Tropical Storm Agatha, Pacaya volcano kill 15 in Guatemala; oil spill update

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:39 PM GMT on May 30, 2010

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Tropical Storm Agatha, the first Eastern Pacific named storm of 2010, was short lived but deadly. Agatha was a tropical storm for just 12 hours, making landfall Saturday on the Pacific coast of Guatemala as a 45 mph tropical storm. However, the storm brought huge amounts of moisture inland that continue to be wrung out as heavy rains by the high mountains of Guatemala and the surrounding nations of Central America. So far, flooding and landslides have killed twelve people in Guatemala, and one person in neighboring El Salvador. According to the excellent Guatemala weather site, climaya.com, rainfall amounts of up to 152 mm (six inches) in 24 hours have occurred in some regions of Guatemala. The National Hurricane Center is warning that rainfall amounts of up to 30 inches may fall the next few days in some mountainous regions near where the storm has dissipated. Adding to the mayhem is fallout from the Pacaya volcano in Guatemala, which began erupting three days ago. At least three people have been killed by the volcano, located about 25 miles south of the capital, Guatemala City. The volcano has destroyed 800 homes with lava and brought moderate ash falls to the capital.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image of Tropical Storm Agatha at landfall. The storm was intensifying right up until landfall, and had an impressive "hot tower" of building cumulonimbus clouds near its center that brought heavy rains to Guatemala.


Figure 2. Flooding in Quetzaltenango, Zone 2, in Guatemala on May 29, 2010, after heavy rains from Tropical Storm Agatha. Image credit: Carlos Diaz, climaya.com

Oil spill update
Light onshore winds out of the south are expected to blow over the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Tuesday, resulting increased threats of oil to the Alabama and Mississippi barrier islands, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA. Winds are expected to shift to southwesterly on Wednesday and continue through Friday, increasing in force to 10 - 20 knots late in the week as a cold front approaches the Gulf. These persistent and strengthening southwesterly winds will likely bring oil very close to shore from Mississippi to the Florida Panhandle by next weekend.

Oil spill resources
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post Wednesday with answers to some of the common questions I get about the spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA trajectory forecasts
Deepwater Horizon Unified Command web site
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Surface current forecasts from NOAA's HYCOM model
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Join the "Hurricane Haven" with Dr. Jeff Masters: a new Internet radio show
Beginning next week, I'll be experimenting with a live 1-hour Internet radio show called "Hurricane Haven." The show will be aired at 4pm EDT on Tuesdays, with the first show June 1. Listeners will be able to call in and ask questions. Some topics I'll cover on the first show:

1) What's going on in the tropics right now
2) Preview of the coming hurricane season
3) How a hurricane might affect the oil spill
4) How the oil spill might affect a hurricane
5) New advancements in hurricane science presented at this month's AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
6) Haiti's vulnerability to a hurricane this season

I hope you can tune in to the broadcast, which will be at http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.h tml. If not, the show will be recorded and stored as a podcast.

I'll probably be back Monday with a quick update. Have a great holiday weekend!

Jeff Masters

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138. kingy
Quoting Patrap:
Colin Powell: Oil Spill Is 'Beyond The Capacity' Of BP To Solve, Military Might Have Role

Former Secretary of State Colin Powell suggested on Sunday that the United States military has a role to play in helping contain the massive oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico, saying that the problem now was "beyond the capacity" of BP to stop.

"The president has to get involved as quickly as possible," Powell told ABC's This Week. "If you don't, then public opinion starts to drag you in the media, and pushes you. And so when something like this clearly is going to get beyond the capacity of whoever caused it, get beyond the capacity of local authorities, I think the federal government has to move in quickly and move in with, to use my favorite expression, decisive force and demonstrate that it's doing everything that it can do."

Powell continued: "[This] is a major problem that can only be dealt with by the federal government and all the resources of the federal government and that's what the president is now doing."

The statement by the revered military and political figure is a reflection of a growing discouragement over the failure of the Obama administration -- in practice or in perception -- to play a hands-on role in resolving the crisis. Asked whether he'd been satisfied with the extent of the president's response to this point, Powell was moderately critical.

"I think the president directly said the other day that he'd been monitoring it, following it, and ... been on top of it from the beginning," he said. "But that impression was not conveyed to the American people. And the comprehensive speech he gave the other day, I think he would have been better served -- and the nation would have been better served -- if he had given it a few weeks earlier. But I think the federal government is now fully engaged."


I agree Pat, I think they HAVE to get the military involved now in all aspects from building manmade reefs to adapting military craft to scoop oil at sea.

And I mean dozens if not hundreds of boats.
Working night and day.

Recruiting local people, kitting them out. Maybe for years to come.

