Quiet tornado season wakes up; severe thunderstorm in India leaves 1 million homeless

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:41 PM GMT on April 23, 2010

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After a record quiet start to the 2010 severe weather season, the atmosphere finally unleashed one of its classic violent spring weather days yesterday. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center tallied 32 tornado reports in Colorado, Kansas, and Texas. Fortunately, most of the storms occurred over uninhabited areas, and no injuries or major damage were reported. Our severe weather expert Dr. Rob Carver, has the details on the action in his blog today. The action was focused in a region the Storm Prediction Center had put in their "Moderate Risk" area for severe weather in yesterday's outlook. This was the first "Moderate Risk" region declared so far this year, which is a record for the latest day in the year this has occurred. According to Rich Thompson, a forecaster at NOAA's Storm Prediction Center, the previous record latest date for a "Moderate Risk" severe weather day was March 21, 2005. So, we beat the previous record by an entire month, which is a remarkable feat. There has been only one tornado death so far this year, the lowest death toll this far into the season on record. Typically, about half of the 80 or so tornado deaths we average per year have occurred by this point in the season. Yesterday's preliminary tornado count of 32 came close matching the preliminary U.S. tornado count for the entire month of March--36. March was the fourth-quietest March for tornado activity since record keeping began in 1950. The three-year average for March tornadoes is 138. One reason for the quiet tornado season has been the "upside down" winter and early spring we've experienced over North America over the past 3 1/2 months. Temperatures in Canada have been the warmest on record during this period, but have been unusually cold over the southern U.S. and Gulf of Mexico. Since the instability that severe thunderstorms need to occur comes from warm, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico encountering cold, dry air from Canada, this year's unusual "upside down" configuration has led to a much more stable than usual atmosphere over tornado alley in the U.S.


Figure 1. Doppler radar storm-relative velocity of the mile-wide tornado that affected western Kansas at 4:40 MDT April 22, 2010. No damage or injuries were reported from the tornado. A second tornado's Doppler radar signature is also visible at the bottom of the image.

Another severe weather outbreak expected today and Saturday
The Storm Prediction Center has outlined another "Moderate Risk" region of concern for severe weather today, this time centered over Arkansas, Mississippi, and northern Louisiana (Figure 2.) Tomorrow, the action moves eastwards and will be centered over Mississippi, Alabama, and Tennessee. This 3-day severe weather event will probably end up being one of the most significant of the year. Our severe weather expert Dr. Rob Carver will blog about today's action after it is over. As usual, you can follow today's severe weather outbreak with our interactive tornado page and our severe weather page..


Figure 2. Severe weather risk areas for Friday April 23, 2010.

Tornado and associated severe weather leave 1 million homeless in India
The U.S. has the world's most violent and numerous tornadoes, but second place goes to Bangladesh and eastern India. There, warm moist air from the Bay of Bengal often encounters cold, dry air from the Himalayas, setting up the instability needed to support severe thunderstorms. On Tuesday, April 13, and very unstable airmass (CAPE values > 3000) with strong westerly wind shear set up over eastern India, providing the classic set-up for supercell thunderstorms. Radar loops from the Kolkatta radar that day show a severe thunderstorm formed over extreme northeast India, near the Bangladesh border, and moved southeast into Bangladesh. The thunderstorm appeared to form a "bow echo", a configuration that often generates strong winds in excess of hurricane force near the bowed-out portion of the radar echo. Winds of 75 mph affected a large area of densely populated land, killing 137, severely damaging or destroying 200,000 homes, and leaving 1 million homeless. A weak tornado may have accompanied the storm. This may be the greatest number of people ever left homeless by a severe thunderstorm in world history.


Figure 3. Radar image from the Kolkatta Regional Meteorological Centre of the Indian Meteorological Department, showing the severe thunderstorm that killed 137 people and left 1 million homeless. Thanks go to Steve Nesbitt of UIUC for saving this image.

Jeff Masters

Into the Abyss (adkinsadam1)
A little more than April showers... These storms delivered tornadoes and 6 inches of hail! SPC can't seem to figure out that the front range loves these kinds of weather setups.
Into the Abyss
Funnel at Jericho Texas (live4storms)
Did not get to the ground.
Funnel at Jericho Texas
Second Groom, TX Tornado (zach34298)
This is about the best that the tornado ever looked. It was on the ground for a few minutes, before it lifted, and then briefly touched down again.
Second Groom, TX Tornado

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Gather Cyclone Oz has lost cell signal, his web-cam is down. I hope they're safe.

