. Hmm. A cliffhanger-plunge... Could be that we go into La Nina...rough possible severe wx season next year. Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461

904. Patrap 8:34 PM GMT on March 21, 2010
Dueling weather services: Was either right? Reality fell far short of dire predictions. But even the low end of the forecast was wrong February 26, 2010\|By Daniel Patrick Sheehan \| and Brian Callaway OF THE MORNING CALL Reporters Frank Warner and Scott Kraus contributed to this story. For the Lehigh Valley, it's hard to say who came out ahead in the forecasting duel: the flamboyant AccuWeather or the conservative National Weather Service. Though both agencies predicted a significant storm, AccuWeather, a for-profit forecasting agency based in State College, had touted it as a blockbuster in the making, a hurricane with snow, a paralyzing blizzard, a blast of historic proportions. The government-run weather service had suggested that AccuWeather was abusing the thesaurus. In any case, many school districts decided on Wednesday to cancel Thursday classes; emergency officials hauled out the emergency plans one more time; the National Guard geared up for another round of snow patrol. Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 377 Comments: 112944

905. winter123 8:42 PM GMT on March 21, 2010
98W is a monster storm for march. Looks like its having problems organizing still. What do models say for this storm? Just eyeballing it looks like a recurve near the phillipenes... probably not over TS strength. Member Since: July 29, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 1706

907. Hurricanes101 8:52 PM GMT on March 21, 2010
Quoting winter123: 98W is a monster storm for march. Looks like its having problems organizing still. What do models say for this storm? Just eyeballing it looks like a recurve near the phillipenes... probably not over TS strength. WU front page says it is now TD 2W Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 6930

