Floods kill 16 in Arkansas; dozens missing

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:24 PM GMT on June 11, 2010

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Heavy rains in excess of seven inches fell over southwestern Arkansas overnight, triggering flash floods that killed at least sixteen people in Caddo Gap, in the rugged Ouachita Mountains. Forty people are missing, with dozens injured. The closest weather station to the disaster is Mount Ida, which recorded 7.16" of rain over the past 48 hours. The USGS is reporting that the Caddo River in Caddo Gap rose from 8.4 feet at 3am CDT to 25.39 feet in just five hours, reaching the 2nd highest flood height on the river since records began in 1989. The Little Missouri River west of Caddo Gap rose 20 feet overnight, from 3 feet to 23.5 feet. The previous highest flood in the 22-year record at this location was just 14.66 feet, set in 2008. You can look at local rainfall amounts and river flood levels in the region using our wundermap with the "USGS River" layer turned on.

Andy Revkin at the New York Times has a blog worth reading on the disaster.


Figure 1. Radar estimated rainfall for June 9 - 11 over Southwest Arkansas. Rainfall amounts in excess of eight inches are indicated for Caddo Gap, where today's flood disaster occurred.

Oil spill update
Southeast to south winds of 10 - 15 knots will blow today through Saturday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. These winds will keep oil near the shores of Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi, and the extreme western Florida Panhandle, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The winds become light an variable Sunday through Tuesday, which will result in little movement of the spill. The long range 8 - 16 day forecast from the GFS model indicates a continued regime of light winds, mostly out of the south or southeast. This wind regime will likely push oil onto sections of the eastern Louisiana coast during the period 1 - 2 weeks from now.


Figure 2. The oil spill as imaged on June 10, 2010, by NASA's Aqua satellite.

Oil spill resources
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
NOAA's fact sheet on Hurricanes and the Oil Spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
Oil trajectory forecasts from NOAA
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

The tropical Atlantic is quiet right now, with no models predicting tropical cyclone development over the next seven days. I'll have a new post either Saturday or Monday.

Jeff Masters

Wicked sky (vanpet)
Storm front pushing through jacksonville Arkansas!
Wicked sky
flash flood russellville arkansas friday june 11th 2010 (yfoog)
flash flood russellville arkansas friday june 11th 2010
flash flood russellville arkansas friday june 11th 2010

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Check out the GOM now.....wow

Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
3611. viman
geez... i miss quickscat...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
ALEX to be born soon.

an early season monster in the making.

a situation similar to Hurricane ANDREW
in '92 may be setting up.

Trouble. Trouble. Trouble.

shear values are very low. even more concerning is the likely WEST/WNW LONG TERM TRACK.


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3609. JLPR2
Quoting TampaSpin:


PR and DR could be in trouble with Future Alex


ah.. dont say that, I want to sleep happily once I do XD
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting xcool:
D-max now wow .dnot leave tamp


PR and DR could be in trouble with Future Alex
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
3607. xcool


oh my
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15620
3606. xcool
D-max now wow .dnot leave tamp
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15620
3604. JLPR2
Here comes D-max

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting xcool:
TampaSpin wt[[[ you up wow


Gave the Website a facelift changes.....i like it better! Hitting the sack now.....GOOD NITE!
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
3602. xcool


Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15620
3599. xcool
TampaSpin wt[[[ you up wow
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15620
3598. xcool
w/b rob
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15620
Tropical Update from TampaSpin

Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
3594. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting CyberStorm:
NHC went to orange.dont know if its been posted yet
yep
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3593. JLPR2
O_O yep
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3592. xcool
ecmw hmm
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15620
3591. emguy
Yup...The system was definately cycling...Overall, after the convective die down, 92L was better organized, which was a definate evolution toward the better/increased convective development we're seeing now. She's definately in play for further strengthening/organization (should say he, cause this may eventually become Alex).
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3590. Levi32
Alright, I'm outta here for the night. 'Till tomorrow all.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3589. xcool



Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15620
NHC went to orange.dont know if its been posted yet
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3587. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
this is uncharted territory here
rare in its self
to be this far this early
in this part of the basin
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 130521
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN JUN 13 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 800 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION.
ALTHOUGH CYCLONE FORMATIONS IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN ARE
QUITE RARE THIS EARLY IN THE SEASON...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE
LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Wow, just dropped in and it looks like we possibly have a TD in the making??

I am always reluctant to believe that a tropical disturbance that has yet to be declared a TD would move any further north. So, the track guidance seems a little off to me. I believe this system will track further west. So, my question is what will the conditions be like in the Eastern caribbean 2-3 days from now. Any takers?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3584. xcool
ok rob
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15620
3583. xcool
rob low wind shear
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15620
3581. xcool
I MISS WEATHERTAP
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15620
3580. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
rapid convective dev is occuring

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
wow.... a very dangerous tropical weather pattern is currently setting up in the atlantic.
Wind shear values are beginning to fall all across the central atlantic area
and high pressure ridging to the north is beginning to build in. massive highs will
be setting up to bridge and block any northerly ventures from the tropics.

most likely this will eliminate troughs from picking up any developing tropical systems in the near future.
and Low and behold like clock work there is a developing system in the southern Atlantic tonight which may well end up being our first TD. According to my current calculations this system will likely develop and is almost a certain shoe in for herberts box.

The TROPICS ARE SURE TO BE MAKING NEWS IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH THIS SETUP.

IF You live in the Carribean or South Florida.

STAY TUNED!!!

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3577. hydrus
Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3576. eye
has a shear zone to get through and also it has to completely detach from the ITCZ...lots of them look good when they still have the ITCZ to help them out....oh well, another one bites the dust.....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3575. xcool
Bertha 1996 early season Cape Verde HMMM
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15620
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3573. Levi32
Quoting jamesrainier:
So if 92L becomes a Cat 1 that makes it the earliest Cape Verde hurricane?


Very doubtful that it will get that strong.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3571. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
system pushing across eastern canada over offshore area
pushing down on the flow
coming from just nw of trinny
ne ward over eastern carb
across the cen se atl
92 gets push down
forced below 11 till 42
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
So if 92L becomes a Cat 1 that makes it the earliest Cape Verde hurricane?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3569. xcool
BETTER organization
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15620
3567. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15620
3566. eye
another bust, 3 in a row, getting old.....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3565. xcool
WHERE PAT AT ?
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15620
3564. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting Levi32:
Convection building back strong in another pulse as soon as the other one starts to go down. This one's a fighter and is not going away overnight like the other disturbances so far this year.

this one be a player
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3563. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
crow and i like mine BBQ
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3562. xcool
ICANNOT STOP LMAO
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15620

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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