Red River rising: 18th consecutive year of flooding--why?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:08 PM GMT on March 19, 2010

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The Red River at Fargo, North Dakota continues to rise, with a peak expected Sunday at the 4th highest flood level observed in the past century. "Major" flood level is 30 feet, which the river surpassed on Wednesday, and the river is expected to crest near 38 feet on Sunday, just 2.8 feet below the record set last year. Flood stage is eighteen feet, and the Red River has now reached flood stage at Fargo for eighteen consecutive years, according to the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. Prior to this remarkable stretch of flooding (which began in 1993), the river flooded in just 29 of 90 years. This year's flood is rated as somewhere between a 50-year and 100-year flood. Last year's record flood was a 100-year flood. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers lists the 10-year flood level for the Red River at Fargo to be 10,300 cubic feet per second. A 10-year flood, historically, has a 10% chance of occurring in a given year. In the last twenty years, the Red River has had eight 10-year floods--one every 2.5 years, on average. This year is the fourth year out of the past five with a 10-year flood. Clearly, flooding has increased significantly along the Red River over the past twenty years.


Figure 1. Current and forecast flood stage for the Red River of the North at Fargo, ND. You can access images like these using our wundermap for Fargo with the "USGS River" layer turned on. Click on the icon for USGS station 05054000, then hit the "click for graph" link.

Reasons for flooding: landform factors
According the U.S. Geological Survey, the unique landform characteristics of the Red River Valley make it highly susceptible to flooding. These factors include:

1) A relatively shallow and meandering river channel--a shallow channel holds less water and the meandering can cause flow to slow down as the channel makes its turns, causing over-bank flooding.

2) A gentle slope (averaging 0.5 to 1.5 feet per mile) that inhibits channel flow and encourages overland flooding or water "ponding" (especially on even, saturated ground) in the basin.

3) The northerly direction of flow--flow in the Red River travels from south (upstream) to north (downstream). The direction of flow becomes a critical factor in the spring when the southern (upstream) part of the Red River has thawed and the northern (downstream) part of the channel is still frozen. As water moves north toward the still frozen river channel, ice jams and substantial backwater flow and flooding can occur.


Figure 2. Peak flow of the Red River at Fargo, North Dakota through time. The two largest flow rates occurred last year (2009), and in 1997. The projected crest for Sunday (red circle) would be fourth greatest flood since reliable records began in 1901. Image credit: U.S. Geological Survey.

Reasons for this year's flood: highly unfavorable weather conditions
The USGS also cites five weather factors that can act to enhance flooding along the Red River. All five of these factors occurred to a significant degree this year:

1) Above-normal amounts of precipitation in the fall of the year that produce high levels of soil moisture, particularly in flat surface areas, in the basin. North Dakota had its 22nd wettest fall in the 115-year record in 2009.

2) Freezing of saturated ground in late fall or early winter, before significant snowfall occurs, that produces a hard, deep frost that limits infiltration of runoff during snowmelt. Fargo had a November that was much warmer than average, followed by a sudden plunge to below-zero temperatures by the second week of December. This froze the saturated ground to a great depth.

3) Above-normal winter snowfall in the basin. North Dakota had a top 15% winter for precipitation, with the period December 2009 - February 2010 ranking 15th wettest in the past 115 years.

4) Above-normal precipitation during snowmelt. Precipitation for March 1 - 18 has been 1.41", compared to the average of 0.61".

5) Above-normal temperatures during snowmelt. High temperatures in Fargo have averaged 6°F warmer than normal for March 1 - 18.

Urbanization increases flooding
Urbanization has had a major impact on increasing flooding not only along the Red River, but in every river basin in the U.S. Many cities and developed areas are located in flood plains next to major rivers and their tributaries. Highways, streets, parking lots, sidewalks, and buildings now cover large areas of the ground that used to absorb excess rain water and slow the rate at which run-off from precipitation and melting snow reached rivers. By developing large portions of our flood plains, run-off now reaches rivers more quickly, generating higher floods.