908. Patrap 8:53 PM GMT on March 21, 2010
Despite no storms, insurers say they've been battered Despite four years without a South Florida hurricane, insurance companies say they can't turn a profit. On the table: rate deregulation. BY BEATRICE E. GARCIA bgarcia@MiamiHerald.com After four hurricane-free years in South Florida, insurance companies should have been raking in the profits. All that premium money pouring in -- and no big catastrophe claims checks going out. Not so. Most of the state's insurance companies report they are losing money. If the numbers are valid, the next big storm could not only destroy your home but also the company that insures it. Based on insurers' 2009 annual reports, 50 of out 70 Florida-based companies posted losses on their insurance business for the year; 31 of the companies reported a drop in reserves -- the money insurers set aside to pay claims. These Florida-based companies, many of them small, write about 52 percent of the residential homeowners insurance in the state. The rest is written by Citizens Property Insurance, the state-run company, State Farm Florida Insurance, the largest private carrier and several dozen companies based outside of Florida. The dreary financial reports coincide with a push in Tallahassee to pass legislation that would free up insurance companies to raise their rates at will -- as much as 5 percent initially and as much as 15 percent in the future. Right now, any rate increase requires state approval. Some are puzzled at how insurers can be doing so poorly during a time when hurricanes have bypassed Florida. ``Our insurance companies ought to be making good profits,'' said Alex Sink, the state's chief financial officer and a candidate for governor. Sink has asked Insurance Commissioner Kevin McCarty for a status report on the financial health of Florida-based insurers. It's due Wednesday. The companies aren't alone in issuing dire warnings about the industry. Demotech, a Columbus, Ohio,-based rating agency, withdrew positive ratings on 10 Florida companies over the past year, including Magnolia Insurance, Edison Insurance and two insurers operated by Northern Capital Group. A.M. Best, another rating agency, downgraded five Florida-based insurers -- different ones -- because they didn't meet capitalization or other requirements. And yet, in a move likely to fuel skepticism about insurance company losses, one company, Southern Oak, was just slapped by the state for overpaying a sister company to perform routine paperwork, pay agents and resolve claims. It made Southern Oak' bottom line look worse than it actually was. If insurance companies are as bad off as they say they are, South Florida residents are especially at risk. In Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach Counties, about 776,404 -- nearly 55 percent of the 1.4 million insured homes -- are covered by smaller firms that collect less than $200 million in annual premiums. WHAT INSURERS SAY If a homeowner's insurer goes belly up, the state's guaranty fund will pay up to $500,000 -- which might not cover all of the homeowner's losses. Those payments could result in additional taxes for Floridians if the guaranty fund runs out of money to pay losses and needs to raise more. Insurers say they have been left vulnerable by a combination of factors, including: • The state's determination to hit the brakes on rate increases. Numerous rate hike requests have been whittled down or rejected. • The rise in the cost of ``reinsurance'' -- backup insurance that companies buy to limit their exposure in the event of a disaster. • The state's schedule of wind mitigation discounts, which grants major rate cuts to homeowners who buy shutters and pay for other improvements to make their homes more hurricane-ready. Companies complain that the discounts are overly generous. • The reopening of Hurricane Wilma claims as policyholders put in for additional losses -- often at the insistance of public adjusters, who represent homeowners. • As in the case of Southern Oak, the payment of overly-generous commissions to affiliated companies that drain revenue from the insurer and leave it with little income or sometimes even losses. Regulators and lawmakers have started to focus on this last problem. Last week, Rep. Alan Hays called for an investigation, noting some company executives are paid big bonuses and generous commissions go to sister companies at the same the insurer is agitating for higher rates. Some remedies are emerging in Tallahassee. One is a massive insurance bill that would require each property insurer operating in Florida to boost its reserves to $15 million; the current requirement: just $4 million. It would also allow insurers to increase rates to offset those mitigation credits. While good for insurance companies, that would cost homeowners big money. Meantime, for the first time in three years, rate hikes are winning approval from the state. Over the past 10 months, regulators have OK'd 75 rate increases -- some for more than 20 percent -- for insurers selling home and windstorm coverage. Insurers say it's not enough and that still higher increases are needed so companies can sock away revenue to pay future claims. A 14 PERCENT INCREASE The state's largest insurer State Farm, which won a 14.9 percent rate increase last year, says it had an underwriting loss of $463.9 million in 2009. In conjunction with the rate hike, the company got permission to drop 125,000 Florida policies. State Farm and other Florida insurers say they have been undermined by a 2007 law that required insurers to lower rates if they purchased reinsurance from the state's catastrophe fund at lower than the going rate in the private market. Savings had to be passed on. The same 2007 law froze the rates charged by Citizens Property Insurance, the state-run insurer, through 2009 and freed the company to compete head-on with private carriers. Locking in the rates at Citizens put the private insurers at a disadvantage, those companies say. There was a time when Citizens was mandated to have the highest rates. No longer. John Rollins, who runs Rollins Actuarial Services in Newberry, Fla., says traditionally insurers will build up their reserves in years when hurricanes veer away from Florida. He contends flat rates have prevented that from happening. According to Rollins, 40 cents out of every $1 of premium collected by Florida property insurers is spent on backup insurance; 25 cents is spent on non-catastrophe claims such as fire and theft; and another 30 cents covers underwriting expenses, which include the cost of servicing claims, agents' commissions, administrative costs and premium taxes. WHAT'S LEFT OVER That leaves about five cents profit for an insurer that can run efficiently and contain its expenses. ``The average company isn't achieving [that five-cent profit] because it can't charge a premium large enough to cover all those costs,'' he says. Southern Oaks, the company ordered to slash what it pays to the sister company -- called a managing general agent -- is not the only insurer facing closer scrutiny these days. Several are being examined, said a spokesman for the Office of Insurance Regulation. The office would not identify those companies. Not everyone is down on selling insurance in Florida. American Integrity, a company based in Tampa, and New York based-Privileged Underwriters Reciprocal Exchange have added capital in the past 12 months and are poised to grow. Robert Ritchie, American Integrity's president, says the company will be writing new policies throughout the state and is interested in taking over some of the 125,000 policies State Farm won't be renewing in the next 12 months. American Integrity won approval for a 14.8 percent rate hike in late 2009. ``I'm not happy that homeowners will see rate increases,'' says Ritchie. ``[But] we need to do a better job overall explaining the need for rate increases and why the pain is being felt this year when actually it has been building over the past three years.'' Read more: http://www.miamiherald.com/2010/03/20/1539837/despite-no-storms-insurers-say.html#ixzz0iqJKjZq0 Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 377 Comments: 112944

909. Hurricanes101 9:01 PM GMT on March 21, 2010
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 6930

910. winter123 9:07 PM GMT on March 21, 2010
Quoting Hurricanes101: Heh, looks like my eyeball forecast was right. Just look at it and see what it wants to do. I'm going to be an eyeball-caster this year! :D Link Member Since: July 29, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 1706