Using military aircraft and satellites for monitoring.

BP are now absolutely out of their depth.

In more ways than one
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Quoting Patrap:
wunderground on FACEBOOK


Pat, just joined that link
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Not really lookin for 1st storm til probably June 20th or so due to the high shear over gulf n northern carribean areas..course i could be wrong...
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wunderground on FACEBOOK
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Quoting IKE:


Okay...your link worked.

I don't see anything in the Atlantic the first 10 days of June. Maybe he's right.

I'm sticking to my February/March forecast...13-7-4..in the Atlantic.
19-11-6-3. I think we will see a lot of intense cyclones this year, negative NAO, La niña, low SAL. I think I just made JFV happy, I wasn't trying though.
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Quoting hurricane23:


Chances are slim. Upper level conditions are still quite hostile in the southern gulf. Moisture increase for florida.



The ULL and aggies reminant moisture is what the models are"forming" maybe some widespread good tropical soaking rains for FL next week w/wide spread 2-3" over central and south FL wed/thurs,IMO
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130. IKE
Quoting Funkadelic:


He is saying it will be a month to 6 weeks before any MEANINGFUL Warm core development is made. What does he mean by meaningful? As you can see with Agatha it only takes a TD to take lives. I do not agree with his article.... here is the link (Not a good read)

Link


Okay...your link worked.

I don't see anything in the Atlantic the first 10 days of June. Maybe he's right.

I'm sticking to my February/March forecast...13-7-4..in the Atlantic.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting portcharlotte:
Ike

Here it is again....worked for me

http://www.examiner.com/x-3775-Houston-Weather-Examiner~y2010m5d29-WEATHERAmerica-Newsletter-Saturd ay-May-29-2010-at-650-PM-CT


your link has a space in the word "Saturday"

try this:

http://www.examiner.com/x-3775-Houston-Weather-Examiner~y2010m5d29-WEATHERAmerica-Newsletter-Saturd ay-May-29-2010-at-650-PM-CT


Quote:

A balance must be established between the very favorable look of SST anomalies on both the Pacific and Atlantic sides. Cooling is very obvious in the central tropical sectors (see TAO/TRITION data) and the warmth between western Africa and the Texas shoreline is quite impressive. But if you look at the cool expression near Bermuda and the prominent southwest flow scraping the equator from South America into the Rift Valley, it seems a likely bet that another month or perhaps 6 weeks will pass before upper level flow and shear profiles will become favorable for meaningful warm-core cyclogenesis. My call is for 12 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 2 major storms, with August and September being especially active. Threats to Texas and the Florida Panhandle show up strongly in analogues for the 2010 tropical cyclone season.
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127. IKE
Quoting portcharlotte:
Ike

Here it is again....worked for me

http://www.examiner.com/x-3775-Houston-Weather-Examiner~y2010m5d29-WEATHERAmerica-Newsletter-Saturd ay-May-29-2010-at-650-PM-CT


404 Page not found
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Whose all on facebook! I think we need to start a wunderground community on there...anyone agree?
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Bill Maher


New Rule: Politicians Must Be Informed of Their Rights: "Everything You Say Can and Will Be Used Against You in a Google Search"


New Rule: Before running for office, politicians must be informed of their rights: that "Everything you say can and will be used against you in a Google search." Now, of course, we all embellish our resumes a little. In college, I described my job of pot dealer as "regional sales associate for a large multi-national firm." But we just had the fifth anniversary of YouTube and the twelfth of Google, and between them, they're killing off a great institution: lying. You just can't lie anymore -- facts are too easy to check, everything is on video, and your wife put a GPS in your glove compartment. Our privacy is gone, our Internet conversations are forever. I even have reason to believe I'm being recorded right now...
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www.unitedstatesforecasting.com
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
stop it ike your gonna make FIU cry if ya tell him no storms for him in june
LOL.
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Quoting IKE:


I'm not sure this blog would survive.

Can't get the link to work.
stop it ike your gonna make FIU cry if ya tell him no storms for him in june
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53605
Colin Powell: Oil Spill Is 'Beyond The Capacity' Of BP To Solve, Military Might Have Role

Former Secretary of State Colin Powell suggested on Sunday that the United States military has a role to play in helping contain the massive oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico, saying that the problem now was "beyond the capacity" of BP to stop.

"The president has to get involved as quickly as possible," Powell told ABC's This Week. "If you don't, then public opinion starts to drag you in the media, and pushes you. And so when something like this clearly is going to get beyond the capacity of whoever caused it, get beyond the capacity of local authorities, I think the federal government has to move in quickly and move in with, to use my favorite expression, decisive force and demonstrate that it's doing everything that it can do."