Building levees and flood defenses increases flood peaks
Defending ourselves against floods has made floods worse. Every time a new levee is built, or an old floodwall raised in height to prevent overtopping, more and more water is forced into the river bed, which raises the height of the flood. Flood waters that used to be able to spread out over their natural flood plains are now forbidden from spilling out over newly developed land in flood plains. For example, proposed improvements to the flood defense system in Fargo could cause a 4 - 10 inch rise in floods immediately downstream from the city, according to the Army Corps of Engineers.

Precipitation is increasing
As the climate warms, evaporation of moisture from the oceans increases, resulting in more water vapor in the air. According to the 2007 IPCC report, water vapor in the global atmosphere has increased by about 5% over the 20th century, and 4% since 1970. Satellite measurements (Trenberth et al., 2005) have shown a 1.3% per decade increase in water vapor over the global oceans since 1988. Santer et al. (2007) used a climate model to study the relative contribution of natural and human-caused effects on increasing water vapor, and concluded that this increase was "primarily due to human-caused increases in greenhouse gases". This was also the conclusion of Willet et al. (2007). This increase in water vapor has very likely led to an increase in global precipitation. For instance, over the U.S., where we have very good precipitation records, annual average precipitation has increased 7% over the past century (Groisman et al., 2004). Precipitation over the Red River drainage basin increased by about 10 - 20% during the 20th Century (Figure 3.) The same study also found a 14% increase in heavy (top 5%) and 20% increase in very heavy (top 1%) precipitation events over the U.S. in the past century. These are the type of events most likely to cause flooding. Kunkel et al. (2003) also found an increase in heavy precipitation events over the U.S. in recent decades, but noted that heavy precipitation events were nearly as frequent at the end of the 19th century and beginning of the 20th century, though the data is not as reliable back then.


Figure 3. Change in precipitation over the U.S. between 1900 - 2000, from the U.S. Cooperative network. Precipitation in the Red River drainage area increased by 10 - 20% over the 20th century. Image credit: Contemporary Changes of the Hydrological Cycle over the Contiguous United States: Trends (Groisman et al., 2002).

The future of flooding
As the population continues to expand, development in flood plains and construction of new levees and flood protection systems will continue to push floods to higher heights. With global warming expected to continue and drive ever higher precipitation amounts--falling preferentially in heavy precipitation events--it is highly probable that flooding in the Red River Valley--and over most of the northern 2/3 of the U.S. where precipitation increases are likely--will see higher and more frequent floods. With these higher and more frequent floods comes the increased risk of multi-billion dollar disasters, when a record flood event overwhelms flood defenses and inundates huge areas of developed flood plains. Obviously, we need to make smart decisions to limit development in flood plains to reduce the cost and suffering of these future flooding disasters.

References
Kunkel, K. E., D. R. Easterling, K. Redmond, and K. Hubbard, 2003, "Temporal variations of extreme precipitation events in the United States: 1895.2000", Geophys. Res. Lett., 30(17), 1900, doi:10.1029/2003GL018052.

Groisman, P.Y., R.W. Knight, T.R. Karl, D.R. Easterling, B. Sun, and J.H. Lawrimore, 2004, "Contemporary Changes of the Hydrological Cycle over the Contiguous United States: Trends Derived from In Situ Observations," J. Hydrometeor., 5, 64.85.

Milly, P.C.D., R.T. Wetherald, K.A. Dunne, and T.L.Delworth, Increasing risk of great floods in a changing climate", Nature 415, 514-517 (31 January 2002) | doi:10.1038/415514a.

Santer, B.D., C. Mears, F. J. Wentz, K. E. Taylor, P. J. Gleckler, T. M. L. Wigley, T. P. Barnett, J. S. Boyle, W. Brüggemann, N. P. Gillett, S. A. Klein, G. A. Meehl, T. Nozawa, D. W. Pierce, P. A. Stott, W. M. Washington, and M. F. Wehner, 2007, "Identification of human-induced changes in atmospheric moisture content", PNAS 2007 104: 15248-15253.

