Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Floods kill 16 in Arkansas; dozens missing

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:24 PM GMT on June 11, 2010

Heavy rains in excess of seven inches fell over southwestern Arkansas overnight, triggering flash floods that killed at least sixteen people in Caddo Gap, in the rugged Ouachita Mountains. Forty people are missing, with dozens injured. The closest weather station to the disaster is Mount Ida, which recorded 7.16" of rain over the past 48 hours. The USGS is reporting that the Caddo River in Caddo Gap rose from 8.4 feet at 3am CDT to 25.39 feet in just five hours, reaching the 2nd highest flood height on the river since records began in 1989. The Little Missouri River west of Caddo Gap rose 20 feet overnight, from 3 feet to 23.5 feet. The previous highest flood in the 22-year record at this location was just 14.66 feet, set in 2008. You can look at local rainfall amounts and river flood levels in the region using our wundermap with the "USGS River" layer turned on.

Andy Revkin at the New York Times has a blog worth reading on the disaster.

Figure 1. Radar estimated rainfall for June 9 - 11 over Southwest Arkansas. Rainfall amounts in excess of eight inches are indicated for Caddo Gap, where today's flood disaster occurred.

Oil spill update
Southeast to south winds of 10 - 15 knots will blow today through Saturday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. These winds will keep oil near the shores of Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi, and the extreme western Florida Panhandle, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The winds become light an variable Sunday through Tuesday, which will result in little movement of the spill. The long range 8 - 16 day forecast from the GFS model indicates a continued regime of light winds, mostly out of the south or southeast. This wind regime will likely push oil onto sections of the eastern Louisiana coast during the period 1 - 2 weeks from now.

Figure 2. The oil spill as imaged on June 10, 2010, by NASA's Aqua satellite.

Oil spill resources
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
NOAA's fact sheet on Hurricanes and the Oil Spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
Oil trajectory forecasts from NOAA
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

The tropical Atlantic is quiet right now, with no models predicting tropical cyclone development over the next seven days. I'll have a new post either Saturday or Monday.

Jeff Masters

Wicked sky (vanpet)

Storm front pushing through jacksonville Arkansas!

flash flood russellville arkansas friday june 11th 2010 (yfoog)

flash flood russellville arkansas friday june 11th 2010

Categories: Flood

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2452. Stormchaser2007 1:04 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09: Yeah not me, I'm stuck with coke, lol. Cokes just as good lol Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15248

2453. gator23 1:04 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting Baltimorebirds: LoL.I think he will be on tomorrow giving us his opinion about the wave dying,and this season being a bust. he and sleet are the same guy. He is crazy Member Since: August 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1994

2454. KoritheMan 1:04 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting Weather456: Sure Isn't CIMSS generally more accurate than SSD? Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 411 Comments: 15473

2456. MrstormX 1:04 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4233

2457. Stormchaser2007 1:04 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn: SHIPS still shows intensification and this time track is interpolated Official from NHC. Wow. Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15248

2458. MiamiHurricanes09 1:04 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting Stormchaser2007: Cokes just as good lol Lol. Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

2459. Drakoen 1:05 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
It seems the new BAMM see this gaining more latutide up to 16N and as a result get into some sheear at the end of the forecast period. TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 34 41 47 60 70 75 76 73 68 63 57 V (KT) LAND 25 29 34 41 47 60 70 75 76 73 68 63 57 V (KT) LGE mod 25 28 31 34 38 48 58 67 70 69 66 60 53 SHEAR (KT) 8 6 8 2 6 8 7 12 14 19 27 31 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 3 1 -1 -3 3 2 -2 -1 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 125 107 71 119 24 46 187 202 213 238 233 262 248 SST (C) 28.5 28.4 28.2 28.0 27.8 27.5 27.3 27.3 27.7 27.9 28.0 28.2 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 144 143 140 137 134 131 129 129 134 137 138 139 140 ADJ. POT. INT. 150 150 146 141 137 133 130 129 134 138 136 134 131 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.3 -53.1 -52.1 -52.9 -53.4 -53.1 -53.4 -53.2 -53.4 -53.4 -53.6 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 9 10 700-500 MB RH 78 76 74 76 75 72 72 62 60 60 53 49 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 8 8 9 10 9 9 7 7 6 5 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 37 33 25 22 24 16 9 -10 -17 -17 -18 -8 -11 200 MB DIV 105 99 116 150 136 136 115 71 27 -6 2 -8 -5 LAND (KM) 1346 1325 1293 1285 1289 1346 1370 1267 1197 1115 1066 1001 915 LAT (DEG N) 6.4 6.8 7.2 7.7 8.1 9.1 10.4 11.7 12.9 13.9 14.8 15.5 16.2 LONG(DEG W) 31.9 33.1 34.2 35.3 36.3 38.3 40.5 42.7 45.1 47.8 50.9 53.1 54.6 STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 11 11 12 13 13 14 15 13 10 7 HEAT CONTENT 55 43 36 36 35 31 21 22 33 42 53 63 61 Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010

