Floods kill 16 in Arkansas; dozens missing

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:24 PM GMT on June 11, 2010

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Heavy rains in excess of seven inches fell over southwestern Arkansas overnight, triggering flash floods that killed at least sixteen people in Caddo Gap, in the rugged Ouachita Mountains. Forty people are missing, with dozens injured. The closest weather station to the disaster is Mount Ida, which recorded 7.16" of rain over the past 48 hours. The USGS is reporting that the Caddo River in Caddo Gap rose from 8.4 feet at 3am CDT to 25.39 feet in just five hours, reaching the 2nd highest flood height on the river since records began in 1989. The Little Missouri River west of Caddo Gap rose 20 feet overnight, from 3 feet to 23.5 feet. The previous highest flood in the 22-year record at this location was just 14.66 feet, set in 2008. You can look at local rainfall amounts and river flood levels in the region using our wundermap with the "USGS River" layer turned on.

Andy Revkin at the New York Times has a blog worth reading on the disaster.


Figure 1. Radar estimated rainfall for June 9 - 11 over Southwest Arkansas. Rainfall amounts in excess of eight inches are indicated for Caddo Gap, where today's flood disaster occurred.

Oil spill update
Southeast to south winds of 10 - 15 knots will blow today through Saturday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. These winds will keep oil near the shores of Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi, and the extreme western Florida Panhandle, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The winds become light an variable Sunday through Tuesday, which will result in little movement of the spill. The long range 8 - 16 day forecast from the GFS model indicates a continued regime of light winds, mostly out of the south or southeast. This wind regime will likely push oil onto sections of the eastern Louisiana coast during the period 1 - 2 weeks from now.


Figure 2. The oil spill as imaged on June 10, 2010, by NASA's Aqua satellite.

Oil spill resources
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
NOAA's fact sheet on Hurricanes and the Oil Spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
Oil trajectory forecasts from NOAA
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

The tropical Atlantic is quiet right now, with no models predicting tropical cyclone development over the next seven days. I'll have a new post either Saturday or Monday.

Jeff Masters

Wicked sky (vanpet)
Storm front pushing through jacksonville Arkansas!
Wicked sky
flash flood russellville arkansas friday june 11th 2010 (yfoog)
flash flood russellville arkansas friday june 11th 2010
flash flood russellville arkansas friday june 11th 2010

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Quoting Weather456:
There is a first time everything and we are witnessing the tagging of an invest at 6N/34W on June 12 2010....amazing
I'm going to write that one down.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
Quoting StormW:


Sure I am...I have some busts...I bust at least twice a season. My forecasts aren't perfect, nor am I always correct.
And humble too. Another reason your well respected here StormW
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormW:



LOL! Not really, that's good meteorology.
Absolutely. You can't be a good meteorologist if you don't review your mistakes and put them to use in the future.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
1808. JLPR2
Quoting StormW:


Sure I am...I have some busts...I bust at least twice a season. My forecasts aren't perfect, nor am I always correct.


That's meteorology for ya! :D
But you are good. ^^
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8459
There is a first time everything and we are witnessing the tagging of an invest at 6N/34W on June 12 2010....amazing
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting Weather456:
SW you were right 92L is born.
Yeah, I was kind of surprised it happened so quickly. I was thinking tomorrow. I applaud you StormW.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
1804. scott39
Im confused------ Whats new?? Doesnt the NHC lable potiential Invests, 92L, TD ,TS ect..? Why havent they broke the crayons out at 2pm? I mean they will label something near 0% with a yellow circle, but not 92L?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormW:


Yeah...ya can't pay attention to the models anyway on the initialization...they have to "run" with the system for at least a couple runs or so.
Exactly.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
SW you were right 92L is born.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
1799. Walshy
Wyoming Snow Storm with 5Feet possible!

Statement as of 2:33 PM MDT on June 12, 2010

... Winter Storm Warning remains in effect until noon MDT Sunday...

A Winter Storm Warning remains in effect until noon MDT Sunday.

* Summary and timing... heavy snow has fallen down to 6500 feet
today with snowfall of two inches an hour. 10 to 15 inches has
fallen above 8000 feet with 5 to 10 inches down to 7500 feet.
Heave snow will continue this afternoon through tonight and
Sunday morning.

* Snow accumulations... snowfall between 3 and 5 feet is expected
above 8000 feet with 1 to 3 feet down to 6500 feet. 6 to 12
inches is expected down to 6000 feet.

92L is finally here I see!
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Quoting Weather456:
July 2005



I think I see Dennis on the far Left
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1796. amd
I can't think of an Atlantic invest labeled so far south before, and if the invest wasn't so far south, I would think that TD formation would be imminent.

The invest looks well-ventilated. Maybe the upper level anti-cyclone is closer to the invest than labeled on the CIMSS maps.