Trenberth, K.E., J. Fasullo, and L. Smith, 2005: "Trends and variability in column-integrated atmospheric water vapor", Climate Dynamics 24, 741-758.

Willett, K.M., N.P. Gillett, P.D. Jones, and P.W. Thorne, 2007, "Attribution of observed surface humidity changes to human influence", Nature 449, 710-712 (11 October 2007) | doi:10.1038/nature06207.

Links
A good way to track the flooding event is to use our wundermap for the Red River with the USGS River layer turned on.

The Fargo Flood webpage of North Dakota State University, Fargo, has some excellent links.

I'll have a new post on Monday or Tuesday.

Jeff Masters

Red River Flood 2006 (mw25)
The water level of the Red River when I took this photo was 47.2 feet, 19.2 feet above flood stage and the 6th highest level in Grand Forks' history. The river is expected to crest at 47.4 feet on Wednesday morning. Luckily, no homes have been lost in the Grand Forks area as of yet due to the flooding.
Red River Flood 2006
Fargo Flood 2009 - Elm & 15th Ave. N. (tliebenow)
Picture says it all. Clay dike built to contain the Red River in North Fargo.
Fargo Flood 2009 - Elm & 15th Ave. N.

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So Taz, you are looking towards July-August for our first-named storm this season?
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this be come EL Nino is weaking do not mean its overe will will be still be haveing lifet overes of EL nino well in too hurricane season so look for a vary slow start too hurricane season this year
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242. Skyepony

That was probably the plane heading to Bermuda for the first leg of the Hurricane Forecasters Bring Preparedness Message to Atlantic, Mexico and Caribbean tour. Noticed the date from the data you posted was yesterday.
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NAO going neutral to a bit positive right now, which is probably why trade winds are a little stronger over the eastern Atlantic.

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Surface wind speeds in the eastern Atlantic and MDR so far this month have increased slightly from February:

February average winds:



March 1st to 17th average winds:



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Quoting NRAamy:
Capt. Uppy!!!!!!!

Corny says Hi!

:)


LOL Hi!
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252. xcool
El Nino weakening yayyy
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Capt. Uppy!!!!!!!

Corny says Hi!

:)
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Quoting Levi32:


Exactly. Unfortunately ridging in the east is bad news for the hurricane season.


We need the warmth and precipitation though. The past few years have brought very cold and dry weather to the northern Great Lakes. In the summer, the lack of rain and cold weather lowers the fruit output of the vegetation, which causes the deer to have less food. When combined with a very cold following winter, the deer population drops resulting in increasingly poorer hunting seasons.

Also, the lakes and rivers are running very low. Late in the summer in 2009, we went to the Dickinson county fair, and passed a lake that had shrunk to half it's original size the past few years. It has been since 2002 since we had a big spring flood, and the Escanaba river to my northwest is flowing at about average flow, even with the snowmelt. The river has been so low the past few years. Even the Greenwood reservior to my northwest appears to have dropped about 6 to 10 feet the past few years.

Last spring was dry, and in late May one of the most damaging forest fires in U.P modern history occured just a mile to my southeast. It burned about 900-1000 acres and burned about 25 or more homes. I cant remember the exact stats on the fire, so I will have to check. The fire could have been much worse, as it traveled right between two decently popullated subdivisons, with plenty of dry vegetation to burn. The fireline built to keep the fire away from heading towards my neighborhood failed three times, but the wind shifted a bit more westerly as the fire weakened, so my neighborhood was spared. Had it been earlier in the day and the winds blew more out of the west, a whole subdivison containing 100 homes more or less would have been destroyed. Had conditions stayed supportive of forest fire growth for a another day or two, the fire would have possibly reached the higher populated areas closer to town.
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Quoting StormW:


Hey Storm.

TAO buoys within the central pacific warm pool have been showing rebounding SSTs during late February and early March, but some of them appear to be coming down off their peak now in recent days.

5-day running average since February 1st:

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245. xcool



1964
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting upweatherdog:
All I have to say is...LOL

This blog is sooooo funny, especially when people are out troll'n.

