Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting SLU:


how gusty are the winds?

It has actually turned quite ''calm'' at the moment (very strange); however, earlier winds were gusting at 70 mph near showers (at my location)

Why does the NHC even give it a mention at all with such a low %? I know they changed the rules. Are they expecting a piece to get thru at a near 0% to form in the Western Carribean?

Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
NHC mentions the wave but has it at 0%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED JUN 9 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS
PRODUCING SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH NO
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/LANDSEA

Wow. They think it has a chance. The only reason they would mention it and give it a near 0% chance is because they are somewhat concerned about what it may do beyond the 48 hours that the Tropical Weather Outlook covers.

Quoting scott39:
Why does the NHC even give it a mention at all with such a low %? I know they changed the rules. Are they expecting a piece to get thru at a near 0% to form in the Western Carribean?

Good morning, I was thinking the same thing.

I can only imagine the comments on here if the NHC didn't acknowledge it! lol

Notice that the outlook doesn't state any unfavorable conditions preventing it from developing. It almost always does when there is such a low chance.

The Tropical Weather Outlook only goes out 48 hours, so all they're saying is that there is a near 0% chance of it forming in the next 48 hours. I think they might just be giving it a circle to stay ahead of things; I think that they think it has more of a chance beyond 48 hours.

LOL

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Oh sorry, lol. Yes you are a "regular".

what are we the "irregulars"??

the wave will move into favorable conditions when it gets into the carribean.. that's why they put the circle

well central carribean

Quoting ryang:


It has actually turned quite ''calm'' at the moment (very strange); however, earlier winds were gusting at 70 mph near showers (at my location)

wow .. your airport has been reporting tropical storm force wind gusts too.

Quoting leo305:
the wave will move into favorable conditions when it gets into the carribean.. that's why they put the circle

Yup. My guess- they have a 40% chance of it forming at all. But that chance is outside the 48 hours so its irrelevant to the outlook.

If I'm right I like the way they're staying ahead of things

this wave may be are 1st name

LOL

0%

Quoting Jeff9641:


GFS has this as Alex in the GOM heading to Mexico. Some models however veer this north once it moves to the western Caribbean. This will be one to watch.

Veering north? Can you point me to a model that shows that? Like an Arlene type situation?

well all welcome too the 1st real wave too track of 2010 am all so forcasting 92L be for the day is out or by thursday or by the weekend

Quoting scott39:
Why does the NHC even give it a mention at all with such a low %? I know they changed the rules. Are they expecting a piece to get thru at a near 0% to form in the Western Carribean?

If they didn't they'd get a phone call every 5 minues saying, "Hello fine sir, when exactly will the eye of soon to be Alex pass right over my house?"

i think the nhc is doing some in new this year

Yeah I see why 0% is strange, with that logic just circle the entire basin right? (where is the stoopid circle?)

But they've already done it before this season, why is everyone surprised now haha.

Quoting Tazmanian:
well all welcome too the 1st real wave too track of 2010 am all so forcasting 92L be for the day is out or by thursday or by the weekend

You mean the circled wave? Or the wave soon to come off of Africa?

Quoting pottery:
Good Evening all
Just had another nice shower. 1.3" for the day...so far.

i grew up on a bayou near panama city. we didnt have air conditioning. sometimes you would take a shower and dry off and never ever get really dry. the car didnt have ac either. you just went around all clammy. hair all flat and damp. sometimes i would take a shower and at the end make the water real cold so i could at least cool off a little. i dont know how we lived without ac, i couldnt do it now. amazing.

Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


Veering north? Can you point me to a model that shows that? Like an Arlene type situation?

I think it was the GFS or nogaps.. it forces it W/ then WNW/NW into cuba.. but not as anything much, maybe a swirl. Still..

Quoting P451:


Way to go out on a limb....

Maybe today.
Maybe tomorrow.
Maybe 96 hours later.
Maybe it will maybe it won't.


Too early in the season for this type of scrutiny.

IMO, of course.

Agreed. I have 100% confidence in that something or nothing may develop out of this wave.

Quoting HurricaneSwirl:
Yeah I see why 0% is strange, with that logic just circle the entire basin right? (where is the stoopid circle?)

