Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Floods kill 16 in Arkansas; dozens missing

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:24 PM GMT on June 11, 2010

Heavy rains in excess of seven inches fell over southwestern Arkansas overnight, triggering flash floods that killed at least sixteen people in Caddo Gap, in the rugged Ouachita Mountains. Forty people are missing, with dozens injured. The closest weather station to the disaster is Mount Ida, which recorded 7.16" of rain over the past 48 hours. The USGS is reporting that the Caddo River in Caddo Gap rose from 8.4 feet at 3am CDT to 25.39 feet in just five hours, reaching the 2nd highest flood height on the river since records began in 1989. The Little Missouri River west of Caddo Gap rose 20 feet overnight, from 3 feet to 23.5 feet. The previous highest flood in the 22-year record at this location was just 14.66 feet, set in 2008. You can look at local rainfall amounts and river flood levels in the region using our wundermap with the "USGS River" layer turned on.

Andy Revkin at the New York Times has a blog worth reading on the disaster.

Figure 1. Radar estimated rainfall for June 9 - 11 over Southwest Arkansas. Rainfall amounts in excess of eight inches are indicated for Caddo Gap, where today's flood disaster occurred.

Oil spill update
Southeast to south winds of 10 - 15 knots will blow today through Saturday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. These winds will keep oil near the shores of Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi, and the extreme western Florida Panhandle, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The winds become light an variable Sunday through Tuesday, which will result in little movement of the spill. The long range 8 - 16 day forecast from the GFS model indicates a continued regime of light winds, mostly out of the south or southeast. This wind regime will likely push oil onto sections of the eastern Louisiana coast during the period 1 - 2 weeks from now.

Figure 2. The oil spill as imaged on June 10, 2010, by NASA's Aqua satellite.

Oil spill resources
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
NOAA's fact sheet on Hurricanes and the Oil Spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
Oil trajectory forecasts from NOAA
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

The tropical Atlantic is quiet right now, with no models predicting tropical cyclone development over the next seven days. I'll have a new post either Saturday or Monday.

Jeff Masters

Wicked sky (vanpet)

Storm front pushing through jacksonville Arkansas!

flash flood russellville arkansas friday june 11th 2010 (yfoog)

flash flood russellville arkansas friday june 11th 2010

Categories: Flood

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652. KoritheMan 2:21 AM GMT on June 12, 2010
Quoting WinterAnalystwx13: Hurricane Trivia 3/5 NAME THIS HURRICANE! A. Erin B. Ike C. Katrina D. Hazel Erin, 2001. Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 410 Comments: 15463

653. TampaSpin 2:22 AM GMT on June 12, 2010
Quoting xcool: TampaSpin lmaooooo crazy old man haha Hey now.......49 is not old i hope. Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747

655. xcool 2:22 AM GMT on June 12, 2010
weather456 your bored huh ?? Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15503

656. 7544 2:22 AM GMT on June 12, 2010
xcool we need a invest lol Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5925

657. Cavin Rawlins 2:22 AM GMT on June 12, 2010
Quoting xcool: weather456 your bored huh??. Nope...I am working on my blog for Sunday. No use wasting these quiet times.... Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076

658. gator23 2:22 AM GMT on June 12, 2010
Quoting WinterAnalystwx13: ::Whispers to Gator23:: Yes, I meant NEW ENGLAND :P LMAO! you never can tell with this blog Member Since: August 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1994

660. xcool 2:23 AM GMT on June 12, 2010
TampaSpin haha i'm not ready for 49.. Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15503

661. TampaSpin 2:23 AM GMT on June 12, 2010
Quoting gator23: Its ok lets talk about facts 1)You guys want a new stadium we are building ours 2)You wish they were the"TAMPA" Rays we will be the Miami Marlins 3)You wanted to beat the Phillies but got swept WE sweep them all the time. YOU are way to knowledgeable to be on a weather blog......You might be really dangerous at forecasting.....LOL Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747

662. xcool 2:24 AM GMT on June 12, 2010
Weather456 ok kool. Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15503

664. Orcasystems 2:24 AM GMT on June 12, 2010
AOI AOI AOI AOI TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 77 Comments: 26077

665. xcool 2:24 AM GMT on June 12, 2010
7544 yeah bigtime Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15503

667. weather42009 2:24 AM GMT on June 12, 2010
Quoting Weather456: Nope...I am working on my blog for Sunday. No use wasting these quiet times.... That is why you are at the top, you research during the quiet times. I am looking forward to the blog on Sunday!

668. gator23 2:24 AM GMT on June 12, 2010
Quoting TampaSpin: YOU are way to knowledgeable to be on a weather blog......You might be really dangerous at forecasting.....LOL Tampa, I forecast quietly to myself Member Since: August 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1994

669. xcool 2:25 AM GMT on June 12, 2010
Baltimorebirds yep Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15503

670. KoritheMan 2:26 AM GMT on June 12, 2010
Quoting WinterAnalystwx13: Ding Ding Ding! Your Correct!!! I know Atlantic hurricanes like the back of my hand. Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 410 Comments: 15463

671. TampaSpin 2:26 AM GMT on June 12, 2010
Quoting gator23: Tampa, I forecast quietly to myself Heck i was considering making you a Feature Blogger on my Site for the HUMOR alone.....ROFLMAO Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747

672. HaboobsRsweet 2:26 AM GMT on June 12, 2010
Alright...time for bed so I can get up bright and early for South Korea and Greece then Argentina Nigeria and the moment we all have been waiting for...USA England!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Member Since: May 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1640

674. ElConando 2:27 AM GMT on June 12, 2010
A QUIZ!!! What is the shortest lived tropical cyclone (that was named). Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3703