T Dude, have you talked to Cyclone Oz here recently?
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
ok he is pretty much in lewisville, he is going to wait here for the new storms
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SSEC, UW-Madison
Real-Time U.S. Composite Satellite Animation
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Good Evening Everyone. Stay Safe OZ!!!
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Atlantic SSTs compared to this time in 2005:


...to 2009:
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HE BEST BACKTRACK THE CURRENET CELL HAS MATURED ITS DONE WAIT ON BACKBUILDING CELLS
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Doppler indicated hail now with the back builders just south of Fouke - there may be a severe thunderstorm warning issued shortly with these new storms
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247
WFUS53 KLSX 240151
TORLSX
ILC013-149-MOC163-240230-
/O.NEW.KLSX.TO.W.0022.100424T0151Z-100424T0230Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
851 PM CDT FRI APR 23 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN CALHOUN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS...
SOUTH CENTRAL PIKE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
EAST CENTRAL PIKE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 930 PM CDT

* AT 848 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CLARKSVILLE...OR 11 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF LOUISIANA...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING TORNADOES. TAKE COVER NOW!

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CLARKSVILLE...BELLEVIEW...PLEASANT HILL...NEBO...MARTINSBURG AND
SUMMER HILL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

TORNADOES ARE DIFFICULT TO SEE AND CONFIRM AT NIGHT. TAKE COVER NOW
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127536
NEXRAD Radar
Red_Bay, Base Reflectivity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 124 NMI

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127536
ok he is just passing garland texas, heading east on 82 still, what should he do?
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
433. MTWX
It's horrible all of this is happening at night though. Hopefully there are more people like me who monitor the situation through the night and relay the info via phone to those I know throughout the affected areas to wake them up and move them to safety if needed...
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He's better off waiting in Garland and see if those cells that are back building become tornadic - the cell he is chasing is weakening and he'll never catch it - I think once the tornado warning expires on this cell that will be it - I am not getting a TVS anymore on that cell, but some good shear showing up again with the back building storms near Fouke - they are moving quickly northeast as well
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Most of the Caribbean is warmer than 28C:


Global SSTs compared to normal:


The 28.5C+ area in the Caribbean, shown in black lines, doesn't usually cover the extent it is at now until around late August!
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Latest frames all converge on Lewisville

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SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
840 PM CDT FRI APR 23 2010


ARC073-091-240200-
/O.CON.KSHV.TO.W.0020.000000T0000Z-100424T0200Z/
LAFAYETTE AR-MILLER AR-
840 PM CDT FRI APR 23 2010

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FOR MILLER
AND LAFAYETTE COUNTIES...

AT 838 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR IN SHREVEPORT
CONTINUED TO INDICATE STRONG ROTATION WITH A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IN
NORTHWEST LAFAYETTE COUNTY ARKANSAS JUST SOUTHWEST OF LEWISVILLE.

THIS STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE EAST NORTHEAST NEAR 30 MPH. IF YOU
LIVE IN THE LEWISVILLE OR STAMPS COMMUNITIES...TAKE COVER IMMEDIATELY.


&&


LAT...LON 3329 9342 3326 9342 3326 9346 3323 9347
3322 9368 3337 9376 3349 9356 3348 9350
TIME...MOT...LOC 0138Z 247DEG 30KT 3333 9362

$$

13
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Also a New Rotation can separate and I believe were seeing that..

Q-8 is getting squirrley



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127536
Quoting Bordonaro:

Moving Eastward, then stepping Northward.
Here we go folks. Storms starting to move into populated areas as predicted. I am hoping for the best and ready for the worst.
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Quoting hydrus:
Hi Pat, what does stair-stepping mean? Wobbling path?

Moving Eastward, then stepping Northward.
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Quoting Patrap:
The Bottom of the cell is stair stepping.

Hi Pat, what does stair-stepping mean? Wobbling path?
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wow, he's getting close, he is crossed over into arkansas
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
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The Bottom of the cell is stair stepping.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127536
416. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advisory
TROPICAL CYCLONE SEAN (13U)
9:00 AM WST April 24 2010
======================================

At 8:00 AM WST, Tropical Cyclone Sean, Category 2 (988 hPa) located at 15.5S 113.0E or 710 km northwest of Karratha and 730 km north of Exmouth has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 80 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south-southwest at 6 knots.

Storm Force Winds
==================
20 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
===================
50 NM from the center in northern quadrants
80 NM from the center in southern quadrants

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0/4.0/D1.0/24HRS

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 16.5S 112.5E - 55 knots (CAT 2)
24 HRS: 17.3S 111.7E - 60 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS: 17.8S 108.6E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
72 HRS: 17.9S 102.2E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)

Addition Information
=====================
Deep convection persists near the low level circulation centre of Tropical Cyclone Sean. Dvorak analysis: Difficult to determine DT. MET of 4.0 based on developing [D] trend. PAT= 4.0, FT/CI = 4.0.

1155 UTC SSMIS microwave image and 1812 UTC AMSRE image showed a tilting vortex with the mid level centre displaced to the south.

Latest CIMSS shear analysis at 00 UTC indicates NW shear of about 15 knots. Some further development is possible overnight if the shear remains low and with ongoing upper-level poleward outflow associated with a large amplitude mid-latitude trough to the southwest.

