Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Floods kill 16 in Arkansas; dozens missing

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:24 PM GMT on June 11, 2010

Heavy rains in excess of seven inches fell over southwestern Arkansas overnight, triggering flash floods that killed at least sixteen people in Caddo Gap, in the rugged Ouachita Mountains. Forty people are missing, with dozens injured. The closest weather station to the disaster is Mount Ida, which recorded 7.16" of rain over the past 48 hours. The USGS is reporting that the Caddo River in Caddo Gap rose from 8.4 feet at 3am CDT to 25.39 feet in just five hours, reaching the 2nd highest flood height on the river since records began in 1989. The Little Missouri River west of Caddo Gap rose 20 feet overnight, from 3 feet to 23.5 feet. The previous highest flood in the 22-year record at this location was just 14.66 feet, set in 2008. You can look at local rainfall amounts and river flood levels in the region using our wundermap with the "USGS River" layer turned on.

Andy Revkin at the New York Times has a blog worth reading on the disaster.

Figure 1. Radar estimated rainfall for June 9 - 11 over Southwest Arkansas. Rainfall amounts in excess of eight inches are indicated for Caddo Gap, where today's flood disaster occurred.

Oil spill update
Southeast to south winds of 10 - 15 knots will blow today through Saturday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. These winds will keep oil near the shores of Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi, and the extreme western Florida Panhandle, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The winds become light an variable Sunday through Tuesday, which will result in little movement of the spill. The long range 8 - 16 day forecast from the GFS model indicates a continued regime of light winds, mostly out of the south or southeast. This wind regime will likely push oil onto sections of the eastern Louisiana coast during the period 1 - 2 weeks from now.

Figure 2. The oil spill as imaged on June 10, 2010, by NASA's Aqua satellite.

Oil spill resources
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
NOAA's fact sheet on Hurricanes and the Oil Spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
Oil trajectory forecasts from NOAA
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

The tropical Atlantic is quiet right now, with no models predicting tropical cyclone development over the next seven days. I'll have a new post either Saturday or Monday.

Jeff Masters

Wicked sky (vanpet)

Storm front pushing through jacksonville Arkansas!

flash flood russellville arkansas friday june 11th 2010 (yfoog)

flash flood russellville arkansas friday june 11th 2010

Categories: Flood

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2952. kuppenskup 2:42 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09: Absolutely not. Convection continues to explode, I see absolutely no waning. Do you see sheer affecting this down the line at all? Member Since: August 26, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 404

2953. xcool 2:43 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
by Tropical Atlantic Headquarters Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15526

2954. FloridaTigers 2:43 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting SiestaKeySam: guys, plz remember that storm does not do more than one synopsis a day, right storm? :). How would you know that, aren't you new or something Member Since: May 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 559

2955. CaicosRetiredSailor 2:43 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
Thanks Levi... I appreciate your analysis. Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5250

2956. CyclonicVoyage 2:44 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
Big TUTT building down @ the mouth of the Caribbean will likely be 92L's demise, or whatever it is by then. Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259

2957. Chicklit 2:44 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
I have a feeling 92L will still be around in the morning. Destin, It's developing by the hour...goodnight! Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 10380

2960. Jebekarue 2:45 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
anyone have a pre Ivan pic to post on here? tia Member Since: July 21, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 230

2961. JRRP 2:45 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting CyclonicVoyage: Big TUTT building down @ the mouth of the Caribbean will likely be 92L's demise, or whatever it is by then. i was thinking that Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4357

2962. Drakoen 2:46 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
92L is quite the monstrosity... Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29012

2963. Stormchaser2007 2:46 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
I think there should be a new record set some time tomorrow. Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15294

2964. mrsalagranny 2:47 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE: INV/92/L MARK 7.1N/33.4W Boy the convection is firing up isnt it.I guess thats what all the white clouds are popping up. Member Since: June 6, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 756

2965. TampaSpin 2:47 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
Here are the BAM Models..... Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 176 Comments: 19767

2966. leo305 2:47 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting JRRP: i wonder if the TROF (25n 50w) will affect 92L that trough will push it to the NW and some models even suggest a turn to the NNE later on.. but ofcourse it will move west back again.. Member Since: April 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1752

2967. Levi32 2:47 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
I am quite frankly stunned and amazed at what has happened to the ITCZ during the course of a day. What we're seeing on satellite pics right now is really incredible for June. 24 hours ago: 12 hours ago: Current: Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 593 Comments: 25604

2968. MiamiHurricanes09 2:47 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting StormW: Yes...I intend on posting a synopsis in the morning. Great. I'm looking forward to it. Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 20002

2969. xcool 2:47 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
big wake- up call. get ready for what's come.& have hurricane plans . Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15526

2970. CaneWarning 2:48 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
Wow, I ignore the tropics all day and we get 92L. It's almost 11 PM and its 86 degrees in Tampa. I'm going for a walk while it's "cool" out. Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667

2971. MiamiHurricanes09 2:48 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting kuppenskup: Do you see sheer affecting this down the line at all? If it moves northward into a band of shear located around 15˚N shear will affect it. For a more in-depth look just check out my blog. Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 20002

2972. MiamiHurricanes09 2:49 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 20002

2973. MrstormX 2:49 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting Jebekarue: anyone have a pre Ivan pic to post on here? tia Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4312

