First Atlantic Invest, 90L is here; oil now 350 miles west of Key West
An extratropical low pressure system has developed a few hundred miles northeast of the Bahamas today, and has been designated as the first "Invest" of the year (90L) by the National Hurricane Center. (For those of you who were wondering, a discussion of what an "Invest" is can be found in the Tropical Cyclone FAQ). This low has the potential to develop into the season's first named storm--Alex--and could be a threat to the Southeast U.S. coast by Tuesday. Wind shear is currently 40 knots over the low, and the high shear ripped apart a low level circulation that was attempting to form this morning. Water vapor loops show a large amount of dry, continental air exists to the west of the storm, and this dry air will hamper transition of 90L to a subtropical storm. This system is expected to move slowly northwestward towards the Southeast U.S. coast, and could bring 20 - 30 mph winds and heavy rain to the coast of North Carolina by Tuesday. While the storm will initially form in a region of high wind shear and be entirely extratropical, it will move into a region of lower wind shear in a gap between the polar jet stream to the north and the subtropical jet stream to its south early next week. At that time, the low will be positioned near the warm waters of the Gulf Stream, and will have the opportunity to develop a shallow warm core and transition to a subtropical storm. The models are divided on whether the storm will eventually make landfall on the Southeast U.S. coast 5 - 7 days from now, and it is too early to offer odds on this occurring. The counter-clockwise flow of air around this low will probably lead to northeasterly winds over the oil spill region Tuesday through Wednesday, keeping oil away from the coasts of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle, but pushing oil southwards towards the Loop Current. Wunderbloggers Weather456 and StormW have more detailed discussions of the potential development of 90L.
Figure 1. Visible satellite image of 90L this afternoon.
Potential heavy rainfall threat to Haiti next week
Long-range forecasts from the NOGAPS model, and to a lesser extent, the ECMWF and GFS models, continue to predict an increase in moisture and decrease in wind shear over the Western Caribbean 4 - 6 days from now, leading to development of a tropical disturbance with heavy rains in the Western Caribbean early next week. A strong subtropical jet stream over the southern Gulf of Mexico will steer the disturbance to the north and east, and the potential exists for heavy rains of 2 - 4 inches to affect eastern Cuba, Jamaica, Haiti, and the Dominican Republic in the Wednesday - Thursday time frame next week. The models are less enthusiastic about the prospects for tropical development than they were in yesterday's runs, and it currently appears that high levels of wind shear will make formation of a tropical depression improbable.
Oil spill continues to impact Louisiana shores
Light southeast to east winds are expected to blow over the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Sunday, resulting in potential oiling of Louisiana shorelines from the mouth of the Mississippi River westward 150 miles, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA. These winds may be creating strong enough surface currents that the flow of oil southwards towards the Loop Current may be significantly reduced or shut off over the next few days, as suggested by the latest SAR satellite imagery (Figure 2). However, winds will shift to offshore out of the north or northeast by Tuesday, due to counter-clockwise flow of air around the approaching 90L storm. If 90L becomes strong and lingers off the Southeast U.S. coast for several days, a significant amount of oil could get pumped into the Loop Current next week.
Figure 2. Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) image of the oil spill taken at 11:53pm EDT May 20, 2010, by the European Space Agency's ENVISAT satellite. The plume of oil being drawn south towards the Loop Current appears truncated, and very little oil may be flowing south. Image credit: Center for Southeastern Tropical Advanced Remote Sensing, University of Miami Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science. SAR images have a resolution of 8 - 50 meters, and can be taken through clouds and precipitation.
Oil now 350 miles due west of Key West
Satellite imagery from today's 12:15pm EDT pass of NASA's Terra satellite (Figure 3) shows that a narrow ribbon of oil is caught in the Loop Current. The oil has moved south and then southwest, and the leading edge of the oil is now about 350 miles due west of Key West, Florida. The oil is substantial enough to modify the cumulus clouds in the Gulf of Mexico, though NOAA characterizes this portion of the oil spill as "numerous light sheens with some emulsified patties and streams." The oil is now headed away from the Keys towards a major kink in the Loop Current. By Saturday, the oil should double back towards the Keys in a eastward flowing branch of the Loop Current, and will likely pass just south of Key West by Tuesday. However, this is not a sure thing. As I discussed in my post Wednesday, the Loop Current is very unstable right now, and is ready to cut off into a giant clockwise-rotating eddy, an event that occurs every 6 - 11 months. This event could occur today or tomorrow, in which case the ribbon of southwestward-moving oil would turn due west and then north, eventually winding up back near the site of the Deepwater Horizon blowout. Roffer's Ocean Fishing Forecast Service has a nice discussion on the possibility of the Loop Current cutting off into a Loop Current Eddy. Keep in mind, though, that during the first month that a Loop Current Eddy forms, it exchanges a considerable amount of water with the Loop Current. Even if a Loop Current Eddy forms today, I still expect we will see some oil make the turn eastward and flow past the Florida Keys by Wednesday.
Figure 3. Visible satellite image from NASA's MODIS instrument for 12:15pm EDT May 21, 2010. I've enhanced the region along the eastern boundary of the Loop Current showing the south and southwestward moving ribbon of oil. Note that the oil is substantial enough to be affecting the low level cumulus clouds along portions of the ribbon of oil. The oil has reached the latitude of the Florida Keys.