But they've already done it before this season, why is everyone surprised now haha.

NEAR 0% in the next 48 hours. Keep in mind the 48 hours part and the NEAR part.

Wow, that is one interesting TWO...

Whoa, whoa, whoa....

Doesn't every disturbance out there right now have a 0% chance of forming?

XX/XX/XL
MARK
12.1n/58.2w

Quoting P451:


GFS last year had every wave off of Africa turning into a Hurricane last June and July.

Ghost storms...

To trust any models in June and early July in the tropics is more foolish than usual.

They seem to act as if it's the prime part of the season (like with 90 and 91 respectively, both becoming major Cat 2 systems on multiple models, and in reality one got halfway to being a gale center and the other was just a puff of T-Storms off of Belize).

I tend to trust the CMC, GFS I never trust anymore

Quoting gator23:

0% in the next 48 hours. Keep in mind the 48 hours part.

I've actually been saying that for the past 3 posts before that, I was just acknowledging why people might think it was weird.

Quoting P451:


Well, that is the point isn't it. What will it do when it reaches more favorable conditions. Yet, will it be intact when it does is the question. Not too convinced it will be.

Alex will come one day...not convinced this is the one that will do it.

the shear isn't severe enough to completely rip it into shreds, but it's somewhat high, it will get through it in 24-36 hours.. then it will enter an area of very low to no shear in the central carribean and western carribean.

06Z NAM has something pretty serious in the Eastern Caribbean within the next 3 days:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/nam/06/index_sl7_m_loop.shtml

Quoting Weather456:
What I don't understand is that 6 storms in 2005 - Dennis, Emily, Katrina, Rita, Stan and Wilma - caused much of the death and destruction. Now when people say that this will not be a 2005, number-wise, does it really matter? I mean given the exceptional agreement in environmental conditions, most importantly ssts, I would say, we could have those 6 storms with the 18 named storms being predicted. The numbers of 2005 don't really matter to me, is the intensity of the individual storms this year and where they hit that does. Mitch 1998? So I find it strange when people downplay the potential of this season by using such phrases as "this is not going to be another 2005 of record breaking activity"

i so agree with you! there were so many but most of them honestly just cooled things off ad helped the drought. but my gosh those bad ones, its terrifying to think of even ONE katrina hitting anywhere. and katrina was so horrible it overshadowed the rest. I have a friend that was in wilma and he kept saying "everyone is talking about nothing but katrina and we are devastated here..."so just one storm of tjat caliber would be terrible and two magnified exponentially. I completely agreem it wasnt the number of storms in 2005 but the intensity of even one of the worst ones!

Quoting HurricaneSwirl:
06Z NAM has something pretty serious in the Eastern Caribbean within the next 3 days:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/nam/06/index_sl7_m_loop.shtml

The NAM isnt a tropical model. Or even a global model.

Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Whoa, whoa, whoa....

Doesn't every disturbance out there right now have a 0% chance of forming?

they didnt say 0% they said NEAR 0% in 48 hours. That suggests that is may form in the next 48 hours however formation is more likely after this period.

Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


Veering north? Can you point me to a model that shows that? Like an Arlene type situation?

Same here. I want to see those models. Not saying they aren't out there. I just haven't seen them.

Quoting Stormchaser2007:


The NAM isnt a tropical model. Or even a global model.

It was still interesting to me. It probably doesn't take into account several factors that the tropical models do though.

jeff941...I see your response. Ignore my post #1545.

Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


I've actually been saying that for the past 3 posts before that, I was just acknowledging why people might think it was weird.

This wasnt directed at you. It was an explanation to our less experienced members. I was trying to help them digest the information.

Quoting gator23:


they didnt say 0% they said NEAR 0% in 48 hours. That suggests that is may form in the next 48 hours however formation is more likely after this period.

Yep I agree. It got rounded down to 0%, which mean they had it at 1-4% chance. Either way, the outlook implies that they think it has a greater chance beyond the 48 hours that the outlook covers..

Quoting Jeff9641:


I saw this on the NOGAPS yesterday IKE but we all know how the NOGAPS is with storms. If the ridge splits IKE as a result of a trough building down from the north then this could come to the Panhandle.

^-^

:)