Tropical Storm Agatha, Pacaya volcano kill 15 in Guatemala; oil spill update
Tropical Storm Agatha, the first Eastern Pacific named storm of 2010, was short lived but deadly. Agatha was a tropical storm for just 12 hours, making landfall Saturday on the Pacific coast of Guatemala as a 45 mph tropical storm. However, the storm brought huge amounts of moisture inland that continue to be wrung out as heavy rains by the high mountains of Guatemala and the surrounding nations of Central America. So far, flooding and landslides have killed twelve people in Guatemala, and one person in neighboring El Salvador. According to the excellent Guatemala weather site, climaya.com, rainfall amounts of up to 152 mm (six inches) in 24 hours have occurred in some regions of Guatemala. The National Hurricane Center is warning that rainfall amounts of up to 30 inches may fall the next few days in some mountainous regions near where the storm has dissipated. Adding to the mayhem is fallout from the Pacaya volcano in Guatemala, which began erupting three days ago. At least three people have been killed by the volcano, located about 25 miles south of the capital, Guatemala City. The volcano has destroyed 800 homes with lava and brought moderate ash falls to the capital.
Figure 1. Visible satellite image of Tropical Storm Agatha at landfall. The storm was intensifying right up until landfall, and had an impressive "hot tower" of building cumulonimbus clouds near its center that brought heavy rains to Guatemala.
Figure 2. Flooding in Quetzaltenango, Zone 2, in Guatemala on May 29, 2010, after heavy rains from Tropical Storm Agatha. Image credit: Carlos Diaz, climaya.com
Oil spill update
Light onshore winds out of the south are expected to blow over the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Tuesday, resulting increased threats of oil to the Alabama and Mississippi barrier islands, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA. Winds are expected to shift to southwesterly on Wednesday and continue through Friday, increasing in force to 10 - 20 knots late in the week as a cold front approaches the Gulf. These persistent and strengthening southwesterly winds will likely bring oil very close to shore from Mississippi to the Florida Panhandle by next weekend.
Oil spill resources
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post Wednesday with answers to some of the common questions I get about the spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA trajectory forecasts
Deepwater Horizon Unified Command web site
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Surface current forecasts from NOAA's HYCOM model
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami
Join the "Hurricane Haven" with Dr. Jeff Masters: a new Internet radio show
Beginning next week, I'll be experimenting with a live 1-hour Internet radio show called "Hurricane Haven." The show will be aired at 4pm EDT on Tuesdays, with the first show June 1. Listeners will be able to call in and ask questions. Some topics I'll cover on the first show:
1) What's going on in the tropics right now
2) Preview of the coming hurricane season
3) How a hurricane might affect the oil spill
4) How the oil spill might affect a hurricane
5) New advancements in hurricane science presented at this month's AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
6) Haiti's vulnerability to a hurricane this season
I hope you can tune in to the broadcast, which will be at http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.h tml. If not, the show will be recorded and stored as a podcast.
I'll probably be back Monday with a quick update. Have a great holiday weekend!
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 — Blog Index
There isnt an anticyclone over it. The system is located in the left entry region of an upper ridge axis over the Caribbean, which is diffluent in nature. Thus we have ask ourselves is that convection self sustaining or diffluent enhanced? We would have to wait for it to persist.
Only 2005 and 2007 had cat 5's, in the past 5 years.
wasn't Gustav re classified as a CAT 5 when it hit Cuba?
No. However there is not much difference between a 155 mph and 160 mph storm. Despite this, Gustav was a cat 4.
I think the anticyclone is over it.. otherwise that convection would not be so circular
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.GIF
The mid-level energy near the Belize coast.
Convection can be circular in a diffluent environment. Also the convection is not where the system is located.
the system is reforming, based on satellite.. there seems to be a mid level circulation forming near or right around were that convection is.. I don't know where the surface low is, but I do see some developing circulation around that convection.
If its just diffluent flow then it will. if its self sustaining then it should remain.
Beginning of May
End of May
I would would agree with you that center reformation is possible in these cases
lets see what happens =)
Basically monitoring it as the day progresses.
The tripole is seen very well there.Warm in deep tropics,cold at subtropical Atlantic and warm north of that.
The blow up of convection in the Gulf of Honduras is not colocated with the area of maximum vorticity which is on the coast of Belize. If you take a look at the shortwave loop you will see the rotation right on the coast with the blob in an area of diffluence offshore.
Something to watch though, especially if they start to match up.
June Outlook
Under Tools->Internet Options->Advanced->Multimedia-> Make sure Enable automatic image resizing is checked.
AOI/XX/XL
MARK
17.8N/86.2W
that would put the center right under the convection.....o-O
the visible is showing a spin too.. but I can't really tell
I never figured out any such trick so I switched to Google Chrome...
Live feed
air rising from the lower levels to replace winds that are spreading out in the upper atmosphere. Rising air cools, condense and forms clouds. Extreme diffluence can cause air to rise even if surface convergence is absence. In that case we call it elevated convection. If a system s depending on diffluence for convection then it is not self sustaining.
The wind vectors are spreading as they rise creating divergence. This is enhancing the shower activity
That isn't a flame. It's methane gas. You have a low res feed that makes the gas bubbles look like a flame. Try the BP site for a better feed.
If the wind becomes SW or S and the pressure starts to fall that is the time to become concerned. For now, all we have offshore Belize is rain.
Viewing: 1551 - 1601
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 — Blog Index