Oil spill resources
My post Wednesday with answers to some of the common questions I get about the spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA trajectory forecasts
Deepwater Horizon Unified Command web site
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Surface current forecasts from NOAA's HYCOM model
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami
I'll be back with a new post Saturday afternoon.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Now, there's a firecracker. But he makes great points with whatever he is discussing...
Interestng. Is that at the university level or for the government?
If it was late July or early August, it would be a possibility.
However, the season is just about to start, the system is extra-tropical, and at best, we may see a sub-tropical system.
Just in case, I like my crow seasoned with lotsa garlic, butter and oregano :o)!
I cant find Larry King.
Live video link from the ROV monitoring the damaged riser
Private company. We do work on contract for other companies and state and fed agencies.
18Z TWD
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 12N76W TO EASTERN PANAMA NEAR
9N78W AND INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION MOVING W-NW AT 5-10 KT.
SOUTHEASTERLY LOW TO MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SW
CARIBBEAN AND EVENTUALLY INLAND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION REMAINS
LARGELY SOUTH OF 12N BETWEEN 75W-82W AND CONTINUES TO BE
ENHANCED BY A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT.
TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 13N82W TO SOUTHERN NICARAGUA NEAR
11N85W AND INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION MOVING W-NW AT 5-10 KT.
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE WAVE CONTINUE SUPPORTING SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 80W-87W. A FAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO SUSTAINED CONVECTION
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OVER NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS AS ENERGY
FROM THE WAVE FRACTURES AND MOVES NW.
THIS IS A SIGN OF INVEST 91L COMING VERY SOON.
The only one available I think is from the NHC
2.0/25/1012
.....and cold water......
Images show nothing in the SW Caribbean at all right now, going to be days before we get 91L most likely
nuff said there,LOL
Fascinating. Cool work. I no longer work for Discovery Channel I am at a publishing company now.
Ok, but at the same time you can say climatology favors the formation of a major hurricane in August, then if it didn't become major it would be defying climatology in the opposite manner. I lost my train of thought so idk if you get what I'm trying to say.
WHXX01 KWBC 220010
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0010 UTC SAT MAY 22 2010
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL902010) 20100522 0000 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100522 0000 100522 1200 100523 0000 100523 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 24.9N 73.3W 24.4N 74.3W 23.8N 75.3W 23.0N 76.7W
BAMD 24.9N 73.3W 24.3N 70.6W 24.8N 68.6W 26.3N 67.6W
BAMM 24.9N 73.3W 24.5N 73.4W 24.2N 73.6W 23.7N 73.7W
LBAR 24.9N 73.3W 24.9N 72.8W 25.0N 72.3W 25.2N 72.4W
SHIP 25KTS 24KTS 21KTS 0KTS
DSHP 25KTS 24KTS 21KTS 0KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100524 0000 100525 0000 100526 0000 100527 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 22.2N 77.9W 21.3N 80.5W 21.3N 82.8W 21.5N 84.9W
BAMD 28.3N 67.7W 32.4N 69.4W 34.7N 72.6W 33.9N 74.5W
BAMM 23.1N 73.6W 23.4N 70.6W 28.7N 65.5W 33.6N 59.0W
LBAR 25.6N 72.4W 27.5N 72.5W 30.9N 71.6W 34.3N 68.8W
SHIP 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 24.9N LONCUR = 73.3W DIRCUR = 220DEG SPDCUR = 3KT
LATM12 = 25.4N LONM12 = 73.0W DIRM12 = 190DEG SPDM12 = 3KT
LATM24 = 25.7N LONM24 = 72.7W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 150NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 155NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
$$
NNNN
We do work for LSU, too...
with the amount of crow we eat on this blog they will go extinct
April 26 - May 21 2010
that's right. we were talking a year ago about being at the Silver Spring office...
Was there for a conference/workshop with the ADCIRC group at the NOAA HQ.
L8R, last time I let the dishwasher unload itself, 'twas rather ugly.
And u do it well Im told.
Nah, there are literally hundreds of millions of those wonderful crows to go around!!
right I am glad you remembered. I moved to Gainesville Fl since then to be with my fiance.
Glad to hear that you finally rcvd some rain.
We had some strong storm cells go by just to
the south of us this evening, glad they missed us.
Kinda get what your saying but
We must ask ourselves why did it not become a major? Vertical shear?, cool ssts, dry air intrusion. These are unfavorable climatological variables of TCs. Remember climatology of TCs does not only involve the strengthening of Tcs but weakening of TCs also. Here we are basically using climatology, the knowledge we know about TCs.
Da Mayor down there at Grand Isle iz ready to hang some BP FOlk.
I spent many a weekend and weeks there in my Life.
Yeah cher,..itsa sad drive down Hwy 1 from Fourchon
usually when there is a first off, there is a secondly lol
either way I think it will take a few days before anything develops down there
there could be something to those who said that are of disturbed weather could spark something in the SW Caribbean
proof?
You know, I predicted Alex to form in the Gulf in late May, I just do this for fun, and I'm thinking 'What if this is it?'.
If that is just plankton why did a NOAA Hurricane hunter fly over it most the day? And how would phytoplankton affect the formation of low level cumulus clouds directly over them?
Hi StormW, thanks for using the phrase "common sense" when it comes to our enjoyment.
THANK you very much!!
Will the oil protect the coast from hurricanes?
Right on StormW!!
Has something to do with evaporation...I think.
Nah, way too early for that. Maybe they'll send a smaller NOAA jet to investigate :0)..
Remember its May.. not July.
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