912. AwakeInMaryland 9:44 PM GMT on March 21, 2010
Greetings! Despite the TERPS NCAA heartbreaker (they should have played their hearts out sooner), we had another beautiful day; business was good at a local flea market. Looking like some rains might start soon. Any whacky-crazy Saturday night trolls last night? I just got in a little while ago, so if someone else posted this semi-good news... oh well, sorry. Red River hits crest, begins to recede in Fargo (click on link for video story) By DAVE KOLPACK, Associated Press Writer Dave Kolpack, Associated Press Writer 1 hr 24 mins ago FARGO, N.D. %u2013 The crest of the Red River was met Sunday with more shrugs than white knuckles, as flood fears receded and Fargo residents walked their dogs and went to church instead of sandbagging and fleeing to higher ground. City officials said they were relieved the bloated river running along the border of North Dakota and Minnesota didn't cause major damage leading up to its crest. Fargo Mayor Dennis Walaker noted that while most floods have at least "one day of chaos" that didn't happen this year. But he cautioned against celebrating too soon. "We need at least another week here before we get it to the level we wanted it to be. There's still a lot of water down south," Walaker told The Associated Press. The National Weather Service said the Red River crested Sunday afternoon just under 37 feet, or 19 feet over flood stage, and was now on its way down. The region has been hoping for mostly dry weather to speed the river's fall by week's end. The forecast was cooperating, with only a small chance of rain in sight over the next few days. "We're bobbling downward," weather service spokesman Greg Gust said. He said the river appeared to be starting a "very slow decline through the remainder of the day." That was good news to residents of North Dakota's largest city, who worried that the Red could stay at its crest for several days, straining temporary levees and sandbag dikes. (for remainder of story, click on link) Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918

913. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 9:46 PM GMT on March 21, 2010
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 147 Comments: 41311

914. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 9:48 PM GMT on March 21, 2010
WTPN31 PGTW 212100 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (TWO) WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 211800Z --- NEAR 6.6N 143.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 16 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 6.6N 143.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 7.9N 141.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 8.8N 139.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 9.7N 137.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 10.6N 135.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 12.1N 132.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 13.7N 130.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 16.1N 128.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 212100Z POSITION NEAR 6.9N 142.9E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 02W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 355 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED NORTHWEST AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CON- VECTION CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 211217Z ASCAT PASS REVEALED A SYMMETRIC LLCC WITH WINDS BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN ANTICYCLONE TO THE EAST OF THE LLCC IS CREATING AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER THE LLCC, WHICH IS PROVIDING GOOD POLEWARD OUT- FLOW ALOFT. IT IS ALSO CREATING MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WHICH IS HAMPERING THE DEVELOPMENT OF TD 02W. THE SURFACE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. TD 02W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROP- ICAL RIDGE (STR). TD 02W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH TAU 72, WHEN A TRANSITORY MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL BREAK DOWN THE STR AND ALLOW FOR TD 02W TO BEGIN MOVING MORE NORTHWARD. THE TROUGH WILL ALSO CAUSE A SLOW DOWN IN TRACK SPEED AS THE STR WEAKENS. INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE SLOWLY AS VWS DECREASES, ALLOWING FOR TD 02W TO ORGANIZE VERTICALLY IN LATER TAUS. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON THE CONSENSUS OF AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 202251Z MAR 10 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 202300) MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220300Z, 220900Z, 221500Z AND 222100Z.// NNNN Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 147 Comments: 41311

915. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 9:52 PM GMT on March 21, 2010
TPPN11 PGTW 212110 COR A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (TWO) B. 21/2030Z C. 6.9N D. 142.7E E. SIX/MTSAT F. N/A G. IR/EIR H. REMARKS: 71A/PBO XTRP/ANMTN. COR LINES C, D AND H. I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: 21/1546Z 6.3N 143.8E AMSR 21/1618Z 6.4N 143.7E MMHS GATES Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 147 Comments: 41311

916. winter123 10:04 PM GMT on March 21, 2010
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE: Crazy storm! I can't beleive it's flurrying in Louisiana in late March, when it's 60 and sunny here in upstate new york! Member Since: July 29, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 1706

917. Skyepony (Mod) 10:05 PM GMT on March 21, 2010
Quoting StormW: Hi...I can respect that Skye! It's great to debate with you. The atmosphere though, did drive this...if memory serves me right, overall global activity was down as a whole. Not saying atmosphere didn't drive this..atmosphere like the wind shift before El Nino begins creates Kelvin waves (like Levi said) There were Kelvin waves that forbode the event, creating, strengthening with the recent Kelvin waves being even more impressive. ref Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 145 Comments: 29952