Powell continued: "[This] is a major problem that can only be dealt with by the federal government and all the resources of the federal government and that's what the president is now doing."

The statement by the revered military and political figure is a reflection of a growing discouragement over the failure of the Obama administration -- in practice or in perception -- to play a hands-on role in resolving the crisis. Asked whether he'd been satisfied with the extent of the president's response to this point, Powell was moderately critical.

"I think the president directly said the other day that he'd been monitoring it, following it, and ... been on top of it from the beginning," he said. "But that impression was not conveyed to the American people. And the comprehensive speech he gave the other day, I think he would have been better served -- and the nation would have been better served -- if he had given it a few weeks earlier. But I think the federal government is now fully engaged."
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Ike

Here it is again....worked for me

http://www.examiner.com/x-3775-Houston-Weather-Examiner~y2010m5d29-WEATHERAmerica-Newsletter-Saturd ay-May-29-2010-at-650-PM-CT
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Image of Sal during part of 2005 and explanation from AMOL:

The moist environment associated with the AEW axis (AEW 1);
An area of SAL air (SAL 2) behind (east of) the AEW of interest (AEW 1);
An area of convection associated with AEW 1 that was located along the leading edge of the 'newer' SAL outbreak (SAL 2). This convection was likely being enhanced by relatively denser, dry SAL air uplifting the moist tropical air out ahead of it.
An area of 'older' SAL air (SAL 1) out ahead (west) of the AEW of interest (AEW 1) that appeared to be moderating (moistening) fairly quickly in recent days, even since yesterday's 20050927n1 mission;
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Quoting Grothar:


I found the link for the SAL in 2005 by month. Just go to the bottom and click on the month. There was a lot of SAL in 2005.



Link
thanks grothar
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53605
115. IKE
Quoting portcharlotte:
Larry Cosgrove, Weather America newletter indicates that there is a chance of no Tropical storms during the next 6 weeks.

The link is below:
http://www.examiner.com/x-3775-Houston-Weather-Examiner~y2010m5d29-WEATHERAmerica-Newsletter-Saturd ay-May-29-2010-at-650-PM-CT

Any thoughts? In other words, he's predicting no storms in June.


I'm not sure this blog would survive.

Can't get the link to work.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53605
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
i have search for that info its the one thing i can not get compare maps for


I found the link for the SAL in 2005 by month. Just go to the bottom and click on the month. There was a lot of SAL in 2005.



Link
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So it looks to me that there's a ULL forming over mexico and it will be diving into the GOM,this is what the models have been bringing to swfl as a TD.which it will not be,the models this time of year are not good at handling these tropical/hybrid scenerio's,imo
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Hurricane season begins Tuesday with $5.8 billion of work still in progress
By Sheila Grissett, The Times -Picayune
May 29, 2010, 11:00PM





More than $1.1 billion worth of construction on the levee system that rings the New Orleans region is finished and another $5.8 billion is under way as the curtain rises this week on a new hurricane season that many predict could be the most active since the grim Katrina-Rita year of 2005.

If forecasts are correct -- and that's always a crapshoot -- the cumulative effect of repairs, improvements and additions to 350 miles of levees, floodwalls and gates under the 159 finished contracts means that 2010 tropical storms will encounter a hardier system than the one that fell apart during Katrina almost five years ago, say numerous engineers familiar with the work.

"We're better off this year than last year. The system is already stronger and more resilient than at any time in history," said Karen Durham-Aguilera, the Army Corps of Engineers' Task Force Hope director ramrodding $14 billion in work to the federal Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System, which was known simply as the Hurricane Protection System before Katrina exposed its grave deficiencies.
hurricane-unfinished=floodwall.JPGTed Jackson / The Times-PicayuneArmy Corps of Engineer workers David Druss and Nick Silber on May 27 tour a concrete floodwall built atop the lakeside levee on the Industrial Canal where construction is ongoing on the surge barrier in eastern New Orleans. The new floodwall towers over the existing floodwall at 32 feet above sea level; the old wall, in the foregound, is 16 feet above sea level.

The overall rebuilding is far from complete. And until it is, the flood control system will still have gaps that would have to be plugged with giant sand bags and baskets, sheet piling or other materials able to hold back water.

More than 100 contracts remain to be awarded, including 16 that will be required to complete the new "100-year" level of protection that Congress authorized after Katrina. And of those contracts now in progress, some won't help at all until the 2011 storm season, but others will.

"There's a lot still to do, yes. But are we better off than ever before? Our engineers tell us absolutely," said Tim Doody, president of the Southeast Louisiana Flood Protection Authority-East overseeing levee operations in East Jefferson, St. Bernard Parish and the east bank of New Orleans. "And even though there's still a lot of work left to do, each passing day gives us a bit more protection.