I can never be considered a troll, since I live above the bridge. (Michigan joke)



Cold PDO is good news for upper Michigan! Cold PDO cycles help create ridging in the east, and help create high pressure over the southeastern United States to pump up the warmth and humidity. With the weakening El Nino and cold PDO, we should get into a very warm, and more stormy pring pattern here in the Great Lakes. Looks like the warmth may arrive quite fast after this late month cool down we have just entered today (we had snow showers), sometime in early April according to model trends.


Exactly. Unfortunately ridging in the east is bad news for the hurricane season.
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242. Skyepony (Mod)
AF recon has been exercising the planes daily since the 10th. Mostly in the gulf..but today looks like they took a ride out to the low off the east coast..

Product: Air Force Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KNHC)
Transmitted: 18th day of the month at 19:10Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 304)
Mission: Non-Tasked Mission, possibly not tropical (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Identifier: 100318145126304 (2 digit year/2 digit month/2 digit day/6 digit mission start time/Last 3 digits of aircraft tail number)
Date Mission Started: March 18th in '10
Time Mission Started: 14:51:26Z
Observation Number: 06

Part A...

Date: Near the closest hour of 19Z on the 18th day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 400mb
Coordinates: 30.6N 69.7W (View map)
Location: 312 miles (502 km) to the WSW (248°) from Hamilton, Bermuda (GBR).
Marsden Square: 115 (About)

Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
1008mb (29.77 inHg) Sea Level (Surface) 18.8°C (65.8°F) 16.0°C (60.8°F) 210° (from the SSW) 26 knots (30 mph)
1000mb 65m (213 ft) 18.4°C (65.1°F) 15.4°C (59.7°F) 210° (from the SSW) 30 knots (35 mph)
925mb 728m (2,388 ft) 14.2°C (57.6°F) Approximately 8°C (46°F) 245° (from the WSW) 34 knots (39 mph)
850mb 1,436m (4,711 ft) 8.8°C (47.8°F) 4.7°C (40.5°F) 245° (from the WSW) 33 knots (38 mph)
700mb 3,012m (9,882 ft) -1.9°C (28.6°F) -4.6°C (23.7°F) 240° (from the WSW) 50 knots (58 mph)
500mb 5,620m (18,438 ft) -15.1°C (4.8°F) Approximately -64°C (-83°F) 225° (from the SW) 75 knots (86 mph)
400mb 7,280m (23,885 ft) -25.5°C (-13.9°F) Approximately -58°C (-72°F) 240° (from the WSW) 90 knots (104 mph)

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 193 Comments: 38698
241. xcool



wow
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
All I have to say is...LOL

This blog is sooooo funny, especially when people are out troll'n.

I can never be considered a troll, since I live above the bridge. (Michigan joke)

Quoting Levi32:
Here's an animation of global SST anomalies for the last 30 days, from February 18th to March 18th. Notice the central Pacific warm pool associated with El Nino slightly weakening but holding its own for the moment. The El Nino signal in the eastern Pacific is dying more rapidly as cold water closes in from both north and south. You can also see the eastern Atlantic continuing to warm further above normal. Also notice the northeast Pacific becoming progressively colder recently. This is getting the north Pacific to look very much like a typical cold PDO signal, which features cold water off the west coast of North America and a large area of warm water in the western Pacific.



Cold PDO is good news for upper Michigan! Cold PDO cycles help create ridging in the east, and help create high pressure over the southeastern United States to pump up the warmth and humidity. With the weakening El Nino and cold PDO, we should get into a very warm, and more stormy pring pattern here in the Great Lakes. Looks like the warmth may arrive quite fast after this late month cool down we have just entered today (we had snow showers), sometime in early April according to model trends.
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Greetings Everyone,