918. Skyepony (Mod) 10:07 PM GMT on March 21, 2010
The surface trough in the Atl ITCZ lacked persistance.. Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 145 Comments: 29952

920. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 10:28 PM GMT on March 21, 2010
nice strong spinner Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 147 Comments: 41311

921. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 10:30 PM GMT on March 21, 2010
WOCN11 CWTO 211955 Special weather statement Issued by Environment Canada Ontario region. Sunday 21 March 2010. Special weather statement issued for.. City of Toronto Windsor - Essex - Chatham-Kent Sarnia - Lambton Elgin London - Middlesex Simcoe - Delhi - Norfolk Dunnville - Caledonia - Haldimand Oxford - Brant Niagara City of Hamilton Halton - Peel York - Durham Huron - Perth Waterloo - Wellington Dufferin - Innisfil Grey - Bruce Barrie - Orillia - Midland Belleville - Quinte - Northumberland Kingston - Prince Edward Peterborough - Kawartha Lakes Stirling - Tweed - South Frontenac Bancroft - Bon Echo Park Brockville - Leeds and Grenville City of Ottawa Gatineau Prescott and Russell Cornwall - Morrisburg Smiths Falls - Lanark - Sharbot Lake Parry Sound - Muskoka Haliburton Renfrew - Pembroke - Barry's Bay Algonquin Burk's Falls - Bayfield Inlet. Risk of patchy light freezing rain near Lake Erie early Monday. Likelihood of significant freezing rain over northern and eastern sections of Southern Ontario Monday night. Monday morning....A weak disturbance will bring some rain to areas near Lake Erie Monday. Patchy freezing rain could be mixed in a few places during the morning. Monday night.....A much stronger disturbance will spread significant precipitation to most regions Monday evening or Monday night. Southwestern and southern sections including Toronto can expect rain. However freezing rain is likely from near lake Simcoe to Eastern Ontario. Areas near Northern Georgian Bay could escape most of the precipitation. Listen for further statements and consult the latest public forecast for further details. END/.. Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 147 Comments: 41311

922. Orcasystems 11:14 PM GMT on March 21, 2010
AOI AOI AOI AOI Humor in Comments Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 77 Comments: 26108

924. JRRP 11:43 PM GMT on March 21, 2010
Quoting winter123: 98W is a monster storm for march. Looks like its having problems organizing still. What do models say for this storm? Just eyeballing it looks like a recurve near the phillipenes... probably not over TS strength. if i am not wrong... the majority of the large systems have trouble to rapid intensified Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4357

925. bappit 11:57 PM GMT on March 21, 2010
923 Very bad idea. Don't even imitate the format with a disclaimer. Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 4 Comments: 4423

926. bappit 12:00 AM GMT on March 22, 2010
Two many people post the real thing on here. It is just too easy to get confused. Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 4 Comments: 4423

927. bappit 12:03 AM GMT on March 22, 2010
Come to think of it, one could say that about some of the amateurs posting other information while expressing themselves with an exaggerated self assurance. It's a fantasy world out there. Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 4 Comments: 4423

928. FirstCoastMan 12:05 AM GMT on March 22, 2010
what could a neutral ENSO with a cold bias mean for the atlantic hurricane season? Member Since: August 7, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 244

929. Patrap 12:06 AM GMT on March 22, 2010
RAAMB Currently Active Tropical Cyclones WP022010 - Tropical Depression TWO Time of Latest Image: 201003212313 Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 377 Comments: 112944

930. winter123 12:08 AM GMT on March 22, 2010
Quoting bappit: Come to think of it, one could say that about some of the amateurs posting other information on here with an exaggerated self assurance. It's a fantasy world out there. In case you missed it, I'm an eyeball-caster this year. Look at a satellite of the region and say where it's going to go. Hey, i was actually right for 98W, why not. Everyone has their place here on wunderground. We have wishcasters, fishcasters, doomcasters, modelcasters... and I am eyeballcaster. I think I missed some but those are the main ones. Bastardi-casters? Member Since: July 29, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 1706

931. Patrap 12:09 AM GMT on March 22, 2010
ALL Floater Imagery WP022010 - Tropical Depression TWO,Dvorak Image Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 377 Comments: 112944

933. AstroHurricane001 12:11 AM GMT on March 22, 2010
Quoting xcool: Holy cow, that's like a Nino-Nina duplex predicted for March-April-May! Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2811

934. FirstCoastMan 12:12 AM GMT on March 22, 2010
thank you StormW Member Since: August 7, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 244