2461. MiamiHurricanes09 1:05 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting SiestaKeySam: Good heavens, child, you better, your under-age, :0. LOL! Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

2462. JLPR2 1:05 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting NOVArules: To be honest, I hate the taste of beer. And the wave seems to be consolidating as time goes on Me too, but that doesn't mean I cant drink something else >:3 Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 7487

2463. eye 1:05 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
Mr. Shear is waiting in the Carribean... Member Since: August 21, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 147

2464. Cavin Rawlins 1:06 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
Outflow Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076

2465. Mikla 1:06 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
So, please add or correct: SSTs: 28-29 C Moisture: Appears to be plenty, no SAL or dry air Circulation: Appears to be building quickly, does not appear closed Shear: Marginal, 5-20Knots - appears to be headed towards higher shear (10-30) Steering Currents: I think it is still a little early to say it won't trend more northward. I would guess that NHC won't make this a TD until tomorrow morning or maybe afternoon (to meet the persistance requirement), but it will probably be red by morning. The question is what is the shear going to do over the next few days and the next 24 hours should give some better indication whether it will track WNW or more northward. Just my thoughts... Member Since: October 13, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 201

2466. MiamiHurricanes09 1:06 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting Drakoen: It seems the new BAMM see this gaining more latutide up to 16N and as a result get into some sheear at the end of the forecast period. TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 34 41 47 60 70 75 76 73 68 63 57 V (KT) LAND 25 29 34 41 47 60 70 75 76 73 68 63 57 V (KT) LGE mod 25 28 31 34 38 48 58 67 70 69 66 60 53 SHEAR (KT) 8 6 8 2 6 8 7 12 14 19 27 31 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 3 1 -1 -3 3 2 -2 -1 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 125 107 71 119 24 46 187 202 213 238 233 262 248 SST (C) 28.5 28.4 28.2 28.0 27.8 27.5 27.3 27.3 27.7 27.9 28.0 28.2 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 144 143 140 137 134 131 129 129 134 137 138 139 140 ADJ. POT. INT. 150 150 146 141 137 133 130 129 134 138 136 134 131 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.3 -53.1 -52.1 -52.9 -53.4 -53.1 -53.4 -53.2 -53.4 -53.4 -53.6 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 9 10 700-500 MB RH 78 76 74 76 75 72 72 62 60 60 53 49 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 8 8 9 10 9 9 7 7 6 5 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 37 33 25 22 24 16 9 -10 -17 -17 -18 -8 -11 200 MB DIV 105 99 116 150 136 136 115 71 27 -6 2 -8 -5 LAND (KM) 1346 1325 1293 1285 1289 1346 1370 1267 1197 1115 1066 1001 915 LAT (DEG N) 6.4 6.8 7.2 7.7 8.1 9.1 10.4 11.7 12.9 13.9 14.8 15.5 16.2 LONG(DEG W) 31.9 33.1 34.2 35.3 36.3 38.3 40.5 42.7 45.1 47.8 50.9 53.1 54.6 STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 11 11 12 13 13 14 15 13 10 7 HEAT CONTENT 55 43 36 36 35 31 21 22 33 42 53 63 61 Shear shouldn't be a problem until about 84 hours, by that time it could be a strong tropical storm. Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

2467. hurricane23 1:06 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
This is wild for june... Wave seems to have improved its satellite appearance steadily throughout the day. Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13277

2468. NOVArules 1:06 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
Member Since: August 26, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 178

2469. Stormchaser2007 1:07 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
Dis cant be right.... Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15248

2470. Cavin Rawlins 1:07 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting Snowlover123: Thanks. The shear doesn't look too fast... or am I wishcasting? -Snowlover123 Not too bad where the system is Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076

2471. leo305 1:07 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09: Shear shouldn't be a problem until about 84 hours, by that time it could be a strong tropical storm. 84 hours is enough time for this to be more than just that Member Since: April 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1752

2473. gator23 1:07 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting eye: Mr. Shear is waiting in the Csrribean... so is Mr. Scissorhands Member Since: August 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1994