Interesting notes on the Red River flooding. Will have to do
some reading on this. Climate impacts aside, more rain or
not, one thing is for sure: As long as we keep encroaching on
flooding plains, whether they are subject to 1, 10, or 100
year floods, we will continue to see tragic results. By
tragic, I mean the preventable human and economic losses.
It should not take a rocket, environmental, or even climate
scientist to warn those living in flood plains that that the
odds are against them, period. Commercial Insurers won't
even take the risk, they know better. Unless, of course,
you are willing to sink far more into your property than
the tables say it's worth. As for the Army Corps. of
Engineers, they don't have an endless sinkhole of dollars
either to protect these communities (unless you run down
to the Fed and have them print up another unsecured
trillion...) Besides, while we may win a few battles
against Mother Nature, she will always win the flood war
at some point. Before any of you read this and send a
flurry of Sidewinders my direction, be assured I do
understand the plight of the poor, and my wife and I do
support various charities, and even run our churches
Food Bank.

On another note, as most of us Floridians are painfully
aware, the Tallahassee NWS Office (our CWA) declared February
the 4th COLDEST on record, and the winter was 6th COLDEST on
record. (I have always wanted to post a statement like
this...shame on me!) I noted the forecast high was supposed
to be almost 70 degrees F. today, so I decided to ride
my bike this morning. As soon as I reached the speed limit,
it became "bone chilling" clear that the cold was not yet
ready to give up. The ride home was much more pleasant.

Interesting reads on the upcoming hurricane season as well.
As I am one of the foolish ones who choose to retire on
the Florida Gulf Coast, I am watching all the discussion
rather closely. Let's hope all the hype does not materialize
into a record season. I personally have seen both the under
and over predictions very early in past seasons. I think I
will wait until closer to the start of the season to
start panicking, er, see what conditions have manifested
themselves by that time.

We will be praying heavily for those up north. Everyone
take care and be safe.

Very Respectfully,

Jon

See Tallahassee NWS statement on our winter below.


000
NOUS42 KTAE 011403 CCA
PNSTAE
FLZ017-202100-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
915 AM EST MON MAR 1 2010

...FEBRUARY WAS THE 4TH COLDEST ON RECORD AND WAS WETTER THAN
NORMAL FOR TALLAHASSEE...
...THE 2009-2010 WINTER SEASON WAS THE 6TH COLDEST AND 4TH
WETTEST ON RECORD FOR TALLAHASSEE...

THE AVERAGE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE FOR FEBRUARY IN TALLAHASSEE WAS 46.5
DEGREES WHICH WAS 8.3 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...MAKING IT THE 4TH
COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD. THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURE DURING THE MONTH
WAS 72 DEGREES ON THE 21ST AND THE LOWEST WAS 22 ON THE 26TH. THE
LOW TEMPERATURE OF 24 DEGREES ON THE 16TH TIED THE RECORD LOW FOR
THAT DAY. THE PREVIOUS OCCURRENCE WAS IN 1991. THERE WERE 13 DAYS
WITH A MINIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 32 DEGREES OR BELOW...5 ABOVE NORMAL.

RAINFALL AT THE TALLAHASSEE REGIONAL AIRPORT FOR FEBRUARY MEASURED
4.97 INCHES...0.34 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL. THERE WERE 8 DAYS WITH
MEASURABLE RAINFALL WHICH WAS 1 BELOW NORMAL. THE GREATEST AMOUNT IN
A 24-HOUR PERIOD WAS 2.13 INCHES ON THE 5TH WHICH SET A NEW DAILY
RECORD. THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 1.55 IN 1986. THERE WAS JUST 1 DAY
WITH THUNDERSTORMS AT THE AIRPORT WHICH WAS 1 BELOW NORMAL. THE PEAK
WIND GUST WAS 47 MPH FROM THE SOUTHEAST ON THE 5TH.

A RARE SNOW EVENT OCCURRED ACROSS THE LOCAL TRI-STATE REGION ON THE
11TH THROUGH THE 12TH. SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND
SOUTHWEST GEORGIA RECEIVED 4 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW. SNOW WAS BRIEFLY
MIXED IN WITH RAIN ON THE EVENING OF THE 11TH ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS
IN TALLAHASSEE INCLUDING THE REGIONAL AIRPORT TO OFFICIALLY GO DOWN
IN THE RECORD BOOKS AS A TRACE OF SNOW. THE LAST TIME TALLAHASSEE
OFFICIALLY SAW WINTRY PRECIPITATION WAS ON DECEMBER 24TH 2004 WHEN A
TRACE OF ICE PELLETS WAS RECORDED. THE LAST TIME TALLAHASSEE
REPORTED A TRACE OF SNOW WAS ON JANUARY 3RD 2002 WHICH WAS THE FIRST
TIME SINCE A TRACE WAS RECORDED IN MARCH 1996.