2974. aquak9 2:49 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
2967- levi, that really puts it into a frightening perspective...now add another 24 hours of development to THAT Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25036

2975. kuppenskup 2:49 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting Drakoen: 92L is quite the monstrosity... It's a pretty big system also Member Since: August 26, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 404

2976. xcool 2:50 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
CaneWarning Can't Turn Back tropical haha Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15526

2977. TampaSpin 2:50 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
EVery model known to man..... Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 176 Comments: 19767

2978. xcool 2:50 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
TampaSpin guess whats. Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15526

2979. CybrTeddy 2:50 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
Miami09, mail. Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 255 Comments: 20632

2980. ackee 2:51 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
92L will be TD#1 by 5am and TS by monday my thinking longer takes to develops windard island more at risk if reach TD by tommrow leeward island or north of carrbbean Member Since: July 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1196

2981. kuppenskup 2:51 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting TampaSpin: EVery model known to man..... More models there than I have socks & underware combined! Member Since: August 26, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 404

2982. CaneWarning 2:51 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
It looks like 92L could become TS Alex according to some of the intensity models I'm looking at. Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667

2983. leo305 2:52 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09: it should curve a bit to the north once it reaches that band of shear, and the trough up to the north should also gravitate it northwards, then it should move back to the WNW, and eventually almost due west.. the scary part is what strength will it be when it reaches that band of shear Member Since: April 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1752

2984. centex 2:52 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting nocaneindy: Just shows that climatology is just as good as the conditions warrent, imo. Weather recognizes no calender or historical input, and is why I love it so!! Just shows how no matter what some will hype. I would not note minor climatology issues but when it's off the board it must be considered. Member Since: August 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 2876

2985. MiamiHurricanes09 2:52 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting Levi32: I am quite frankly stunned and amazed at what has happened to the ITCZ during the course of a day. What we're seeing on satellite pics right now is really incredible for June. 24 hours ago: 12 hours ago: Current: Amazing! Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 20002

2986. NCHurricane2009 2:53 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
92L, wowowowowowowwww! What really concerns me is how early this is occurring in the game (if this was in the western Caribbean, wouldn't be as interesting), tropical cyclone this far east in June. Another sign of an active season ahead. Anyone know if the Caribbean TUTT for invest 92-L will lift out, or will the 200 mb anticyclone expanded westward beyond 50W? Does the strength of this 200 mb anticyclone also depend on if the system develops (stronger system means more anticyclone, weak system means weaker anticyclone) Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 302 Comments: 3389

2987. islandblow 2:53 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
So here we go again! Another year and an early ball rolling across the bowling alley. Seems like a clear path to the middle of the Lesser Antilles....it does not look like much of an obstacle course, but who knows what will rear its head...shear,pressure shifts etc....yet so big it looks like it could barge through. Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 57

2988. Ossqss 2:53 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting Levi32: I am quite frankly stunned and amazed at what has happened to the ITCZ during the course of a day. What we're seeing on satellite pics right now is really incredible for June. 24 hours ago: 12 hours ago: Current: Makes ya wonder if we have a new equator, frankly....... Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8154

2989. gulfbreeze 2:54 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
In the past storms have had a hard time in the s/e Caribbean. Why is that and will 92L have the same problem? Member Since: June 13, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 625

2990. MiamiHurricanes09 2:54 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting leo305: it should curve a bit to the north once it reaches that band of shear, and the trough up to the north should also gravitate it northwards, then it should move back to the WNW, and eventually almost due west.. the scary part is what strength will it be when it reaches that band of shear I'm not so sold that there is a band of shear there. The CIMSS map shows shear while this one doesn't. Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 20002

2991. xcool 2:54 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
can we give credit to cmc model? Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15526

2992. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 2:54 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
INV INV/92/L MARK 7.2N/33.5W Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 147 Comments: 41318

2993. Twinkster 2:55 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
anybody have satellite imagery of pre-hurricane bill from last year Member Since: June 7, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 932

2994. PcolaDan 2:55 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting xcool: can we give credit to cmc model? Not with the economy as bad as it is. They need a better score. ;) Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6008

2995. TampaSpin 2:55 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
I believe when the MOdels get a couple of runs under them....a further WEsterly track will result into the Caribbean...IMO Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 176 Comments: 19767

2996. CyclonicVoyage 2:55 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
You would think, with all this hoopla that there would be a floater on it at least. Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259

2997. MrstormX 2:55 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting xcool: can we give credit to cmc model? Some, but it did go overboard a bit. Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4312

2998. MiamiHurricanes09 2:55 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE: INV INV/92/L MARK 7.2N/33.5W Just when I think convection is going to wane it just continues to pop. Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 20002

2999. MiamiHurricanes09 2:56 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting CyclonicVoyage: You would think, with all this hoopla that there would be a floater on it at least. Too far east. Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 20002

3000. kuppenskup 2:56 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
I think the only chance 92L has of maintaining and developing long term is for it to slow in forward speed and let conditions subdue some in the Carib. Member Since: August 26, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 404

3001. reedzone 2:56 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
We might have a TD tomorrow sometime, wow.. June, not July nor August. This is incredible and a very good sign that we have a potentially active season upon us. Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7249

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