Southwest motion is forecast in the next 24 hours although some southerly motion is also possible especially if the system deepens further. The lack of model support for a more southerly track is probably due to the failure to resolve a sufficiently deep/intense system. Once weakening commences, a shift to a more westerly track is likely owing to lower level steering winds.

Increasing northwesterly shear should result in weakening on Sunday and Monday although gales may persist on the southern side of the circulation assisted by westerly motion and a strengthening ridge to the south.
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<
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Quoting tornadodude:


he is in texarkana, heading east on highway 82, should catch up to the storm from behind on highway 82
He needs to be in Lewisville/Stamps on 82.
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NEXRAD Radar
Shreveport, Composite Reflectivity Range 124 NMI


severe=0&rainsnow=0&lightning=1&smooth=0" alt="" />
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
This is the location of the tornado at 9:12 PM EDT:
LAT...LON 33.29 93.42 3326 9342 3326 9347 3323 9347
3318 9391 3328 9396 3349 9355 3348 9350

He needs to get there now. The tornado is moving ENE at 35 MPH.


he is trying, he is pretty much playing catch up right now because he accidentally went too far west on I-30, but he is enroute now
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
Quoting tornadodude:


he is in texarkana, heading east on highway 82, should catch up to the storm from behind on highway 82
This is the location of the tornado at 9:12 PM EDT:
LAT...LON 33.29 93.42 3326 9342 3326 9347 3323 9347
3318 9391 3328 9396 3349 9355 3348 9350

He needs to get there now. The tornado is moving ENE at 35 MPH.
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410. xcool
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<
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
TornadoDude, where is OZ?


he is in texarkana, heading east on highway 82, should catch up to the storm from behind on highway 82
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Looks like the storm will pass just south of Garland and I think Lewisville is right in the path
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TornadoDude, where is OZ?
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<
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* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN LAFAYETTE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...STAMPS...LEWISVILLE...
EAST CENTRAL MILLER COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...


NEXRAD Radar
Shreveport, Composite Reflectivity Range 124 NMI

/>
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403. MTWX
It's going to be a long night tonight and a long day tomorrow!!!
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SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
809 PM CDT FRI APR 23 2010

ARC073-091-TXC067-240115-
/O.CON.KSHV.TO.W.0018.000000T0000Z-100424T0115Z/
LAFAYETTE AR-MILLER AR-CASS TX-
809 PM CDT FRI APR 23 2010

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 PM CDT FOR CASS...
MILLER AND LAFAYETTE COUNTIES...

AT 804 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW VERY STRONG INDICATIONS
OF A TORNADO ON THE GROUND JUST WEST OF FOUKE ARKANSAS. IF YOU LIVE IN
THE FOUKE COMMUNITY. TAKE COVER IMMEDIATELY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WARNING MEANS THAT STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THE
STORM. A TORNADO MAY ALREADY BE ON THE GROUND...OR IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP SHORTLY. IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM...
MOVE INDOORS AND TO THE LOWEST LEVEL OF THE BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS. IF DRIVING...DO NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER A HIGHWAY OVERPASS.

&&

LAT...LON 3337 9375 3303 9372 3302 9384 3303 9404
3300 9405 3298 9432 3314 9436
TIME...MOT...LOC 0108Z 251DEG 34KT 3322 9389

$$

13
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234
WFUS54 KSHV 240112
TORSHV
ARC073-091-240200-
/O.NEW.KSHV.TO.W.0020.100424T0112Z-100424T0200Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
812 PM CDT FRI APR 23 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN LAFAYETTE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...STAMPS...LEWISVILLE...
EAST CENTRAL MILLER COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...

* UNTIL 900 PM CDT

* AT 811 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR FOUKE...OR
16 MILES SOUTHEAST OF TEXARKANA...MOVING EAST NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.
TREES WERE REPORTED DOWNED EARLIER NEAR QUEEN CITY TEXAS WITH THIS
STORM. THIS IS A DANGEROUS SITUATION. IF YOU LIVE IN THE PATH OF
THIS STORM...TAKE COVER IMMEDIATELY.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
GARLAND...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WARNING MEANS THAT STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THE
STORM. A TORNADO MAY ALREADY BE ON THE GROUND...OR IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP SHORTLY. IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM...
MOVE INDOORS AND TO THE LOWEST LEVEL OF THE BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS. IF DRIVING...DO NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER A HIGHWAY OVERPASS
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127536
Quoting tornadodude:


82 was the way to go for him I think


Yea, he'll eventually cross paths
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SSEC, UW-Madison
Real-Time U.S. Composite Satellite Animation
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Just extended the Tornado warning northeastward until 9 PM Central for the exact area Oz is in
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(Courtesy to KTBS 3)
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<
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Quoting Chucktown:
GR2 out of Shreveport still shows TVS - very nice couplet on this cell. The town of Garland is on 82 - that may be the next town this storm impacts after Fouke, if it maintains its intensity, but this is looking more and more like a long track tornado


82 was the way to go for him I think
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
The Sig keeps curling and Im with Chuck,..this seems to be a Mover,on the ground
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.