FOR CLIMATOLOGICAL PURPOSES...WINTER IS DEFINED AS THE 3-MONTH
PERIOD FROM DECEMBER THROUGH FEBRUARY. THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR
THESE 3 MONTHS WAS 49.0 DEGREES...4.4 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL MAKING IT
THE 6TH COLDEST WINTER ON RECORD. THE TOP 6 COLDEST WINTERS ARE AS
FOLLOWS:

1. 47.0 1978
2. 47.7 1977
3. 47.9 1964
4. 48.4 1970
5 48.7 1958
6. 49.0 2010

THE TOTAL RAINFALL FROM DECEMBER THROUGH FEBRUARY MEASURED 23.98
INCHES...9.89 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL MAKING IT THE 4TH WETTEST WINTER
ON RECORD. THE TOP 5 WETTEST WINTERS ARE AS FOLLOWS:

1. 27.81 1964
2. 26.54 1965
3. 24.27 1991
4. 23.98 2010
5. 23.95 1966

THE OUTLOOK FOR MARCH FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CALLS
FOR AN ENHANCED CHANCE OF EXPERIENCING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL. THE AVERAGE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE FOR MARCH IS
61.1 DEGREES AND NORMAL RAINFALL IS 6.47 INCHES.

ACCORDING TO THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER THERE IS A 43% CHANCE
THAT THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR THE 3-MONTH PERIOD FROM MARCH
THROUGH MAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL (< 66.5 DEGREES)...A 33% CHANCE
NEAR NORMAL (66.5 - 67.9) AND A 24% CHANCE ABOVE NORMAL (> 67.9).
THERE ARE NO 3-MONTH PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS FOR SPECIFIC POINT
LOCATIONS AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE GENERALIZED OUTLOOK FOR THE
TALLAHASSEE AREA CALLS FOR AN ENHANCED CHANCE OF EXPERIENCING ABOVE
NORMAL RAINFALL. THE NORMAL 3-MONTH RAINFALL FOR TALLAHASSEE IS
15.01 INCHES.

THE FOLLOWING WEBSITE CAN BE ACCESSED TO RECEIVE 3-MONTH AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS FOR SEVERAL OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE LOCAL
TRI-STATE REGION:

HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/CLIMATE/CALENDAR_OUTLOOK.PHP?WFO=TAE

$$

BARRY
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
i saw that too i was like dude what are ya doing don't you know your not surpose to be here i remember thinking this won't be long he even had a couple of young ladies in his picture to make him look normal and everything but i guess that was not much help he's gone but not for long


obsessive compulsive disorder

speaking of that, earthquakes seem too quite.

afternoon everyone!
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Here's an animation of global SST anomalies for the last 30 days, from February 18th to March 18th. Notice the central Pacific warm pool associated with El Nino slightly weakening but holding its own for the moment. The El Nino signal in the eastern Pacific is dying more rapidly as cold water closes in from both north and south. You can also see the eastern Atlantic continuing to warm further above normal. Also notice the northeast Pacific becoming progressively colder recently. This is getting the north Pacific to look very much like a typical cold PDO signal, which features cold water off the west coast of North America and a large area of warm water in the western Pacific.

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Quoting altesticstorm10:

That's the one thing...I do have utmost respect for women, unlike a large percentage of <27 y/o American males. Which is why I don't think I'll have a problem finding somebody beginning in a year or so when they actually get to know me.