"Having said that, it's important that everybody remember: We won't have 100-year protection until all the projects are finished next year or whenever the corps actually completes the work," he said.

"And even then, 100-year protection isn't nearly enough, so it will remain critical that residents go when the evacuation call is given," he said.

Post-Katrina urgency

More than 1,800 people died as a result of the Aug. 29, 2005, storm, most of them drowning in New Orleans when Katrina drove a record surge of water into the southeast Louisiana coast. Waves destroyed some levees, and in other cases floodwalls with no more than 8 or 9 feet of water against them collapsed.

As a result of that tragedy, Congress authorized about $14 billion worth of repairs and upgrades to the shattered flood protection system, the heart of which is upgrading it to provide "100-year" protection -- a misnomer because it has nothing to do with one storm blowing through each century. Instead, it's a flood event with a 26 percent chance of occurring in the life of a 30-year mortgage, according to the explanation favored by the American Society of Civil Engineers and other professional groups. By way of comparison, Katrina was generally considered to be a 396-year event, and it didn't even make a direct hit on the Louisiana coast.


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Larry Cosgrove, Weather America newletter indicates that there is a chance of no Tropical storms during the next 6 weeks.

The link is below:
http://www.examiner.com/x-3775-Houston-Weather-Examiner~y2010m5d29-WEATHERAmerica-Newsletter-Saturd ay-May-29-2010-at-650-PM-CT

Any thoughts? In other words, he's predicting no storms in June.
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Current Fatality Count Associated With Agatha
-----------------------------------------------------------------


El Salvador 5
Guatemala 15
Mexico 0
Nicaragua 1
-------------------
Total 21

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107. afj3
Quoting hurricane23:


Chances are slim. Upper level conditions are still quite hostile in the southern gulf. Moisture increase for florida.

Thanks!
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Goodnight all. Stay safe, and please no more stupid fighting.
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A Blind post without a source Link will always be Hounded here.

Kinda like Maps without a source other than ones Coloring.

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Quoting Grothar:


I believe that would depend on how far south the dust would be. There was plenty of SAL during 2005 but, if I remember, it was farther to the North and did not affect the storms which formed closer to the ITZ. Anyone have info on what the SAL was during 2005?
i have search for that info its the one thing i can not get compare maps for
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53605
Quoting nocaneindy:


Wow! One day this past week, I forget which,
SAL was nearly gone off the coast of Africa. Now its back with a vengeance. Hopefully it'll stick around for, say, the next 3 or 4 months.


I believe that would depend on how far south the dust would be. There was plenty of SAL during 2005 but, if I remember, it was farther to the North and did not affect the storms which formed closer to the ITZ. Anyone have info on what the SAL was during 2005?
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Quoting afj3:

Any chnace it could redevelop in the Caribbean?


Chances are slim. Upper level conditions are still quite hostile in the southern gulf. Moisture increase for florida.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


Define "normal start"

2005 had its first storm on June 8th, which was later than 2007 and 2 storms formed in June
Normal start to me is anything after June 1st.
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Quoting Patrap:
#74


The earthquake in Haiti, snowstorms in the North-East and the flooding in Tennessee have FEMA seeing red. They have about $1 Billion in projects outstanding due to past disasters including Katrina rebuilding efforts that they don't have adequate funding for.


I dont know where you get your info from, but its terribly WRONG.

Lets just say I'd like to see the link where you got this erroneous info.

FEMA News

I was on a Pre-Seasonal FEMA Discussion and Info conference call Last week for Portlight.org and none of what you posted was ever mentioned.

Period.







Click on your link that you posted. Then, scroll about 1/2 way down the page. You will see an article labled "As Hurricane Season Nears, Fema Funds Drying Up." It even quotes a FEMA official as saying basically what I did.
If you can't click on the link on the FEMA site, below is a direct link to the article.

Link
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May 30, 2010



May 30, 2005



*we've definitely got 2005 beat.
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Quoting Dakster:


That was my point -- 2010 may not eclipse 2005 because it will ahve at least a normal start. I would be REALLY worried if it started out early...


BTW, Agatha is falling apart like a cheap suit.


Define "normal start"

2005 had its first storm on June 8th, which was later than 2007 and 2 storms formed in June
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Quoting WinterAnalystwx13:


It wont though. It is expected to go away sometime soon...
it will take 10 to 14 days to traverse the basin then we will see where we stand from there
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53605
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


heres the latest dust scan



Wow! One day this past week, I forget which,
SAL was nearly gone off the coast of Africa. Now its back with a vengeance. Hopefully it'll stick around for, say, the next 3 or 4 months.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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