675. gator23 2:27 AM GMT on June 12, 2010
Quoting KoritheMan: I know Atlantic hurricanes like the back of my hand. What Atlantic Hurricane was forecast to impact the Tampa area but instead jogged right punishing unsuspecting Miamians with flooding rains and damaging winds. Member Since: August 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1994

676. KoritheMan 2:28 AM GMT on June 12, 2010
Quoting WinterAnalystwx13: Hurricane Trivia 4/5 NAME THIS HURRICANE! A. Hazel B. Wilma C. Dean D. NOT HERE If you choose not here, then you must name the hurricane!! I'm going to go out on a limb and say Frances? Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 410 Comments: 15463

677. CybrTeddy 2:28 AM GMT on June 12, 2010
Quoting WinterAnalystwx13: Hurricane Trivia 4/5 NAME THIS HURRICANE! A. Hazel B. Wilma C. Dean D. NOT HERE If you choose not here, then you must name the hurricane!! None of the answers are correct so D. Hurricane Fred. Korthie I know Hurricanes like the back of my hand too, especially since I've watched them on this blog for so many years. Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 253 Comments: 20260

680. gator23 2:28 AM GMT on June 12, 2010
Quoting TampaSpin: Heck i was considering making you a Feature Blogger on my Site for the HUMOR alone.....ROFLMAO ouch. Member Since: August 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1994

681. docrod 2:28 AM GMT on June 12, 2010
Quoting pottery: Glad you enjoyed it! There are lots of good ones on UTube, (and some very bed ones too) The same tune, done by BP Renegades that same year was fantastic. A different arrangement entirely. I would have put it up, but the BP thing would have annoyed people! Oh yes I enjoyed it ... Do you know of a band called the Desperados??? - I hope I have the name correct (maybe I saw the "Renagades" - don't know - Jimmy Buffett was there too). I believe they are from Trinidad and I saw them in the 1980's in Key West. - good eve and take care! Member Since: April 21, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 605

682. HaboobsRsweet 2:29 AM GMT on June 12, 2010
Quoting WinterAnalystwx13: Hurricane Trivia 4/5 NAME THIS HURRICANE! A. Hazel B. Wilma C. Dean D. NOT HERE If you choose not here, then you must name the hurricane!! ike Member Since: May 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1640

683. KoritheMan 2:29 AM GMT on June 12, 2010
Quoting gator23: What Atlantic Hurricane was forecast to impact the Tampa area but instead jogged right punishing unsuspecting Miamians with flooding rains and damaging winds. Irene in 1999? Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 410 Comments: 15463

684. CybrTeddy 2:29 AM GMT on June 12, 2010
Quoting ElConando: A QUIZ!!! What is the shortest lived tropical cyclone (that was named). Tropical Storm Chris (not 2006) EDIT yea, it was Chris of 2000. Tropical Storm Chris formed several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles on August 18 from a tropical wave. It moved to the west-northwest, becoming a tropical storm for 6 hours before dissipating on August 19. No damage was reported, as the storm remained at sea throughout its lifetime. Chris is one of the few systems to be ripped apart due to vertical shear in the deep tropics during a non-El Ni�o year, along with Alex of 1998 Note this ties in to the fact shear shouldn't be a terrible issue this year. Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 253 Comments: 20260

685. KoritheMan 2:30 AM GMT on June 12, 2010
Quoting ElConando: A QUIZ!!! What is the shortest lived tropical cyclone (that was named). Barry in 2007 persisted for only a little over 24 hours. Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 410 Comments: 15463

686. xcool 2:30 AM GMT on June 12, 2010
D Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15503

687. SouthALWX 2:30 AM GMT on June 12, 2010
for the record ... tineye makes this ridiculously easy .. ;) Member Since: August 27, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1497

688. gator23 2:30 AM GMT on June 12, 2010
Quoting TampaSpin: Heck i was considering making you a Feature Blogger on my Site for the HUMOR alone.....ROFLMAO Whats really funny is that you will never know what its like to win a world series Member Since: August 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1994

689. Cavin Rawlins 2:30 AM GMT on June 12, 2010
Quoting WinterAnalystwx13: Hurricane Trivia 4/5 NAME THIS HURRICANE! A. Hazel B. Wilma C. Dean D. NOT HERE If you choose not here, then you must name the hurricane!! It cannot be Hazel since MODIS did not existed back then. It cannot be Wilma because of the eye and its structure It cannot be Dean because there is no geographical locations since Dean acquired his eye near the islands. It's Fred 2009. Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076

692. HaboobsRsweet 2:31 AM GMT on June 12, 2010
Quoting ElConando: A QUIZ!!! What is the shortest lived tropical cyclone (that was named). Claudette Member Since: May 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1640

693. gator23 2:31 AM GMT on June 12, 2010
Quoting KoritheMan: Irene in 1999? impressive, yes thats correct Member Since: August 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1994

694. xcool 2:31 AM GMT on June 12, 2010
I SAID D LOL Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15503

695. weather42009 2:31 AM GMT on June 12, 2010
Quoting Weather456: It cannot be Hazel since MODIS did not existed back then. It cannot be Wilma because of the eye and its structure It cannot be Dean because there is no geographical locations since Dean acquired his eye near the islands. It's Fred 2009. LOL!

697. gator23 2:32 AM GMT on June 12, 2010
Quoting Baltimorebirds: Charley of 2004. No Miami was untouched by Charley Member Since: August 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1994

700. TampaSpin 2:33 AM GMT on June 12, 2010
Quoting gator23: Whats really funny is that you will never know what its like to win a world series WOW i hope we play you in the Big Dance!...:) Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747

701. Cavin Rawlins 2:33 AM GMT on June 12, 2010
Quoting Baltimorebirds: Hurricane fred was one of the most symmetrical hurricanes I've seen. IMO, Isabel 2003 Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076

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