I don't think you are a troll. You do admit you wish for a busy Hurricane season. But with a busy season, brings the likelihood of many deaths and a lot of destruction. You're still young and don't have the financial responsibility of going through a severe Hurricane. Once you are older and out on your own, I hope your thoughts will change. BTW, you wrote a few days ago, you wrote you have been through more than 50 screen names. I think that must be a record!
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altest...you were 14 in 2007?....that makes you what, 17 years old now?

and you were hitting on someone you thought was 25?

either you are lying...or....you are looking for a cougar...

I'm outa here....
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Quoting altesticstorm10:

Wasn't Stormtop also Stormyeyes and tropicalamanda?
tropical amanda was a guy i remember bad bad troll claimed to be left all alone in ike on gal by her drug addict daddy then turned out to be just a cruel joke i remember how alot of bloggers chased that girl/guy till the end then it was nothing more than an imposter all along believe she even got a few well know and respected bloggers attention funny how it turned out to be a guy in the end
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54858
yeah, he got banned for the nasty emails....I guess he trolled some women on here...said some bad stuff....that's what I was told anyways...so, if it's not true, my apologies to JFV
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Quoting NRAamy:
I don't think STORMTOP pretended to be a chick....but I guess I could be wrong...It happens on occasion....
that guy has multi split personally i think theres like 14 different versions all in he's grandma's basement and his state of the art weather centre
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54858
Quoting Levi32:


He has never annoyed me much besides constantly asking questions which are obviously contrived to get me to say that Florida is in danger lol. To me he's not much of a troll, at least the really bad kind of troll.


That perfectly sums it up. He never blatantly stated he wanted a home-town strike, but would glum on to any scenario by any blogger that would even minutely suggest such a scenario. And if I remember correctly, he wrote some pretty nasty emails to certain blog members.
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Quoting RTLSNK:
JFV was here the other day as FIUSenior with avatar photo and everything, but he was gone the same day. Fastest ban in history! He hasn't learned the meaning of stealth yet, he came on and introduced himself this time. LOL
i saw that too i was like dude what are ya doing don't you know your not surpose to be here i remember thinking this won't be long he even had a couple of young ladies in his picture to make him look normal and everything but i guess that was not much help he's gone but not for long
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54858
I don't think STORMTOP pretended to be a chick....but I guess I could be wrong...It happens on occasion....
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STORMTOP cracks me up too....

:)
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JFV cracks me up....I never had a problem with him...

I wasn't online when he went off on people and got banned...I missed the whole thing...
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Actually, JFV isn't bad, really, sometimes he is really funny. Especially when he doesn't mean to be. There are some bloggers who are really malevolent.


He has never annoyed me much besides constantly asking questions which are obviously contrived to get me to say that Florida is in danger lol. To me he's not much of a troll, at least the really bad kind of troll.
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Oh give altesticstorm10 some slack. I don't like it when a bunch of people gang up on anyone in here.

Besides it's right before the first weekend of spring!

I wasn't intending to gang up on him... just hit a nerve with the apparent wishing for a 'cane... it went downhill from there.
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he introduced himself?????

now that's funny!

;)
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Quoting plywoodstatenative:


So what does that mean then when we come to hurricane season. Will we see the same frequency and amounts of troughs?


If I may add another analog observation, the 5 analog years that occured during a cold PDO, which I showed the temperatures for above, featured the same upper pattern as this winter with a negative AO. February and March 500mb anomalies showed the trough over the east with blocking over the top in Canada, Greenland, and the pole.



The following April and May of those same years saw a reversal of the AO with the cold air back up over the pole, and more ridging over the eastern United States.

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JFV was here the other day as FIUSenior with avatar photo and everything, but he was gone the same day. Fastest ban in history! He hasn't learned the meaning of stealth yet, he came on and introduced himself this time. LOL
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Quoting plywoodstatenative:


So what does that mean then when we come to hurricane season. Will we see the same frequency and amounts of troughs?


Can't really say what will happen absolutely. Climate model pressures indicate a weak Azores-Bermuda High which suggests a negative NAO which would allow the ridge axis to extend further westward preventing the recurvature of storm. Also low pressures in the Caribbean and MDR region suggest higher pressure over the CONUS.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.