935. NttyGrtty 12:15 AM GMT on March 22, 2010
Tolerance, people, tolerance. Nobody's opinion is any more or any less valuable on here. Personally, I appreciate those that actually have an opinion over the cut&pastecasters who only spead someone else's opinion... Member Since: February 11, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 666

936. Hurricanes101 12:20 AM GMT on March 22, 2010
Quoting NttyGrtty: Tolerance, people, tolerance. Nobody's opinion is any more or any less valuable on here. Personally, I appreciate those that actually have an opinion over the cut&pastecasters who only spead someone else's opinion... There is a huge difference between cutting and pasting someone else's opinion and cutting and pasting official advisories. At least for me, I appreciate it when people post the advisories so I dont have to go look for it myself. Also Magicchaos needs to be careful, that advisory is too close to the real thing that it could be taken as such, why not just copy and paste the actual advisory instead of creating one yourself Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 6930

937. Patrap 12:21 AM GMT on March 22, 2010
Storm Relative 16km Geostationary Water Vapor Imagery Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 377 Comments: 112944

938. NttyGrtty 12:22 AM GMT on March 22, 2010
Quoting Hurricanes101: There is a huge difference between cutting and pasting someone else's opinion and cutting and pasting official advisories. At least for me, I appreciate it when people post the advisories so I dont have to go look for it myself. Also Magicchaos needs to be careful, that advisory is too close to the real thing that it could be taken as such, why not just copy and paste the actual advisory instead of creating one yourself Point taken but it's your point, not his/hers. Both are as valid as the other. Tolerance... Member Since: February 11, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 666

939. winter123 12:30 AM GMT on March 22, 2010
Quoting NttyGrtty: Tolerance, people, tolerance. Nobody's opinion is any more or any less valuable on here. Personally, I appreciate those that actually have an opinion over the cut&pastecasters who only spead someone else's opinion... copypastacasters! Thanks, I forgot that one. Member Since: July 29, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 1706

940. Magicchaos 12:31 AM GMT on March 22, 2010
Quoting bappit: 923 Very bad idea. Don't even imitate the format with a disclaimer. Last year people didn't have a problem with me doing this. My blog has the advisories I put on last year and a blogger even thanked me for making such advisories for the western pacific. Member Since: April 3, 2009 Posts: 107 Comments: 382

942. NttyGrtty 12:34 AM GMT on March 22, 2010
Quoting winter123: copypastacasters! Thanks, I forgot that one. You're welcome. I'm actually slightly proud of that term...cut&pastecasters...please give me a footnote when you use it Member Since: February 11, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 666

943. xcool 12:39 AM GMT on March 22, 2010
Patrap nice image. Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15526

945. Patrap 12:41 AM GMT on March 22, 2010
All or about 90 percent of the imagery I use is on the Tropical Page here,..or this site. www.canefever.com and the CIMSS site too Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 377 Comments: 112944

946. winter123 12:43 AM GMT on March 22, 2010
Quoting Patrap: ALL Floater Imagery WP022010 - Tropical Depression TWO,Dvorak Image Looks impressive but really bad easterly shear. Weird, you'd think march would be westerlies. Not in the wpac, i guess. Member Since: July 29, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 1706

947. Patrap 12:44 AM GMT on March 22, 2010
For Historical data or reference years I use this site. NCDC > Satellite Data > HURSAT: Hurricane Satellite Data Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 377 Comments: 112944

948. winter123 12:47 AM GMT on March 22, 2010
Invest in indian ocean looking impressive. Couldnt figure out how to get image from this site so... loop: Oh forget it. Link doesn't even work. Member Since: July 29, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 1706

949. taco2me61 12:48 AM GMT on March 22, 2010
Quoting Patrap: For Historical data or reference years I use this site. NCDC > Satellite Data > HURSAT: Hurricane Satellite Data A Eyewall I went thru in 1985 in Miss,Long Beach,ELENA,Quicktime Movie one of 32 Hours I now have in Eyewalls I here Ya Patrap.... I have about the same time with just about the same storms.... Taco:0) Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 2788

950. Patrap 12:49 AM GMT on March 22, 2010
Reynolds SST Analysis Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 377 Comments: 112944

951. Patrap 12:50 AM GMT on March 22, 2010
Quoting taco2me61: I here Ya Patrap.... I have about the same time with just about the same storms.... Taco:0) Good stuff taco,..one has to be mindful of the past to be ready for the future,Im sure you have seen a lot as well. Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 377 Comments: 112944

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