2474. nrtiwlnvragn 1:08 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
2459. Drakoen Thats not BAMM track but OFCI. Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 8943

2475. MiamiHurricanes09 1:08 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting Stormchaser2007: Dis cant be right.... I disagree with that. If the system can stay below 15˚N it should have no problems exceeding the 50 knot threshold. Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

2476. MrstormX 1:08 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
GFDL Makes 92L a CAT 1 Hurricane. Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4233

2478. Drakoen 1:08 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
New BAMM models: Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010

2479. MiamiHurricanes09 1:08 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn: 2459. Drakoen Thats not BAMM track but OFCI. So it's a TD? Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

2480. WaterWitch11 1:09 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
please can someone state in english what's the shear going to be like for the projected path of 92L. thanks Member Since: August 11, 2008 Posts: 3 Comments: 1266

2481. Drakoen 1:09 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn: 2459. Drakoen Thats not BAMM track but OFCI. My bad you are correct. If it took the actual BAMM track it would avoid the bulk of the shear... Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010

2482. Stormchaser2007 1:09 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn: 2459. Drakoen Thats not BAMM track but OFCI. Doesnt that mean that they're close to classifying it? Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15248

2484. MrstormX 1:10 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
HWRF Gives it a peak pressure of 988mb Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4233

2485. MiamiHurricanes09 1:10 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting MrstormX: GFDL Makes 92L a CAT 1* Hurricane.* That seems reasonable. Why? After it passes north of that band of shear it should have no problems re-intensifying. Now, category 1 strength does seem overdone though. Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

2486. Drakoen 1:10 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting Stormchaser2007: Dis cant be right.... That is crazy.. Very high precentage for this thing becommming a TS Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010

2487. nrtiwlnvragn 1:10 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09: So it's a TD? No, NHC just did a track forecast which held intensity at 25 knots, or in other words they did not do an intensity forecast yet. Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 8943

2488. MiamiHurricanes09 1:10 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting Drakoen: New BAMM models: I'm still sticking with the BAMM. Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

2489. Stormchaser2007 1:10 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09: I disagree with that. If the system can stay below 15˚N it should have no problems exceeding the 50 knot threshold. Thats the probability of RI by 40 knots. Thats pretty darn high. Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15248

2490. MiamiHurricanes09 1:11 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn: No, NHC just did a track forecast which held intensity at 25 knots, or in other words they did not do an intensity forecast yet. Oh I see. Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

2491. HaboobsRsweet 1:11 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting WaterWitch11: please can someone state in english what's the shear going to be like for the projected path of 92L. thanks Depends on the track. If it moves north it will hit more shear. It is stays south of roughly 15N or probably more like 13N then it has a better chance to live. Member Since: May 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1640

2492. Stormchaser2007 1:11 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting Drakoen: That is crazy.. Very high precentage for this thing becommming a TS That the RI index. Unless I captured the wrong thing. Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15248

2493. MiamiHurricanes09 1:12 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting Stormchaser2007: Thats the probability of RI by 40 knots. Thats pretty darn high. RI? Sorry, don't know what RI is. Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

2494. IKE 1:12 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting MrstormX: GFDL Makes 92L a CAT 1* Hurricane.* At 1000mb's? That frame seems to be off compared to the others on the run. Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

2495. Cavin Rawlins 1:13 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
I think TD 1 is developing...let hold till 2mr morning and see Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076

2496. Mikla 1:13 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
Depends on how it tracks. If it stays on a more westerly track, shear should be fine for development for at least a couple of days. If it starts to move northward, it will probably get into 20-30kt shear in another day or two. Quoting WaterWitch11: please can someone state in english what's the shear going to be like for the projected path of 92L. thanks Member Since: October 13, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 201

2497. Stormchaser2007 1:13 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09: RI? Sorry, don't know what RI is. Rapid intensification. Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15248

2498. MiamiHurricanes09 1:13 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting Weather456: I think TD 1 is developing...let hold till 2mr morning and see I agree. Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

2499. CybrTeddy 1:13 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting Stormchaser2007: Dis cant be right.... Thats insane.. heck I think this entire hurricane seasons going to be insane so this should be pretty normal this year. A 64% potential for a 30 knot rapid intensification is insane for a CV Invest in June. Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 253 Comments: 20276

2500. Drakoen 1:13 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting Stormchaser2007: That the RI index. Unless I captured the wrong thing. Right that probabilty for a 25 knot increase is 74% which would place this at TS strength Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010

2501. KoritheMan 1:13 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09: RI? Sorry, don't know what RI is. Rapid intensification. Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 411 Comments: 15473

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