CIMSS East Atlantic Shear Map
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormW:


I was just curious...just wanted to see if my forecast was gonna verify, or if I had to go back later and find out why it didn't.
You are such a perfectionist, lol.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Remember that SHIPS and LGEM intensity uses the BAMM for track, which keeps the system below 15N. If track is further north there would be higher sheer. And yes, SHIPS uses sheer and the direction of sheer.
OK. Having looked at the steering layers, I don't see any obvious reason why it should go north, but it also depends on what is being forecast. In any case, Joe B. seems to think it might make it into the Caribbean as a weak system. Interesting to watch if it can survive.
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Quoting SiestaKeySam:
Half of the blog already is, Storm. Witht he exception of your impeccable professionalims, of course.
Um, no one is worried. It just got labeled invest, and the only reason that the SHIPS takes the system to hurricane strength is because it uses the BAMM model for guidance and the BAMM keeps the system well below the shear.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
Quoting IKE:


I am so worried this is going to get in the Bays...Choctawhatchee Bay over here.

I just went to town and back on Highway 331 in DFS,FL....traffic is heavy heading to the beaches of south Walton.


That has always been my big worry. That's the breeding grounds. It's already in Pensacola Bay, just not sure how far. It seems like each high tide brings it farther north. Winds are in your favor for the time being. Not much of a westerly component.
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1788. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)


825

WHXX01 KWBC 122048

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

2048 UTC SAT JUN 12 2010



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922010) 20100612 1800 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

100612 1800 100613 0600 100613 1800 100614 0600



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 6.3N 31.0W 6.9N 33.3W 7.9N 35.5W 8.9N 37.7W

BAMD 6.3N 31.0W 6.7N 33.9W 7.3N 36.7W 7.9N 39.5W

BAMM 6.3N 31.0W 6.8N 33.8W 7.5N 36.4W 8.2N 38.8W

LBAR 6.3N 31.0W 6.6N 33.3W 7.4N 36.1W 8.4N 39.2W

SHIP 20KTS 24KTS 33KTS 44KTS

DSHP 20KTS 24KTS 33KTS 44KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

100614 1800 100615 1800 100616 1800 100617 1800



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 10.1N 39.9W 12.0N 44.9W 13.3N 50.2W 14.4N 55.2W

BAMD 8.7N 42.2W 10.2N 47.5W 11.8N 52.3W 12.9N 55.8W

BAMM 8.9N 41.2W 10.1N 46.3W 11.2N 51.9W 11.8N 56.9W

LBAR 9.5N 42.3W 12.8N 48.2W 15.8N 51.3W 16.3N 53.0W

SHIP 55KTS 73KTS 75KTS 73KTS

DSHP 55KTS 73KTS 75KTS 73KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 6.3N LONCUR = 31.0W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 9KT

LATM12 = 6.1N LONM12 = 29.3W DIRM12 = 273DEG SPDM12 = 8KT

LATM24 = 6.0N LONM24 = 27.5W

WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 20KT

CENPRS = 1012MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = D

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$
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1786. EricSFL
Quoting spathy:
Strange name!
Siesta Key is S. of Tampa.
Or is there another one?


Nope. That's the only one.
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Quoting StormW:


Who's worried?
Sam is.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
Quoting weatherblog:


LOL
LOL! It came much sooner than later.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
1781. JLPR2
Quoting Weather456:
July 2005



wow, awesome video, that was one heck of a storm XD
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8459
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Nope. It should be labeled within 18 hours, if convection can sustain itself.


LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormW:
Do we have 92L yet? I've been away.
Yes, it was updated about 15-20 minutes ago.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
1774. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
INV/92/L
MARK
6.3N/33.6W

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
July 2005

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1769. EricSFL
Quoting SiestaKeySam:


Middle Keys, you?


Just wondering... How come your post name is "Siesta Key" and you said you're from the Midddle Keys? Siesta Key is actually located in Sarasota County...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SiestaKeySam:


They do not, actually! That's why they need to be discontinued.
Uh, okay, strident opinion there! NOAA still runs CLIPER too. Every model has value or they wouldn't use it. It's not as if there is a bloated budget for weather forecasting.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Remember that SHIPS and LGEM intensity uses the BAMM for track, which keeps the system below 15N. If track is further north there would be higher sheer. And yes, SHIPS uses sheer and the direction of sheer.
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 13 Comments: 10462
Quoting HaboobsRsweet:

It looks ok and is in an environment where it can survive for a bit and maybe gain a little strength. Could it form up? Sure. Would it be nice to wait for the rest of the models to intialize on it? Yes. But just look at what is in front of it I am not excited yet.
If it stays south of 15N it can develop.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
Quoting IKE:


I'm not a rocket scientist or met. Based on model runs I've seen, my answer would be no....but that is subject to change.

"Critter"? Where you from? Uh...forget that question.


sigh...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1764. IKE
Quoting PcolaDan:


I'm afraid we may get hammered.
"An additional plume of non-weathered oil is now three miles south of Pensacola Pass, officials said this morning."

This is RAW crude, more like what has hit LA coast.


I am so worried this is going to get in the Bays...Choctawhatchee Bay over here.

I just went to town and back on Highway 331 in DFS,FL....traffic is heavy heading to the beaches of south Walton.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting JDSmith:



Looks pretty good right now though, eh?

It looks ok and is in an environment where it can survive for a bit and maybe gain a little strength. Could it form up? Sure. Would it be nice to wait for the rest of the models to intialize on it? Yes. But just look at what is in front of it I am not excited yet.
Member Since: May 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1640

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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